메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 30, Issue 2-3, 2008, Pages 321-332

The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PLUME; CLIMATE FORCING; DETECTION METHOD; GREENHOUSE GAS; MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION; OVERTURN; PREDICTION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 38849168122     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (35)

References (84)
  • 1
    • 0009826384 scopus 로고
    • Assessing the adequacy of natural science information - a Bayesian approach
    • Adams RM, Crocker TD, Katz RW (1984) Assessing the adequacy of natural science information - a Bayesian approach. Rev Econ Stat 66:568-575
    • (1984) Rev Econ Stat , vol.66 , pp. 568-575
    • Adams, R.M.1    Crocker, T.D.2    Katz, R.W.3
  • 3
    • 54949114670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 °N in the Atlantic
    • Baehr J, Keller K, Marotzke J (2007a) Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 °N in the Atlantic. Clim Change, http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9153-z
    • (2007) Clim Change
    • Baehr, J.1    Keller, K.2    Marotzke, J.3
  • 4
    • 84872984858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global optimization of an observing system design for the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
    • (in review). Available at
    • Baehr J, McInerney D, Keller K, Marotzke J (2007) Global optimization of an observing system design for the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, J Atmos Oceanic Technol (in review). Available at: http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/publications.html
    • (2007) J Atmos Oceanic Technol
    • Baehr, J.1    McInerney, D.2    Keller, K.3    Marotzke, J.4
  • 5
    • 84873012546 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observing oxygen improves the detection capabilities of an ocean observation array
    • (in review). Available at
    • Brennan C, Matear R, Keller K (2007) Observing oxygen improves the detection capabilities of an ocean observation array. J Geophys Res Oceans (in review). Available at: http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/ publications.html
    • (2007) J Geophys Res Oceans
    • Brennan, C.1    Matear, R.2    Keller, K.3
  • 6
    • 0028974495 scopus 로고
    • Analysis of short-time series - Correcting for autocorrelation
    • Bence JR (1995) Analysis of short-time series - correcting for autocorrelation. Ecology 76:628-639
    • (1995) Ecology , vol.76 , pp. 628-639
    • Bence, J.R.1
  • 9
    • 33846929503 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards the probability of rapid climate change
    • In: Schellnhuber HJ (ed) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Challenor PG, Hankin RKS, March R (2006) Towards the probability of rapid climate change. In: Schellnhuber HJ (ed) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • (2006) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
    • Challenor, P.G.1    Hankin, R.K.S.2    March, R.3
  • 10
    • 0042190515 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of decadal variations in the thermohaline circulation and climate
    • Collins M, Sinha B (2003) Predictability of decadal variations in the thermohaline circulation and climate. Geophys Res Lett 30:1306
    • (2003) Geophys Res Lett , vol.30 , pp. 1306
    • Collins, M.1    Sinha, B.2
  • 11
    • 26844462202 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled general circulation model: Unforced variations versus forced changes
    • Dai AG, Hu A, Meehl GA, Washington WM, Strand WG (2005) Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled general circulation model: unforced variations versus forced changes. J Clim 18(16):3270-3293
    • (2005) J Clim , vol.18 , Issue.16 , pp. 3270-3293
    • Dai, A.G.1    Hu, A.2    Meehl, G.A.3    Washington, W.M.4    Strand, W.G.5
  • 12
    • 0033809760 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere
    • Delworth TL, Mann ME (2000) Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 16:661-676
    • (2000) Clim Dyn , vol.16 , pp. 661-676
    • Delworth, T.L.1    Mann, M.E.2
  • 13
    • 0034130859 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric surface flux forcing
    • Delworth TL, Greatbatch RJ (2000) Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric surface flux forcing. J Clim 13(9):1481-1495
