Ideology and the Cold War

Review of International Studies

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 1999, Pages 539-576

  Kramer, Mark ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0033414838     PISSN: 02602105     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0260210599005392     Document Type: Article

References (143)

1. Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979).
2. For a cogent overview of the distinctions between neorealism and neoclassical realism, see Gideon Rose, 'Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy: Review Article', World Politics, 51:4 (October 1998), pp. 144-72.
3. Richard Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein, 'Beyond Realism: The Study of Grand Strategy', in Richard Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein, The Domestic Bases of Grand Strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993), p. 5.
4. John Mueller, 'The Impact of Ideas on Grand Strategy', in Rosecrance and Stein, The Domestic Bases of Grand Strategy, pp. 48-62.
5. Mueller, 'The Impact of Ideas on Grand Strategy', p. 49.
6. Ideology is defined here as a set of doctrinal principles, shaped by language, which cumulatively determine how an individual views, understands, and acts in the world. Widely shared precepts form the core of a state ideology, serving as a broad guide to state actions. For a somewhat different but compatible approach, see Walter Carlsnaes, Ideology and Foreign Policy: Problems of Comparative Conceptualization (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1986).
7. See various publications by Kathryn Weathersby, including, most recently, 'The Korean War Revisited', The Wilson Quarterly, 23:3 (Summer 1999), pp. 91-5.
8. 'Shifrtelegramma', from Stalin to T. F. Shtykov, Soviet ambassador in North Korea, 30 January 1950 (Strictly Secret), in Arkhiv Vneshnei Politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii (AVPRF), Fond (F.) 059a, Opis' (Op.) 5a, Delo (D.) 3, Papka (Pa.) 11, List (L.) 92.
9. 'Shifrtelegramma' from Soviet foreign minister Andrei Vyshinskii to T. F. Shtykov, 9 February 1950 (Strictly Secret), in Arkhiv Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii (APRF), F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, L. 76; 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to Soviet defence minister A. M. Vasilevskii, 23 February 1950 (Strictly Secret), in AVPRF, F. 059a, Op. 5a, D. 4, Pa. 11, L. 48; and 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to Andrei Vyshinskii, 16 March 1950 (Strictly Secret), in APRF, F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, Ll. 133-140.
10. 'Shifrtelegramma' from Soviet foreign minister Andrei Vyshinskii to T. F. Shtykov, 9 February 1950 (Strictly Secret), in Arkhiv Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii (APRF), F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, L. 76; 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to Soviet defence minister A. M. Vasilevskii, 23 February 1950 (Strictly Secret), in AVPRF, F. 059a, Op. 5a, D. 4, Pa. 11, L. 48; and 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to Andrei Vyshinskii, 16 March 1950 (Strictly Secret), in APRF, F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, Ll. 133-140.
11. 'Shifrtelegramma' from Soviet foreign minister Andrei Vyshinskii to T. F. Shtykov, 9 February 1950 (Strictly Secret), in Arkhiv Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii (APRF), F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, L. 76; 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to Soviet defence minister A. M. Vasilevskii, 23 February 1950 (Strictly Secret), in AVPRF, F. 059a, Op. 5a, D. 4, Pa. 11, L. 48; and 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to Andrei Vyshinskii, 16 March 1950 (Strictly Secret), in APRF, F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, Ll. 133-140.
12. Sergei Goncharov, John W. Lewis, Xue Litai, Uncertain Partners: Stalin, Mao, and the Korean War (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1993), pp. 143-5.
13. John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 290.
14. Ibid., pp. 290-1.
15. Odd Arne Westad, 'Secrets of the Second World: The Russian Archives and the Reinterpretation of Cold War History', Diplomatic History, 21:2 (Spring 1997), p. 267.
16. Vladislav Zubok, 'Russia', in Ernest R. May (ed.), American Cold War Strategy: Interpreting NCS 68 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993), p. 191.
17. 'Zapis' besedy tovarishcha Stalina I. V. s Predsedatelem Tsentral'nogo Narodnogo Pravitel'stva Kitaiskoi Narodnoi Respubliki Mao Tsze-dunom 16 dekabrya 1949 g'., No. 105 (Strictly Secret), in APRF, F. 45, Op. 1, D. 331, L. 72.
18. See, for example, the voluminous encrypted cables between Stalin and the Soviet ambassador in North Korea, T. F. Shtykov from late 1949 and the first several months of 1950 in AVPRF, F. 059a, Op. 5a, Pa. 11, Dd. 3 and 4.
19. For the text of Acheson's speech, see US Department of State, Department of State Bulletin, 22:3 (23 January 1950), pp. 111-16.
20. Goncharov, Lewis, and Xue, Uncertain Partners, pp. 101, 142.
21. Cited in Goncharov, Lewis, and Xue, Uncertain Partners, p. 145.
22. Cited in ibid., pp. 141-2.
23. Ibid., pp. 146-7.
24. 'Shifrtelegramma', from General Ivan Kovalev, Stalin's personal envoy in China, to Stalin, 18 May 1949 (Strictly Secret), in APRF, F. 45, Op. 1, D. 331, Ll. 59-61.
