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13
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On the power conferred on business by America's decentralized federalism before the New Deal, see David Brian Robertson, “The Bias of American Federalism: The Limits of Welfare State Development in the Progressive Era,” Journal of Policy History 1, no. 3 (1989).
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The argument about the decline in business power during the New Deal is elaborated in
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The argument about the decline in business power during the New Deal is elaborated in Hacker and Pierson, “Business Power and Social Policy.”
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Business Power and Social Policy
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On the obstacles to scholarly progress that conceptual disagreement creates, see Paul Pierson, “Coping with Permanent Austerity: Welfare State Restructuring in Affluent Democracies,” in New Politics of the Welfare State, ed. Paul Pierson (New York, 2001), 421.
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This argument is elaborated in, To be sure, political scientists have long recognized the “law of unintended consequences.” But it is fair to say that they have shown little inclination to come up with systematic arguments about when and why we should expect unanticipated effects. Nonetheless, based on what we know about political action, it is possible to identify at least two critical factors that are likely to influence the probability of unforeseen consequences. First, unintended effects are most likely when policies are highly complex– interacting with many different dimensions of society simultaneously–for in these circumstances the limits of humans' ability to calculate multiple and interactive effects and the possibility of emergent “system effects” loom large.
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This argument is elaborated in Paul Pierson, “The Limits of Design: Explaining Institutional Origins and Change,” Governance: An International Journal of Policy and Administration 13, no. 4 (2000). To be sure, political scientists have long recognized the “law of unintended consequences.” But it is fair to say that they have shown little inclination to come up with systematic arguments about when and why we should expect unanticipated effects. Nonetheless, based on what we know about political action, it is possible to identify at least two critical factors that are likely to influence the probability of unforeseen consequences. First, unintended effects are most likely when policies are highly complex– interacting with many different dimensions of society simultaneously–for in these circumstances the limits of humans' ability to calculate multiple and interactive effects and the possibility of emergent “system effects” loom large.
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Second, unintended effects are more likely to the extent that policymakers are focused on the near-term future (to use economics lingo, their “time horizons” are short), for in these circumstances actors are likely to pay little attention to the potential longterm or interactive elements of their policies. Needless to say, social welfare policies are often characterized by the first feature, and in many cases, especially when passed to respond to pressing social needs, the second as well.
-
Robert Jervis, “Complexity and the Analysis of Political and Social Life,” Political Science Quarterly 112, no. 4 (1997-1998). Second, unintended effects are more likely to the extent that policymakers are focused on the near-term future (to use economics lingo, their “time horizons” are short), for in these circumstances actors are likely to pay little attention to the potential longterm or interactive elements of their policies. Needless to say, social welfare policies are often characterized by the first feature, and in many cases, especially when passed to respond to pressing social needs, the second as well.
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in (Princeton)
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Margaret Weir, Ann Shola Orloff, and Theda Skocpol, “Introduction: Understanding American Social Policies,” in The Politics of Social Policy in the United States (Princeton, 1988), 9.
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The logic of counterfactuals, and its relation to historical and cross-national comparison, is discussed further in
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The logic of counterfactuals, and its relation to historical and cross-national comparison, is discussed further in Jacob S. Hacker, “Learning from Defeat? Political Analysis and the Failure of Health Care Reform in the United States,” British Journal of Political Science 30 (2000).
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See also James D. Fearon, “Couterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Sciences,” World Politics 43, no. 2 (1991).
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Idem, “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics,” American Political Science Review 94, no. 2 (2000).
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