Complexity and the analysis of political and social life

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 112, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 569-593

  Jervis, Robert ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0000705329     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2657692     Document Type: Article

References (108)

1. Quoted in Wallace White, "Profiles (Sylvia Earle)," New Yorker, 3 July 1989, 56, 46.
2. For a discussion of marine safety in terms of systems effects, see Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents (New York: Basic Books, 1984), chap. 6. My thinking has been strongly influenced by this book.
3. Garrett Hardin, "The Cybernetics of Competition," Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 7 (Autumn 1963): 79-80. (Emphasis added.)
4. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
5. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
6. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
7. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
8. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
9. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
10. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
11. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
12. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
13. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
14. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
15. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
16. Jonathan Weisman, "Tilting At Windmills," Wildlife Conservation 97 (January/February 1994): 52-57; Lindsey Gruson, "Problem With Clean Harbor: Creatures Devour Waterfront," New York Times, 27 June 1993;Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 988); Perrow, Normal Accidents; the classic case of "turned" agents was revealed in J. C. Masterman, The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1972); Craig Packer, "Coping with a Lion Killer," Natural History 105 (June 1996): 14-17; William Stevens, "Acid Rain Efforts Found to Undercut Themselves," New York Times, 27 January 1994; Richard Kerr, "Study Unveils Climate Cooling Caused by Pollutant Haze," Science, 12 May 1995, 802; Kerr, "It's Official: First Glimmer of Greenhouse Warning Seen," ibid., 8 December 1995, 1565-67; Nancy Langston, Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995), 148-50, 292-94; "You Want Hair, Get A Prescription," Aspen Daily News, 28 July 1994 (in the end, the FDA decided to permit freer sale of the medication: "Hair-Growth Drug to Be Sold Over the Counter," New York Times, 13 February 1996); Leon Sigal, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), 215-16. Those who believe that it is healthy to eat food that has not been treated with pesticides will be interested in Jane Brody, "Strong Views on Origins of Cancer," New York Times, 5 July 1994.
17. Quoted in Larry Berman, "Coming to Grips with Lyndon Johnson's War," Diplomatic History 17 (Fall 1993): 525.
18. David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994), 272.
19. Glenn Snyder, "The Balance of Power and the Balance of Terror" in Paul Seabury, ed., The Balance of Power (San Francisco: Chandler, 1965), 184-201.
20. Walter Millis, ed.. The Forrestal Diaries (New York: Viking, 1951), 526; William Stueck, The Korean War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995), 6; quoted in Thomas Friedman, "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad, World Money Market," New York Times, 8 May 1994. As these examples show, people's expectations - based in part on their beliefs about others' expectations - are central to the dynamics of systems.
21. Walter Millis, ed.. The Forrestal Diaries (New York: Viking, 1951), 526; William Stueck, The Korean War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995), 6; quoted in Thomas Friedman, "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad, World Money Market," New York Times, 8 May 1994. As these examples show, people's expectations - based in part on their beliefs about others' expectations - are central to the dynamics of systems.
22. Walter Millis, ed.. The Forrestal Diaries (New York: Viking, 1951), 526; William Stueck, The Korean War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995), 6; quoted in Thomas Friedman, "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad, World Money Market," New York Times, 8 May 1994. As these examples show, people's expectations - based in part on their beliefs about others' expectations - are central to the dynamics of systems.
23. For a good and critical discussion and review of the literature, see D. C. Phillips, Holistic Thought in Social Science (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1976).
24. Quoted in R. W. Apple, Jr., "Margaret Thatcher: A Choice, Not an Echo," New York Times Magazine, 29 April 1979, 36; Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1973), 305.
25. Quoted in R. W. Apple, Jr., "Margaret Thatcher: A Choice, Not an Echo," New York Times Magazine, 29 April 1979, 36; Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1973), 305.