25. 'Shifrtelegramma', from N. V. Roshchin, Soviet ambassador in China, to Stalin, 13 May 1950 (Strictly Secret), in APRF, F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, L. 142.
26. 'Shifrtelegramma' from Andrei Vyshinskii to T. F. Shtykov, 14 May 1950 (Strictly Secret), in APRF, F. 45, Op. 1, D. 346, L. 143.
27. 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to General Matvei Zakharov, chief of the Soviet General Staff, 26 June 1950 (Top Secret), in AVPRF, F. 059a, Op. 5a, D. 3, Pa. 11, Ll. 97-102; and Goncharov, Lewis, and Xue, Uncertain Partners, pp. 149-54.
28. 'Shifrtelegramma', from T. F. Shtykov to General Matvei Zakharov, chief of the Soviet General Staff, 26 June 1950 (Top Secret), in AVPRF, F. 059a, Op. 5a, D. 3, Pa. 11, Ll. 97-102; and Goncharov, Lewis, and Xue, Uncertain Partners, pp. 149-54.
29. See my 'The Czechoslovak Crisis and the Brezhnev Doctrine', in Carole Fink, Detlef Junker, and Philipp Gassert (eds.), 1968: The World Transformed (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp. 163-8.
30. A. Sovetov, 'Sovremennyi etap bor'by mezhdu sotsializmom i imperializmom', Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn' (Moscow), no. 11 (November 1968), p. 7 (emphasis added).
31. See, for example, Jiri Valenta, Soviet Intervention in Czechoslovakia, 1968: Anatomy of a Decision, revised edn. (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991).
32. These materials are analysed in my 'The Czechoslovak Crisis and the Brezhnev Doctrine', pp. 111-71.
33. 'Rabochaya zapis' zasedaniya Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 6 maya 1968 goda', 6 May 1968 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 3, Op. 45, D. 99, L. 209.
34. 'Zapis' peregovorov s delegatsiei ChSSR 4 maya 1968 goda', 4 May 1968 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 3, Op. 91, D. 100, L. 144.
35. 'Nekotorye zamechaniya po voprosu podgotovki voenno-politicheskoi aktsii 21 avgusta 1968 g'., 16 November 1968 (Special Dossier/Strictly Secret), in Tsentr Khraneniya Sovremennoi Dokumentatsii (TsKhSD), F. 5 "OP," Op. 6, D. 776, Ll. 128-144.
36. Ibid., L. 134.
37. 'Rech' tovarishcha L. I. Brezhneva', Prarda (Moscow), 5 November 1968, p. 2.
38. On the 1956 events, see my 'The Soviet Union and the 1956 Crises in Hungary and Poland: Reassessments and New Findings', Journal of Contemporary History, 33:2 (April 1998), pp. 163-215; on the 1968 events, see my forthcoming Crisis in Czechoslovakia, 1968: The Prague Spring and the Soviet Invasion.
39. On the 1956 events, see my 'The Soviet Union and the 1956 Crises in Hungary and Poland: Reassessments and New Findings', Journal of Contemporary History, 33:2 (April 1998), pp. 163-215; on the 1968 events, see my forthcoming Crisis in Czechoslovakia, 1968: The Prague Spring and the Soviet Invasion.
40. See my Soviet Deliberations During the Polish Crisis, 1980-81, Special Working Paper no. 1 (Washington, DC: Cold War International History Project, May 1999); 'Poland, 1980-81: Soviet Policy During the Polish Crisis', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, Issue no. 5 (Spring 1995), pp. 1, 116-28; 'Jaruzelski, the Soviet Union, and the Polish Crisis: New Light on the Mystery of December 1981'; 'Colonel Kuklinski and the Polish Crisis, 1980-81'; and '"In Case Military Assistance is Provided to Poland": Soviet Preparations for Military Contingencies, August 1980', all in Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 11 (Winter 1999), pp. 5-31,47-60, and 86-94, respectively.
41. See my Soviet Deliberations During the Polish Crisis, 1980-81, Special Working Paper no. 1 (Washington, DC: Cold War International History Project, May 1999); 'Poland, 1980-81: Soviet Policy During the Polish Crisis', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, Issue no. 5 (Spring 1995), pp. 1, 116-28; 'Jaruzelski, the Soviet Union, and the Polish Crisis: New Light on the Mystery of December 1981'; 'Colonel Kuklinski and the Polish Crisis, 1980-81'; and '"In Case Military Assistance is Provided to Poland": Soviet Preparations for Military Contingencies, August 1980', all in Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 11 (Winter 1999), pp. 5-31,47-60, and 86-94, respectively.
