Success breeds success? War outcomes, domestic opposition, and elections

Conflict Management and Peace Science

Volumn 25, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 136-151

  Arena, Philip ^a  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Accountability; Costs; Elections; Opposition; War

Indexed keywords

EID: 45949109474     PISSN: 07388942     EISSN: 15499219     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07388940802007249     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Achen, C. H., and L. M. Bartels. 2004. Blind retrospection: Electoral responses to drought, flu and shark attacks. Unpublished manuscript.
2. Adams, J. F., S. Merrill III, and B. Grofman. 2005. A unified theory of party competition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
3. BBC News, Election Results through Time. 2005. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/ shared/vote2005/past elections/html/default.stm
4. Bennett, D. S., and A. Stam. 1996. The duration of interstate wars, 1816-1985. American Political Science Review 90(2): 239-257.
5. Bennett, D. S., and A. Stam. 1998. The declining advantages of democracy: A combined model of war outcomes and duration. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42(3): 344-366.
6. Brace, P., and B. Hinckley. 1991. The structure of presidential approval: Constraints within and across presidencies. Journal of Politics 53 (4):993-1017.
7. Braumoeller, B. 2004. Hypothesis testing and multiplicative interaction terms. International Organization 58 (4): 807-820.
8. Brody, R. A., and C. R. Shapiro. 1989. A reconsideration of the rally phenomenon in public opinion. In Samuel Long, ed., Political behavior annual. Boulder, CO: Westview.
9. Bueno de Mesquita, B., and R. Siverson. 1995. War and the survival of political leaders: A comparative study of regime types and political accountability. American Political Science Review 89(4): 841-855.
10. Bueno de Mesquita, B., R. Siverson, and G. Woller. 1992. War and the fate of regimes: A comparative analysis. American Political Science Review 86(3): 638-646.
11. Bueno de Mesquita, B., J. Morrow, R. Siverson, and A. Smith. 1999. An institutionalist explanation of the democratic peace. American Political Science Review 93: 791-807.
12. Bueno de Mesquita, B., A. Smith, R. Siverson, and J. Morrow. 2003. The logic of political survival. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
13. Clarke, H., and M. Stewart. 1994. Prospections, retrospections and rationality: The "bankers" model of presidential approval reconsidered. American Journal of Political Science 38(4): 1104-1123.
14. Dave Leip's atlas of US presidential elections. 2006. United States presidential elections results, 2006. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Election Results. 1999-2006. http://www.eci.gov.in/StatisticalReports/ ElectionStatistics.asp
15. Downs, A. 1957. An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
16. Fearon, J. 1995. Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization 49: 379-414.
17. Feaver, P. D., and C. Gelpi. 2004. Choosing your battles: American civil-military relations and the use of force. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
18. Fiorina, M. P. 1978. Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: A micro-analysis. American Journal of Political Science 22(2): 426-443.
19. Gartner, S. S. 2008a. Secondary casualty information: Casualty uncertainty, female casualties, and wartime support. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25(2): 98-111.
20. Gartner, S. S. 2008b. Reopening the black box of war: War and domestic politics. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25(2): 95-97.
21. Gartner, S. S., and J. Bercovitch. 2006. Overcoming obstacles to peace: The contribution of mediation to short-lived conflict settlements. International Studies Quarterly 50 (4): 819-840.
22. Gartner, S. S., and G. Segura. 1998. War, casualties and public opinion. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42(3): 278-300.
23. Gartner, S. Sigmund, G. Segura, and B. Barratt. 2004. War casualties, policy positions, and the fate of legislators. Political Research Quarterly 57(3): 467-477.
24. Goemans, H. E. 2000. War and punishment: The causes of war termination and the First World War. Princeton: Princeton Universty Press.
25. Heston, A., R. Summers, and B. Aten. 2006. Penn World Table Version 6.2. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania.
26. James, P., and J. R. Oneal. 1991. The influence of domestic and international politics on the president's use of force. Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(2): 307-332.
