Forecasting New Zealand mudsnail invasion range: Model comparisons using native and invaded ranges

Ecological Applications

Volumn 17, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 181-189

  Loo, Sarina E ^a   Mac Nally, Ralph ^a   Lake, P S ^a  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Biological invasions; Ecological models; Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Production (GARP); Potamopyrgus antipodarum; Time series analysis

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL INVASION; COMPARATIVE STUDY; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; FORECASTING METHOD; FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEM; GENETIC ALGORITHM; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; INVASIVE SPECIES; NATIVE SPECIES; SNAIL; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

ALGORITHM; ANIMAL; ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA; COMPARATIVE STUDY; NEW ZEALAND; NORTH AMERICA; PHYSIOLOGY; SNAIL;

ALGORITHMS; ANIMALS; AUSTRALIA; NEW ZEALAND; NORTH AMERICA; SNAILS;

AUSTRALASIA; AUSTRALIA; NEW ZEALAND; NORTH AMERICA;

GASTROPODA; POTAMOPYRGUS ANTIPODARUM;

EID: 34247117216     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(2007)017[0181:FNZMIR]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Anderson, R. P., D. Lew, and A. T. Peterson. 2003. Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecological Modelling 162:211-232.
2. Bowler, P. A. 1991. The rapid spread of the freshwater hydrobiidae snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray) in the Middle Snake River, southern Idaho. Proceedings of the Desert Fisheries Council 21:173-182.
3. Centor, R. M. 1991. The use of ROC curves and their analyses. Medical Decision Making 11:102-106.
4. Dorgelo, J. 1987. Density fluctuations in populations (1982-1986) and biological observations of Potamopyrgus jenkinsi in two trophically differing lakes. Hydrobiological Bulletin 2: 95-110.
5. Drake, J. M., and J. M. Bossenbroek. 2004. The potential distribution of zebra mussels in the United States. Bioscience 54:931-941.
6. Dybdahl, M. F., and S. L. Kane. 2005. Adaptation vs. phenotypic plasticity in the success of a clonal invader. Ecology 86:1592-1601.
7. ESRI. 1999. ArcGIS 8.3. ESRI, Redlands, California, USA.
8. Fielding, A. H., and J. F. Bell. 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24:38-49.
9. Hall, R. O., J. L. Tank, and M. F. Dybdahl. 2003. Exotic snails dominate nitrogen and carbon cycling in a highly productive stream. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 1:407-411.
10. Hanley, J. A., and B. J. McNeil. 1982. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 143:29-36.
11. Haynes, A., and B. J. R. Taylor. 1984. Food finding and food preference in Potamopyrgus antipodarum (E. A. Smith) (Gastropoda: Prosobranchia). Archiv für Hydrobiologie 100:479-491.
12. Haynes, A., B. J. R. Taylor, and M. E. Varley. 1985. The influence of the mobility of Potamopyrgus jenkinsi (Smith, E.A.) (Prosobranchia: Hydrobiidae) on its spread. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 103:497-508.
13. Hosea, R. C., and B. Finlayson. 2005. Controlling the spread of New Zealand mudsnails on wading gear. California Department of Fish and Game, Rancho Cordova, California, USA.
14. Hughes, L. 2003. Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts. Austral Ecology 28:423-443.
15. Hutchinson, G. E. 1957. Concluding remarks. Cold Springs Harbor Symposium on Quantitative Biology 22:415-427.
16. Iguchi, K., K. Matsuura, K. M. McNyset, A. T. Peterson, R. Scachetti-Pereira, K. A. Powers, D. A. Vieglais, E. O. Wiley, and T. Yodo. 2004. Predicting invasions of North American basses in Japan using native range data and a genetic algorithm. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 133:845-854.
17. Kerans, B., M. F. Dybdahl, M. M. Gangloff, and J. E. Jannot. 2005. Potamopyrgus antipodarum: distribution, density, and effects on native macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 24:123-138.
18. Kluza, D. A., and K. M. McNyset. 2005. Ecological niche modelling of aquatic invasive species. Aquatic Invaders 16:1-7.
19. Kriticos, D. J., and R. P. Randall. 2001. A comparison of systems to analyze potential weed distributions. Pages 61-79 in R. H. Groves, F. D. Panetta, and J. G. Virtue, editors. Weed risk assessment. CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia.
20. Lassen, H. H. 1975. The migration potential of freshwater snails exemplified by the dispersal of Potamopyrgus jenkinsi. Natura Jutlandica 20:237-242.
21. Leung, B., D. M. Lodge, D. Finnoff, J. F. Shogren, M. A. Lewis, and G. Lamberti. 2002. An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 269:2407-2413.