42. See my Soviet Deliberations During the Polish Crisis, 1980-81, Special Working Paper no. 1 (Washington, DC: Cold War International History Project, May 1999); 'Poland, 1980-81: Soviet Policy During the Polish Crisis', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, Issue no. 5 (Spring 1995), pp. 1, 116-28; 'Jaruzelski, the Soviet Union, and the Polish Crisis: New Light on the Mystery of December 1981'; 'Colonel Kuklinski and the Polish Crisis, 1980-81'; and '"In Case Military Assistance is Provided to Poland": Soviet Preparations for Military Contingencies, August 1980', all in Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 11 (Winter 1999), pp. 5-31,47-60, and 86-94, respectively.
43. See my Soviet Deliberations During the Polish Crisis, 1980-81, Special Working Paper no. 1 (Washington, DC: Cold War International History Project, May 1999); 'Poland, 1980-81: Soviet Policy During the Polish Crisis', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, Issue no. 5 (Spring 1995), pp. 1, 116-28; 'Jaruzelski, the Soviet Union, and the Polish Crisis: New Light on the Mystery of December 1981'; 'Colonel Kuklinski and the Polish Crisis, 1980-81'; and '"In Case Military Assistance is Provided to Poland": Soviet Preparations for Military Contingencies, August 1980', all in Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 11 (Winter 1999), pp. 5-31,47-60, and 86-94, respectively.
44. See my Soviet Deliberations During the Polish Crisis, 1980-81, Special Working Paper no. 1 (Washington, DC: Cold War International History Project, May 1999); 'Poland, 1980-81: Soviet Policy During the Polish Crisis', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, Issue no. 5 (Spring 1995), pp. 1, 116-28; 'Jaruzelski, the Soviet Union, and the Polish Crisis: New Light on the Mystery of December 1981'; 'Colonel Kuklinski and the Polish Crisis, 1980-81'; and '"In Case Military Assistance is Provided to Poland": Soviet Preparations for Military Contingencies, August 1980', all in Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 11 (Winter 1999), pp. 5-31,47-60, and 86-94, respectively.
45. See my 'The Soviet Union and the 1956 Crises in Hungary and Poland', pp. 205-6.
46. See my 'The Czechoslovak Crisis and the Brezhnev Doctrine', pp. 152-3.
47. See, for example, Army-General S. M. Shtemenko, 'Bratstvo rozhdennoe v boyu', Za rubezhom (Moscow), no. 19 (May 1976), p. 7.
48. See Karl W. Deutsch et al., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1957).
49. 'Rech' tovarishcha L. I. Brezhneva', Pravda (Moscow), 13 November 1968, p. 2. The relevant portion of the Warsaw Pact's charter is Article 9; see 'Dogovor o druzhbe, sotrudnichestve i vzaimnoi pomoshchi', Pravda (Moscow), 15 May 1955, p. 2.
50. 'Rech' tovarishcha L. I. Brezhneva', Pravda (Moscow), 13 November 1968, p. 2. The relevant portion of the Warsaw Pact's charter is Article 9; see 'Dogovor o druzhbe, sotrudnichestve i vzaimnoi pomoshchi', Pravda (Moscow), 15 May 1955, p. 2.
51. See my 'Declassified Materials from CPSU Central Committee Plenums: Sources, Context, Highlights', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 10 (March 1998), pp. 14-16.
52. See, for example, the comments by Soviet foreign minister Andrei Gromyko in 'Rabochaya zapis' zasedaniya Politbyuro TsK KPSS 6 maya 1968 goda', 6 May 1968 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 3, Op. 45, D. 99, L. 211.
53. See my 'The Czechoslovak Crisis and the Brezhnev Doctrine', pp. 162-3.
54. Romania's defiance on this score was first revealed by Colonel Ryszard Kukliński in 'Wojna z narodem widziana od srodka', Kultura (Paris), 4/475 (April 1987), pp. 52-5, esp. 53.
55. Gaddis, We Now Know, p. 289.
56. Ibid.
57. Ibid.
58. Ibid., p. 288.
59. Richard Ned Lebow, 'The Soviet Response to Poland and the Future of the Warsaw Pact', in Arlene I. Broadhurst (ed.), The Future of European Alliance Systems: NATO and the Warsaw Pact (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1982), pp. 185-236, esp. 185-90.
60. See, for example, John J. Mearsheimer, 'Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War', International Security, 15:1 (Summer 1990), pp. 1-55.
61. Robert J. Pollard, Economic Security and the Origins of the Cold War. The Strategic Ends of US Foreign Economic Policy, 1945-1950 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1985), pp. 14-18, 247-8.
62. 'O Mezhdunarodnom valyutnom fonde i Mezhdunarodnom banke rekonstruktsii i razvitiya: Proekt', Memorandum to V. M. Molotov, 26 December 1945 (Secret), from V. Gerashchenko of the Soviet finance ministry and A. Arutunyan of the Soviet foreign trade ministry, in AVPRF, F. 06, Op. 16, Pa. 9, D. 11, Ll. 14-19.
