메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 18, Issue 5, 2004, Pages 1224-1232

Reliability of absolute and relative predictions of population persistence based on time series

Author keywords

Diffusion approximation; Endangered species; Extinction; Population viability analysis; Risk assessment; Time series

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION; ENDANGERED SPECIES; PERSISTENCE; RISK ASSESSMENT; TIME SERIES;

EID: 5344223453     PISSN: 08888892     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00285.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (17)

References (49)
  • 1
    • 0026615554 scopus 로고
    • Persistence-time models for use in viability analyses of vanishing species
    • Allen, E. J., J. M. Harris, and L. J. S. Allen. 1992. Persistence-time models for use in viability analyses of vanishing species. Journal of Theoretical Biology 155:33-53.
    • (1992) Journal of Theoretical Biology , vol.155 , pp. 33-53
    • Allen, E.J.1    Harris, J.M.2    Allen, L.J.S.3
  • 2
    • 0028981448 scopus 로고
    • On the nature of population extremes
    • Ariño, A., and S. L. Pimm. 1995. On the nature of population extremes. Evolutionary Ecology 9:429-433.
    • (1995) Evolutionary Ecology , vol.9 , pp. 429-433
    • Ariño, A.1    Pimm, S.L.2
  • 3
    • 0141567383 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population viability analysis: Past, present, future
    • S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Beissinger, S. R. 2002. Population viability analysis: past, present, future. Pages 5-17 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. 2002. Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (2002) 2002. Population Viability Analysis , pp. 5-17
    • Beissinger, S.R.1
  • 5
    • 0031872298 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management
    • Beissinger, S. R., and M. I. Westphal. 1998. On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. Journal of Wildlife Management 62:821-841.
    • (1998) Journal of Wildlife Management , vol.62 , pp. 821-841
    • Beissinger, S.R.1    Westphal, M.I.2
  • 6
    • 5344262885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How good are PVA models? Testing their predictions with experimental data on the brine shrimp
    • S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Belovsky, G. E., C. Mellison, C. Larson, and P. A. Van Zandt. 2002. How good are PVA models? Testing their predictions with experimental data on the brine shrimp. Pages 257-283 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (2002) Population Viability Analysis , pp. 257-283
    • Belovsky, G.E.1    Mellison, C.2    Larson, C.3    Van Zandt, P.A.4
  • 9
    • 0036188386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Critiques of PVA ask the wrong questions: Throwing the heuristic baby out with the bath water
    • Brook, B. W., M. A. Burgman, H. R. Akçakaya, J. J. O'Grady, and R. Frankham. 2002. Critiques of PVA ask the wrong questions: throwing the heuristic baby out with the bath water. Conservation Biology 16:262-263.
    • (2002) Conservation Biology , vol.16 , pp. 262-263
    • Brook, B.W.1    Burgman, M.A.2    Akçakaya, H.R.3    O'Grady, J.J.4    Frankham, R.5
  • 10
    • 0033168663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic classification rules for setting conservation priorities
    • Burgman, M. A., D. A. Keith, F. J. Rohlf, and C. R. Todd. 1999. Probabilistic classification rules for setting conservation priorities. Biological Conservation 89:227-231.
    • (1999) Biological Conservation , vol.89 , pp. 227-231
    • Burgman, M.A.1    Keith, D.A.2    Rohlf, F.J.3    Todd, C.R.4
  • 12
    • 0026015808 scopus 로고
    • Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species
    • Dennis, B., P. L. Munholland, and J. A. Scott. 1991. Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species. Ecological Monographs 6:115-143.
    • (1991) Ecological Monographs , vol.6 , pp. 115-143
    • Dennis, B.1    Munholland, P.L.2    Scott, J.A.3
  • 14
    • 0033385397 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variation thresholds for extinction and their implications for conservation strategies
    • Pagan, W. F., E. Meir, and J. Moore. 1999. Variation thresholds for extinction and their implications for conservation strategies. The American Naturalist 154:510-520.
    • (1999) The American Naturalist , vol.154 , pp. 510-520
    • Pagan, W.F.1    Meir, E.2    Moore, J.3
  • 15
    • 0033941514 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability?
    • Fieberg, J., and S. P. Ellner. 2000. When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability? Ecology 81:2040-2047.
    • (2000) Ecology , vol.81 , pp. 2040-2047
    • Fieberg, J.1    Ellner, S.P.2
  • 16
    • 0028179780 scopus 로고
    • Predicting extinction times from environmental stochasticity and carrying capacity
    • Foley, P. 1994. Predicting extinction times from environmental stochasticity and carrying capacity. Conservation Biology 8:124-137.
    • (1994) Conservation Biology , vol.8 , pp. 124-137
    • Foley, P.1
  • 17
    • 0032877352 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A quantitative approach to endangered species act classification of long-lived vertebrates: Application to the North Pacific humpback whale
