The duration of interstate wars, 1816-1985

American Political Science Review

Volumn 90, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 239-257

  Bennett, D Scott ^a   Stam III, Allan C ^b  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0030170532     PISSN: 00030554     EISSN: 15375943     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2082882     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Allison, Paul D. 1984. Event History Analysis. London: Sage.
2. Axelrod, Robert. 1979. "The Rational Timing of Surprise." World Politics 31(January):228-46.
3. Beck, Nathaniel, and Jonathan Katz. 1992. "Model Assessment and Choice via Cross-Validation." Presented at the 1992 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.
4. Blainey, Geoffrey. 1988. The Causes of War, 3d ed. New York: Free Press.
5. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1978. "Systemic Polarization and the Occurrence and Duration of War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 22(June):24l-67.
6. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press.
7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Randolph M. Siverson. 1995. "War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Account Ability." American Political Science Review 89(December):841-55.
8. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Randolph M. Siverson, and Gary Woller. 1992. "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis." American Political Science Review 86(September):638-46.
9. Clausewitz, Carl Von. 1976 (1832). On War. Trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
10. Clodfelter, Michael. 1992. Warfare and Armed Conflicts. 2 vols. Jefferson, NC: McFarland and Co.
11. Dupuy, R. Ernest, and Trevor N. Dupuy. 1986. The Encyclopedia of Military History from 3500 BC to the Present, 2d rev. ed. New York: Harper and Row.
12. Dupuy, Trevor Nevitt. 1979. Numbers, Predictions and War: Using History to Evaluate Combat Factors and Predict the Outcome of Battles. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill.
13. Dupuy, Trevor Nevitt. 1983. Analysis of Factors That Have Influenced Outcomes of Battles and Wars: A Data Base of Battles and Engagements: Final Report. Vols. 1-6. Dunn Loring, VA: Historical Evaluation and Research Organization, Division of T.N. Dupuy Associates.
14. Epstein, Joshua M. 1987. Strategy and Force Planning: The Case of the Persian Gulf. Washington. DC: Brookings Institution.
15. Gartner. Scott Sigmund. 1992. "Strategic Assessment in War: A Bounded Rationality Model of How Organizations Evaluate Policy Effectiveness." Ph.D. diss, University of Michigan.
16. Goertz, Gary, and Paul F. Diehl. 1993. "Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns." International Studies Quarterly 37(June):147-72.
17. Greene, William H. 1992. LIMDEP, v. 6.0. New York: Econometric Software, Inc.
18. Greene, William H. 1993. Econometric Analysis. 24 ed. New York: MacMillan Publishing Company.
19. Gurr, Ted Robert, Keith Jaggers, and Will H. Moore. 1989. "Polity II data set. ICPSR 9263." Boulder, CO. Photocopy.
20. Hanushek, Eric A., and John E. Jackson. 1977. Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. New York: Academic Press, Inc.
21. Holsti, Kalevi J. 1991. Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and International Order 1648-1989. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
22. Horvath, William J. 1968. "A Statistical Model for the Duration of Wars and Strikes." Behavioral Science 13(January/February):18-28.
23. Huth, Paul, D. Scott Bennett, and Christopher Gelpi. 1992, "System Uncertainty, Risk Propensity, and International Conflict Among the Great Powers." Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(September):478-517.
24. Iklé, Fred Charles. 1971. Every War Must End. New York: Columbia University Press.
25. International Institute for Strategic Studies. Various years. The Military Balance. London: IISS.
26. Jaggia, Sanjiv. 1991a. "Specification Tests Based on the Heterogeneous Generalized Gamma Model of Duration: With an Application to Kennan's Strike Data." Journal of Applied Econometrics 6(April-June):169-80.
27. Jaggia, Sanjiv. 1991b. "Tests of Moment Restrictions in Parametric Duration Models." Economics Letters 37(September):35-38.
28. Kalbfleisch, John D., and Ross L. Prentice. 1980. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
29. Kiefer, Nicholas M. 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions." Journal of Economic Literature 26(June):646-79.
