Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling

Volumn 5, Issue , 2008, Pages

  Nishiura, Hiroshi ^a   Brockmann, Stefan O ^b,d   Eichner, Martin ^c  

^a UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b Baden Wurttemberg State Health Office   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TÜBINGEN   (Germany)

^d ROBERT KOCH INSTITUTE   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGE; BEHAVIOR CHANGE; CASE STUDY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; FATALITY; FEVER; HISTORY; IMMUNITY; INCUBATION TIME; INFECTION CONTROL; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MEDICAL DOCUMENTATION; PATHOGENICITY; PUBLIC HEALTH; RASH; REVIEW; SMALLPOX; SMALLPOX VIRUS; VACCINATION; VIRUS VIRULENCE; ANIMAL; BIOLOGICAL WARFARE; EPIDEMIC; EUROPE; HUMAN; STATISTICS; UNITED STATES;

VARIOLA VIRUS;

SMALLPOX VACCINE;

ANIMALS; BIOTERRORISM; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EUROPE; HISTORIOGRAPHY; HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 21ST CENTURY; HUMANS; SMALLPOX; SMALLPOX VACCINE; UNITED STATES;

EID: 51849119215     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17424682     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1742-4682-5-20     Document Type: Review

References (120)

1. F Fenner DA Henderson I Arita ID Ladnyi, Smallpox and its eradication Geneva: World Health Organization 1988
2. M Greenwood, Epidemics and Crowd Diseases. An Introduction to the Study of Epidemiology New York: Macmillan 1935 (reprinted in 1977 by Arno Press, New York)
3. Smallpox as a biological weapon: medical and public health management. Working Group on Civilian Biodefense. DA Henderson TV Inglesby JG Bartlett MS Ascher E Eitzen PB Jahrling J Hauer M Layton J McDade MT Osterholm T O'Toole G Parker T Perl PK Russell K Tonat, JAMA 1999 281 2127 2137 10.1001/jama.281.22. 2127 10367824
4. An integral equation model for the control of a smallpox outbreak. GK Aldis MG Roberts, Math Biosci 2005 195 1 22 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.01.006 15922002
5. Individual-based computational modeling of smallpox epidemic control strategies. DS Burke JM Epstein DA Cummings JI Parker KC Cline RM Singa S Chakravarty, Acad Emerg Med 2006 13 1142 1149 17085740
6. Case isolation and contact tracing can prevent the spread of smallpox. M Eichner, Am J Epidemiol 2003 158 118 128 10.1093/aje/kwg104 12851224
7. Planning for smallpox outbreaks. NM Ferguson MJ Keeling WJ Edmunds R Gani BT Grenfell RM Anderson S Leach, Nature 2003 425 681 685 10.1038/nature02007 14562094
8. Evaluating public health responses to reintroduced smallpox via dynamic, socially structured, and spatially distributed metapopulation models. J Glasser SO Foster JD Millar JM Lane, Clin Infect Dis 2008 46 suppl 3 S182 S194 10.1086/524382 18284358
9. Ring vaccination and smallpox control. M Kretzschmar S van den Hof J Wallinga J van Wijngaarden, Emerg Infect Dis 2004 10 832 841 15200816
10. Modelling responses to a smallpox epidemic taking into account uncertainty. J Legrand C Viboud PY Boelle AJ Valleron A Flahault, Epidemiol Infect 2004 132 19 25 10.1017/S0950268803001390 14979585
11. Containing a large bioterrorist smallpox attack: a computer simulation approach. IM Longini ME Halloran A Nizam Y Yang S Xu DS Burke DA Cummings JM Epstein, Int J Infect Dis 2007 11 98 108 10.1016/j.ijid.2006.03.002 16899385
12. Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon. MI Meltzer I Damon JW LeDuc JD Millar, Emerg Infect Dis 2001 7 959 969 11747722
13. Modeling for a smallpox-vaccination policy against possible bioterrorism in Japan: the impact of long-lasting vaccinal immunity. H Nishiura IM Tang, J Epidemiol 2004 14 41 50 10.2188/jea.14.41 15162977
14. Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain. S Riley NM Ferguson, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006 103 12637 12642 16894173 10.1073/pnas.0510873103
15. A new explanatory model of an SIR disease epidemic: a knowledge-based, probabilistic approach to epidemic analysis. BM Sayers J Angulo, Scand J Infect Dis 2005 37 55 60 10.1080/00365540410026077 15764191