    • (2000) J Clim , vol.13 , Issue.9 , pp. 1481-1495
    • Delworth, T.L.1    Greatbatch, R.J.2
  • 14
    • 0033373383 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of transient surface fluxes on North Atlantic overturning in a coupled GCM climate change experiment
    • Dixon KW, Delworth TL, Spelman MJ, Stouffer RJ (1999) The influence of transient surface fluxes on North Atlantic overturning in a coupled GCM climate change experiment. Geophys Res Lett 26:2749-2752
    • (1999) Geophys Res Lett , vol.26 , pp. 2749-2752
    • Dixon, K.W.1    Delworth, T.L.2    Spelman, M.J.3    Stouffer, R.J.4
  • 15
    • 0002276308 scopus 로고
    • Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty
    • Draper D (1995) Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. J Roy Stat Soc Ser B Methodol 57:45-97
    • (1995) J Roy Stat Soc Ser B Methodol , vol.57 , pp. 45-97
    • Draper, D.1
  • 16
    • 0031166563 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advanced data assimilation for strongly nonlinear dynamics
    • Evensen G (1997) Advanced data assimilation for strongly nonlinear dynamics. Monthly Weather Rev 125:1342-1354
    • (1997) Monthly Weather Rev , vol.125 , pp. 1342-1354
    • Evensen, G.1
  • 17
    • 0346216924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st. century
    • doi: 10.1029/2003GL017826
    • Fichefet T, Poncin C, Goosse H, Huybrechts P, Janssens I, Le Treut H (2003) Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st. century. Geophys Res Lett 30. doi: 10.1029/2003GL017826
    • (2003) Geophys Res Lett , pp. 30
    • Fichefet, T.1    Poncin, C.2    Goosse, H.3    Huybrechts, P.4    Janssens, I.5    Le Treut, H.6
  • 18
    • 0141902740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Error budget of inverse box models: The North Atlantic
    • Ganachaud A (2003) Error budget of inverse box models: The North Atlantic. J Atmos Oceanic Technol 20:1641-1655
    • (2003) J Atmos Oceanic Technol , vol.20 , pp. 1641-1655
    • Ganachaud, A.1
  • 19
    • 0035843151 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model
    • Ganopolski A, Rahmstorf S (2001) Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model. Nature 409:153-158
    • (2001) Nature , vol.409 , pp. 153-158
    • Ganopolski, A.1    Rahmstorf, S.2
  • 20
    • 33748848850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayes linear calibrated prediction for complex systems
    • Goldstein M, Rougier JC (2006) Bayes linear calibrated prediction for complex systems. J Am Stat Assoc 101:1132-1143
    • (2006) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.101 , pp. 1132-1143
    • Goldstein, M.1    Rougier, J.C.2
  • 22
    • 0030621009 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability
    • Griffies SM, Bryan K (1997) Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science 275:181-184
    • (1997) Science , vol.275 , pp. 181-184
    • Griffies, S.M.1    Bryan, K.2
  • 23
    • 27544463979 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Introducing BACCO, an R bundle for Bayesian analysis of computer code output
    • Hankin RKS (2005) Introducing BACCO, an R bundle for Bayesian analysis of computer code output. J Stat Softw 14(16):21
    • (2005) J Stat Softw , vol.14 , Issue.16 , pp. 21
    • Hankin, R.K.S.1
  • 24
    • 0036689332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of paleo-data in a simple Earth system model
    • Hargreaves JC, Annan JD (2002) Assimilation of paleo-data in a simple Earth system model. Clim Dyn 19:371-381
    • (2002) Clim Dyn , vol.19 , pp. 371-381
    • Hargreaves, J.C.1    Annan, J.D.2
  • 25
    • 20844440745 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using ensemble prediction methods to examine regional climate variation under global warming scenarios
    • Hargreaves JC, Annan JD (2006) Using ensemble prediction methods to examine regional climate variation under global warming scenarios. Ocean Model 11:174-192
    • (2006) Ocean Model , vol.11 , pp. 174-192
    • Hargreaves, J.C.1    Annan, J.D.2
  • 26
    • 12744278428 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter
    • Hargreaves JC, Annan JD, Edwards NR, Marsh R (2004) An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter. Clim Dyn 23:745-760
    • (2004) Clim Dyn , vol.23 , pp. 745-760
    • Hargreaves, J.C.1    Annan, J.D.2    Edwards, N.R.3    Marsh, R.4
