메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 135, Issue 7, 2007, Pages 2778-2785

Generalization of the discrete brier and ranked probability skills scores for weighted multimodel ensemble forecasts

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; METEOROLOGY; PROBABILITY; RANDOM PROCESSES;

EID: 34547678065     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR3428.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (32)

References (24)
  • 2
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
    • (1950) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 3
    • 0032453445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction
    • Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1998: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2508-2518.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.126 , pp. 2508-2518
    • Buizza, R.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 4
    • 18544362809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rational behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part II: Calibration and combination
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rational behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part II: Calibration and combination. Tellus, 57A, 234-252.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 234-252
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 5
    • 0000165587 scopus 로고
    • A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories
    • Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
    • (1969) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.8 , pp. 985-987
    • Epstein, E.S.1
  • 6
    • 18544383142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model
    • Graham, R. J., M. Gordon, P. J. McLean, S. Ineson, M. R. Huddleston, M. K. Davey, A. Brookshaw, and R. T. H. Barnes, 2005: A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model. Tellus, 57A, 320-339.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 320-339
    • Graham, R.J.1    Gordon, M.2    McLean, P.J.3    Ineson, S.4    Huddleston, M.R.5    Davey, M.K.6    Brookshaw, A.7    Barnes, R.T.H.8
  • 7
    • 18544371178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept
    • Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept. Tellus, 57A, 219-233.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 219-233
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 9
    • 0035297910 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal predictions, probabilistic verifications, and ensemble size
    • Kumar, A., A. G. Barnston, and M. P. Hoerling, 2001: Seasonal predictions, probabilistic verifications, and ensemble size. J. Climate, 14, 1671-1676.
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 1671-1676
    • Kumar, A.1    Barnston, A.G.2    Hoerling, M.P.3
  • 10
    • 2442661316 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic high-resolution forecasts of heavy precipitation over Central Europe
    • Marsigli, C., A. Montani, F. Nerozzi, and T. Paccagnella, 2004: Probabilistic high-resolution forecasts of heavy precipitation over Central Europe. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 315-322.
    • (2004) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci , vol.4 , pp. 315-322
    • Marsigli, C.1    Montani, A.2    Nerozzi, F.3    Paccagnella, T.4
  • 11
    • 3943102654 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On using "climatology" as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores
    • Mason, S. J., 2004: On using "climatology" as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1891-1895.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.132 , pp. 1891-1895
    • Mason, S.J.1
  • 12
    • 20544460690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes
    • Müller, W. A., C. Appenzeller, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and M. A. Liniger, 2005: A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes. J. Climate, 18, 1513-1523.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 1513-1523
    • Müller, W.A.1    Appenzeller, C.2    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.3    Liniger, M.A.4
  • 13
    • 0006700185 scopus 로고
    • On the ranked probability skill score
    • Murphy, A. H., 1969: On the ranked probability skill score. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 988-989.
    • (1969) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.8 , pp. 988-989
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 14
    • 0000904064 scopus 로고
    • A note on the ranked probability skill score
    • Murphy, A. H. 1971: A note on the ranked probability skill score. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 155-156.
    • (1971) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.10 , pp. 155-156
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 15
    • 3543083343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER)
    • Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872.
    • (2004) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.85 , pp. 853-872
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 16
    • 0036646424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles
    • Rajagopalan, B., U. Lall, and S. E. Zebiak, 2002: Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1792-1811.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.130 , pp. 1792-1811
    • Rajagopalan, B.1    Lall, U.2    Zebiak, S.E.3
  • 17
    • 0035473127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size
    • Richardson, D. S., 2001: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2473-2489.
    • (2001) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.127 , pp. 2473-2489
    • Richardson, D.S.1
  • 18
    • 11844296090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction
    • Robertson, A. W., U. Lall, S. E. Zebiak, and L. Goddard, 2004: Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2732-2744.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.132 , pp. 2732-2744
    • Robertson, A.W.1    Lall, U.2    Zebiak, S.E.3    Goddard, L.4
  • 19
    • 18544370386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecast assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions
    • Stephenson, D. B., C. A. S. Coelho, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and M. Balmaseda, 2005: Forecast assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions. Tellus, 57A, 253-264.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 253-264
    • Stephenson, D.B.1    Coelho, C.A.S.2    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.3    Balmaseda, M.4
  • 21
    • 27144554835 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ERA-40 re-analysis
    • Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 13l, 2961-3012.
    • (2005) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.13 l , pp. 2961-3012
    • Uppala, S.M.1
  • 22
    • 33750463098 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of moist singular vectors and horizontal resolution on short-range limited-area ensemble forecasts for two European winter storms
    • Walser, A., M. Arpagaus, C. Appenzeller, and M. Leutbecher, 2006: The impact of moist singular vectors and horizontal resolution on short-range limited-area ensemble forecasts for two European winter storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2877-2887.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.134 , pp. 2877-2887
    • Walser, A.1    Arpagaus, M.2    Appenzeller, C.3    Leutbecher, M.4
  • 23
    • 33846673525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores
    • Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2007: The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 118-124.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.135 , pp. 118-124
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Liniger, M.A.2    Appenzeller, C.3
  • 24
    • 0007952395 scopus 로고
    • Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
    • Academic Press, 467 pp
    • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. International Geophysics Series, Vol. 59, Academic Press, 467 pp.
    • (1995) International Geophysics Series , vol.59
    • Wilks, D.S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.