26. The Federalist Papers, Isaac Kramnick, ed. (London: Penguin, 1987), 336.
27. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979). 64; for parallel discussions in social psychology, organization theory, and ecology, see respectively Paul Watzlawick, Janet Beavin, and Don Jackson, Pragmatics of Human Communication: A Study of Interactional Patterns, Pathologies, and Paradoxes (New York: Norton, 1967), 125-26,135-39; Perrow, Normal Accidents; Stuart Pimm, The Balance of Nature? Ecological Issues in the Conservation of Species and Communities (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), 249-56.
28. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979). 64; for parallel discussions in social psychology, organization theory, and ecology, see respectively Paul Watzlawick, Janet Beavin, and Don Jackson, Pragmatics of Human Communication: A Study of Interactional Patterns, Pathologies, and Paradoxes (New York: Norton, 1967), 125-26,135-39; Perrow, Normal Accidents; Stuart Pimm, The Balance of Nature? Ecological Issues in the Conservation of Species and Communities (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), 249-56.
29. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979). 64; for parallel discussions in social psychology, organization theory, and ecology, see respectively Paul Watzlawick, Janet Beavin, and Don Jackson, Pragmatics of Human Communication: A Study of Interactional Patterns, Pathologies, and Paradoxes (New York: Norton, 1967), 125-26,135-39; Perrow, Normal Accidents; Stuart Pimm, The Balance of Nature? Ecological Issues in the Conservation of Species and Communities (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), 249-56.
30. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979). 64; for parallel discussions in social psychology, organization theory, and ecology, see respectively Paul Watzlawick, Janet Beavin, and Don Jackson, Pragmatics of Human Communication: A Study of Interactional Patterns, Pathologies, and Paradoxes (New York: Norton, 1967), 125-26,135-39; Perrow, Normal Accidents; Stuart Pimm, The Balance of Nature? Ecological Issues in the Conservation of Species and Communities (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), 249-56.
31. Alan Beyerchen, "Nonlinear Science and the Unfolding of a New Intellectual Vision" in Richard Bjornson and Marilyn Waldman, eds., Papers in Comparative Studies vol. 6 (Columbus: Center for Comparative Studies in the Humanities, Ohio State University Press, 1989), 30.
32. Gerhard Sonnert with the assistance of Gerald Holton, Gender Differences in Science Careers (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1995).
33. Edmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in France (New York: Everyman's Library, 1967), 19-20.
34. Quoted in David Western, "The Balance of Nature," Wildlife Conservation 96 (March/April 1993): 54. For more technical discussions, see Roger Lewin, "In Ecology, Change Brings Stability," Science, 28 November 1986, 1071-73 ; and S. J. McNaughton, R. W. Ruess, and S. W. Seagle, "Large Mammals and Process Dynamics in African Ecosystems," BioScience 38 (December 1988): 794-800.
35. Quoted in David Western, "The Balance of Nature," Wildlife Conservation 96 (March/April 1993): 54. For more technical discussions, see Roger Lewin, "In Ecology, Change Brings Stability," Science, 28 November 1986, 1071-73 ; and S. J. McNaughton, R. W. Ruess, and S. W. Seagle, "Large Mammals and Process Dynamics in African Ecosystems," BioScience 38 (December 1988): 794-800.
36. Quoted in David Western, "The Balance of Nature," Wildlife Conservation 96 (March/April 1993): 54. For more technical discussions, see Roger Lewin, "In Ecology, Change Brings Stability," Science, 28 November 1986, 1071-73 ; and S. J. McNaughton, R. W. Ruess, and S. W. Seagle, "Large Mammals and Process Dynamics in African Ecosystems," BioScience 38 (December 1988): 794-800.