16. Emergency response to a smallpox attack: the case for mass vaccination. EH Kaplan DL Craft LM Wein, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2002 99 10935 10940 12118122 10.1073/pnas.162282799
17. Containing bioterrorist smallpox. ME Halloran IM Longini A Nizam Y Yang, Science 2002 298 1428 1432 10.1126/science.1074674 12434061
18. Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak. M Eichner K Dietz, Am J Epidemiol 2003 158 110 117 10.1093/aje/kwg103 12851223
19. Poxy models and rash decisions. B Cooper, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006 103 12221 12222 16894142 10.1073/pnas.0605502103
20. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. C Fraser S Riley RM Anderson NM Ferguson, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2004 101 6146 6151 15071187 10.1073/pnas.0307506101
21. Epidemiological assessment of the protective effects of smallpox vaccination. H Nishiura I Arita M Schwehm M Eichner, Am J Infect Dis 2006 2 9 17
22. O Lentz HA Gins, Handbuch der Pockenbekämpfung und Impfung Berlin: Verlagsbuchhandlung von Richard Schoetz 1927 (in German)
23. History and practice of vaccination. J Simon, Public Health Rep 1887 1 167 317
24. The cause of the plague of Athens:plague, typhoid, typhus, smallpox, or measles? A Burke MD Cunha, Infect Dis Clin North Am 2004 18 29 43 10.1016/S0891-5520(03)00100-4 15081502
25. What caused the Black Death? CJ Duncan S Scott, Postgrad Med J 2005 81 315 320 10.1136/pgmj.2004.024075 15879045
26. CW Dixon, Smallpox London: Churchill 1962
27. AR Rao, Smallpox Bombay: Kothari Book Dept 1972
28. TF Ricketts JB Byles, The diagnosis of smallpox London: Cassell 1908
29. RH Regamey H Cohen, International symposium on smallpox vaccine. Symposia Series in Immunobiological Standardization Basel: Karger AS 1973 19
30. The origins of vaccinia virus. D Baxby, J Infect Dis 1977 136 453 455 198484
31. Variola minor in Braganca Paulista County, 1956: overall description of the epidemic and of its study. JJ Angulo, Int J Epidemiol 1976 5 359 366 10.1093/ije/5.4.359 1010665
32. Changes in type of infectious disease as shown by the history of smallpox in the United States, 1895-1912. CV Chapin, J Infect Dis 1926 13 171 196
33. The alastrim epidemic in The Hague, 1953-1954. M de Jong, Documenta de Medicina Geographica et Tropica 1956 8 207 235 13365528
34. Permanency of the mild type of smallpox. CV Chapin J Smith, J Prev Med 1932 6 273 320
35. The pathogenicity of variola virus. A comparison of the growth of standard strains of variola major and variola minor viruses in cell cultures from human embryos. KR Dumbell DG Wells, J Hyg (Lond) 1982 89 3 389 397 6296226
36. The virology of variola minor. Correlation of laboratory tests with the geographical distribution and human virulence of variola isolates. KR Dumbell F Huq, Am J Epidemiol 1986 123 403 415 3004200
37. Genome sequence diversity and clues to the evolution of variola (smallpox) virus. JJ Esposito SA Sammons AM Frace JD Osborne M Olsen-Rasmussen M Zhang D Govil IK Damon R Kline M Laker Y Li GL Smith H Meyer JW Leduc RM Wohlhueter, Science 2006 313 807 812 10.1126/science.1125134 16873609
38. On the origin of smallpox: correlating variola phylogenics with historical smallpox records. Y Li DS Carroll SN Gardner MC Walsh EA Vitalis IK Damon, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2007 104 15787 15792 17901212 10.1073/pnas. 0609268104
39. Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness. H Nishiura, Emerg Themes Epidemiol 2007 4 2 17466070 10.1186/1742-7622-4-2
40. Smallpox in Europe, 1950-1971. TM Mack, J Infect Dis 1972 125 161 169 5007552
41. SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free? VT Farewell AM Herzberg KW James LM Ho GM Leung, Stat Med 2005 24 3431 3435 10.1002/sim.2206 16237660
42. Determination of the appropriate quarantine period following smallpox exposure: an objective approach using the incubation period distribution. H Nishiura, Int J Hyg Environ Health 2008
43. NTJ Bailey, The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and Its Applications London: Charles Griffin 2 1975
