Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes

International Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 20, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 391-409

  Harvey, Nigel ^a   Harries, Claire ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Combining forecasts; Forecasting; Information integration; Judgment

Indexed keywords

EID: 4344682174     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.012     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Adams J.A. Goetz E.T. Feedback and practice as variables in error detection and correction Journal of Motor Behavior 5 1973 217-224
2. Adelman L. The influence of formal, substantive, and contextual task properties on the relative effectiveness of different forms of feedback in multiple-cue probability learning tasks Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 27 1981 423-442
3. Angus-Leppan P. Fatseas V. The forecasting accuracy of trainee accountants using judgmental and statistical techniques Accounting and Business Research 1986, Summer 179-188
4. Armstrong J.S. Collopy F. Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons International Journal of Forecasting 8 1992 69-80
5. Baddeley A. Human memory: Theory and practice 1990 Erlbaum Hove, UK
6. Bandura A. Self-efficacy: The exercise of control 1997 W.H. Freeman and Co. New York
7. Baron J. Thinking and deciding 1988 Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge
8. Bolger F. Harvey N. Context-sensitive heuristics in statistical reasoning Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 46A 1993 779-811
9. Carbone R. Gorr W.L. Accuracy of judgmental forecasting of time series Decision Sciences 16 1985 153-160
10. Chapman G.B. Johnson E.J. The limits of anchoring Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 7 1994 223-242
11. Chapman G.B. Johnson E.J. Anchoring, activation and the construction of values Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79 1999 115-153
12. Cooksey R.W. Judgment analysis: Theory, methods, and applications 1996 Academic Press New York
13. Craik F.I.M. Lockhart R.S. Levels of processing: A framework for memory research Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 11 1972 671-684
14. Dienes Z. Fahey R. Role of specific instances in controlling a dynamic system Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 21 1995 848-862
15. Du Charme W.M.A. A response bias explanation of conservative human inference Journal of Experimental Psychology 85 1970 66-74
16. Dudycha L.W. Naylor J.C. Characteristics of the human inference process in complex choice behavior Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 1 1966 110-128
17. Edwards W. Conservatism in human information processing In Kleinmuntz B. (Eds.) Formal representation of human judgment 1968 17-52 Wiley New York
18. Eggleton I.R.C. Intuitive time-series extrapolation Journal of Accounting Research 20 1982 68-102
19. Fildes R. The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods International Journal of Forecasting 8 1992 81-98
20. Fischer I. Harvey N. Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? International Journal of Forecasting 15 1999 227-246
21. Goodwin P. Wright G. Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting Omega: International Journal of Management Science 22 1994 553-568
22. Hammond K.R. Summers D.A. Cognitive control Psychological Review 79 1972 58-67
23. Harries C. Harvey N. Taking advice, using information and knowing what you are doing Acta Psychologica 104 2000 399-416
24. Harvey N. Relations between confidence and skilled performance In Wright G. Ayton P. (Eds.) Subjective probability 1994 321-352 Wiley New York
25. Harvey N. Bolger F. Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgmental forecasting International Journal of Forecasting 12 1996 119-137
26. Harvey N. Fischer I. Taking advice: Accepting help, improving judgment, and sharing responsibility Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 70 1997 117-133
27. Harvey N. Garwood J. Palencia M. Vocal matching of pitch intervals: Learning and transfer effects Psychology of Music 15 1987 90-106
28. Harvey N. Harries C. Fischer I. Using advice and assessing its quality Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 81 2000 252-278
29. Harvey N. Koehler D.J. Ayton P. Judgments of decision effectiveness: Actor-observer differences in overconfidence Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 70 1997 267-282
30. Higgins E.T. Rholes W.S. Jones C.R. Category accessibility and impression formation Journal of Experimental and Social Psychology 13 1977 141-154
31. Jacowitz K.E. Kahneman D. Measures of anchoring in estimation tasks Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 21 1995 1161-1166
32. Kahneman D. & Knetsch J. (1993). Anchoring or shallow inferences: The effect of format. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Berkeley.
33. Koehler D. Harvey N. Confidence judgments by actors and observers Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10 1997 221-242
34. Koele P. The influence of labeled stimuli on nonlinear multiple-cue probability learning Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 26 1980 22-31
