Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past

Memory

Volumn 11, Issue 4-5, 2003, Pages 357-377

  Hertwig, Ralph ^a,b   Fanselow, Carola ^b   Hoffrage, Ulrich ^b  

^a Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY; ARTICLE; ASSOCIATIVE MEMORY; COGNITION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONTROLLED STUDY; DECISION MAKING; EMPIRICISM; HUMAN; INFORMATION PROCESSING; INFORMATION RETRIEVAL; MENTAL TASK; META ANALYSIS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; PROCESS MODEL; RECALL;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; CUES; FEEDBACK; HUMANS; JUDGMENT; KNOWLEDGE; MENTAL RECALL; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; PROBABILITY;

EID: 0042991333     PISSN: 09658211     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09658210244000595     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Anderson, J.R., & Schooler, L.J. (1991). Reflections of the environment in memory. Psychological Science, 2, 396-408.
2. Arkes, H.R., Wortmann, R.L., Saville, P.D., & Harkness, A.R. (1981). Hindsight bias among physicians: Weighing the likelihood of diagnoses. Journal of Applied Psychology, 66, 252-254.
3. Bjork, E.L., & Bjork, R.A. (1988). On the adaptive aspects of retrieval failure in autobiographical memory. In M.M. Gruneberg, P.E. Morris & R.N. Sykes (Eds.), Practical aspects of memory: Current research and issues, Vol. I: Memory in everyday life (pp. 283-288). New York: Wiley.
4. Blank, H., Fischer, V., & Erdfelder, E. (2003). Hindsight bias in political elections. Memory, 11, 491-504.
5. Bröder, A. (2000). Assessing the empirical validity of the "Take The Best" heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 1332-1346.
6. Brunswik, E. (1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. International Encyclopedia of Unified Science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
7. Buchanan, M. (2000). Ubiquity. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
8. Bukszar, E., & Connolly, T. (1988). Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience. Academy of Management Journal, 31, 628-641.
9. Campbell, J.E., & Mann, T.E. (1996). Forecasting the presidential election: What can we learn from the models? The Brookings Review, 14, 26-31.
10. Chase, W.G., & Simon, H.A. (1973). Perception in chess. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 55-81.
11. Chi, M.T.H., Feltovitch, P.J., & Glaser, R. (1981). Categorization of physics problems by experts and novices. Cognitive Science, 5, 121-152.
12. Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J., & Beach, L.R. (1984). The citation bias: Fad and fashion in the judgment and decision literature. American Psychologist, 39, 75-78.
13. Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J., & Willham, C.F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 48, 147-168.
14. Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc.
15. Dawes, R.M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571-582.
16. de Groot, A.D. (1965). Thought and choice in chess. The Hague: Mouton (first edition in Dutch, 1946).
17. Dhami, M.K., Hertwig, R., & Hoffrage, U. (2003). The role of representative design and sampling in an ecological approach to cognition. Manuscript submitted for publication.
18. Einhorn, H.J., & Hogarth, R.M. (1975). Unit weighting schemes for decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 13, 171-192.
19. Erdfelder, E., & Buchner, A. (1998). Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24, 387-414.
20. Ericsson, K.A., & Chase, W.G. (1982). Exceptional memory. American Scientist 70, 607-615.
21. Ericsson, K.A., & Kintsch, W. (1995). Long-term working memory. Psychological Review, 102, 211-245.
22. Ericsson, K.A., & Staszewski, J.J. (1989). Skilled memory and expertise: Mechanisms of exceptional performance. In D. Klahr & K. Kotovsky (Eds.), Complex information processing: The impact of Herbert A. Simon (pp. 235-267). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
23. Fischhoff, B. (1982a). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422-444). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
24. Fischhoff, B. (1982b). For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 335-351). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
25. Gigerenzer, G., Czerlinski, J., & Martignon, L. (1999a). How good are fast and frugal heuristics? In J. Shanteau, B.A. Mellers, & D.A. Schum (Eds.), Decision science and technology: Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards (pp. 81-103). Norwell, MA: Kluwer.
26. Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D.G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103, 650-669.
27. Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D.G. (1999). Betting on one good reason: The Take The Best heuristic. In G. Gigerenzer, P.M. Todd, & the ABC Research Group, Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 75-95 . New York: Oxford University Press.
28. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
29. Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P.M., & the ABC Research Group. (1999b). Simple heuristics that make us smart. New York: Oxford University Press.
30. Ginzburg, L.R., Janson, C., & Ferson, S. (1996). Judgment under uncertainty: Evolution may not favor a probabilistic calculus. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 24-25.
31. Green, L., & Mehr, D.R. (1997). What alters physicians' decisions to admit to the coronary care unit? The Journal of Family Practice, 45, 219-226.
32. Hawkins, S.A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgment of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 311-327.
33. Heisenberg, W.K. (1971). Physics and beyond: Encounters and conversations. New York: Harper & Row.
34. Hertwig, R., Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1997). The reiteration effect in hindsight bias. Psychological Review, 104, 194-202.
35. Hertwig, R., & Hoffrage, U. (2001). Empirische Evidenz für einfache Heuristiken: Eine Antwort auf Bröder [Empirical evidence for simple heuristics: A response to Bröder]. Psychologische Rundschau, 52, 162-165.
36. Hertwig, R., & Todd, P.M. (in press). More is not always better: The benefits of cognitive limits. In D. Hardman & L. Macchi (Eds.), Thinking: Psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment and decision making. New York: Wiley.
37. Hoffrage, U., & Hertwig, R. (1999). Hindsight Bias: A price worth paying for fast and frugal memory. In G. Gigerenzer, P.M. Todd, & the ABC Research Group, Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp 191-208). New York: Oxford University Press.
38. Hoffrage, U., Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Hindsight bias: A by-product of knowledge updating? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 566-581.
39. Huntford, R. (1999). The last place on earth. New York: Modern Library.
40. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39, 341-350.
41. Larkin, J., McDermott, J., Simon, D.P., & Simon, H.A. (1980). Expert and novice performance in solving physics problems. Science, 208, 1335-1342.
42. Lichtman, A.J. (1996). The keys to the White House, 1996. Lanham, MD: Madison Books.
43. Mazursky, D., & Ofir, C. (1990). "I could never have expected it to happen": The reversal of the hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46, 20-33.
44. Ofir, C., & Mazursky, D. (1997). Does a surprising outcome reinforce or reverse the hindsight bias? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 51-57.
45. Pezzo, M. (2003). Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias? Memory, 11, 421-441.
46. Pohl, R.F. (1992). Der Rückschau-Fehler: Systematische Verfälschung der Erinnerung bei Experten und Novizen [Hindsight bias: Systematic distortions of the memory of experts and laymen]. Kognitionswissenschaft, 3, 38-44.
47. Pohl, R.F., Eisenhauer, M., & Hardt, O. (2003). SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias. Memory, 11, 337-356.
48. Rieskamp, J., & Hoffrage, U. (1999). When do people use simple heuristics, and how can we tell? In G. Gigerenzer, P.M. Todd, & the ABC Research Group, Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 141-167). New York: Oxford University Press.
49. Roese, N.J., & Olson, J.M. (1996). Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 32, 197-227.
50. Schwarz, S., & Stahlberg, D. (2003). Strength of hindsight bias as a consequence of meta-cognitions. Memory, 11, 395-410.
51. Shanteau, J. (1992). Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 53, 252-266.
52. Simon, H.A., & Barenfeld, M. (1969). Information-processing analysis of perceptual processes in problem solving. Psychological Review, 76, 473-483.
53. Slegers, D.W., Brake, G.L., & Doherty, M.E. (2000). Probabilistic mental models with continuous predictors. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 81, 98-114.
54. Solomon, S. (2001). The coldest march: Scott's fatal Antarctic expedition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
55. Stahlberg, D., & Maass, A. (1998). Hindsight bias: Impaired memory or biased reconstruction? In W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.), European review of social psychology (Vol. 8, pp. 105-132). New York: Wiley.
56. Synodinos, N.E. (1986). Hindsight distortion: "I knew-it-all along and I was sure about it." Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 16, 107-117.
57. Tulving, E. (2002). Episodic memory: From mind to brain. Annual Review of Psychology, 53, 1-25.
58. Wendt, D. (1993). No hindsight bias ("knew-it-all-along effect") during province parliament elections in Schleswig-Holstein in 1988 and 1992. Zeitschrift für Sozialpsychologie, 24, 273-279.
59. Werth, L., & Strack, F. (2003). An inferential approach to the knew-it-all-along phenomenon. Memory, 11, 411-419.