44. Studies on the virus content of mouth washings in the acute phase of smallpox. AW Downie L St Vincent G Meiklejohn NR Ratnakannan AR Rao GN Krishnan CH Kempe, Bull World Health Organ 1961 25 49 53 13887636
45. Virus excretion in smallpox. 1. Excretion in the throat, urine, and conjunctiva of patients. JK Sakar AC Mitra MK Mukherjee SK De DG Mazumdar, Bull World Health Organ 1973 48 517 522 4359678
46. Infectiousness of smallpox relative to disease age: estimates based on transmission network and incubation period. H Nishiura M Eichner, Epidemiol Infect 2007 135 1145 1150 17156499
47. The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease. PE Fine, Am J Epidemiol 2003 158 1039 1047 10.1093/aje/kwg251 14630599
48. Epidemiology of a primary pneumonic plague in Kantoshu, Manchuria, from 1910 to 1911: statistical analysis of individual records collected by the Japanese Empire. H Nishiura, Int J Epidemiol 2006 35 1059 1065 10.1093/ije/dyl091 16684896
49. Transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague: time inhomogeneous evaluation based on historical documents of the transmission network. H Nishiura M Schwehm M Kakehashi M Eichner, J Epidemiol Community Health 2006 60 640 645 10.1136/jech.2005.042424 16790838
50. R Brookmeyer MH Gail, AIDS Epidemiology. A quantitative approach New York: Oxford University Press 1994
51. A different view of smallpox and vaccination. T Mack, N Engl J Med 2003 348 460 463 10.1056/NEJMsb022994 12496354
52. Case fatality ratios in smallpox. E Shafa, WHO Surveillance Epidemiology 1972 72 35
53. Daniel Bernoulli's epidemiological model revisited. K Dietz JA Heesterbeek, Math Biosci 2002 180 1 21 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00122-0 12387913
54. FW Barry, Report on an epidemic of small-pox at Sheffield, during 1887-88 London: Local Government Board 1889
55. W Rutten, De Vreselijkste Aller Harpijen. Pokkenepidemieen en pokkenbestrijding in Nederland in de achttiende en negentiende eeuw: een social-historische en historisch-demografische studie Wageningen, The Netherlands: Agricultural University Wageningen 1997 (in Dutch)
56. Pregnancy and smallpox. AR Rao I Prahlad M Swaminathan A Lakshmi, J Indian Med Assoc 1963 40 353 363 13973041
57. Smallpox during pregnancy and maternal outcomes. H Nishiura, Emerg Infect Dis 2006 12 1119 1121 16836830
58. Y Pawitan, All Likelihood: Statistical Modelling and Inference Using Likelihood Oxford: Oxford University Press 2001
59. JK Lindsey, Nonlinear Models for Medical Statistics Oxford: Oxford University Press 2 2001
60. A Gelman B Carlin H Stern DB Rubin, Bayesian Data Analysis Florida: Chapman and Hall/CRD 2 2003
61. O Diekmann JAP Heesterbeek, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation New York: Wiley 2000
62. The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases. K Dietz, Stat Methods Med Res 1993 2 23 41 10.1177/096228029300200103 8261248
63. An attempt at a new analysis of the mortality caused by smallpox and of the advantages of inoculation to prevent it. 1766. S Blower D Bernoulli, Rev Med Virol 2004 14 275 288 10.1002/rmv.443 15334536
64. The earliest notes on the reproduction number in relation to herd immunity: Theophil Lotz and smallpox vaccination. H Nishiura K Dietz M Eichner, J Theor Biol 2006 241 964 967 16875892
65. Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. JO Lloyd-Smith SJ Schreiber PE Kopp WM Getz, Nature 2005 438 355 359 10.1038/nature04153 16292310
66. Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations. R Gani S Leach, Nature 2001 414 748 751 10.1038/414748a 11742399
67. NG Becker, Analysis of Infectious Disease Data New York: Chapman and Hall 1989
68. Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. PE Fine, Epidemiol Rev 1993 15 265 302 8174658
69. World Health Assembly, Handbook of resolutions and decisions of the twelfth World Health Assembly and Executive Board. (12.54) Geneva: World Health Organization 1959
70. Directly transmitted infectious diseases: control by vaccination. RM Anderson RM May, Science 1982 215 1053 1060 10.1126/science.7063839 7063839
71. Factors in the transmission of virus infections from animal to man. CE Smith, Sci Basis Med Ann Rev 1964 125 150
