메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 39, Issue 5, 2007, Pages 922-933

Predicting motor vehicle collisions using Bayesian neural network models: An empirical analysis

Author keywords

Artificial neural networks; Bayesian methods; Frontage roads; Negative binomial; Statistical model

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NEURAL NETWORKS; STATISTICAL METHODS;

EID: 34548502433     PISSN: 00014575     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.12.014     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (202)

References (59)
  • 1
    • 0036957692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Artificial neural networks and logit models for traffic safety analysis of toll plazas
    • Abdelwahab H.T., and Abdel-Aty M.A. Artificial neural networks and logit models for traffic safety analysis of toll plazas. Transport. Res. Rec. 1784 (2002) 115-125
    • (2002) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1784 , pp. 115-125
    • Abdelwahab, H.T.1    Abdel-Aty, M.A.2
  • 2
    • 34548504863 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bonneson, J.A., Zimmerman, K., Fitzpatrick, K., 2006. Road safety design synthesis. TTI Report 0-4703-P1. Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, TX.
  • 4
    • 0037333291 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersections
    • Chin H.C., and Quddus M.A. Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersections. Accid. Anal. Prev. 35 2 (2003) 253-259
    • (2003) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.35 , Issue.2 , pp. 253-259
    • Chin, H.C.1    Quddus, M.A.2
  • 5
    • 33644889643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identifying significant predictors of injury severity in traffic accidents using a series of artificial neural networks
    • Delen D., Sharda R., and Bessonov M. Identifying significant predictors of injury severity in traffic accidents using a series of artificial neural networks. Accid. Anal. Prev. 38 3 (2006) 434-444
    • (2006) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.38 , Issue.3 , pp. 434-444
    • Delen, D.1    Sharda, R.2    Bessonov, M.3
  • 6
    • 33644899093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the frequency of median barrier crashes on Pennsylvania interstate highways
    • Donnell E.T., and Mason J.M. Predicting the frequency of median barrier crashes on Pennsylvania interstate highways. Accid. Anal. Prev. 38 3 (2006) 590-599
    • (2006) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.38 , Issue.3 , pp. 590-599
    • Donnell, E.T.1    Mason, J.M.2
  • 7
    • 33749628129 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of two negative binomial regression techniques in developing accident prediction models
    • Washington, DC (CD-ROM)
    • El-Basyouny K., and Sayed T. Comparison of two negative binomial regression techniques in developing accident prediction models. Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 85th Annual Meeting. Washington, DC (2006) (CD-ROM)
    • (2006) Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 85th Annual Meeting
    • El-Basyouny, K.1    Sayed, T.2
  • 8
    • 33644906732 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A visual method for determining variable importance in an artificial neural network model: an empirical benchmark study
    • Fish K.E., and Blodgett J.G. A visual method for determining variable importance in an artificial neural network model: an empirical benchmark study. J. Target. Meas. Anal. Market. 11 3 (2003) 244-254
    • (2003) J. Target. Meas. Anal. Market. , vol.11 , Issue.3 , pp. 244-254
    • Fish, K.E.1    Blodgett, J.G.2
  • 9
    • 0030283787 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identification of sites with promise
    • Hauer E. Identification of sites with promise. Transport. Res. Rec. 1542 (1996) 54-60
    • (1996) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1542 , pp. 54-60
    • Hauer, E.1
  • 11
    • 34548487832 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hauer, E., 2000. Lane width and safety. Draft document. Review of Literature for the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model, Toronto, Ont. (http://www.roadsafetyresearch.com/, accessed on December 14, 2006).
  • 13
    • 17444403576 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Safety models for urban four-lane undivided urban segments
    • Hauer E., Council F.M., and Mohammedshah Y. Safety models for urban four-lane undivided urban segments. Transport. Res. Rec. 1897 (2004) 96-105
    • (2004) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1897 , pp. 96-105
    • Hauer, E.1    Council, F.M.2    Mohammedshah, Y.3
  • 14
    • 4344692541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the relationship between accident frequency and homogeneous and inhomogeneous traffic flows
    • Hiselius L.W. Estimating the relationship between accident frequency and homogeneous and inhomogeneous traffic flows. Accid. Anal. Prev. 36 6 (2004) 985-992
    • (2004) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.36 , Issue.6 , pp. 985-992
    • Hiselius, L.W.1
  • 15
    • 0024880831 scopus 로고
    • Multilayer feed-forward networks are universal approximators
    • Hornik K., Stinchcombe M., and White H. Multilayer feed-forward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2 5 (1989) 359-366
    • (1989) Neural Netw. , vol.2 , Issue.5 , pp. 359-366
    • Hornik, K.1    Stinchcombe, M.2    White, H.3
  • 16
    • 34548496346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hughes, W., Eccles, K., Harwood, D., Potts, I., Hauer, E., 2004. Development of a Highway Safety Manual. Appendix C: Highway Safety Manual Prototype Chapter: Two-Lane Highways. NCHRP Web Document 62 (Project 17-18(4)). Washington, DC (available at http://www.highwaysafetymanual.org/, accessed June 2006).
