Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: A stochastic network model

BMC Public Health

Volumn 4, Issue , 2004, Pages

  Porco, Travis C ^a,b,c   Holbrook, Karen ^a   Fernyak, Susan E ^a   Portnoy, Diane ^a   Reiter, Randy ^a   Aragón, Tomás J ^a,b  

^a S Francisco Dept of Public Health   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c Division of Communicable Disease Control   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

VIRUS VACCINE; SMALLPOX VACCINE;

ARTICLE; AWARENESS; COMMUNITY; EXPOSURE; GENETIC HETEROGENEITY; HOUSEHOLD; MASS IMMUNIZATION; SIMULATION; SMALLPOX; SOCIAL BEHAVIOR; STOCHASTIC MODEL; SYMPTOM; VACCINATION; VIRUS INFECTION; VIRUS ISOLATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; WORKPLACE; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONTACT EXAMINATION; DEMOGRAPHY; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; FAMILY SIZE; HUMAN; PROBABILITY; PROCEDURES; SOCIAL SUPPORT; STATISTICS; TRANSMISSION;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONTACT TRACING; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; FAMILY CHARACTERISTICS; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; NEURAL NETWORKS (COMPUTER); PROBABILITY; RESIDENCE CHARACTERISTICS; SMALLPOX; SMALLPOX VACCINE; SOCIAL SUPPORT; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; VACCINATION; WORKPLACE;

