Economic constraints and the end of the Cold War

Cold War Endgame: Oral History, Analysis, Debates

Volumn , Issue , 2003, Pages 273-309

  Brooks, Stephen G ^a   Wohlforth, William C ^a  

^a DARTMOUTH COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33947386087     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (147)

1. Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, "Power, Globalization and the End of the Cold War: Reevaluating a Landmark Case for Ideas", International Security 25, no. 3(2000/2001):5-7.
2. Stephen G Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, "From Old Thinking to New Thinking in Qualitative Research", International Security 26, no. 4 (spring 2002).
3. Richard Ned Lebow, "Contingency, Counterfactuals, and International Systems Change", Political Science Quarterly 115, no. 4(winter 2000/2001):591-619.
4. Charles Kegley, "The Neoidealist Moment in International Studies? Realist Myths and the New International Realities", International Studies Quarterly 37, no. 2 (June 1993).
5. Coit D. Blacker, Hostage to Revolution: Gorbachev and Soviet Security Policy, 1985-1991 (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1993)
6. William Wohlforth, "Realism and the End of the Cold War", International Security 19, no. 3 (winter 1994/95).
7. Brooks and Wohlforth, "Power" 14-20
8. One percent is the CIA's calculation, reported in Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress, Measures of Soviet Gross National Product in 1982 Prices (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1990).
9. Two percent is the estimate of Russian economist G. I. Khanin, in "Ekonomicheskiy rost: Alternativnaya otsenka" [Economic growth: An alternative estimate], Kommunist 17(November 1988):83-90.
10. Vladimir Kontorovich, "Economists, Soviet Growth Slowdown and the Collapse", Europe-Asia Studies 53, no. 5(July 2001):675-95.
11. Vladimir Kontorovich, "Technological Progress and Research and Development", in Michael Ellman and Vladimir Kontorovich, eds., The Disintegration of the Soviet Economic System, (New York: Routledge, 1992).
12. Ellman and Kontorovich, The Disintegration of the Soviet Economic System, 9.
13. Noel E. Firth and James H. Noren, Soviet Defense Spending: A History of CIA Estimates, 1950-1990 (Houston: Texas A&M Press, 1998)
14. Gaddy, The Price of the Past (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1997), chap. 1.
15. Brooks and Wohlforth, "Power" 24.
16. Mikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev, Memoirs, trans. from the German edition by Wolf Jobst [which was translated into German from the Russian original by Georges Peronansky and Tatjana Varsavsky] (New York: Doubleday, 1995), 215.
17. Firth and Noren, Soviet Defense Spending, 134.
18. Michael Ellman and Vladimir Kontorovich, eds., The Destruction of the Soviet Economic System: An Insider's Account (Armonk, NY.: M. E. Sharpe, 1998), 293.
19. Stephen G. Brooks, "The Globalization of Production and International Security" (Ph. D. diss., Yale University, 2001), chap. 4.
20. Stephen Kobrin, "The Architecture of Globalization: State Sovereignty in a Networked Global Economy", in J. Dunning, ed., Governments, Globalization, and International Business (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997), 150.
21. Geoffrey Jones, The Evolution of International Business (London: Routledge, 1996), 52.
22. Jones, Evolution, 48, 54.
23. World Investment Report 1994: Transnational Corporations, Employment, and the Workplace (Geneva: United Nations, 1994), 143.
24. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries (Washington, D. C.: World Bank, 1997), 45.
25. Kobrin, "Architecture of Globalization" 149-50.
26. Peter Dicken, Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy (New York: Guilford, 1998), 229
27. Kobrin, "Architecture of Globalization" 150.
28. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 42.
29. Brooks, "Globalization", chap. 5.
30. Gaddy, Price of the Past.
31. Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, "The USSR Confronts the Information Revolution", SOV 87-10029 (May 1987), declassified and made available on CD-ROM by the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence.
32. William Odom, The Collapse of the Soviet Military (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1998), 91, 225.
33. David Dessler, "Prediction as a Criterion of Theory Appraisal in International Relations: Lessons from the Natural Sciences" (MS, William and Mary College).
34. Carol Clark, "Relative Backwardness in Eastern Europe: An Application of the Technological Gap Hypothesis", Economic Systems 17, no. 3(September 1993):170.
