Putting a CART before the search: Successful habitat prediction for a rare forest herb

Ecology

Volumn 86, Issue 10, 2005, Pages 2793-2804

  Bourg, Norman A ^a,b   Mcshea, William J ^b   Gill, Douglas E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b SMITHSONIAN CONSERVATION BIOLOGY INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

Appalachians; CART; Classification tree; Conservation; Fire; GIS; Habitat models; Melanthiaceae; Metapopulations; Rare plants; Species distributions; Xerophyllum asphodeloides

Indexed keywords

CONSERVATION; ENDANGERED SPECIES; GIS; HABITAT TYPE; METAPOPULATION; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION;

MELANTHIACEAE; QUERCUS; XEROPHYLLUM ASPHODELOIDES;

EID: 26044476586     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/04-1666     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Abrams, M. D. 1992. Fire and the development of oak forests. BioScience 42:346-353.
2. Abrams, M. D. 2000. Fire and the ecological history of oak forests in the eastern United States. Pages 46-55 in D. A. Yaussy, compiler. Proceedings: Workshop on Fire, People, and the Central Hardwoods Landscape (Richmond, Kentucky, 2000). USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, General Technical Report NE-274, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, USA.
3. Abrams, M. D. 2003. Where has all the white oak gone? BioScience 53:927-939.
4. Baker, F. A. 1993. Classification and regression tree analysis for assessing hazard of pine mortality caused by Heterobasidion annosum. Plant Disease 77:136-139.
5. Barden, L. S., and F. W. Woods. 1973. Characteristics of lightning fires in southern Appalachian forests. Pages 345-361 in Proceedings, 13th Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference. Tall Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, Florida, USA.
6. Barden, L. S., and F. W. Woods. 1976. Effects of fire on pine and pine-hardwood forests in the southern Appalachians. Forest Science 22:399-403.
7. Beers, T. W., P. E. Dress, and L. C. Wensel. 1966. Aspect transformation in site productivity research. Journal of Forestry 64:691-692.
8. Boeringa, M. 2003. Kriging interpolator 3.2 for ArcView spatial analyst. Nieuwland Automatisering, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 〈http://www. nieuwland.nl〉
9. Bond, W. J., and B. W. van Wilgen. 1996. Fire and plants. Population and community biology series 14. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
10. Borchert, M., F. W. Davis, J. Michaelsen, and L. D. Oyler. 1989. Interactions of factors affecting seedling recruitment of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) in California. Ecology 70:389-404.
11. Breiman, L., J. H. Friedman, R. A. Olshen, and C. G. Stone. 1984. Classification and regression trees. The Wadsworth statistics/probability series. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York.
12. Burnett, M. R., P. V. August, J. H. Brown, and K. T. Killingbeck. 1998. The influence of geomorphological heterogeneity on biodiversity: I. a patch-scale perspective. Conservation Biology 12:363-370.
13. CPC. 2004. Species list of the National Collection of Endangered Plants. Center for Plant Conservation, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.
14. Cruzan, M. B. 2001. Population size and fragmentation thresholds for the maintenance of genetic diversity in the herbaceous endemic Scutellaria montana (Lamiaceae). Evolution 55:1569-1580.
15. Curtis, N. P. 1998. A post-fire ecological study of Xanthorrhoea australis following prescribed burning in the Warby Range State Park, north-eastern Victoria, Australia. Australian Journal of Botany 46:253-272.
16. De'ath, G., and K. E. Fabricius. 2000. Classification and regression trees: a powerful yet simple technique for ecological data analysis. Ecology 81:3178-3192.
17. Delcourt, H. R., and P. A. Delcourt. 1997. Pre-Columbian Native American use of fire on southern Appalachian landscapes. Conservation Biology 11:1010-1014.
18. ERDAS. 1997. ERDAS field guide. Fourth edition, revised and expanded. ERDAS, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