72. Measures of the effects of vaccination in a randomly mixing population. M Haber IM Longini ME Halloran, Int J Epidemiol 1991 20 300 310 10.1093/ije/20.1.300 2066239
73. Direct and indirect effects in vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. ME Halloran M Haber IM Longini CJ Struchiner, Am J Epidemiol 1991 133 323 331 1899778
74. The statistics of anti-typhoid and anti-cholera inoculations, and the interpretation of such statistics in general. M Greenwood GU Yule, Proc R Soc Med 1915 8 113 194
75. Assessing vaccine efficacy in the field. Further observations. WA Orenstein, Epidemiol Rev 1988 10 212 241 3066628
76. The efficacy of pertussis vaccines under conditions of household exposure. Further analysis of the 1978-80 PHLS/ERL study in 21 area health authorities in England. PE Fine JA Clarkson E Miller, Int J Epidemiol 1988 17 635 642 10.1093/ije/17.3.635 3264824
77. On vaccine efficacy and reproduction numbers. CP Farrington, Math Biosci 2003 185 89 109 10.1016/S0025-5564(03)00061-0 12900143
78. Interpretation and estimation of vaccine efficacy under heterogeneity. ME Halloran M Haber IM Logini, Am J Epidemiol 1992 136 328 343 1415152
79. Epidemiological studies in smallpox. A study of intrafamilial transmission in a series of 254 infected families. AR Rao ES Jacob S Kamalakshi S Appaswamy Bradbury, Indian J Med Res 1968 56 1826 1854 5732451
80. Variola minor in Braganca Paulista County, 1956: household aggregation of the disease and the influence of household size on the attack rate. JJ Angulo SD Walter, J Hyg (Lond) 1979 82 1 1 6 762399
81. A study of intrafamilial transmission of smallpox. GG Heiner N Fatima FR McCrumb Jr, Am J Epidemiol 1971 94 316 326 5110548
82. Pattern of intrafamilial transmission of smallpox in Calcutta, India. MK Mukherjee JK Sarkar AC Mitra, Bull World Health Organ 1974 51 219 225 4376976
83. The effect of household distribution on transmission and control of highly infectious diseases. NG Becker K Dietz, Math Biosci 1995 127 207 219 10.1016/0025-5564(94)00055-5 7795319
84. Epidemics with two levels of mixing. F Ball D Mollison G Scalia-Tomba, Ann Appl Prob 1997 7 46 89 10.1214/aoap/1034625252
85. Who mixes with whom? A method to determine the contact patterns of adults that may lead to the spread of airborne infections. WJ Edmunds CJ O'Callaghan DJ Nokes, Proc Roy Soc B 1997 264 949 957 10.1098/rspb.1997.0131
86. AD Cliff P Haggett JK Ord GR Versey, Spatial Diffusion. An Historical Geography of Epidemics in and Island Community Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1981
87. An examination of the Reed-Frost theory of epidemics. H Abbey, Hum Biol 1952 24 201 233 12990130
88. Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: the case of the SARS epidemics. E Massad MN Burattini LF Lopez FA Coutinho, Med Hypotheses 2005 65 17 22 10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09.029 15893110
89. Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19. H Nishiura, Theor Biol Med Model 2007 4 20 17547753 10.1186/1742-4682-4-20
90. Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model. S Del Valle H Hethcote JM Hyman C Castillo-Chavez, Math Biosci 2005 195 228 251 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.03.006 15913667
91. The psychological impacts of bioterrorism. MJ Hall AE Norwood RJ Ursano CS Fullerton, Biosecurity Bioterrorism 2003 1 139 144 10.1089/153871303766275817
92. Duration of antiviral immunity after smallpox vaccination. E Hammarlund MW Lewis SG Hansen LI Strelow JA Nelson GJ Sexton JM Hanifin MK Slifka, Nature Med 2003 9 1131 1137 10.1038/nm917 12925846
93. Cutaneous responses to vaccinia in individuals with previous smallpox vaccination. EL Simpson M Hercher EK Hammarlund MW Lewis MK Slifka JM Hanifin, J Am Acad Dermatol 2007 57 442 444 10.1016/j.jaad.2007.04.022 17560685
94. Still protected against smallpox? Estimation of the duration of vaccine-induced immunity against smallpox. H Nishiura M Schwehm M Eichner, Epidemiology 2006 17 576 581 10.1097/01.ede.0000229196.41862.c2 16804475
95. Analysis of historical data suggests long-lasting protective effects of smallpox vaccination. M Eichner, Am J Epidemiol 2003 158 717 723 10.1093/aje/kwg225 14561660