35. Lawrence M.J. Edmundson R.H. O'Connor M.J. An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series International Journal of Forecasting 1 1985 25-35
36. Lawrence M.J. Edmundson R.H. O'Connor M.J. The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts Management Science 32 1986 1521-1532
37. Lawrence M.J. Makridakis S. Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 42 1989 172-187
38. Lawrence M.J. O'Connor M.J. Exploring judgmental forecasting International Journal of Forecasting 8 1992 15-26
39. Lee J.-W. Yates J.F. How quantity judgment changes as the number of cues increases: An analytical framework and review Psychological Bulletin 112 1992 363-377
40. Lichtenstein S. Slovic P. Fischhoff B. Layman M. Combs B. Judged frequency of lethal events Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 4 1978 551-578
41. Lim J.S. O'Connor M. Judgemental adjustment of initial forecasts: Its effectiveness and biases Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 8 1995 149-168
42. Lim J.S. O'Connor M. Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information International Journal of Forecasting 12 1996 139-154
43. Maines L.A. An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination International Journal of Forecasting 12 1996 223-234
44. Marteau T.M. Johnston M. Wynne G. Evans T.R. Cognitive factors in the explanation of the mismatch between confidence and competence in performing basic life support Psychology and Health 3 1989 172-182
45. Marteau T.M. Wynne G. Kaye W. Evans T.R. Resuscitation: Experience without feedback increases confidence but not skill British Medical Journal 300 1990 849-850
46. McKenna F.P. It won't happen to me: Unrealistic optimism or illusion of control? British Journal of Psychology 84 1993 39-50
47. Miller P.McC. Do labels mislead? A multiple cue study, within the framework of Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 6 1971 480-500
48. Muchinsky P.M. Dudycha A.L. The influence of a suppressor variable and labeled stimuli on multiple cue probability learning Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 12 1974 429-444
49. Muchinsky P.M. Dudycha A.L. Human inference behavior in abstract and meaningful environments Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13 1975 377-391
50. Mussweiler T. Strack F. Hypothesis-consistent testing and semantic priming in the anchoring paradigm: A selective accessibility model Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 35 1999 136-164
51. Parducci A. Happiness, pleasure and judgment: The contextual theory and its applications 1995 Erlbaum Mahwah, NJ
52. Perruchet P. Gallego J. A subjective unit formation account of implicit learning Berry D.C. (Eds.) How implicit is implicit learning? 1997 124-161 Oxford Univ. Press Oxford
53. Phillips L.D. Edwards W. Conservatism in a simple probability inference task Journal of Experimental Psychology 72 1966 346-354
54. Poulton E.C. Bias in quantifying judgments 1989 Erlbaum Hillsdale, NJ
55. Poulton E.C. Behavioral decision theory: A new approach 1994 Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge
56. Sanders N.R. Accuracy of judgmental forecasts Omega: International Journal of Management Science 20 1992 353-364
57. Sanders N.R. Manrodt K.B. Forecasting practices in US corporations survey results Interfaces 24 1994 91-100
58. Sanders N.R. Ritzman L.P. Principles for judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts Armstrong J.S. (Ed.) Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners 2001 409-416 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht
59. Slovic P. Fischhoff B. Lichtenstein S. Response mode, framing, and information processing effects in risk assessment Hogarth R.M. (Eds.) New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: The framing of questions and the consistency of response 1982 21-36 Jossey-Bass San Francisco
60. Sniezek J.A. The role of variable labels in cue probability learning tasks Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 38 1986 141-161
61. Srull T.R. Wyer R.S. The role of category accessibility in the interpretation of information about persons: Some determinants and implications Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 1979 1660-1672
62. Sterman J.D. Learning in and about complex systems System Dynamics Review 10 1994 291-330
63. Stewart T.R. A decomposition of the correlation coefficient and its use in analyzing forecasting skill Weather and Forecasting 5 1990 661-666
64. Stewart T.R. Lusk C.M. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts Journal of Forecasting 13 1994 579-599
65. Strack F. Mussweiler T. Explaining the enigmatic anchoring effect: Mechanisms of selective accessibility Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 73 1997 437-446
66. Svenson O. Are we all less risky and more skilful than our fellow drivers are? Acta Psychologica 47 1981 143-148
67. Tucker L.R. A suggested alternative formulation in the developments by Hursch, Hammond and Hursch and by Hammond, Hursch and Todd Psychological Review 71 1964 528-530
68. Tversky A. Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases Science 185 1974 1124-1131
69. Webby R. O'Connor M. Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: A review of the literature International Journal of Forecasting 12 1996 91-118