27. James, P., and J. S. Rioux. 1998. International crises and linkage politics: The experiences of the United States, 1953-1994. Political Research Quarterly 51(3): 781-812.
28. Kadera, K. M., and D. S. Morey. 2008. The trade-offs of fighting and investing: A model of the evolution of war and peace. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25(2): 152-170.
29. Keesing's contemporary archives. 1971-1992. London: Keesing's Limited. Knesset Election Results. 2006. http://www.knesset.gov.il/description/ eng/engmimshal res.htm
30. Levy, J. 1989. The diversionary theory of war: A critique. In Manus Midlarsky, ed. The handbook of war studies. Boston: Unwin Hyman.
31. Lewis-Beck, M. 1990. Economics and elections: The major western democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
32. Lian, B., and J. R. Oneal. 1993. Presidents, the use of military force and public opinion. Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(2): 277-300.
33. Long, J. S. 1997. Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
34. MacKuen, M., R. Erikson, and J. Stimson. 1992. Peasants or bankers: The American electorate and the U.S. economy. American Political Science Review 86(3): 597-611.
35. Maoz, Z., and R. Siverson. 2008 Bargaining, domestic politics, and international context in the management of war: A review essay. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25(2): 171-189.
36. Miller, R. A. 1999. Regime type, strategic interaction, and the diversionary use of force. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43: 388-402.
37. Mueller, J. E. 1970. Presidential approval from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review 64(1): 18-34.
38. Mueller, J. E. 1973. War, presidents, and public opinion. New York: Wiley.
39. The National Archives. 2005. Statistical information about casualties of the Vietnam conflict. http: //www.archives.gov/research/vietnam-war/casualty- statistics.html#yearNorpoth, H. 1996. Presidents and the prospective voter. Journal of Politics 58(3): 776-792.
40. Oneal, J. R., and A. L. Bryan. 1995. The rally 'round the flag effect in U.S. foreign policy crises, 1950-1985. Political Behavior 17(4): 379-401.
41. Ostrom, C., and B. Job. 1986. The president and the political use of force. American Political Science Review 80(2): 541-566.
42. Powell, C. L., and J. E. Persico. 1995. My American journey. New York: Random House.
43. Ray, J. L. 1995. Democracy and international conflict. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
44. Richards, D., T. C. Morgan, R. K. Wilson, V. L. Schwebach, and G. D. Young Good times, bad times, and the diversionary use of force: A tale of some not-so-free agents. Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(3): 504-535.
45. Reiter, D., and A. C. Stam III. 1998. Democracy, war initiation, and victory. American Political Science Review 92(2): 377-389.
46. Reiter, D., and A. C. Stam III. 2002. Democracies at war. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
47. Russet, B., and J. Oneal. 2001. Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence and international orgranizations. New York: W.W. Norton.
48. Sarkees, M. R. 2000. "The Correlates of War data on war: An update to 1997. Conflict Management and Peace Science 18 (1): 123-144.
49. Schofield, N., and I. Sened. 2006. Multiparty democracy: Elections and legislative politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
50. Schultz, K. 2001. Democracy and coercive diplomacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
51. Slantchev, B. 2004. How initiators end their wars: The duration of warfare and the terms of peace. American Journal of Political Science 48(4): 813-829.
52. Smith, A. 1996. Diversionary foreign policy in democratic systems. International Studies Quarterly 40(1): 133-153.
53. Stam, A. C. III. 1996. Win, lose or draw: Domestic politics and the crucible of war. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
54. Sullivan, P. L. 2008. Sustaining the fight: A cross-sectional time-series analysis of public support for ongoing military interventions. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25(2): 112-135.
55. Sullivan, P., and S. S. Gartner. 2006. Disaggregating peace: Domestic politics and dispute outcomes. International Interactions 32(1): 1-25.
56. Tarar, A. 2006. Diversionary incentives and the bargaining approach to war. International Studies Quarterly 50(1): 169-188.
57. Zaller, J. R. 1992. The nature and origins of mass opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.