EID: 4544356154     PISSN: 14712458     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-4-34     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Alibek K: Biohazard. New York: Random House; 1999.
2. Koopman J: Controlling smallpox. Science 2002, 298:1342-1344.
3. Henderson DA: The looming threat of bioterrorism. Science 1999, 283:1279-1282.
4. O'Toole T: Smallpox: an attack scenario. Emerging Infectious Diseases 1999, 5:540-546.
5. Foege WH, Millar JD, Lane JM: Selective epidemiologic control in smallpox eradication. American Journal of Epidemiology 1971, 94:311-315.
6. Kaplan EH, Wein LM: Smallpox eradication in West and Central Africa: surveillance-containment or herd immunity? Epidemiology 2003, 14:90-92.
7. Gani R, Leach S: Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations. Nature 2001, 414:748-751.
8. Meltzer MI, Damon I, LeDuc JW, Millar JD: Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2001, 7:959-969.
9. Kaplan EH, Craft DL, Wein LM: Emergency response to a smallpox attack: the case for mass vaccination. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 2002, 99:10935-10940.
10. Kaplan EH, Craft DL, Wein LM: Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of smallpox. Mathematical Biosciences 2003, 185:33-72.
11. Halloran ME, Longini IM, Nizam A, Yang Y: Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science 2002, 298:1428-1432.
12. Bozzette SA, Boer R, Bhatnagar V, Brower JL, Keeler EB, Morton SC, Stoto MA: A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy. New England Journal of Medicine 2003, 348:416-425.
13. Ferguson N, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, Gani R, Grenfell BT, Anderson RM, Leach S: Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 2003, 425:681-685.
14. Porco TC, Small PM, Blower SM: Amplification dynamics: predicting the erect of HIV on tuberculosis outbreaks. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2001, 28:437-444.
15. Eichner M: Case isolation and contact tracing can prevent the spread of smallpox. American Journal of Epidemiology 1971, 158:118-128.
16. Epstein JM, Cummings DAT, Chakravarty S, Singa RM, Burke DS: Toward a containment strategy for smallpox bioterror: an individual-based computational approach [http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/es/dynamics/papers/bioterrorism.pdf] Center on Social and Economic Dynamics Working Paper No. 31, 2002.
17. Dixon CW: Smallpox. London: J. & A. Churchill; 1962.
18. Massoudi MS, Barker L, Schwartz: Erectiveness of postexposure vaccination for the prevention of smallpox: results of a Delphi analysis. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2003, 188:973-976.
19. Mortimer PP: Can postexposure vaccination against smallpox succeed? Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2003, 36:622-629.
20. Bicknell WJ, James K: Smallpox vaccination after a bioterrorism-based exposure. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2003, 37:467.
21. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Interim smallpox response plan and guidelines, 2002.
22. Zetterberg B, Ringertz O, Svedmyr A, Wallmark G, Alin K: Epidemiology of smallpox in Stockholm 1963. Acta Medica Scandinavica, Supplementum 1966, 464:9-42.
23. Eichner M: Analysis of historical data suggests long-lasting protective erects of smallpox vaccination. American Journal of Epidemiology, 2003, 158:717-723.
24. Hsieh SM, Pan SC, Chen SY, Huang PF, Chang SC. Age distribution for T-cell reactivity to vaccinia virus in a healthy population. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2004, 38:86-89.
25. Benenson AS: Smallpox. In Communicable and infectious diseases. Edited by Top FH, Wehrle PF. St. Louis: C. V. Mosby; 1976:623-635.
26. Fenner F, Henderson DA, Arita I, Ježek Z, Ladnyi LD: Smallpox and its eradication. Geneva: World Health Organization, 1988.
27. Henderson DA, Inglesby TV, Bartlett JG, Ascher MS, Eitzen E, Jahrling PB, Hauer J, Layton M, McDade J, Osterholm MT, O'Toole T, Parker G, Perl T, Russell PK, Tonat K: Smallpox as a biological weapon. Medical and public health management. Journal of the American Medical Association 1999, 281:2127-2137.
28. Breman JG, Henderson DA: Diagnosis and management of smallpox. New England Journal of Medicine 2002, 346:1300-1308.
29. Vaccination Commission: Final Report of the Royal Commission appointed to inquire into the subject of Vaccination. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1896.
30. Thomas DB, McCormack WM, Arita I, Khan MM, Islam MS, Mack TM. Endemic smallpox in rural East Pakistan. I. Methodology, clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of cases, and intervillage transmission. American Journal of Epidemiology 1971, 93:361-372.
31. Rao AR. Smallpox. Bombay: Kothari Book Depot, 1972.
32. Rao AR, Jacob ES, Kamalakshi S, Appaswamy S, Bradbury: Epidemiological studies of smallpox. a study of intrafamilial transmission in a series of 254 infected families. Indian Journal of Medical Research 1968, 56:1826-1854.
33. Eichner M, Dietz K: Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak. American Journal of Epidemiology 1971, 158:110-117.
34. Heiner GG, Fatima N, McCrumb FR: A study of intrafamilial transmission of smallpox. American Journal of Epidemiology 1971, 94:316-326.
35. de Jongh CL: Over zeer lichte gevallen van pokken en hun beteekenis voor de verspreiding dezer ziekte. Nederlandsch Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde 1929, 73:5709-5719.
36. Litvinjenko S, Arsić B, Borjanović S: Epidemiologic aspects of smallpox in Yugoslavia in 1972. World Health Organization WHO/SE/73.57, 1973.
37. Mack TM, Thomas DB, Ali A, Khan MM: Epidemiology of smallpox in West Pakistan. I. Acquired immunity and distribution of the disease. American Journal of Epidemiology 1972, 95:157-168.
38. Thomas DB, Arita I, McCormack WM, Khan MM, Islam MS, Mack TM: Endemic smallpox in rural East Pakistan. II. Intravillage transmission and infectiousness. American Journal of Epidemiology 1971, 93:373-383.
39. Mack TM: Smallpox in Europe, 1950-1971. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1972, 125:161-169.
40. Watts D: Small worlds. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999.
41. Becker NG, Dietz K: The erect of household distribution on transmission and control of highly infectious diseases. Mathematical Biosciences 1995, 127:207-219.
42. Ball F, Mollison D, Scalia-Tomba G: Epidemics with two levels of mixing. Annals of Applied Probability 1997, 7:46-89.
43. Eisenberg JNS, Lewis BL, Porco TC, Hubbard AH, Colford JM: Bias due to secondary transmission in estimation of attributable risk from intervention trials. Epidemiology 2003, 14:442-450.
44. Iman RL, Helton JC, Campbell JE: An approach to sensitivity analysis of computer models: Part I - Introduction, input variable selection and preliminary variable assessment. Journal of Quality Technology 1981, 13:174-183.
45. Iman RL, Helton JC, Campbell JE: An approach to sensitivity analysis of computer models: Part II - Ranking of input variables, response surface validation, distribution erect, and technique synopsis variable assessment. Journal of Quality Technology 1981, 13:232-240.
46. Blower SM, Dowlatabadi H: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. International Statistical Review 1994, 62:229-243.
47. Mack TM, Thomas DB, Khan MM: Epidemiology of smallpox in West Pakistan. II. Determinants of intravillage spread other than acquired immunity. American Journal of Epidemiology 1972, 95:169-177.
48. Lloyd-Smith JO, Galvani AP, Getz WM: Curtailing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome within a community and its hospital. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, 2003, 270:1979-1989.
49. Meltzer MI: Risks and benefits of preexposure and postexposure smallpox vaccination. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2003, 9:1673-1670.
50. Dixon CW: Smallpox in Tripolitania, 1946: an epidemiological and clinical study of 500 cases, including trials of penicillin treatment. Journal of Hygiene (Cambridge) 1948, 46:351-377.
51. Chapin CV: Variation in type of infectious disease as shown by the history of smallpox in the United States, 1895-1912. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1913, 13:171-196.
52. Adams F: The epidemic of virulent smallpox in Windsor and the vicinity. Canadian Medical Association Journal 1924, 14:692-696.
53. Glasserman P, Yao DD: Monotone structure in discrete-event systems. New York: J. Wiley, 1994.
54. Henderson RH, Yekpe M: Smallpox transmission in southern Dahomey. American Journal of Epidemiology 1969, 90:423-428.
55. Aragón TJ, Ulrich S, Fernyak S, Rutherford GW: Risks of serious complications and death from smallpox vaccination: a systematic review of the United States experience, 1963-1968. BMC Public Health 2003, 3:26.
56. Blower SM, McLean AR: Prophylactic vaccines, risk behavior change, and the probability of eradicating HIV in San Francisco. Science 1994, 265:1451-1454.
57. Mardia KV, Kent JT, Bibby JM: Multivariate analysis. London: Academic Press, 1979.