  • 27
    • 0030838981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimation and assimilation into models
    • Harmon R, Challenor P (1997) A Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimation and assimilation into models. Ecol Model 101:41-59
    • (1997) Ecol Model , vol.101 , pp. 41-59
    • Harmon, R.1    Challenor, P.2
  • 28
    • 77956890234 scopus 로고
    • Monte-Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications
    • Hastings WK (1970) Monte-Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 57:97-109
    • (1970) Biometrika , vol.57 , pp. 97-109
    • Hastings, W.K.1
  • 29
    • 0027847782 scopus 로고
    • Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate-change
    • Hasselmann K (1993) Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate-change. J Clim 6(10):1957-1971
    • (1993) J Clim , vol.6 , Issue.10 , pp. 1957-1971
    • Hasselmann, K.1
  • 30
    • 16644399750 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting
    • Held H, Kleinen T (2004) Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting. Geophys Res Lett 31(23):L23207
    • (2004) Geophys Res Lett , vol.31 , Issue.23
    • Held, H.1    Kleinen, T.2
  • 31
    • 0034523469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of rising atmospheric CO 2 on simulated sea ice induced thermohaline circulation variability
    • Holland MM, Brasket AJ, Weaver AJ (2000) The impact of rising atmospheric CO 2 on simulated sea ice induced thermohaline circulation variability. Geophys Res Lett 27(10):1519-1522
    • (2000) Geophys Res Lett , vol.27 , Issue.10 , pp. 1519-1522
    • Holland, M.M.1    Brasket, A.J.2    Weaver, A.J.3
  • 32
    • 4544374979 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detecting thermohaline circulation changes from ocean properties in a coupled model
    • Hu AX, Meehl GA, Han WQ (2004) Detecting thermohaline circulation changes from ocean properties in a coupled model. Geophys Res Lett 31:L13204
    • (2004) Geophys Res Lett , vol.31
    • Hu, A.X.1    Meehl, G.A.2    Han, W.Q.3
  • 33
    • 1942453071 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trends in marine dissolved oxygen: Implications for ocean circulation changes and the carbon budget
    • Joos F, Plattner G-K, Stocker TF, Körtzinger A, Wallace DWR (2003) Trends in marine dissolved oxygen: Implications for ocean circulation changes and the carbon budget. EOS 84:197-204
    • (2003) EOS , vol.84 , pp. 197-204
    • Joos, F.1    Plattner, G.-K.2    Stocker, T.F.3    Körtzinger, A.4    Wallace, D.W.R.5
  • 34
    • 3042686885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth
    • Keller K, Bolker BM, Bradford DF (2004) Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. J Environ Econ Manage 48:723-741
    • (2004) J Environ Econ Manage , vol.48 , pp. 723-741
    • Keller, K.1    Bolker, B.M.2    Bradford, D.F.3
  • 35
    • 33846901351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early detection of changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Implications for the design of ocean observation systems
    • Keller K, Deutsch C, Hall MG, Bradford DF (2007a) Early detection of changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: implications for the design of ocean observation systems. J Clim 20:145-157
    • (2007) J Clim , vol.20 , pp. 145-157
    • Keller, K.1    Deutsch, C.2    Hall, M.G.3    Bradford, D.F.4
  • 36
    • 54949136074 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Managing the risks of climate thresholds: Uncertainties and information needs
    • Keller K, Schlesinger M, Yohe G (2007b) Managing the risks of climate thresholds: Uncertainties and information needs. Clim Change. http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9114-6
    • (2007) Clim Change
    • Keller, K.1    Schlesinger, M.2    Yohe, G.3
  • 38
    • 0036140084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Possible biological or physical explanations for decadal scale trends in North Pacific nutrient concentrations and oxygen utilization
    • Keller K, Slater R, Bender M, Key RM (2002) Possible biological or physical explanations for decadal scale trends in North Pacific nutrient concentrations and oxygen utilization. Deep-Sea-Res II 49:345-362
    • (2002) Deep-Sea-Res II , vol.49 , pp. 345-362
    • Keller, K.1    Slater, R.2    Bender, M.3    Key, R.M.4
  • 39