63. Pollard, Economic Security and the Origins of the Cold War, pp. 33-58.
64. On this point, see John G. Ruggie, 'International Regimes, Transactions and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order', in Stephen D. Krasner, International Regimes (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983); and G. John Ikenberry, 'Creating Yesterday's New World Order: Keynesian "New Thinking" and the Anglo-American Postwar Settlement', in Judith Goldstein and Robert Keohane (eds.), Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993).
65. On this point, see John G. Ruggie, 'International Regimes, Transactions and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order', in Stephen D. Krasner, International Regimes (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983); and G. John Ikenberry, 'Creating Yesterday's New World Order: Keynesian "New Thinking" and the Anglo-American Postwar Settlement', in Judith Goldstein and Robert Keohane (eds.), Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993).
66. 'O nekotorykh nastroeniyakh v Pol'she po voprosu pol'sko-sovetskikh ekonomicheskikh otnoshenii', Memorandum from Lieutenant-General A. Okorokov, head of Political Directorate of the Northern Group of Forces, to M. A. Suslov, 19 March 1947 (Top Secret), in Rossiiskii Tsentr Khraneniya i Izucheniya Dokumentov Noveishei Istorii (RTsKhIDNI), F. 17, Op. 128, D. 284, Ll. 27-8, with cover note to M. A. Suslov.
67. See 'Informatsiya ob ispolnenii Sovetskim Soyuzom rekomendatsii Soveta Ekonomicheskoi Vzaimopomoshchi po voprosu o rasshirenii tovarooborota mezhdu stranami-uchastnikami Soveta: Prilozhenie k punktu 508 Protokolya Politbyuro no. 78', December 1950 (Top Secret), in RTsKhIDNI, F. 17, Op. 3, D. 1086, Ll. 252-60, esp. 254-5.
68. US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1987, CPAS-870002, September 1987, pp. 103-4.
69. Kazimierz Poznariski, 'Opportunity Costs in Soviet Trade with Eastern Europe', Soviet Studies, 40:2 (1988), pp. 290-307.
70. Newly declassified evidence confirms that Western economic sanctions caused hardship. See the comments by Yurii Andropov and Mikhail Suslov about the sanctions imposed after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 'Zasedanie Politbyuro 10 dekabrya 1981: K voprosu o polozhenii v Pol'she', 10 December 1981 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 66, D. 6, Ll. 6-7, 10-11.
71. Robert O. Freedman, Economic Warfare in the Communist Bloc: A Study of Soviet Economic Pressure Against Yugoslavia, Albania, and Communist China (New York: Praeger, 1970).
72. The Soviet Union's potential to use economic coercion did help induce the Polish Communist authorities to impose martial law. See my Soviet Deliberations During the Polish Crisis, 1980-81, pp. 12-15.
73. Walter W. Powell, 'Expanding the Scope of Institutional Analysis', in Walter W. Powell and Paul J. Dimaggio (eds.), The New Institutionalian in Organizational Analysis (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), pp. 190-1.
74. Arthur L. Stinchombe, Constructing Social Theories (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1968), p. 107.
75. Joseph M. Grieco, 'State Interests and Institutional Rule Trajectories: A Neorealist Interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty and European Economic and Monetary Union', in Benjamin Frankel (ed.), Realism: Restatements and Renewal (London: Frank Cass, 1996), p. 282.
76. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp. 54, 74, 124-8.
77. See, for example, 'Napravleniya i melody integratsii stran-chlenov SEV', 14 March 1968 (Secret), in Rossiiski Gosudarstvennyi Arkhiv Ekonomiki, F. 413, Kategoriya 1, Op. 12, D. 18401, Ll. 114-23.
78. Gaddis, We Now Know, p. 283.
79. See James D. Marchio, 'Resistance Potential and Rollback: US Intelligence and the Eisenhower Administration's Policies Toward Eastern Europe, 1953-56', Intelligence and National Security 10:2 (April 1995), pp. 219-45.
80. After martial law was introduced in Poland in December 1981, senior officials in many NATO countries were privately relieved that stability had been restored. See 'Stenographische Niederschrift des Gesprächs Schmidt-Honecker', 12 December 1981 (Top Secret), in Stiftung Archiv der Parteien und Massenorganisationen der DDR im Bundesarchiv (SAPMDB), Zentrales Parteiarchiv (ZPA) I IV 2/2/A-2447, Blatt (Bl.) 1-100; 'Entwurf zur Einschatzung des Treffens', 13 December 1981 (Top Secret), in SAPMDB/ZPA, IV B 2/2.035/086, Bl. 4-5; and 'Bericht über das Treffen von Honecker vor dem Politbüro', 15 December 1981 (Top Secret), in SAPMDB/ZPA, J IV 2/2/A-2447, Bl. 5-7.
81. William C. Wohlforth, 'Realism and the End of the Cold War', International Security 19:3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 91-129.