37. William Lee Miller, Arguing About Slavery (New York: Knopf, 1996), 278. The classic treatments of these processes are E. E. Schattschneider, Politics, Pressures and the Tariff (New York: Prentice-Hall, 1935); and Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1960); also see Norton Long, "The Local Community as an Ecology of Games," American Journal of Sociology 44 (November 1958): 251-61; and George Tsebelis. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
38. William Lee Miller, Arguing About Slavery (New York: Knopf, 1996), 278. The classic treatments of these processes are E. E. Schattschneider, Politics, Pressures and the Tariff (New York: Prentice-Hall, 1935); and Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1960); also see Norton Long, "The Local Community as an Ecology of Games," American Journal of Sociology 44 (November 1958): 251-61; and George Tsebelis. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
39. William Lee Miller, Arguing About Slavery (New York: Knopf, 1996), 278. The classic treatments of these processes are E. E. Schattschneider, Politics, Pressures and the Tariff (New York: Prentice-Hall, 1935); and Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1960); also see Norton Long, "The Local Community as an Ecology of Games," American Journal of Sociology 44 (November 1958): 251-61; and George Tsebelis. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
40. William Lee Miller, Arguing About Slavery (New York: Knopf, 1996), 278. The classic treatments of these processes are E. E. Schattschneider, Politics, Pressures and the Tariff (New York: Prentice-Hall, 1935); and Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1960); also see Norton Long, "The Local Community as an Ecology of Games," American Journal of Sociology 44 (November 1958): 251-61; and George Tsebelis. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
41. William Lee Miller, Arguing About Slavery (New York: Knopf, 1996), 278. The classic treatments of these processes are E. E. Schattschneider, Politics, Pressures and the Tariff (New York: Prentice-Hall, 1935); and Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1960); also see Norton Long, "The Local Community as an Ecology of Games," American Journal of Sociology 44 (November 1958): 251-61; and George Tsebelis. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
42. Michael Klarman, "How Brown Changed Race Relations: The Backlash Thesis," Journal of American History 81 (June 1994): 81-118.
43. R. Dawkins and J. Krebs, "Arms Races Between and Within Species," Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, vol. B 205, 21 September 1979, 489-511; Leigh Van Valen, "A New Evolutionary Theory," Evolutionary Theory 1 (July 1973): 1-30.
44. R. Dawkins and J. Krebs, "Arms Races Between and Within Species," Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, vol. B 205, 21 September 1979, 489-511; Leigh Van Valen, "A New Evolutionary Theory," Evolutionary Theory 1 (July 1973): 1-30.
45. Lawrence Freedman and Virginia Gamba-Stonehouse, Signals of War: The Falklands Conflict of 1982 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), 14-15.
46. Raymond Bauer, Ithiel de Sola Pool, and Lewis Anthony Dexter, American Business and Public Policy (New York: Atherton, 1963), 420.
47. Lawrence Tribe, "The Curvature of Constitutional Space: What Lawyers Can Learn From Modern Physics," Harvard Law Review 103 (November 1989): 1-39.
48. Constance Holden, "U.S. Abortion Policy May Increase Abortions," Science, 27 November 1987, 1222.
49. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), 357.
50. Lee Ross and Richard Nisbett, The Person and Situation: Perspectives of Social Psychology (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991), 214-19. Of course, other factors may have been at work as well, such as the children and their families developing low self-images and expectations of failure.
51. The classic study is Joseph Berliner, Factory and Manager in the USSR (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1957).
52. Kimberly McLarin, "Foster Care Model Attracts New York-But Only in Part," New York Times, 20 November 1995; for the perverse effects on foster care created by the new welfare incentives, see Nina Bernstein, "Foster Care System Wary of Welfare Cuts," ibid., 19 November 1995.
53. Kimberly McLarin, "Foster Care Model Attracts New York-But Only in Part," New York Times, 20 November 1995; for the perverse effects on foster care created by the new welfare incentives, see Nina Bernstein, "Foster Care System Wary of Welfare Cuts," ibid., 19 November 1995.
54. "Did a Taiwan Ship Hurl Stowaways Overboard?" ibid., 29 May 1996.
55. Victor Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, forthcoming).
56. William Plowden, The Motorcar and Politics: 1896-1970 (London: Bodley Head, 1971), 241.
57. John Conybeare, "Evaluation of Automobile Safety Regulations: The Case of Compulsory Seat Belt Legislation in Australia." Policy Sciences 12 (June 1980): 27-39.
