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Volumn 17, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 125-154

Bringing the Welfare State Back In: The Promise (and Perils) of the New Social Welfare History

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EID: 43349093907     PISSN: 08980306     EISSN: 15284190     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/jph.2005.0004     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (25)

References (97)
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    • This argument is elaborated in Paul Pierson, “The Limits of Design: Explaining Institutional Origins and Change,” Governance: An International Journal of Policy and Administration 13, no. 4 (2000). To be sure, political scientists have long recognized the “law of unintended consequences.” But it is fair to say that they have shown little inclination to come up with systematic arguments about when and why we should expect unanticipated effects. Nonetheless, based on what we know about political action, it is possible to identify at least two critical factors that are likely to influence the probability of unforeseen consequences. First, unintended effects are most likely when policies are highly complex– interacting with many different dimensions of society simultaneously–for in these circumstances the limits of humans' ability to calculate multiple and interactive effects and the possibility of emergent “system effects” loom large.
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