  • 17
    • 0037343226 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling accident occurrence at signalized tee intersections with special emphasis on excess zeros
    • Kumara S.S.P., and Chin H.C. Modeling accident occurrence at signalized tee intersections with special emphasis on excess zeros. Traffic Inj. Prev. 3 4 (2003) 53-57
    • (2003) Traffic Inj. Prev. , vol.3 , Issue.4 , pp. 53-57
    • Kumara, S.S.P.1    Chin, H.C.2
  • 18
    • 0036489136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents: an empirical analysis
    • Lee J., and Mannering F. Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents: an empirical analysis. Accid. Anal. Prev. 34 2 (2002) 149-161
    • (2002) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.34 , Issue.2 , pp. 149-161
    • Lee, J.1    Mannering, F.2
  • 19
    • 0041825287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An effective Bayesian neural network classifier with a comparison study to support vector machine
    • Liang F. An effective Bayesian neural network classifier with a comparison study to support vector machine. Neural Comput. 15 8 (2003) 1959-1989
    • (2003) Neural Comput. , vol.15 , Issue.8 , pp. 1959-1989
    • Liang, F.1
  • 20
    • 15244355385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian neural networks for nonlinear time series forecasting
    • Liang F. Bayesian neural networks for nonlinear time series forecasting. Stat. Comput. 15 1 (2005) 13-29
    • (2005) Stat. Comput. , vol.15 , Issue.1 , pp. 13-29
    • Liang, F.1
  • 21
    • 1542573405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-parameter evolutionary Monte Carlo with applications to Bayesian mixture models
    • Liang F., and Wong W.H. Real-parameter evolutionary Monte Carlo with applications to Bayesian mixture models. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 96 454 (2001) 653-666
    • (2001) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.96 , Issue.454 , pp. 653-666
    • Liang, F.1    Wong, W.H.2
  • 22
    • 33747691081 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter
    • Lord D. Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter. Accid. Anal. Prev. 38 4 (2006) 751-766
    • (2006) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.38 , Issue.4 , pp. 751-766
    • Lord, D.1
  • 24
    • 34548504621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lord, D., Miranda-Moreno, L.F., 2006. Effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models for modeling motor vehicle crashes: a Bayesian perspective. Working Paper. Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX.
  • 25
    • 10444235647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling crash-flow-density and crash-flow-V/C ratio for rural and urban freeway segments
    • Lord D., Manar A., and Vizioli A. Modeling crash-flow-density and crash-flow-V/C ratio for rural and urban freeway segments. Accid. Anal. Prev. 37 1 (2005) 185-199
    • (2005) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.37 , Issue.1 , pp. 185-199
    • Lord, D.1    Manar, A.2    Vizioli, A.3
  • 26
    • 10444267254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory
    • Lord D., Washington S.P., and Ivan J.N. Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory. Accid. Anal. Prev. 37 1 (2005) 35-46
    • (2005) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.37 , Issue.1 , pp. 35-46
    • Lord, D.1    Washington, S.P.2    Ivan, J.N.3
  • 27
    • 33750976179 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Further notes on the application of zero inflated models in highway safety
    • Lord D., Washington S.P., and Ivan J.N. Further notes on the application of zero inflated models in highway safety. Accid. Anal. Prev. 39 1 (2007) 53-57
    • (2007) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.39 , Issue.1 , pp. 53-57
    • Lord, D.1    Washington, S.P.2    Ivan, J.N.3
  • 29
    • 34548477738 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mackay, D.J.C., 1992. Bayesian methods for adaptive models. Ph.D. Dissertation. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California.