58. Samuel Peltzman, "The Effects'of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy 83 (August 1975): 677-725. The empirieal analyses necessary to tease out the influence of regulations from the multiplicity of other factors at work is extremely difficult, and so the studies are controversial.
59. Gary Marx, Undercover: Police Surveillance in America (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988), 47.
60. Donatella Lorch, "In Nairobi, Car-Jacking is a Bitter Fact of Life," New York Times, 19 December 1993; similarly, it is now generally believed that harsh sentences for drug dealers greatly increased the number of teenagers in the drug trade.
61. This analysis is drawn from Samuel Huntington, The Soldier and the State (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1957); and Peter Feaver, Guarding the Guardians: Civilian Control of Nuclear Weapons in the United States (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992), esp. 251-53.
62. This analysis is drawn from Samuel Huntington, The Soldier and the State (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1957); and Peter Feaver, Guarding the Guardians: Civilian Control of Nuclear Weapons in the United States (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992), esp. 251-53.
63. As Albert Hirschman notes, although the "futility thesis" and the "perversity thesis" are often conjoined, they actually represent quite different beliefs about the ways in which systems defeat attempts to alter them. See Hirschman, The Rhetoric of Reaction (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991), 71-74.
64. Robert Hershey, Jr., "Citing Cost, Budget Office Blocks Work Place Health Proposal," New York Times, 16 March 1992; also see Adam Clymer, "Budget Office Retreats on Work Health," ibid., 30 March 1992.
65. Robert Hershey, Jr., "Citing Cost, Budget Office Blocks Work Place Health Proposal," New York Times, 16 March 1992; also see Adam Clymer, "Budget Office Retreats on Work Health," ibid., 30 March 1992.
66. "Spider Expert Accuses Hollywood of Spinning Web of Deceit," Aspen Daily News, 26 July 1990.
67. Geoffrey Till, "Air Power and the Battleship in the 1920s" in Brian Ranft, ed., Technical Change and British Naval Policy: 1860-1939 (New York: Holmes and Meier. 1977), 119.
68. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (London: Macmillan, 1983).
69. This point is missed, for example, in Milt Freudenheim, "Medicare, Jot This Down," New York Times, 31 May 1995, which moves from the basic facts to the conclusion that "business has a lot to teach the Government about controlling medical costs."
70. Richard Lewontin, Biology as Ideology (New York: HarperCollins, 1993), 42-43.
71. Richard McKenzie and Gordon Tullock, The New World of Economies: Explorations into the Human Experience, rev. ed. (Homewood, IL: Irwin, 1978), 285-88. For a discussion of how we are to evaluate programs in light of complications like this, see Irwin Deutscher. "Toward Avoiding the GoalTrap in Evaluation Research" in Francis Caro, ed., Readings in Evaluation Research, 2nd ed. (New York: Russell Sage, 1977), 229-31.
72. Richard McKenzie and Gordon Tullock, The New World of Economies: Explorations into the Human Experience, rev. ed. (Homewood, IL: Irwin, 1978), 285-88. For a discussion of how we are to evaluate programs in light of complications like this, see Irwin Deutscher. "Toward Avoiding the GoalTrap in Evaluation Research" in Francis Caro, ed., Readings in Evaluation Research, 2nd ed. (New York: Russell Sage, 1977), 229-31.
73. Douglas Rivers and Morris Fiorina, "Constituency Service, Reputation, and the Incumbency Advantage" in Morris Fiorina and David Rohde, eds., Home Style and Washington Work: Studies of Congressional Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1989), 17-45.
74. Basil Liddell Hart, "The 'Man-in-the-Dark' Theory of War," National Review 75 (June 1920): 473-84. In Charles Perrow's terms, these actions make the system more linear and loosely coupled: Normal Accidents.
75. Basil Liddell Hart, "The 'Man-in-the-Dark' Theory of War," National Review 75 (June 1920): 473-84. In Charles Perrow's terms, these actions make the system more linear and loosely coupled: Normal Accidents.