35. Mark Kramer, "Ideology and the Cold War", Review of International Studies 25, no. 4(October 1999):539-76.
36. Michael Ellman and Vladimir Kontorovich, "The Collapse of the Soviet System and the Memoir Literature", Europe-Asia Studies 49, no. 2 (March 1997).
37. Ellman and Kontorovich, Destruction of the Soviet Economic System; Gorbachev, Memoirs;
38. Vitaliy Ivanovich Vorotnikov, A bylo eto tak... Iz dnevnika chlena Politbyuro TsK KPSS (Moscow: Sovet veteranov knigoizdaniya, 1995);
39. Yegor Gaidar, Days of Defeat and Victory, trans. Jane Ann Miller (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1999);
40. Stanislav Shatalin, "'500 dney' i drugiye dni moyey zhizni", Nezavisimaya gazeta, March 31 and April 2, 1992;
41. Nikolai Ryzhkov, Perestroyka: istoriya predatlstv (Moscow: Novosti, 1992).
42. Firth and Noren, Soviet Defense Spending, they succeeded in capping budgetary growth, but because the economy actually declined in 1980-82, defense outlays as a percentage of GDP probably rose.
43. Aleksandr Shubin, Istoki perestroyki: 1978-1984 gg. (Moscow: [n. p.], 1997)
44. Paul Hollander, Political Will and Personal Belief: The Decline and Fall of Soviet Communism, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999).
45. Nikolay Leonov, Likholet'e (Moscow: Mezhdunarodniye otnosheniya, 1994);
46. Sergey F. Akhromeyev and G. M. Korniyenko, Glazami marshala i diplomata: Kriticheskiy vzglyad na vneshnyuyu politiku SSSR do i posle 1985-go goda (Moscow: Mezhdunarodniye otnosheniya, 1992);
47. Anatoly S. Chernyaev, My Six Years with Gorbachev, ed. and trans. Robert D. English and Elizabeth Tucker (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2000);
48. Vorotnikov, A bylo eto tak;
49. Georgiy Khosroyevich Shakhnazarov, Tsena svobody: Reformatsiya Gorbacheva glazami ego pomoshchnika (Moscow: Rossika-Zevs, 1993).
50. Chernyaev, My Six Years with Gorbachev;
51. Akhromeyev and Korniyenko, Glazami marshala i diplomata;
52. Vorotnikov, A bylo eto tak) and the twin decisions to demand hard currency for energy exports to the East European allies while reducing interference in their domestic policy choices
53. Ryzhkov, Perestroyka
54. Shakhnazarov, Tsena svobody).
55. Sergey Germanovich Sinel'nikov (-Murylev), Byudzhetnyy krizis v rossii, 1985-1995 gody (Moscow: Evraziya, 1995), 36.
56. Aleksandr Lyakhovskiy, Tragediya i Doblest' Afgana (Moscow: GPI Iskona, 1995)
57. Vladimir Shlapentokh, A Normal Totalitarian Country: How the Soviet Union Functioned and How It Collapsed (Armonk, NY.: M. E. Sharpe, 2001).
58. Chernyaev, My Six Years with Gorbachev, 193-95;
59. Akhromeyev and Korniyenko, Glazami marshala i diplomata, 55;
60. Ryzhkov, Perestroyka, 232-33;
61. Eduard Amvrosiyevich Shevardnadze, Moy vybor: v zashchitu demokratii i svobody (Moscow: Novosti, 1991), 110-11;
62. Vorotnikov, A bylo eto tak, 223.
63. Gaddy, Price of the Past, 56.
64. Hannes Adomeit, Imperial Overstretch: Germany in Soviet Policy from Stalin to Gorbachev (Baden Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1998), esp. 227
65. Charles Maier, Dissolution: The Crisis of Communism and the Collapse of East Germany (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).
66. Odom, Collapse of the Soviet Military, 225.
67. Vladimir Kryuchkov, Lichnoye delo (Moscow: Olimp, 1996), 1:273, 282;
68. Akhromeyev and Korniyenko, Glazami marshala i diplomata;
69. Aleksandr G. Savel'yev and Nikolai N. Detinov, The Big Five: Arms Control Decision-Making in the Soviet Union, trans. Dmitry Trenin (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1995).
70. William Odom, "The Soviet Military in Transition", Problems of Communism 3a (May-June 1990): 52-53, 63-64.
71. Thomas M. Nichols, The Sacred Cause: Civil-Military Conflict Over Soviet National Security (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993), 115, 116.