82. See William Wohlforth The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions During the Cold War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993).
83. Wohlforth, 'Realism and the End of the Cold War', pp. 109-11.
84. Jack S. Levy, 'Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War: Research Note', World Politics, 40:1 (October 1987), pp. 90-2.
85. Joseph Nye, Jr., Bound to Lead: the Changing Nature of American Power (New York: Basic Books, 1990), p. 2.
86. David P. Calleo, 'The End of the Hegemony of the Cheap', New Perspectives Quarterly, 5:2 (Spring 1988), p. 32.
87. Cited in Nye, Bound to Lead, p. 266.
88. On Moscow's efforts to counter 'neo-globalism', see 'Postanovlenie TsK KPSS: O merakh po usileniyu nashego protivodeistviya amerikanskoi politike 'neoglobalizma',' no. 49 (Top Secret), 1 August 1986,in APRF, F. 3, Op. 102, D. 230, Ll. 170-6.
89. Wohlforth, 'Realism and the End of the Cold War', p. 99.
90. See 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 29 oktyabrya 1980 goda: Materialy k druzhestvennomu rabochemu vizitu v SSSR pol'skikh rukovoditelei', 29 October 1981 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, d. 31, Ll. 1-7; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 29 oktyabrya 1981 goda: Ob itogakh poezdki t. Rusakova K. V. v GDR, ChSSR, VNR i NRB', 29 October 1981 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 48, Ll. 1-6; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 dekabrya 1981 goda', Ll. 1-11.
91. See 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 29 oktyabrya 1980 goda: Materialy k druzhestvennomu rabochemu vizitu v SSSR pol'skikh rukovoditelei', 29 October 1981 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, d. 31, Ll. 1-7; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 29 oktyabrya 1981 goda: Ob itogakh poezdki t. Rusakova K. V. v GDR, ChSSR, VNR i NRB', 29 October 1981 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 48, Ll. 1-6; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 dekabrya 1981 goda', Ll. 1-11.
92. See 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 29 oktyabrya 1980 goda: Materialy k druzhestvennomu rabochemu vizitu v SSSR pol'skikh rukovoditelei', 29 October 1981 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, d. 31, Ll. 1-7; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 29 oktyabrya 1981 goda: Ob itogakh poezdki t. Rusakova K. V. v GDR, ChSSR, VNR i NRB', 29 October 1981 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 48, Ll. 1-6; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 dekabrya 1981 goda', Ll. 1-11.
93. See, for example, 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 31 maya 1983 goda', 31 May 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1-14; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 18 noyabrya 1982 goda', 18 November 1982 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 82, Op. 1, D. 68, esp. Ll. 453-8; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 marta 1983 goda', 10 March 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 51, esp. L. 13; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 7 iyulya 1983 goda', 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 64, Ll. 12-23; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 19 yanvarya 1984 goda', 19 January 1984 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 56, Ll. 1-13; and 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 23 fevralya 1983 goda', 23 February 1983 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 84, Op. 1, D. 132, Ll. 129-38.
94. See, for example, 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 31 maya 1983 goda', 31 May 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1-14; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 18 noyabrya 1982 goda', 18 November 1982 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 82, Op. 1, D. 68, esp. Ll. 453-8; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 marta 1983 goda', 10 March 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 51, esp. L. 13; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 7 iyulya 1983 goda', 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 64, Ll. 12-23; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 19 yanvarya 1984 goda', 19 January 1984 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 56, Ll. 1-13; and 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 23 fevralya 1983 goda', 23 February 1983 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 84, Op. 1, D. 132, Ll. 129-38.
95. See, for example, 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 31 maya 1983 goda', 31 May 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1-14; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 18 noyabrya 1982 goda', 18 November 1982 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 82, Op. 1, D. 68, esp. Ll. 453-8; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 marta 1983 goda', 10 March 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 51, esp. L. 13; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 7 iyulya 1983 goda', 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 64, Ll. 12-23; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 19 yanvarya 1984 goda', 19 January 1984 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 56, Ll. 1-13; and 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 23 fevralya 1983 goda', 23 February 1983 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 84, Op. 1, D. 132, Ll. 129-38.
96. See, for example, 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 31 maya 1983 goda', 31 May 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1-14; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 18 noyabrya 1982 goda', 18 November 1982 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 82, Op. 1, D. 68, esp. Ll. 453-8; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 marta 1983 goda', 10 March 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 51, esp. L. 13; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 7 iyulya 1983 goda', 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 64, Ll. 12-23; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 19 yanvarya 1984 goda', 19 January 1984 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 56, Ll. 1-13; and 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 23 fevralya 1983 goda', 23 February 1983 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 84, Op. 1, D. 132, Ll. 129-38.