76. Jerry Gray, "Glassboro State College to Receive a $100 Million Donation," New York Times, 7 July 1992. Similarly, a Senate anticrime appropriations bill specified "that state and local governments would not be permitted to use it to replace money that they divert from crime-fighting to other programs." See Clifford Krauss, "Senate Approves Broad Crime Bill; Splits Over Guns," ibid., 20 November 1993.
77. Jerry Gray, "Glassboro State College to Receive a $100 Million Donation," New York Times, 7 July 1992. Similarly, a Senate anticrime appropriations bill specified "that state and local governments would not be permitted to use it to replace money that they divert from crime-fighting to other programs." See Clifford Krauss, "Senate Approves Broad Crime Bill; Splits Over Guns," ibid., 20 November 1993.
78. Arend Lijphart, The Politics of Accommodation: Pluralism and Democracy in the Netherlands (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1968); Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977); Jurg Steiner and Robert H. Dorff, A Theory of Political Decision Modes: Intraparty Decision Making in Switzerland (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1980).
79. Arend Lijphart, The Politics of Accommodation: Pluralism and Democracy in the Netherlands (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1968); Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977); Jurg Steiner and Robert H. Dorff, A Theory of Political Decision Modes: Intraparty Decision Making in Switzerland (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1980).
80. Arend Lijphart, The Politics of Accommodation: Pluralism and Democracy in the Netherlands (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1968); Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977); Jurg Steiner and Robert H. Dorff, A Theory of Political Decision Modes: Intraparty Decision Making in Switzerland (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1980).
81. Albert Hirschman, A Bias for Hope: Essays on Development in Latin America (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971), 284, 350-53; also see Hirschman, Rhetoric of Reaction, 153-54.
82. Albert Hirschman, A Bias for Hope: Essays on Development in Latin America (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971), 284, 350-53; also see Hirschman, Rhetoric of Reaction, 153-54.
83. Peter Drucker, "The Changed World Economy," Foreign Affairs 64 (Spring 1986): 771.
84. Quoted in Frank Ninkovich, Modernity and Power: A History of the Domino Theory in the Twentieth Century (Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1994), 283.
85. More broadly, peace in Europe may be guaranteed by the American military presence, which all parties want to see maintained so that old fears and rivalries do not reassert themselves: Robert Art, "Why Western Europe Needs the United States and NATO," Political Science Quarterly 111 (Spring 1996): 1-39.
86. Eleanor Ostrom, Governing the Commons (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990).
87. Quoted in William Gibbons. The U.S. Government and the Vietnam War, Part II (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), 41; also see 23-25, 32.
88. Quoted in Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., Robert Kennedy and His Times (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1978), 761.
89. H. R. Haldeman, The Haldeman Diaries: Inside the Nixon White House (New York: Putnam's, 1994). 145-46. The impulse to strike back after having been humiliated can also have psychological roots, especially for people with personalities like Nixon's. See Blema Steinberg, Shame and Humiliation: Presidential Decision Making on Vietnam (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1996).
90. H. R. Haldeman, The Haldeman Diaries: Inside the Nixon White House (New York: Putnam's, 1994). 145-46. The impulse to strike back after having been humiliated can also have psychological roots, especially for people with personalities like Nixon's. See Blema Steinberg, Shame and Humiliation: Presidential Decision Making on Vietnam (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1996).
91. "Telegram from Tunkin to Soviet Foreign Ministry, 14 September 1949," translated by Kathryn Weathersby, Cold War International History Project Bulletin, No. 5, Spring 1995,7. But it is also quite possible that the American refusal to intervene in China led Stalin to believe that America would not fight for Korea.
92. Pravda, 26 October 1976, 2-3; I am grateful to Ted Hopf for this citation and translation.
93. Wallace Thies, When Governments Collide: Coercion and Diplomacy in the Vietnam Conflict, 1964-68 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980). Johnson explained to his advisers: "We've got to use both hands. It's like a prizefight. Our right is our military power, but our left must be our peace proposals. Every time you move troops forward, you move diplomats forward." Quoted in Brian VanDeMark, Into the Quaqmire: Lyndon Johnson and the Escalation of the Vietnam War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), 201-2. As Thies explains, the policy failed in part because it could not be implemented as designed, although it seems doubtful that any feasible American actions could have produced an agreement at that time.