    • 0033779681 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy
    • Keller K, Tan K, Morel FMM, Bradford DF (2000) Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy. Clim Change 47:17-43
    • (2000) Clim Change , vol.47 , pp. 17-43
    • Keller, K.1    Tan, K.2    Morel, F.M.M.3    Bradford, D.F.4
  • 41
    • 0242482780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth system: Application to the thermohaline circulation
    • Kleinen T, Held H, Petschel-Held G (2003) The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth system: Application to the thermohaline circulation. Ocean Dyn 53:53-63
    • (2003) Ocean Dyn , vol.53 , pp. 53-63
    • Kleinen, T.1    Held, H.2    Petschel-Held, G.3
  • 43
    • 0142230508 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks
    • Knutti R, Stocker TF, Joos F, Plattner GK (2003) Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks. Clim Dyn 21:257-272
    • (2003) Clim Dyn , vol.21 , pp. 257-272
    • Knutti, R.1    Stocker, T.F.2    Joos, F.3    Plattner, G.K.4
  • 44
    • 0034210560 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical stabilization of the thermohaline circulation in a greenhouse warming simulation
    • Latif M, Roeckner E, Mikolajewski U, Voss R (2000) Tropical stabilization of the thermohaline circulation in a greenhouse warming simulation. J Clim 13:1809-1813
    • (2000) J Clim , vol.13 , pp. 1809-1813
    • Latif, M.1    Roeckner, E.2    Mikolajewski, U.3    Voss, R.4
  • 46
    • 0037076360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new decision sciences for complex systems
    • Lempert RJ (2002) A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:7309-7313
    • (2002) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA , vol.99 , pp. 7309-7313
    • Lempert, R.J.1
  • 47
    • 84873010578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Working paper, Hamburg University, Department of Economics, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (ZMAW), pp 14. Available at
    • Link PM, Tol RSJ (2006) The economic impact of a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation: An application of fund. Working paper, Hamburg University, Department of Economics, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (ZMAW), pp 14. Available at http://www.uni-hamburg.de/Wiss/FB/15/Sustainability/ Working_Papers.htm
    • (2006) The Economic Impact of A Slowdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: An Application of Fund
    • Link, P.M.1    Tol, R.S.J.2
  • 48
    • 0032764306 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model. A phase-space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability
    • Lohmann G, Schneider J (1999) Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model. A phase-space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. Tellus Series A-Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 51:326-336
    • (1999) Tellus Series A-Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr , vol.51 , pp. 326-336
    • Lohmann, G.1    Schneider, J.2
  • 49
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J Atmos Sci 20:130-141
    • (1963) J Atmos Sci , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 50
    • 0002105825 scopus 로고
    • Climate Predictability
    • In: World Meteorological Organization, Washington
    • Lorenz EN (1975) Climate Predictability. In: The physical basis of climate modeling, World Meteorological Organization, Washington
    • (1975) The Physical Basis of Climate Modeling
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 51
    • 0028195351 scopus 로고
    • Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide
    • Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1994) Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. J Clim 7:5-23
    • (1994) J Clim , vol.7 , pp. 5-23
    • Manabe, S.1    Stouffer, R.J.2
  • 52
    • 0034652114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability
    • Marotzke J (2000) Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 97:1347-1350
    • (2000) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA , vol.97 , pp. 1347-1350
    • Marotzke, J.1
  • 55
    • 1942435219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes
    • McManus JF, Francois R, Gherardi JM, Keigwin LD, Brown-Leger S (2004) Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes. Nature 428:834-837
