Response in extremes of daily precipitation and wind from a downscaled multi-model ensemble of anthropogenic global climate change scenarios

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 60 A, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 411-426

  Haugen, Jan Erik ^a   Iversen, Trond ^a,b  

^a NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Norway)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DOWNSCALING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXTREME EVENT; GLOBAL CLIMATE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); WIND VELOCITY;

CENTRAL EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; NORTHERN EUROPE;

EID: 42549116158     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: 16000870     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00315.x     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Ådlandsvik, B. 2008. Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario for the North Sea. Tellus 60A.
2. Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R. and Delworth, T. L. 2000. Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 407 (Oct. 5), 617-620.
3. Benestad, R. E. 2005. Climate change scenarios for Northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L17704.
4. Bjørge, D., Haugen, J. E. and Nordeng, T. E. 2000. Future climate in Norway. DNMI Research Rep. 103, 41 pp. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P. O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway, ISSN 0332-9879.
5. Boer, G. J. 1994. Predictability regimes in atmospheric flow. Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 2285-2295.
6. Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, B. E. 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev 115, 1083-1126.
7. Castro, C. L., Pielke, Sr., R. A. and Leoncini, G. 2005. Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of value retained and added using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). J. Geophys. Res. 110, D05108.
8. Christensen, J. H., Machenhauer, B., Jones, R. G., Schär, C., Ruti, P. M. and co-authors. 1997. Validation of present-day regional climate simulations over Europe: LAM simulations with observed boundary conditions. Clim. Dyn. 13, 489-506.
9. Christensen, O. B. and Christensen, J. H. 1998. Very high-resolution climate simulations over Scandinavia. Present Climate. J. Climate 11 (12), 3204-3229.
10. Christensen, J. H., Räisänen, J., Iversen, T., Bjørge, D., Christensen, O. B. and co-authors. 2001. A synthesis of regional climate change simulations -A Scandinavian perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 1003-1006.
11. Corti, S., Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. N., 1999. Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. Nature 398, 799-802.
12. Denis, B., Laprise, R., Caya, D. and Coté, J. 2002. Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate models: The big-brother experiments. Climate Dynam. 18, 627-646.
13. Engen-Skaugen, T., Haugen, J. E. and Tveito, O. E. 2007. Temperature scenarios for Norway: From regional to local scale. Clim. Dynam. 29, 441-453.
14. Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2002. High-resolution limited-area ensemble predictions based on low-resolution targeted singular vectors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 1321-1341.
15. Furevik, T., Bentsen, M., Drange, H., Kindem, I. K. T., Kvamstø, G. and co-authors. 2003. Description and validation of the Bergen Climate Model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM. Clim. Dynam. 21, 27-51.
16. Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L. O. 1991. Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: A review. Rev. Geophysics 29, 191-216.
17. Giorgi, F., Hewitson, B., Christensen, J., Hulme, M., von Storch, H. and co-authors. 2001. Regional climate information -evaluation and projections. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Eds Houghton, J. T. et al.). Cambridge University Press, UK. 881 pp.
18. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M. and co-authors. 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dynam. 16, 147-166.
19. IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis. (Eds Houghton, J. T. et al.). Cambridge University Press, UK. 881 pp.
20. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 18 pp.
21. Iversen, T., Kristiansen, J., Jung, T. and Barkmeijer, J. 2008. Optimal atmospheric forcing perturbations for the cold ocean warm land pattern. Tellus 60A.
22. Jones, R. G., Murphy, J. M. and Noguer, M. 1995. Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional-climate model. I: Assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 121, 1413-1449.
23. Jones, R. G., Murphy, J. M., Noguer, M. and Keen, A. B. 1997. Simulations of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model. II: Comparison of driving and regional model responses to a doubling of carbon dioxide. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 123, 265-292.
24. Jones, R., Hassell, D. and Murphy, J. 1999. Configuring new climate models for Europe with improved climatologies via better representation of physical processes. UKMO second year report for MERCURE, EC contract ENV4-CT97-0485.
25. Kanestrøm, I., Pedersen, K. and Skåtun, H. 1985. Major stationary ridges and troughs at 500mb. Geophysica Norvegica 33, 1-40.
26. Kirkevåg, A., Iversen, T., Seland, Ø., Debernard, J. B., Kristjánsson, J. E. and co-authors. 2008. Aerosol-cloud-climate interactions in the climate model CAM-Oslo. Tellus 60A.
27. Køltzow, M., Iversen, T. and Haugen, J. E., 2008. Extended Big-Brother experiments: The role of lateral boundary data quality and size of integration domain in regional climate modeling. Tellus 60A.
28. McAveney, B. J., Covey, C., Joussaume, S., Kattsov, V., Kitoh, A. and co-authors. 2001. Model evaluation. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Eds Houghton, J. T. et al.). Cambridge University Press, UK. 881 pp.
29. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J. and co-authors. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 595 pp. Cambridge University Press. (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/ emission/index.htm)
30. Palmer, T. N. and Räisänen, J. 2002. Quantifying risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415, 512-514.
31. Räisänen, J. 2001. CO2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments; quantification of agreement and role of internal variability. J. Climate 14, 2088-2104.
32. Räisänen, J. and Palmer, T. N. 2001. A probability and decision-model analysis of a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations. J. Climate 14, 3212-3226.
33. Räisänen, J., Hansson, U., Ullerstig, A., Doscher, R., Graham, L. P. and co-authors. 2004. European climate in the late twenty-first century: Regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dynam. 22, 13-31.
34. Rinke, A., Gerdes, R., K. Dethloff, T. Kandlbinder, M., Karcher, F. and co-authors. 2003. A case study of the anomalous Arctic sea ice conditions during 1990: Insights from coupled and uncoupled regional climate model simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 108 (D9), 4275.
35. Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M. and co-authors. 1996. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: model description and simulation of present-day climate: MPI Report 218.
36. Roeckner, E., Bengtsson, L., Feichter, J., Lelieveld, J. and Rodhe, H. 1999. Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle. J. Climate 12, 3004-3032.
37. Seland, Ø., Iversen, T. and Kirkevåg, A. 2008. Sensitivity of aerosol climate interactions to basic assumptions in the CAM-Oslo atmospheric GCM. Tellus 60A, in press.
38. Sorteberg, A., Furevik, T., Drange, H. and Kvamstø, N. G. 2005. Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature projections, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18708.
39. Von Storch, H., Langenberg, H. and Feser, F. 2000. A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes, Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 3664-3672.
40. Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S., 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemispheric winter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 784-812.
41. Wallace, J. M., Zhang, Y. and Bajuk, L. 1996. Interpretation of interdecadal trends in Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature. J. Climate 9, 249-259.
42. Wilby, R. L. and Wigley, T. M. L. 1997. Downscaling general circulation model output; a review of methods and limitations. Prog. Phys. Geogra. 21, 530-548.