72. Akhromeyev and Korniyenko, Glazami marshala i diplomata, 314-15.
73. Skvortsov interview with Yazov, March 11, 1999.
74. L. G. Ivashov, Marshal Yazov (Rokovoi Avgust 91-go): Pravda o "putche" (Moscow: Biblioteka Zhurnala "Muzhestvo", 1992), chap. 2, esp. p. 27.
75. Brooks and Wohlforth, "New versus Old Thinking in Qualitative Research"
76. Jacques Lévesque, The Enigma of 1989: The USSR and the Liberation of Eastern Europe, trans. Keith Martin (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1997).
77. Karen Dawisha, Eastern Europe, Gorbachev and Reform: The Great Challenge (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), 18.
78. As Alex Pravda notes, "Advances in weapons technology had long reduced the military value of the region as a glacis"
79. Pravda, "Soviet Policy Towards Eastern Europe in Transition", in Alex Pravda, ed., The End of Outer Empire: Soviet-East European Relations in Transition, 1985-1990 (London: Sage, 1992), 5.
80. Aleksandr Bovin (in Pravda, March 23, 1990, p. 5)
81. Shakhnazarov, Tsena svobody, chap. 6.
82. Randall Stone, Satellites and Commissars: Strategy and Conflict in the Politics of Soviet-Bloc Trade (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), 134.
83. Adomeit, Imperial Overstretch.
84. Valerie Bunce, "The Empire Strikes Back: The Evolution of the Eastern Bloc from Soviet Asset to Liability", International Organization 39, no. 1(winter 1985):1-46.
85. J. F. Brown, Eastern Europe and Communist Rule (Durham: Duke University Press, 1988), 138, 129.
86. Alan Smith, "Economic Relations", in Alex Pravda, ed., The End of Outer Empire: Soviet-East European Relations in Transition, 1985-1990 (London: Sage, 1992), 82.
87. Mark Kramer, "The Soviet Union and Eastern Europe: Spheres of Influence", in Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Relations Since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996), 112
88. Stone, Satellites and Commissars, 37.
89. Thane Gustafson, Crisis Amid Plenty: The Politics of Soviet Energy Under Brezhnev and Gorbachev (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989).
90. Carol Clark, "Relative Backwardness in Eastern Europe: An Application of the Technological Gap Hypothesis", Economic Systems 17, no. 3(September 1993):167-93
91. Brown, Eastern Europe and Communist Rule, 155.
92. Smith, "Economic Relations" 77.
93. Mark Chafetz, Gorbachev, Reform, and the Brezhnev Doctrine: Soviet Policy Toward Eastern Europe, 1985-1990 (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1993), 63.
94. Vladislav Zubok, "New Evidence on the 'Soviet Factor' in the Peaceful Revolutions of 1989", Cold War International History Bulletin, no. 12/13(fall/winter 2001):7.
95. On security matters, Zubok stresses, "Gorbachev and Shevardnadze had no coherent policy at all for the Warsaw Pact" (8).
96. Adomeit, Imperial Overstretch, chap. 4.
97. Pravda, "Soviet Policy" 7.
98. Jacques Lévesque, "Soviet Approaches to Eastern Europe at the Beginning of 1989", Cold War International History Bulletin, no. 12/13(fall/winter 2001):49.
99. Leonov, Likholet'e, 281.
100. Vojtech Mastny, "The Soviet Non-Invasion of Poland in 1980-81 and the End of the Cold War", Cold War International History Project, Working Paper no. 23 (Washington, D. C., September 1998).
101. Shakhnazarov, Tsena svobody, 115.
102. Andrew O. Bennett, "Ideas and the Non-Use of Force in the End of the Cold War" (paper prepared for the Conference "Ideas and the End of the Cold War", Dickey Center, Dartmouth College, June, 2001), 17-18, and sources cited therein.
103. Zubok, "New Evidence" 10-11.
104. Kramer, "Ideology and the Cold War"
105. Lévesque, Enigma of 1989.
106. Matthew Evangelista, Unarmed Forces: The Transnational Movement to End the Cold War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1999), esp. 256.
107. Sinel'nikov, Byudzhetnyy krizis
108. David Kotz, with Fred Weir, Revolution from Above.
109. George Breslauer and Richard Ned Lebow, "Contingency and Counterfactuals: How Leaders Matter", in Richard Hermann and Richard Ned Lebow, eds., Learning from the Cold War (unpublished manuscript).