    • (2004) Nature , vol.428 , pp. 834-837
    • McManus, J.F.1    Francois, R.2    Gherardi, J.M.3    Keigwin, L.D.4    Brown-Leger, S.5
  • 57
    • 0036635368 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stabilization of climate regimes by noise in a simple model of the thermohaline circulation
    • Monahan AH (2002) Stabilization of climate regimes by noise in a simple model of the thermohaline circulation. J Phys Oceanogr 32:2072-2085
    • (2002) J Phys Oceanogr , vol.32 , pp. 2072-2085
    • Monahan, A.H.1
  • 59
    • 0037438981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference
    • Qian SS, Stow CA, Borsuk ME (2003) On Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference. Ecol Model 159(2-3):269-277
    • (2003) Ecol Model , vol.159 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 269-277
    • Qian, S.S.1    Stow, C.A.2    Borsuk, M.E.3
  • 60
    • 0242535102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and the management of multistate ecosystems: An apparently rational route to collapse
    • Peterson GD, Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2003) Uncertainty and the management of multistate ecosystems: An apparently rational route to collapse. Ecology 84:1403-1411
    • (2003) Ecology , vol.84 , pp. 1403-1411
    • Peterson, G.D.1    Carpenter, S.R.2    Brock, W.A.3
  • 61
    • 1242281714 scopus 로고
    • The number of iterations, convergence diagnostics, and generic Metropolis algorithms
    • In: Gilks WR, Spiegelhalter DJ, Richardson S (eds) Chapman and Hall, London
    • Raftery AE, Lewis SM (1995) The number of iterations, convergence diagnostics, and generic Metropolis algorithms. In: Gilks WR, Spiegelhalter DJ, Richardson S (eds) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Praxis. Chapman and Hall, London, pp 115-130
    • (1995) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Praxis , pp. 115-130
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Lewis, S.M.2
  • 62
    • 0032821316 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model
    • Rahmstorf S, Ganopolski A (1999) Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model. Clim Change 43:353-367
    • (1999) Clim Change , vol.43 , pp. 353-367
    • Rahmstorf, S.1    Ganopolski, A.2
  • 63
    • 15244350271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thermohaline circulation changes: A question of risk assessment - an editorial review essay
    • Rahmstorf S, Zickfeld K (2005) Thermohaline circulation changes: A question of risk assessment-an editorial review essay. Clim Change 68:241-247
    • (2005) Clim Change , vol.68 , pp. 241-247
    • Rahmstorf, S.1    Zickfeld, K.2
  • 67
    • 0000629644 scopus 로고
    • Theories of decision-making in economics and behavioral-science
    • Simon HA (1959) Theories of decision-making in economics and behavioral-science. Am Econ Rev 49:253-283
    • (1959) Am Econ Rev , vol.49 , pp. 253-283
    • Simon, H.A.1
  • 68
    • 0002537922 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Algorithm 808: Arfit - A Matlab package for the estimation of parameters and eigenmodes of multivariate autoregressive models
    • Schneider T, Neumaier A (2001) Algorithm 808: Arfit - a Matlab package for the estimation of parameters and eigenmodes of multivariate autoregressive models. ACM Trans Math Softw 27:58-65
    • (2001) ACM Trans Math Softw , vol.27 , pp. 58-65
    • Schneider, T.1    Neumaier, A.2
  • 69
    • 0035218547 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rates of North Atlantic Deep water formation calculated from chlorofluorocarbon inventories
    • Smethie WM, Fine RA (2001) Rates of North Atlantic Deep water formation calculated from chlorofluorocarbon inventories. Deep Sea Res 48:189-215
    • (2001) Deep Sea Res , vol.48 , pp. 189-215
    • Smethie, W.M.1    Fine, R.A.2
  • 70
    • 0034302772 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reducing uncertainty in site characterization using Bayes Monte Carlo methods
    • Sohn MD, Small MJ, Pantazidou M (2000) Reducing uncertainty in site characterization using Bayes Monte Carlo methods. J Environ Eng ASCE 126(10):893-902
    • (2000) J Environ Eng ASCE , vol.126 , Issue.10 , pp. 893-902
    • Sohn, M.D.1    Small, M.J.2    Pantazidou, M.3
  • 71
    • 0033401291 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abrupt climate changes: From the past to the future - a review