97. See, for example, 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 31 maya 1983 goda', 31 May 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1-14; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 18 noyabrya 1982 goda', 18 November 1982 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 82, Op. 1, D. 68, esp. Ll. 453-8; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 marta 1983 goda', 10 March 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 51, esp. L. 13; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 7 iyulya 1983 goda', 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 64, Ll. 12-23; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 19 yanvarya 1984 goda', 19 January 1984 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 56, Ll. 1-13; and 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 23 fevralya 1983 goda', 23 February 1983 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 84, Op. 1, D. 132, Ll. 129-38.
98. See, for example, 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 31 maya 1983 goda', 31 May 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1-14; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 18 noyabrya 1982 goda', 18 November 1982 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 82, Op. 1, D. 68, esp. Ll. 453-8; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 marta 1983 goda', 10 March 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 51, esp. L. 13; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 7 iyulya 1983 goda', 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), 7 July 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 64, Ll. 12-23; 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 19 yanvarya 1984 goda', 19 January 1984 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 56, Ll. 1-13; and 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 23 fevralya 1983 goda', 23 February 1983 (Top Secret), in APRF, F. 84, Op. 1, D. 132, Ll. 129-38.
99. Interview with Yakovlev in 'Priglashenie k sporu', Lileraturnaya gazeta (Moscow), no. 19 (15 May 1991), p. 3.
100. On Afghanistan, see the handwritten CPSU Politburo resolution 'K polozheniyu v 'A',' 12 December 1979 (Top Secret/Special Dossier), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 14, Dok. 31, L. 1.
101. 'Zasedanie Politbyuro TsK KPSS 10 marta 1983 goda: 6. O polozhenii v Afganistane i dopolnitel'nykh merakh po ego uluchsheniyu', 10 March 1983 (Top Secret), in TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 51, L. 12.
102. Ibid., L. 13.
103. This point was emphasized by Georgii Shakhnazarov in a memorandum he prepared in October 1988 for the CPSU Politburo, 'K zasedaniyu Politbyuro 6/X-88 g.', 6 October 1988 (Secret), reproduced in Tsena svobody: Reformatsiya Gorbachera glazami ego pomoshcknika (Moscow: Rossika-Zevs, 1993), pp. 367-9.
104. This point was emphasized by Georgii Shakhnazarov in a memorandum he prepared in October 1988 for the CPSU Politburo, 'K zasedaniyu Politbyuro 6/X-88 g.', 6 October 1988 (Secret), reproduced in Tsena svobody: Reformatsiya Gorbachera glazami ego pomoshcknika (Moscow: Rossika-Zevs, 1993), pp. 367-9.
105. Ibid., p. 367.
106. Interview with Vitalii Zhurkin, adviser to Gorbachev on European affairs, in 'Evropa v menyayushchikhsya koordinatakh', Izrestiya (Moscow), 26 May 1990, p. 5.
107. Ibid.
108. E. Shevardnadze, 'O vneshnei politike', Pravda (Moscow), 26 June 1990, p. 3.
109. 'K zasedaniyu Politbyuro 6/X-88 g'., p. 368.
110. Ibid., pp. 367-8.
111. 'XXVIII S"ezd Kommunisticheskoi Partii Sovetskogo Soyuza', Pravda (Moscow), 9 July 1990, p. 5.
112. 'Otvety M. S. Gorbacheva na voprosy gazety 'Vashington post' i zhurnala 'N'yusuik", Pravda (Moscow), 23 May 1988, p. 2.
113. This seems to be what Shakhnazarov had in mind in his October 1988 memorandum; see 'K zasedaniyu Politbyuro 6/X-88 g'., pp. 367-9.
114. See, for example, 'Niederschrift des Arbeitstreffens des Genossen Erich Honecker, Generalsekretär des ZK der SED und Vorsitzender des Staatsrates der DDR, mit Genossen Michail Gorbatschow, Generalsekretär des ZK der KPdSU und Vorsitzender des Obersten Sowjets der UdSSR, am 28.6.1989 in Moskau', 28 June 1989 (Top Secret), in SAPMDB/ZPA, J IV 2/2A/3228; 'Niederschrift über das Gespräch des Generalsekretärs des Zentralkomitees der SED und Vorsitzenden des Staatsrates der DDR, Erich Honecker, mit dem Generalsekretär des ZK der KPdSU, Michail Gorbatschow, am 7. Oktober 1989', 7 October 1989 (Top Secret), in SAPMDB, ZPA, J IV 2/2.035/60.
115. See, for example, 'Niederschrift des Arbeitstreffens des Genossen Erich Honecker, Generalsekretär des ZK der SED und Vorsitzender des Staatsrates der DDR, mit Genossen Michail Gorbatschow, Generalsekretär des ZK der KPdSU und Vorsitzender des Obersten Sowjets der UdSSR, am 28.6.1989 in Moskau', 28 June 1989 (Top Secret), in SAPMDB/ZPA, J IV 2/2A/3228; 'Niederschrift über das Gespräch des Generalsekretärs des Zentralkomitees der SED und Vorsitzenden des Staatsrates der DDR, Erich Honecker, mit dem Generalsekretär des ZK der KPdSU, Michail Gorbatschow, am 7. Oktober 1989', 7 October 1989 (Top Secret), in SAPMDB, ZPA, J IV 2/2.035/60.