    • Gerber, L. R., and D. P. DeMaster. 1999. A quantitative approach to endangered species act classification of long-lived vertebrates: application to the North Pacific humpback whale. Conservation Biology 13:1203-1214.
    • (1999) Conservation Biology , vol.13 , pp. 1203-1214
    • Gerber, L.R.1    DeMaster, D.P.2
  • 18
    • 0034616618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extinction risk of a density-dependent population estimated from a time series of population size
    • Hakoyama, H., and Y. Iwasa. 2000. Extinction risk of a density-dependent population estimated from a time series of population size. Journal of Theoretical Biology 204:337-359.
    • (2000) Journal of Theoretical Biology , vol.204 , pp. 337-359
    • Hakoyama, H.1    Iwasa, Y.2
  • 19
    • 0028974340 scopus 로고
    • Population viability estimates: Theory and practice for a wild gorilla population
    • Harcourt, A. H. 1995. Population viability estimates: theory and practice for a wild gorilla population. Conservation Biology 9:134-142.
    • (1995) Conservation Biology , vol.9 , pp. 134-142
    • Harcourt, A.H.1
  • 21
    • 0003522670 scopus 로고
    • IUCN Species Survival Commission, Gland, Switzerland
    • IUCN (World Conservation Union). 1994. IUCN Red List categories. IUCN Species Survival Commission, Gland, Switzerland.
    • (1994) IUCN Red List Categories
  • 22
    • 0034034922 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity analysis of decision rules in World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List criteria using Australian plants
    • Keith, D. A., T. D. Auld, M. K. J. Ooi, and B. D. E. Mackenzie. 2000. Sensitivity analysis of decision rules in World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List criteria using Australian plants. Biological Conservation 94:311-319.
    • (2000) Biological Conservation , vol.94 , pp. 311-319
    • Keith, D.A.1    Auld, T.D.2    Ooi, M.K.J.3    Mackenzie, B.D.E.4
  • 23
    • 0032897723 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction?
    • Ludwig, D. 1999. Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction? Ecology 80:298-310.
    • (1999) Ecology , vol.80 , pp. 298-310
    • Ludwig, D.1
  • 25
    • 0026282754 scopus 로고
    • Assessing extinction threats: Towards a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories
    • Mace, G., and R. Lande. 1991. Assessing extinction threats: towards a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories. Conservation Biology 5:148-157.
    • (1991) Conservation Biology , vol.5 , pp. 148-157
    • Mace, G.1    Lande, R.2
  • 27
    • 0345448778 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis
    • McCarthy, M. A., S. J. Andelman, and H. P. Possingham. 2003. Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis. Conservation Biology 17:982-989.
    • (2003) Conservation Biology , vol.17 , pp. 982-989
    • McCarthy, M.A.1    Andelman, S.J.2    Possingham, H.P.3
  • 28
    • 0034035822 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Will observation error and biases ruin the use of simple extinction models?
    • Meir E., and W. F. Pagan. 2000. Will observation error and biases ruin the use of simple extinction models? Conservation Biology 14:148-154.
    • (2000) Conservation Biology , vol.14 , pp. 148-154
    • Meir, E.1    Pagan, W.F.2
  • 29
    • 0030616830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population persistence time: Estimates, models, and mechanisms
    • Middleton, D. A. J., and R. M. Nisbet. 1997. Population persistence time: estimates, models, and mechanisms. Ecological Applications 7:107-117.
    • (1997) Ecological Applications , vol.7 , pp. 107-117
    • Middleton, D.A.J.1    Nisbet, R.M.2
  • 30
    • 0031666015 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term dynamics in a metapopulation of the American pika
    • Moilanen, A., A. T. Smith, and I. Hanski. 1998. Long-term dynamics in a metapopulation of the American pika. The American Naturalist 152:530-542.
    • (1998) The American Naturalist , vol.152 , pp. 530-542
    • Moilanen, A.1    Smith, A.T.2    Hanski, I.3
  • 31
    • 0242668853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population viability analysis in endangered species recovery plans: Past use and future improvements
    • Morris, W. F., P. L. Bloch, B. R. Hudgens, L. C. Moyle, and J. R. Stinchcombe. 2002. Population viability analysis in endangered species recovery plans: past use and future improvements. Ecological Applications 12:708-712.
    • (2002) Ecological Applications , vol.12 , pp. 708-712
    • Morris, W.F.1    Bloch, P.L.2    Hudgens, B.R.3    Moyle, L.C.4    Stinchcombe, J.R.5
  • 33
    • 0003976940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College, London
    • NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College. 1999. The Global Population Dynamics Database. NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College, London. Available from http://www.sw.ic. ac.uk/cpb/cpb/gpdd.html (accessed February 2004).
    • (1999) The Global Population Dynamics Database
  • 34
    • 0030442018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing a criterion for delisting the southern sea otter under the US endangered species act