  • 30
    • 0030138885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comprehensive methodology for the fitting of predictive accident models
    • Maher M.J., and Summersgill I. A comprehensive methodology for the fitting of predictive accident models. Accid. Anal. Prev. 28 3 (1996) 281-296
    • (1996) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.28 , Issue.3 , pp. 281-296
    • Maher, M.J.1    Summersgill, I.2
  • 31
    • 0035484492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian neural network for severe-hail size prediction
    • Marzban C., and Witt A. A Bayesian neural network for severe-hail size prediction. Weather Forecast. 16 5 (2001) 600-610
    • (2001) Weather Forecast. , vol.16 , Issue.5 , pp. 600-610
    • Marzban, C.1    Witt, A.2
  • 33
    • 0028486329 scopus 로고
    • The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road sections: Poisson versus negative binomial regressions
    • Miaou S.P. The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road sections: Poisson versus negative binomial regressions. Accid. Anal. Prev. 26 4 (1994) 471-482
    • (1994) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.26 , Issue.4 , pp. 471-482
    • Miaou, S.P.1
  • 34
    • 1842428184 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes
    • Miaou S.-P., and Lord D. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840 (2003) 31-40
    • (2003) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1840 , pp. 31-40
    • Miaou, S.-P.1    Lord, D.2
  • 35
    • 0027786898 scopus 로고
    • Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships
    • Miaou S.P., and Lum H. Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships. Accid. Anal. Prev. 25 6 (1993) 689-709
    • (1993) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.25 , Issue.6 , pp. 689-709
    • Miaou, S.P.1    Lum, H.2
  • 36
    • 19944393621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian ranking of sites for engineering safety improvements: decision parameter, treatability concept, statistical criterion, and spatial dependence
    • Miaou S.P., and Song J.J. Bayesian ranking of sites for engineering safety improvements: decision parameter, treatability concept, statistical criterion, and spatial dependence. Accid. Anal. Prev. 37 4 (2005) 699-720
    • (2005) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.37 , Issue.4 , pp. 699-720
    • Miaou, S.P.1    Song, J.J.2
  • 37
    • 0030286178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of predictive models.
    • 2 to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of predictive models. Transport. Res. Rec. 1542 (1996) 6-13
    • (1996) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1542 , pp. 6-13
    • Miaou, S.-P.1    Lu, A.2    Lum, H.S.3
  • 38
    • 0032215995 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relationship among highway geometrics, traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies
    • Milton J., and Mannering F. The relationship among highway geometrics, traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies. Transportation 25 4 (1998) 395-413
    • (1998) Transportation , vol.25 , Issue.4 , pp. 395-413
    • Milton, J.1    Mannering, F.2
  • 39
    • 34247463824 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models
    • Mitra S., and Washington S. On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models. Accid. Anal. Prev. 39 (2007) 459-468
    • (2007) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.39 , pp. 459-468
    • Mitra, S.1    Washington, S.2
  • 40
    • 0032588286 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An analysis of urban collisions using an artificial intelligence model
    • Mussone L., Ferrari A., and Oneta M. An analysis of urban collisions using an artificial intelligence model. Accid. Anal. Prev. 31 6 (1999) 705-718
    • (1999) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.31 , Issue.6 , pp. 705-718
    • Mussone, L.1    Ferrari, A.2    Oneta, M.3
  • 41
    • 34548483734 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neal, R.M., 1995. Bayesian learning for neural networks. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario.
  • 42
    • 1842428182 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections: lessons learned
    • Oh J., Lyon C., Washington S., Persaud B., and Bared J. Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections: lessons learned. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840 (2003) 41-49
    • (2003) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1840 , pp. 41-49
    • Oh, J.1    Lyon, C.2    Washington, S.3    Persaud, B.4    Bared, J.5
  • 43
    • 17444422529 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections
    • Oh J., Washington S.P., and Choi K. Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections. Transport. Res. Rec. 1897 (2004) 18-27
    • (2004) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1897 , pp. 18-27
    • Oh, J.1    Washington, S.P.2    Choi, K.3
  • 44
    • 31044449725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces
    • Oh J., Washington S.P., and Nam D. Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces. Accid. Anal. Prev. 38 2 (2006) 346-356
    • (2006) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.38 , Issue.2 , pp. 346-356
    • Oh, J.1    Washington, S.P.2    Nam, D.3
  • 45
    • 0024713932 scopus 로고
    • A method to cope with the random errors of observed accident rates in regression analysis
    • Okamoto H., and Koshi M. A method to cope with the random errors of observed accident rates in regression analysis. Accid. Anal. Prev. 21 4 (1989) 317-332