116. TASS, 15 November 1989.
117. Interviews with Georgii Shakhnazarov and Anatolii Chernyaev, in Providence, Rhode Island, 7 May 1998.
118. 'Herzliche Gratulation der DDR an das chinesische Brudervolk: Grusstelegramm nach Peking an Repräsentanten der Volksrepublik', Neues Deutschland (East Berlin), 30 September-1 October 1989, p. 1.
119. See 'Krenz und Mielke vereinbarten auf Geheimkonferenz chinesische Lösung', Die Welt (Hamburg), 21 May 1990, p. 6.
120. See '"Chinesische Lösung": Wollten Stasi-Leute ein Blutbad unter Demonstranten provozieren?' Der Spiegel, No. 51, 18 December 1989, pp. 42-4; Ewald König, 'Der Honecker-Befehl zum Blutbad war am 9. Oktober schön unter schrieben', Die Presse (Vienna), 24 November 1989, p. 4; Cordt Schnibben, 'Ich bin das Volk': Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politburo die Konterrevolution erlebten' (1), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 16, 16 April 1990, pp. 72-90; and '"Makkaroni mit Schinken, bitte": Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politbüro die Konterrevolution erlebten' (II), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 17, 23 April 1990, pp. 78-98.
121. See '"Chinesische Lösung": Wollten Stasi-Leute ein Blutbad unter Demonstranten provozieren?' Der Spiegel, No. 51, 18 December 1989, pp. 42-4; Ewald König, 'Der Honecker-Befehl zum Blutbad war am 9. Oktober schön unter schrieben', Die Presse (Vienna), 24 November 1989, p. 4; Cordt Schnibben, 'Ich bin das Volk': Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politburo die Konterrevolution erlebten' (1), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 16, 16 April 1990, pp. 72-90; and '"Makkaroni mit Schinken, bitte": Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politbüro die Konterrevolution erlebten' (II), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 17, 23 April 1990, pp. 78-98.
122. See '"Chinesische Lösung": Wollten Stasi-Leute ein Blutbad unter Demonstranten provozieren?' Der Spiegel, No. 51, 18 December 1989, pp. 42-4; Ewald König, 'Der Honecker-Befehl zum Blutbad war am 9. Oktober schön unter schrieben', Die Presse (Vienna), 24 November 1989, p. 4; Cordt Schnibben, 'Ich bin das Volk': Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politburo die Konterrevolution erlebten' (1), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 16, 16 April 1990, pp. 72-90; and '"Makkaroni mit Schinken, bitte": Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politbüro die Konterrevolution erlebten' (II), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 17, 23 April 1990, pp. 78-98.
123. See '"Chinesische Lösung": Wollten Stasi-Leute ein Blutbad unter Demonstranten provozieren?' Der Spiegel, No. 51, 18 December 1989, pp. 42-4; Ewald König, 'Der Honecker-Befehl zum Blutbad war am 9. Oktober schön unter schrieben', Die Presse (Vienna), 24 November 1989, p. 4; Cordt Schnibben, 'Ich bin das Volk': Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politburo die Konterrevolution erlebten' (1), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 16, 16 April 1990, pp. 72-90; and '"Makkaroni mit Schinken, bitte": Wie Erich Honecker und sein Politbüro die Konterrevolution erlebten' (II), Der Spiegel (Hamburg), no. 17, 23 April 1990, pp. 78-98.
124. 'VVS-Nr. 0008 Mfs-Nr. 69/89', 5 October 1989 (Top Secret), from Army General E. Mielke, in Bundesbeauftragte für die Unterlagen des Ministeriums für Staatssicherheit der ehemaligen DDR (BStU), Zentralarchiv (ZA), MfS-ZAIG 3806.
125. 'VVS-Nr. 0008', 8 October 1989 (Top Secret), from Army General E. Mielke, in BStU, ZA, Mfs-Dok. 103625.
126. 'Massnahmen zum Übergang zu einer höheren Stufe der Gefechtsbereitschaft', Befehl Nr. 105/89 (Strictly Secret), 7 October 1989, from Army General Heinz Hoffmann, in Bundesarchiv/Abteilungen Potsdam, Militärisches Zwischenarchiv, Strausberg Archiv-Zugangsnummer 32665, Bl. 183.
127. Text in Neues Forum Leipzig, Jetzt oder nie-Demokratie: Leipziger Herbst '89 (Leipzig: Forum, 1989), pp. 69, 92-93.
128. See the testimony of Vyacheslav Kochemasov, Soviet ambassador in the GDR in 1989, in Stanislav Kondrashov, 'Nashe mesto v mire, ili Dumaya o dome za granitsei', Izrestiya (Moscow), 29 April 1990, p. 7. See also Kochemasov's memoir, Meine letzte Mission, pp. 168-9.
