Judgments of decision effectiveness: Actor-observer differences in overconfidence

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Volumn 70, Issue 3, 1997, Pages 267-282

  Harvey, Nigel ^c   Koehler, Derek J ^b   Ayton, Peter ^a  

^a CITY UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO   (Canada)

^c NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0031161074     PISSN: 07495978     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1006/obhd.1997.2710     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Brier G. W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review. 78:1950;1-3.
2. Crutchfield J. P., Farmer J. D., Huberman B. A. Fluctuations and simple chaotic dynamics. Physics Reports. 92:1982;45-82.
3. Diehl E., Sterman J. D. Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 62:1995;198-215.
4. Fischhoff B., Bar-Hillel M. Focusing techniques: A short-cut to improving probability judgments? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 34:1984;175-194.
5. Fischhoff B., Slovic P., Lichtenstein S. Subjective sensitivity analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 23:1979;339-359.
6. Griffin D., Tversky A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology. 24:1992;411-435.
7. Harvey N. Judgmental control of the behavior of a dynamical system. Lines of thinking: Reflections on the psychology of thought. 1990a;Wiley, New York. p. 337-352.
8. Harvey N. Effects of difficulty on judgmental probability forecasting of control response efficacy. Journal of Forecasting. 9:1990b;373-387.
9. P. Juslin, H. Olsson, M. Björkman, Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.
10. Keren G. Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica. 77:1991;217-273.
11. Koehler D. J. Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 20:1994;461-469.
12. D. J. Koehler, N. Harvey, Confidence judgments by actors and observers, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.
13. Kleinmuntz D. N., Thomas J. B. The value of action and inference in dynamic decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 39:1987;341-364.
14. Langer E. J. The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 32:1975;311-328.
15. Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B. Training for calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 28:1980;149-171.
16. Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B., Phillips D. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. 1982;306-334 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
17. May R. M. Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics. Nature. 261:1986;459-467.
18. Moray N., Lootstein P., Pajak J. The acquisition of process control skills. IEEE Transactions: Systems, Man and Cybernetics. SMC-16:1986;497-504.
19. Murphy A. H. A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology. 12:1973;595-600.
20. Peterson D. K., Pitz G. F. Confidence, uncertainty and the use of information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition. 14:1988;85-92.
21. Sterman J. D. Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 42:1989;301-335.
22. Tyebjee T. T. Behavioral biases in new product forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting. 3:1987;393-404.
23. Vallone R. P., Griffin D. W., Lin S., Ross L. Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 58:1990;582-592.
24. Wright G., Ayton P. Judgmental probability forecasting for personal and impersonal events. International Journal of Forecasting. 5:1989;117-125.
25. Yates J. F. External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 30:1982;132-156.
26. Yates J. F. Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 41:1988;281-299.
27. Yates J. F. Judgment and decision making. 1990;Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs.
28. Yates J. F. Subjective probability accuracy analysis. Wright G., Ayton P. Subjective probability. 1994;381-410 Wiley, New York.