96. Bioterrorism. Smallpox vaccinations: how much protection remains? J Cohen, Science 2001 294 985 10.1126/science.294.5544.985 11691969
97. Estimation of the duration of vaccine-induced residual protection against severe and fatal smallpox based on secondary vaccination failure. H Nishiura M Eichner, Infection 2006 34 241 246 10.1007/s15010-006-6603-5 17033746
98. Concepts of infectious disease epidemiology. ME Halloran, Modern Epidemiology New York: Lippincott Williams and Wilkins, Rothman KJ, Greenland S, 2 1998 529 554
99. Smallpox research. Part II. Findings based on 516 smallpox cases with special reference to hemorrhagic type and variola sine exanthemata. T Toyoda, Tokyo Med J 1923 2333 1 12 (in Japanese)
100. Selective epidemiological control in smallpox eradication. WH Foege JD Millar JM Lane, Am J Epidemiol 1971 94 311 315 5110547
101. Epidemiology in the global eradication of smallpox. DA Henderson, Am J Epidemiol 1972 1 25 30 10.1093/ije/1.1.25
102. Smallpox eradication in West and Central Africa. WH Foege JD Millar DA Henderson, Bull World Health Organ 1975 52 209 222 1083309
103. Smallpox eradication in West and Central Africa: surveillance-containment or herd immunity? EH Kaplan LM Wein, Epidemiology 2003 14 90 92 10.1097/00001648-200301000-00021 12500053
104. Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model. TC Porco KA Holbrook SE Fernyak DL Portnoy R Reiter TJ Aragon, BMC Public Health 2004 4 34 15298713 10.1186/1471-2458-4-34
105. Risks and benefits of preexposure and postexposure smallpox vaccination. MI Meltzer, Emerg Infect Dis 2003 9 1363 1370 14718077
106. Analysis of a previous smallpox vaccination study: estimation of the time period required to acquire vaccine-induced immunity as assessed by revaccination. H Nishiura, Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 2006 37 673 680 17121292
107. Can postexposure vaccination against smallpox succeed? PP Mortimer, Clin Infect Dis 2003 36 622 629 10.1086/374054 12594644
108. Smallpox. A vulnerable specter. M Eichner M Schwehm, Epidemiology 2004 15 258 261 10.1097/01.ede.0000121548.84183.04 15097002
109. Induction of human T cell-mediated immune responses after primary and secondary smallpox vaccination. JS Kennedy SE Frey L Yan AL Rothman J Cruz FK Newman L Orphin RB Belshe FA Ennis, J Infect Dis 2004 190 1286 1294 10.1086/423848 15346340
110. Effectiveness of postexposure vaccination for the prevention of smallpox: results of a Delphi analysis. MS Massoudi L Barker B Schwartz, J Infect Dis 2003 188 973 976 10.1086/378357 14513416
111. Interpreting the epidemiology of postexposure vaccination against smallpox. H Nishiura M Eichner, Int J Hyg Env Health 2008 211 219 226 10.1016/j.ijheh.2007.01.029
112. CK Millard, The vaccination question in the light of modern experience. An appeal for reconsideration London: H.K. Lewis 1914
113. Smallpox vaccination: a review, part II. Adverse events. VA Fulginiti A Papier JM Lane JM Neff DA Henderson, Clin Infect Dis 2003 37 251 271 10.1086/375825 12856218
114. Frequency of adverse events after vaccination with different vaccinia strains. M Kretzschmar J Wallinga P Teunis S Xing R Mikolajczyk, PLoS Med 2006 3 e272 16933957 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030272
115. Smallpox vaccine: contraindications, administration, and adverse reactions. DM Mauer B Harrington JM Lane, Am Fam Physician 2003 68 5 889 896 13678138
116. Variola major in West Pakistan. TM Mack DB Thomas MM Khan, J Infect Dis 1970 122 479 488 5489073
117. Epidemiology of smallpox in West Pakistan. II. Determinants of intravillage spread other than acquired immunity. TM Mack DB Thomas M Muzaffar Khan, Am J Epidemiol 1972 95 169 177 5060374
118. Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model. IM Hall JR Egan I Barrass R Gani S Leach, Epidemiol Infect 2007 135 1133 1144 17222358
119. The confirmation and maintenance of smallpox eradication. JG Breman I Arita, N Engl J Med 1980 303 1263 1273 6252467
120. Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy. CT Bauch AP Galvani DJ Earn, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2003 100 10564 10567 12920181 10.1073/pnas.1731324100