    • Stocker TF (1999) Abrupt climate changes: From the past to the future - a review. Int J Earth Sci 88:365-374
    • (1999) Int J Earth Sci , vol.88 , pp. 365-374
    • Stocker, T.F.1
  • 72
    • 0000248310 scopus 로고
    • Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow
    • Stommel H (1961) Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus 13:224-230
    • (1961) Tellus , vol.13 , pp. 224-230
    • Stommel, H.1
  • 74
    • 0015731803 scopus 로고
    • Relative operating characteristic in psychology
    • Swets JA (1973) Relative operating characteristic in psychology. Science 182:990-1000
    • (1973) Science , vol.182 , pp. 990-1000
    • Swets, J.A.1
  • 75
    • 0033801058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Noise-induced transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation
    • Timmermann A, Lohmann G (2000) Noise-induced transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation. J Phys Oceanogr 30:1891-1900
    • (2000) J Phys Oceanogr , vol.30 , pp. 1891-1900
    • Timmermann, A.1    Lohmann, G.2
  • 76
    • 4644316328 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Timely detection of anthropogenic change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
    • Vellinga M, Wood RA (2004) Timely detection of anthropogenic change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett 31:L14203
    • (2004) Geophys Res Lett , vol.31
    • Vellinga, M.1    Wood, R.A.2
  • 78
    • 38849146616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the probability distributions from complex models with bifurcations: The case of ocean circulation collapse, in Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
    • Report Number 133. MIT, Boston
    • Webster M, Scott J, Sokolov A, Stone P (2006) Estimating the probability distributions from complex models with bifurcations: The case of ocean circulation collapse, in Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report Number 133. MIT, Boston
    • (2006)
    • Webster, M.1    Scott, J.2    Sokolov, A.3    Stone, P.4
  • 79
    • 0000613410 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts
    • Wilks DS (2001) A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts. Meteorol Appl 8:209-219
    • (2001) Meteorol Appl , vol.8 , pp. 209-219
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 80
    • 33644590971 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abrupt climate change: An alternative view
    • Wunsch C (2006) Abrupt climate change: An alternative view. Quaternary Res 65:191-203
    • (2006) Quaternary Res , vol.65 , pp. 191-203
    • Wunsch, C.1
  • 81
    • 0000699401 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of the regression model with autocorrelated errors
    • Zellner A, Tian GC (1964) Bayesian analysis of the regression model with autocorrelated errors. J Am Stat Assoc 59:763-778
    • (1964) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.59 , pp. 763-778
    • Zellner, A.1    Tian, G.C.2
  • 82
    • 34248519187 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variability regimes of simulated Atlantic MOC
    • (21, L21603 Artn l21603)
    • Zhu XH, Fraedrich K, Blender R (2006) Variability regimes of simulated Atlantic MOC. Geophys Res Lett 33(21, L21603 Artn l21603)
    • (2006) Geophys Res Lett , vol.33
    • Zhu, X.H.1    Fraedrich, K.2    Blender, R.3
  • 83
    • 34247195097 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Present state and future fate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation as viewed by experts
    • Zickfeld K, Levermann A, Morgan MG, Kuhlbrodt T, Rahmstorf S, Keith DW (2007) Present state and future fate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation as viewed by experts. Clim Change 82:235-265
    • (2007) Clim Change , vol.82 , pp. 235-265
    • Zickfeld, K.1    Levermann, A.2    Morgan, M.G.3    Kuhlbrodt, T.4    Rahmstorf, S.5    Keith, D.W.6
  • 84
    • 4944234191 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A low-order model for the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to climate change
    • Zickfeld K, Slawig T, Rahmstorf S (2004) A low-order model for the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to climate change. Ocean Dyn 54:8-26
    • (2004) Ocean Dyn , vol.54 , pp. 8-26
    • Zickfeld, K.1    Slawig, T.2    Rahmstorf, S.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.