Bias in memory predicts bias in estimation of future task duration

Memory and Cognition

Volumn 35, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 557-564

  Roy, Michael M ^a,c   Christenfeld, Nicholas J S ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA CHAMPAIGN   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c ELIZABETHTOWN COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; FEMALE; FUTUROLOGY; HUMAN; HUMAN EXPERIMENT; MALE; MEMORY; NORMAL HUMAN; PREDICTION; RECALL; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; TASK PERFORMANCE;

EID: 34447336695     PISSN: 0090502X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3758/BF03193294     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. BEILOCK, S. L., BERTENTHAL, B. I., MCCOY, A. M., & CARR, T. H. (2004). Haste does not always make waste: Expertise, direction of attention, and speed versus accuracy in performing sensorimotor skills. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 11, 373-379.
2. BLOCK, R. A., & REED, M. A. (1978). Remembered duration: Evidence for a contextual-change hypothesis. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning & Memory, 4, 656-665.
3. BLOCK, R. A., & ZAKAY, D. (1997). Prospective and retrospective durations judgments: A meta-analytic review. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 4, 184-197.
4. BOLTZ, M. G., KUPPERMAN, C., & DUNNE, J. (1998). The role of learning in remembered duration. Memory & Cognition, 26, 903-921.
5. BUEHLER, R., & GRIFFIN, D. (2003). Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 92, 80-90.
6. BUEHLER, R., GRIFFIN, D., & MACDONALD, H. (1997). The role of motivated reasoning in optimistic time predictions. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 238-247.
7. BUEHLER, R., GRIFFIN, D., & ROSS, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 67, 366-381.
8. BUEHLER, R., GRIFFIN, D., & ROSS, M. (2002). Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. In T. D. Gilovich, D. W. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 250-270). New York: Cambridge University Press.
9. BURT, C. D. B. (1992). Reconstruction of the duration of autobiographical events. Memory & Cognition, 20, 124-132.
10. BURT, C. D. B., & KEMP, S. (1991). Retrospective duration estimation of public events. Memory & Cognition, 19, 252-262.
11. BURT, C. D. B., KEMP, S., & CONWAY, M. (2001). What happens if you retest autobiographical memory 10 years on? Memory & Cognition, 29, 127-136.
12. BYRAM, S. J. (1997). Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 3, 216-239.
13. CHASE, W. G., & SIMON, H. A. (1973). The mind's eye in chess. In W. G. Chase (Ed.), Visual information processing (pp. 215-281). New York: Academic Press.
14. COHEN, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
15. CONNOLLY, T., & DEAN, D. (1997). Decomposed versus holistic estimates of effort required for software writing tasks. Management Science 43, 1029-1045.
16. FRAISSE, P. (1963). The psychology of time (J. Leith, Trans.). New York: Harper & Row.
17. FRAISSE, P. (1984). Perception and estimation of time. Annual Review of Psychology, 35, 1-36.
18. FRANCIS-SMYTHE, J. A., & ROBERTSON, I. T (1999). On the relationship between time management and time estimation. British Journal of Psychology, 90, 333-347.
19. GRIFFIN, D., & BUEHLER, R. (1999). Frequency, probability, and prediction: Easy solutions to cognitive illusions? Cognitive Psychology, 38, 48-78.
20. HINDS, P. J. (1999). The curse of expertise: The effects of expertise and debiasing methods on predictions of novice performance. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 5, 205-221.
21. HUTTENLOCHER, J., HEDGES, L. V., & BRADBURN, N. M. (1990). Reports of elapsed time: Bounding and rounding processes in estimation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition, 16, 196-213.
22. JONES, M. R., & BOLTZ, M. (1989). Dynamic attending and responses to time. Psychological Review, 96, 459-491.
23. JØRGENSEN, M. (2004a). A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort. Journal of Systems & Software, 70, 37-60.
24. JØRGENSEN, M. (2004b). Top-down and bottom-up expert estimation of software development effort. Information & Software Technology, 46, 3-16.
25. JØRGENSEN, M., & SJØBERG, D. I. K. (2001). Impact of effort estimates on software project work. Information & Software Technology, 43, 939-948.
26. JOSEPHS, R. A., & HAHN, E. D. (1995). Bias and accuracy in estimates of task duration. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 61, 202-213.
27. KAHNEMAN, D., & TVERSKY, A. (1979). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. TIMS Studies in Management Sciences, 12, 313-327.
28. KAHNEMAN, D., & TVERSKY, A. (1982). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 414-421). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
29. KONEČNI, V. J., & EBBESEN, E. B. (1976). Distortions of estimates of numerousness and waiting time. Journal of Social Psychology, 100, 45-50.
30. KOOLE, S., & SPIJKER, M. (2000). Overcoming the planning fallacy through willpower: Effects of implementation intentions on actual and predicted task-completion times. European Journal of Social Psychology, 30, 873-888.
31. LOCKE, E. A., & LATHAM, G. P. (1990). A theory of goal setting and task performance. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
32. MOLØKKEN, K., & JØRGENSEN, M. (2005). Expert estimation of Web-development projects: Are software professionals in technical roles more optimistic than those in non-technical roles? Empirical Software Engineering, 10, 7-29.
33. NEWBY-CLARK, I. R., ROSS, M., BUEHLER, R., KOEHLER, D. J., & GRIFFIN, D. (2000). People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 171-182.
34. ORNSTEIN, R. E. (1969). On the experience of time. Hammondsworth, U.K.: Penguin.
35. PEDRI, S., & HESKETH, B. (1993). Time perception: Effects of task speed and delay. Perceptual & Motor Skills, 76, 599-608.
36. POYNTER, D. (1989). Judging the duration of time intervals: A process of remembering segments of experience. In I. Levin & D. Zakay (Eds.), Time and human cognition: A life-span perspective (pp. 305-322). Amsterdam: North-Holland.
37. ROSS, M., & WILSON A. E. (2003). Autobiographical memory and conceptions of self: Getting better all the time. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 12, 66-69.
38. ROY, M. M., CHRISTENFELD, N. J. S., & MCKENZIE, C. R. M. (2005). Underestimating the duration of future events: Memory incorrectly used or memory bias? Psychological Bulletin, 131, 738-756.
39. SANNA, L. J., & SCHWARZ, N. (2004). Integrating temporal biases: The interplay of focal thoughts and accessibility experiences. Psychological Science, 15, 474-481.
40. TAYLOR, S. E., PHAM, L. B., RIVKIN, I. D., & ARMOR, D. A. (1998). Harnessing the imagination: Mental stimulation, self-regulation, and coping. American Psychologist, 53, 429-439.
41. THOMAS, E. A. C., & WEAVER, W. B. (1975). Cognitive processing and time perception. Perception & Psychophysics, 17, 363-367.
42. VICENTE, K. J., & BREWER, W. F. (1993). Reconstructive remembering of the scientific literature. Cognition, 46, 101-128.
43. VOHS, K. D., & SCHMEICHEL, B. J. (2003). Self-regulation and the extended now: Controlling the self alters the subjective experience of time. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 85, 217-230.
44. WALLACE, M., & RABIN, A. I. (1960). Temporal experience. Psychological Bulletin, 57, 213-236.