    • (1989) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.21 , Issue.4 , pp. 317-332
    • Okamoto, H.1    Koshi, M.2
  • 47
    • 0004012044 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Payne R.W. (Ed), Lawes Agricultural Trust, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Oxford, UK
    • In: Payne R.W. (Ed). The Guide to Genstat (2000), Lawes Agricultural Trust, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Oxford, UK
    • (2000) The Guide to Genstat
  • 48
    • 0036949479 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Issues of calibration and transferability in developing accident prediction models for urban intersections
    • Persaud B.N., Lord D., and Palminaso J. Issues of calibration and transferability in developing accident prediction models for urban intersections. Transport. Res. Rec. 1784 (2002) 57-64
    • (2002) Transport. Res. Rec. , vol.1784 , pp. 57-64
    • Persaud, B.N.1    Lord, D.2    Palminaso, J.3
  • 49
    • 18144409045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of safety performance functions for two-lane highways using Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling
    • Qin X., Ivan J.N., Ravishanker N., and Liu J. Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of safety performance functions for two-lane highways using Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling. J. Transport. Eng. 131 5 (2005) 345-351
    • (2005) J. Transport. Eng. , vol.131 , Issue.5 , pp. 345-351
    • Qin, X.1    Ivan, J.N.2    Ravishanker, N.3    Liu, J.4
  • 50
    • 31044440396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian neural network approach to estimating the energy equivalent speed
    • Riviere C., Lauret P., Ramsamy J.F.M., and Page Y. A Bayesian neural network approach to estimating the energy equivalent speed. Accid. Anal. Prev. 38 2 (2006) 248-259
    • (2006) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.38 , Issue.2 , pp. 248-259
    • Riviere, C.1    Lauret, P.2    Ramsamy, J.F.M.3    Page, Y.4
  • 52
    • 0009953884 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ranking and selecting motor vehicle accident sites by using a hierarchical Bayesian model
    • Schluter P.J., Deely J.J., and Nicholson A.J. Ranking and selecting motor vehicle accident sites by using a hierarchical Bayesian model. Statistician 46 3 (1997) 293-316
    • (1997) Statistician , vol.46 , Issue.3 , pp. 293-316
    • Schluter, P.J.1    Deely, J.J.2    Nicholson, A.J.3
  • 53
    • 0029318130 scopus 로고
    • Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies
    • Shankar V., Mannering F., and Barfield W. Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies. Accid. Anal. Prev. 27 3 (1995) 371-389
    • (1995) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.27 , Issue.3 , pp. 371-389
    • Shankar, V.1    Mannering, F.2    Barfield, W.3
  • 54
    • 0031279422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling accident frequencies as zero-altered probability processes: an empirical inquiry
    • Shankar V., Milton J., and Mannering F. Modeling accident frequencies as zero-altered probability processes: an empirical inquiry. Accid. Anal. Prev. 29 6 (1997) 829-837
    • (1997) Accid. Anal. Prev. , vol.29 , Issue.6 , pp. 829-837
    • Shankar, V.1    Milton, J.2    Mannering, F.3
  • 55
    • 28044460320 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian multivariate spatial models for roadway traffic crash mapping
    • Song J.J., Gosh M., Miaou S.-P., and Malik B. Bayesian multivariate spatial models for roadway traffic crash mapping. J. Multivar. Anal. 97 1 (2006) 246-273
    • (2006) J. Multivar. Anal. , vol.97 , Issue.1 , pp. 246-273
    • Song, J.J.1    Gosh, M.2    Miaou, S.-P.3    Malik, B.4
  • 56
    • 17444408530 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hierarchical Bayesian models for multiple count data
    • Tunaru R. Hierarchical Bayesian models for multiple count data. Aust. J. Stat. 31 2/3 (2002) 221-229
    • (2002) Aust. J. Stat. , vol.31 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 221-229
    • Tunaru, R.1
  • 57
    • 34548495154 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vogt, A., Bared, J.G., 1998. Accident Models for Two-Lane Rural Roads: Segments and Intersections. Report No. FHWA-RD-98-133. Federal Highway Administration, Mclean, Virginia.
  • 58
    • 18544380263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Many zeros does not mean zero inflation: comparing the goodness-of-fit of parametric models to multivariate abundance data
    • Warton D.I. Many zeros does not mean zero inflation: comparing the goodness-of-fit of parametric models to multivariate abundance data. Environmetrics 16 2 (2005) 275-289
    • (2005) Environmetrics , vol.16 , Issue.2 , pp. 275-289
    • Warton, D.I.1
  • 59
    • 34548492559 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the dispersion parameter of the negative binomial distribution for analyzing crash data using a Bootstrapped maximum likelihood method
    • Washington, DC
    • Zhang Y., Ye Z., and Lord D. Estimating the dispersion parameter of the negative binomial distribution for analyzing crash data using a Bootstrapped maximum likelihood method. Paper presented at the 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Washington, DC (2006)
    • (2006) Paper presented at the 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
    • Zhang, Y.1    Ye, Z.2    Lord, D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.