    • Ralls, K., D.P. De Master, and J. A. Estes. 1996. Developing a criterion for delisting the southern sea otter under the US endangered species act. Conservation Biology 10:1528-1537.
    • (1996) Conservation Biology , vol.10 , pp. 1528-1537
    • Ralls, K.1    De Master, D.P.2    Estes, J.A.3
  • 36
    • 0026277595 scopus 로고
    • Six biological reasons why the endangered species act doesn't work - And what to do about it
    • Rohlf, D. J. 1991. Six biological reasons why the endangered species act doesn't work - and what to do about it. Conservation Biology 5:273-282.
    • (1991) Conservation Biology , vol.5 , pp. 273-282
    • Rohlf, D.J.1
  • 37
    • 0031945365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Environmental stochasticity and extinction risk in a population of a small songbird, the great tit
    • Sæther, B. E., S. Engen, A. Islam, R. McCleery, and C. Perrins. 1998. Environmental stochasticity and extinction risk in a population of a small songbird, the great tit. The American Naturalist 151:441-450.
    • (1998) The American Naturalist , vol.151 , pp. 441-450
    • Sæther, B.E.1    Engen, S.2    Islam, A.3    McCleery, R.4    Perrins, C.5
  • 39
    • 0029109515 scopus 로고
    • Socioeconomics and the recovery of endangered species: Biological assessment in a political world
    • Scott, J. M., T. H. Tear, and L. S. Mills. 1995. Socioeconomics and the recovery of endangered species: biological assessment in a political world. Conservation Biology 9:214-216.
    • (1995) Conservation Biology , vol.9 , pp. 214-216
    • Scott, J.M.1    Tear, T.H.2    Mills, L.S.3
  • 40
    • 0008888296 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population viability analysis and conservation policy
    • S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Shaffer, M. L., L. H. Watchman, W J. Snape III, and I. K. Latchis. 2002. Population viability analysis and conservation policy. Pages 123-142 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (2002) Population Viability Analysis , pp. 123-142
    • Shaffer, M.L.1    Watchman, L.H.2    Snape III, W.J.3    Latchis, I.K.4
  • 41
    • 0034789286 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing classification criteria under the US Endangered Species Act: Bowhead whales as a case study
    • Shelden, K. E. W., D. P. DeMaster, D. J. Rugh, and A. M. Olson. 2001. Developing classification criteria under the US Endangered Species Act: Bowhead whales as a case study. Conservation Biology 15:1300-1307.
    • (2001) Conservation Biology , vol.15 , pp. 1300-1307
    • Shelden, K.E.W.1    DeMaster, D.P.2    Rugh, D.J.3    Olson, A.M.4
  • 42
    • 0028978833 scopus 로고
    • The reliability of using population viability analysis for risk classification of species
    • Taylor, B. L. 1995. The reliability of using population viability analysis for risk classification of species. Conservation Biology 9:551-558.
    • (1995) Conservation Biology , vol.9 , pp. 551-558
    • Taylor, B.L.1
  • 43
    • 5344240071 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Incorporating uncertainty in population viability analyses for the purpose of classifying species by risk
    • S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Taylor, B. L., P. R. Wade, U. Ramakrishnan, M. Gilpin, and H. R. Akçakaya. 2002. Incorporating uncertainty in population viability analyses for the purpose of classifying species by risk. Pages 239-252 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (2002) Population Viability Analysis , pp. 239-252
    • Taylor, B.L.1    Wade, P.R.2    Ramakrishnan, U.3    Gilpin, M.4    Akçakaya, H.R.5
  • 46
    • 0032467374 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the interpretation and application of mean times to extinction
    • Vucetich, J. A., and T. A. Waite. 1998a. On the interpretation and application of mean times to extinction. Biodiversity and Conservation 7:1539-1547.
    • (1998) Biodiversity and Conservation , vol.7 , pp. 1539-1547
    • Vucetich, J.A.1    Waite, T.A.2
  • 47
    • 0031719852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Number of censuses required for demographic estimation of effective population size
    • Vucetich, J. A., and T. A. Waite. 1998b. Number of censuses required for demographic estimation of effective population size. Conservation Biology 12:1023-1030.
    • (1998) Conservation Biology , vol.12 , pp. 1023-1030
    • Vucetich, J.A.1    Waite, T.A.2
  • 48
    • 0032807682 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the interpretation and application of mean extinction times
    • Volume 7, pp. 1539-1547 [Erratum]
    • Vucetich, J. A., and T. A. Waite. 1999. On the interpretation and application of mean extinction times (Volume 7, pp. 1539-1547 [Erratum]). Biodiversity and Conservation 8:1005.
    • (1999) Biodiversity and Conservation , vol.8 , pp. 1005
    • Vucetich, J.A.1    Waite, T.A.2
  • 49
    • 0036707158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do life history traits affect the accuracy of diffusion approximations for mean time to extinction?
    • Wilcox, C., and H. Possingham. 2002. Do life history traits affect the accuracy of diffusion approximations for mean time to extinction? Ecological Applications 12:1163-1179.
    • (2002) Ecological Applications , vol.12 , pp. 1163-1179
    • Wilcox, C.1    Possingham, H.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.