94. Wallace Thies, When Governments Collide: Coercion and Diplomacy in the Vietnam Conflict, 1964-68 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980). Johnson explained to his advisers: "We've got to use both hands. It's like a prizefight. Our right is our military power, but our left must be our peace proposals. Every time you move troops forward, you move diplomats forward." Quoted in Brian VanDeMark, Into the Quaqmire: Lyndon Johnson and the Escalation of the Vietnam War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), 201-2. As Thies explains, the policy failed in part because it could not be implemented as designed, although it seems doubtful that any feasible American actions could have produced an agreement at that time.
95. Henry Kissinger. White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown, 1979), 1144. Kissinger calls this a "startling thesis." A more apt description would be shrewd and perhaps too clever by half, but not startling.
96. For an example, see Robert Dallek, Lone Star Rising: Lyndon Johnson and His Times, 1908-1960 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), 377.
97. Janne Nolan, Guardians of the Arsenal (New York: Basic Brooks, 1989), 145-46; for another example see Adam Clymer, "Gingrich Won't Duck Tough Medicare Vote," New York Times, 18 October 1995. David Baldwin's point is perhaps better understood by politicians than by scholars: the common idea "that a broken promise has no value is . . . unacceptable. Anyone with children knows that breaking last week's promise to take them to the movies makes it much harder to break this week's promise." Baldwin, Paradoxes of Power (New York: Basil Blackwell, 1989), 125.
98. Janne Nolan, Guardians of the Arsenal (New York: Basic Brooks, 1989), 145-46; for another example see Adam Clymer, "Gingrich Won't Duck Tough Medicare Vote," New York Times, 18 October 1995. David Baldwin's point is perhaps better understood by politicians than by scholars: the common idea "that a broken promise has no value is . . . unacceptable. Anyone with children knows that breaking last week's promise to take them to the movies makes it much harder to break this week's promise." Baldwin, Paradoxes of Power (New York: Basil Blackwell, 1989), 125.
99. Janne Nolan, Guardians of the Arsenal (New York: Basic Brooks, 1989), 145-46; for another example see Adam Clymer, "Gingrich Won't Duck Tough Medicare Vote," New York Times, 18 October 1995. David Baldwin's point is perhaps better understood by politicians than by scholars: the common idea "that a broken promise has no value is . . . unacceptable. Anyone with children knows that breaking last week's promise to take them to the movies makes it much harder to break this week's promise." Baldwin, Paradoxes of Power (New York: Basil Blackwell, 1989), 125.
100. Quoted in Les Line, "Advocates of Sustainable Mahogany Harvest Counter Boycott," New York Times, 4 June 1996.
101. Helen Milner, Resisting Protectionism: Global Industries and the Politics of International Trade (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988); Scott James and David Lake, "The Second Face of Hegemony: Britain's Repeal of the Corn Laws and the American Walker Tariff of 1846," International Organization 43 (Winter 1989): 1-30.
102. Helen Milner, Resisting Protectionism: Global Industries and the Politics of International Trade (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988); Scott James and David Lake, "The Second Face of Hegemony: Britain's Repeal of the Corn Laws and the American Walker Tariff of 1846," International Organization 43 (Winter 1989): 1-30.
103. Schattschneider, Semisovereign People, 99-100.
104. Haldeman, Diaries, 129.
105. Hardin, "The Cybernetics of Competition," 80-81.
106. I am drawing on a slightly different formulation by Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Press, 1988), esp. 77-79 and 118-120.
107. Waltz, Theory of International Politics.
108. Theodosius Dobzhansky, "Nothing in Biology Makes Sense Except in the Light of Evolution," American Biology Teacher 35 (March 1972): 125-29.