22. MacIsaac, H. J., H. A. M. Ketelaars, I. A. Grigorovich, C. W. Ramcharan, and N. D. Yan. 2000. Modeling Bythotrephes longimanus invasions in the Great Lakes basin based on its European distribution. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 149:1-21.
23. Mack, M. C., and C. M. D'Antonio. 1998. Impacts of biological invasions on disturbance regimes. Trends in Environment and Evolution 13:195-198.
24. Mack, R. N., D. Simberloff, W. M. Lonsdale, H. Evans, M. Clout, and F. Bazzaz. 2000. Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences and control. Issues in Ecology 5:1-22.
25. Mac Nally, R., and E. Fleishman. 2004. A successful predictive model of species richness based on indicator species. Conservation Biology 18:646-654.
26. Malmqvist, B., and S. Rundle. 2002. Threats to the running water ecosystems of the world. Environmental Conservation 29:134-153.
27. Maurer, B. A. 2002. Predicting species distribution and abundance: thinking within and between scales. Pages 125-132 in J. M. Scott, P. J. Heglund, M. L. Morrison, J. B. Haufler, M. G. Raphael, A. W. William, and F. B. Samson, editors. Predicting species occurrences: issues of accuracy and scale. Island Press, Washington D.C., USA.
28. McCarter, N. H. 1986. Food and energy in the diet of brown and rainbow trout from Lake Benmore, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 20:551-559.
29. McNyset, K. M. 2005. Use of ecological niche modelling to predict distributions of freshwater fish species in Kansas. Ecology of Freshwater Fish 14:243-255.
30. Michaelis, F. B. 1977. Biological features of Pupu springs. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 11:357-373.
31. Peterson, A. T. 2001. Predicting species' geographic distributions based on ecological niche modeling. The Condor 103: 599-605.
32. Peterson, A. T., and K. P. Cohoon. 1999. Sensitivity of distributional prediction algorithms to geographic data completeness. Ecological Modelling 117:159-164.
33. Peterson, A. T., M. Papes, and D. A. Kluza. 2003. Predicting the potential invasive distributions of four alien plant species in North America. Weed Science 51:863-868.
34. Peterson, A. T., and C. R. Robins. 2003. Using ecological-niche modeling to predict Barred Owl invasions with implications for Spotted Owl conservation. Conservation Biology 17: 1161-1165.
35. Peterson, A. T., and D. A. Vieglais. 2001. Predicting species invasions using ecological niche modeling: new approaches from bioinformatics attack a pressing problem. Bioscience 51:363-371.
36. Pimentel, D., L. Lach, R. Zuniga, and D. Morrison. 2000. Environmental and economic costs of nonindigenous species in the United States. BioScience 50:53-65.
37. Ponder, W. F. 1988. Potamopyrgus antipodarum - a molluscan coloniser of Europe and Australia. Journal of Molluscan Studies 54:271-285.
38. Richardson, D. M., N. Allsopp, C. M. D'Antonio, S. J. Milton, and M. Rejmánek. 2000. Plant invasions: the role of mutalisms. Biological Review 75:65-93.
39. Sala, O. E., et al. 2000. Biodiversity: global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770-1774.
40. Schreiber, E. S. G., G. P. Quinn, and P. S. Lake. 1998. Life history and population dynamics of the exotic snail Potamopyrgus antiopodarum (Prosobranchia: Hydrobiidae) in Lake Purrumbete, Victoria, Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 49:73-78.
41. Schreiber, E. S. G., G. P. Quinn, and P. S. Lake. 2002. Facilitation of native stream fauna by an invading species? Experimental investigations of the interaction of the snail, Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Hydrobiidae) with native benthic fauna. Biological Invasions 4:317-325.
42. Stockwell, D. R. B., and I. R. Noble. 1992. Induction of sets of rules from animal distribution data: a robust and informative method of analysis. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 33:385-390.
43. Stockwell, D., and D. Peters. 1999. The GARP modelling systems: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 13:143-158.
44. Stockwell, D. R. B., and A. T. Peterson. 2002. Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecological Modelling 148:1-13.
45. Underwood, E. C., R. Klinger, and P. E. Moore. 2004. Predicting patterns of non-native plant invasions in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Diversity and distributions 10:447-459.
46. Wallace, C. 1992. Parthenogenesis, sex and chromosomes in Potamopyrgus. Journal of Molluscan Studies 58:93-107.
47. Wiley, E. O., K. M. McNyset, A. T. Peterson, C. R. Robins, and A. M. Stewart. 2003. Niche modelling and geographic range predictions in the marine environment using a machine-learning algorithm. Oceanography 16:120-127.
48. Zaranko, D. T., D. G. Farara, and F. G. Thompson. 1997. Another exotic mollusc in the Laurentian Great Lakes: the New Zealand native Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray 1843) (Gastropoda, Hydrobiidae). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 54:809-814.