30. Kier, Elizabeth. 1995. "Culture and Military Doctrine: France between the Wars." International Security 19(Spring):65-93.
31. King, Gary. 1989. Unifying Political Methodology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
32. Lancaster, Tony. 1990. The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
33. Langer, William L. 1980. An Encyclopedia of World History. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
34. Lebow, Richard Ned. 1984. "Windows of Opportunity: Do States Jump Through Them?" International Security 9(Summer): 147-76.
35. Luttwak, Edward N. 1987. Strategy. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
36. Mearsheirner, John. 1983. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
37. Mitchell, C. R., and Michael Nicholson. 1983. "Rational Models and the Ending of Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution 27(September): 495-520.
38. Mitchell, William. 1921. Our Air Force: The Keystone of National Defense. New York: E.P. Dutton.
39. Morrison, Donald G., and David C. Schmittlein. 1980. "Jobs, Strikes, and Wars: Probability Models for Duration." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 25(April):224-51.
40. Morrow, James D. 1985. "A Continuous-Outcome Expected Utility Theory of War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 29(September):473-502.
41. New York Times. 1983. The New York Times World Atlas. New York: Times Publishing.
42. Organski, A.F.K., and Jacek Kugler. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
43. Pagan, Adrian, and Frank Vella. 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey." Journal of Applied Econometrics 4(supplement):S29-S59.
44. Petersen, Trond. 1986. "Fitting Parametric Survival Models with Time-Dependent Covariates." Applied Statistics 35(No. 3):281-88.
45. Posen, Barry R. 1984. The Sources of Military Doctrine. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
46. Record, Jeffrey. 1993. Hollow Victory: A Contrary View of the Gulf War. McLean, VA: Brassey's (US).
47. Reiter, Dan. 1995. "Exploding the Powder Keg: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen." International Security 20(Fall):5-34.
48. Rosen, Stephen Peter. 1995. "Military Effectiveness: Why Society Matters." International Security 19(Spring):5-31.
49. Russett, Bruce M. 1990. Controlling the Sword. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
50. Sagan, Scott D. 1986. "1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability." International Security 11(Fall):151-75.
51. Singer, J. David, Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey. 1972. "Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965." In Peace, War and Numbers, ed. Bruce Russett. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
52. Small, Melvin, and J. David Singer. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
53. Snyder, Jack. 1984a. "Civil-Military Relations and the Cult of the offensive, 1914 and 1984." International Security 9(Summer):108-46.
54. Snyder, Jack L. 1984b. The Ideology of the Offensive: Military Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
55. Stam, Allan C., III. 1995. "Strategy, Class and Ethnic Bias: Their Mutual Effects on War Outcomes and Durations." Presented at the ISA annual meeting, Chicago.
56. Stam, Allan C., III. 1996. Win, Lose, or Draw. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
57. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Various years. SIPRI Yearbook.
58. Sun Tzu. 1991. The Art of War. London: Shambhala.
59. Trachtenberg, Marc. 1991. History and Strategy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
60. Van Evera, Stephen W. 1984. "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War." International Security 9(Summer): 58-107.
61. Vasquez, John A. 1994. The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
62. Vuchinich, Samuel. and Jay Teacfaman. 1993. "The Duration of Wars, Strikes, Riots, and Family Arguments." Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(September):544-68.
63. Warwick, Paul V. 1992. "Rising Hazards: An Underlying Dynamic of Parliamentary Government." American Journal of Political Science 36(December):857-76.
64. Wittman, Donald. 1979. "How a War Ends: A Rational Model Approach." Journal of Conflict Resolution 23(December):743-63.
65. Zimmerman. William. 1973. "Issue Area and Foreign-Policy Process: A Research Note in Search of a General Theory." American Political Science Review. 67:1204-12.