129. See the testimony of Vyacheslav Kochemasov, Soviet ambassador in the GDR in 1989, in Stanislav Kondrashov, 'Nashe mesto v mire, ili Dumaya o dome za granitsei', Izrestiya (Moscow), 29 April 1990, p. 7. See also Kochemasov's memoir, Meine letzte Mission, pp. 168-9.
130. See Günter Schabowski, Der Absturz (Berlin: Rohwolt, 1991), p. 261. See also Kochemasov, Meine letzte Mission, pp. 175-6.
131. See Günter Schabowski, Der Absturz (Berlin: Rohwolt, 1991), p. 261. See also Kochemasov, Meine letzte Mission, pp. 175-6.
132. Kochemasov, Meine letzte Mission, pp. 175-6.
133. See Mark Kramer, ed., The Collapse of the Soviet Union (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2000).
134. Interview with Adam B. Ulam, Radio Free Europe, May 1975, stored in RFE/RL archive in Budapest.
135. See 'Vypiska iz protokola No. 175 zasedaniya Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 2 yanvarya 1990 goda: O sobytiyakh v Vostochnoi Evrope i pozitsii SSSR', no. P175/V (Top Secret), 2 January 1990, in TsKhSD, F. 89, Per. 13, Dok. 39; and 'Vypiska iz protokola no. 184 zasedaniya Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 5 aprelya 1990 goda: O linii KPSS i merakh v podderzhku kommunisticheskikh i rabochikh partii v vostochnoevropeiskikh stranakh', no. P184/38 (Top Secret), 5 April 1990, in TsKhSD, F. 89, Per. 9, Dok. 109. This was especially true of events in the GDR; see 'Vypiska iz protokola no. 165 zasedaniya Politbyuro TsK KPSS ot 11 sentyabrya 1989 goda: O zayavlenii TASS v podderzhku Germanskoi Demokraticheskoi Respubliki', no. P165/6 (Top Secret), 11 September 1989, in TsKhSD F. 89, Per. 9, Dok. 30.
136. 'Rasporyazhenie Soveta Ministrov SSSR ot 19 marta 1953 g.', No. 858-372ss (Top Secret), 19 March 1953, in APRF, F. 3, Op. 65, D. 830, Ll. 60-71.
137. See my 'The Early Post-Stalin Succession Struggle and Upheavals in East-Central Europe: Internal-External Linkages in Soviet Policy' (Part 1), Journal of Cold War Studies, 1:1 (Winter 1999), pp. 3-55 and 1:2 (Spring-Summer 1999), 3-86.
138. See my 'The Early Post-Stalin Succession Struggle and Upheavals in East-Central Europe: Internal-External Linkages in Soviet Policy' (Part 1), Journal of Cold War Studies, 1:1 (Winter 1999), pp. 3-55 and 1:2 (Spring-Summer 1999), 3-86.
139. See, for example, Vojtech Mastny, The Cold War and Soviet Insecurity: The Stalin Years (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), p. 9, which claims that 'some of the most secret documents could have been published in Pravda without anybody's noticing'. Mastny asserts that 'there was no double bookkeeping', but the case of the Brezhnev Doctrine (discussed above) shows otherwise.
140. See, however, Vladimir Pechatnov, 'Soyuzniki nazhimayut na tebya dlya logo, chtoby slomit' u tebya volyu ...': Perepiska Stalina s Molotovym i drugimi chlenami Politbyuro po vneshnepoliticheskim voprosam v sentyabre-dekabre 1945 g'., Istochnik (Moscow), no. 2 (1999), pp. 70-85; and 'Na etom voprose my slomaem ikh anti-sovetskoe uporstvo ...': Iz perepiski Stalina s Molotovym po vneshnepoliticheskim delam v 1946 godu', Istochnik (Moscow), no. 3 (1999), pp. 92-104.
141. See, however, Vladimir Pechatnov, 'Soyuzniki nazhimayut na tebya dlya logo, chtoby slomit' u tebya volyu ...': Perepiska Stalina s Molotovym i drugimi chlenami Politbyuro po vneshnepoliticheskim voprosam v sentyabre-dekabre 1945 g'., Istochnik (Moscow), no. 2 (1999), pp. 70-85; and 'Na etom voprose my slomaem ikh anti-sovetskoe uporstvo ...': Iz perepiski Stalina s Molotovym po vneshnepoliticheskim delam v 1946 godu', Istochnik (Moscow), no. 3 (1999), pp. 92-104.
142. See Norman M. Naimark, The Russians In Germany. A History of the Soviet Zone of Occupation, 1945-1949 (Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University, 1995).
143. On the unexpected end of the Cold War and why Western experts in particular failed to predict it, see Michael Cox (ed.), Rethinking the Soviet Collapse: Sovietology, the Death of Communism, and the New Russia (London: Pinter/Cassell, 1998).