110. Jerry F. Hough, Democratization and Revolution in the USSR, 1985-1991 (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1997).
111. Gaidar, Days of Defeat and Victory.
112. Skvortsov interview with Oleg D. Baklanov, undated, Moscow (on file at the Institute of General History, Moscow, and the Mershon Center at Ohio State University, 1999).
113. Evangelista, Unarmed Forces, 15, 252, 258, 262.
114. Odom, Collapse of the Soviet Military, 92.
115. Thomas Risse, "'Let's Argue!' Communicative Action in World Politics", International Organization 54, no. 1(winter 2000):1-40;
116. "The Cold War's Endgame and German Unification", International Security 21, no. 4(spring 1997):158-85.
117. Risse, "Let's Argue!" 24.
118. Hans Hermann Hertle, "Staatsbankrott: der ökonomische Untergang des SED-Staates", Deutschland Archiv 25, no. 10(October 1992):1019-30.
119. Maier, Dissolution
120. Jeffrey Kopstein, The Politics of Economic Decline in East Germany, 1945-1989 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1997).
121. Aleksandr Galkin and Anatoly S. Chernyayev, "Pravdu, i tol'ko pravdu", Svobodnaya mysl', no. 2-3(1994):28.
122. Philip Zelikow and Condoleezza Rice, Germany Unified and Europe Transformed: A Study in Statecraft (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995);
123. Angela E. Stent, Russia and Germany Reborn: Unification, the Soviet Collapse, and the New Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999);
124. Adomeit, Imperial Overstretch.
125. Oleg Grinevskiy, "Kak nachilos' ob"yednineniye Germanii" (MS, courtesy of Ambassador Grinevskiy).
126. Julij A. Kwizinskij, Vor dem Sturm: Errinerungen eines Diplomaten, trans. Hilde Ettinger and Helmut Ettinger (Berlin: Siedler, 1993)
127. Valentin Falin, Politische Erinnerungen, trans. Heddy Pross-Werth (Munich: Droemer Knaur, 1993).
128. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified, chap. 5.
129. Doris G. Wolfgramm, The Kohl Government and German Reunification: Crisis and Foreign Policy (Lewiston, N. Y.: Edwin Mellen Press, 1997).
130. Randall E. Newnham, Deutsche Mark Diplomacy (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2001).
131. Chernyaev, My Six Years with Gorbachev, chap 7.
132. Alan B. Sherr, "Foreign Direct Investment in the Soviet Union: Status and Trends", Center for Foreign Policy Development, Briefing Paper no. 5 (Brown University, May 1991), 33.
133. Stent, Russia and Germany Reborn, 126.
134. Newnham, Deutsche Mark Diplomacy, is the best source here.
135. Andrew Kydd, "Trust, Reassurance, and Cooperation", International Organization 54, no. 2(spring 2000):325-57, esp. 350.
136. Shoon Murray, Anchors Against Change: American Opinion Leaders' Beliefs After the Cold War (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
137. Raymond L. Garthoff's magisterial The Great Transition: American-Soviet Relations and the End of the Cold War (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1994).
138. Robert M. Gates, In from, the Shadows: The Ultimate Insider's Story of Five Presidents and How They Won the Cold War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996);
139. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified;
140. Robert L. Hutchings, American Diplomacy and the End of the Cold War: An Insider's Account of U. S. Policy in Europe, 1989-92 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997);
141. Jack F. Matlock, Jr., Autopsy on an Empire: The American Ambassador's Account of the Collapse of the Soviet Union (New York: Random House, 1996).
142. NSD 23 (9/22/89), "United States Relations with the Soviet Union", from National Security Archive's Briefing Book for its oral history conference "The End of the Cold War in Europe, 1989: New Thinking and New Evidence", Musgrove, St. Simon's Island, Georgia, May 1-3, 1998.
143. Mikhail S. Gorbachev, Gody trudnykh resheniy: Izbrannoye 1985-1992 (Moscow: Tortuga, 1993), 172-97.
144. George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1998), 252.
145. Zelikow and Rice, Germany Unified;
146. Hutchings, American Diplomacy;
147. Horst Teltschik, 329 Tage: Innenansichten der Einigung (Berlin: Siedler, 1991).