19. ESRI. 2002. ArcView and ArcInfo GIS. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California, USA.
20. Farnsworth, E. J. 2003. CPC national collection plant profile, national collection of endangered plants, Xerophyllum asphodeloides. Center for Plant Conservation, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, Missouri, USA. 〈http://www.centerforplantconservation.org/NC_Choice.html〉
21. Franklin, J. F., and C. T. Dyrness. 1973. Natural vegetation of Oregon and Washington. General Technical Report PNW-8. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Portland, Oregon, USA.
22. Freckleton, R. P., and A. R. Watkinson. 2002. Large-scale spatial dynamics of plants: metapopulations, regional ensembles and patchy populations. Journal of Ecology 90:419-434.
23. Giles, B. E., and J. Goudet. 1997. A case study of genetic structure in a plant metapopulation. Pages 429-454 in I. A. Hanski and M. E. Gilpin, editors. Metapopulation biology: ecology, genetics, and evolution. Academic Press, New York, New York, USA.
24. Godt, M. J. W., J. L. Hamrick, and S. Bratton. 1995. Genetic diversity in a threatened wetland species, Helonias bullata (Liliaceae). Conservation Biology 9:596-604.
25. Godt, M. J. W., B. R. Johnson, and J. L. Hamrick. 1996. Genetic diversity and population size in four rare southern Appalachian plant species. Conservation Biology 10:796-805.
26. Hanski, I. 1997. Metapopulation dynamics: from concepts and observations to predictive models. Pages 69-91 in I. A. Hanski and M. E. Gilpin, editors. Metapopulation biology: ecology, genetics, and evolution. Academic Press, New York, New York, USA.
27. Hanski, I. 1999. Metapopulation ecology. Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA.
28. Hanski, I., and D. Simberloff. 1997. The metapopulation approach, its history, conceptual domain, and application to conservation. Pages 5-26 in I. A. Hanski and M. E. Gilpin, editors. Metapopulation biology: ecology, genetics, and evolution. Academic Press, New York, New York, USA.
29. Harmon, M. E. 1982. Fire history of the westernmost portion of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Bulletin of the Torrey Botanical Club 109:74-79.
30. Harrison, S., and A. D. Taylor. 1997. Empirical evidence for metapopulation dynamics. Pages 27-42 in I. A. Hanski and M. E. Gilpin, editors. Metapopulation biology: ecology, genetics, and evolution. Academic Press, New York, New York, USA.
31. Harrod, J., P. S. White, and M. E. Harmon. 1998. Changes in xeric forests in western Great Smoky Mountains National Park, 1936-1995. Castanea 63:346-360.
32. Harvill, A. M., Jr., C. E. Stevens, and D. M. E. Ware. 1977. Atlas of the Virginia Flora: Part 1, Pteridophytes through Monocotyledons. Virginia Botanical Associates, Farmville, Virginia, USA.
33. Hitchcock, C. L., and A. Cronquist. 1973. Flora of the Pacific Northwest. University of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington, USA.
34. Hunter, J. E. 1988. Prescribed burning for cultural resources. Fire Management Notes 49(2):8-9.
35. Husband, B. C., and S. C. H. Barrett. 1996. A metapopulation perspective in plant population biology. Journal of Ecology 84:461-469.
36. Insightful Corporation. 2001. S-Plus 6 for Windows user's guide and software program. Insightful Corporation, Seattle, Washington, USA.
37. Isaaks, E. H., and R. M. Srivastava. 1989. An introduction to applied geostatistics. Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA.
38. Iverson, L. R., and A. M. Prasad. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68:465-485.
39. Kintsch, J. A., and D. L. Urban. 2002. Focal species, community representation, and physical proxies as conservation strategies: a case study in the Amphibolite Mountains, North Carolina, U.S.A. Conservation Biology 16:936-947.
40. Komarek, E. V. 1974. Effects of fire on temperate forests and related ecosystems:southeastern United States. Pages 251-277 in T. T. Kozlowski and C. E. Ahlgren, editors. Fire and ecosystems. Academic Press, New York, New York, USA.
41. Lees, B. G., and K. Ritman. 1991. Decision-tree and rule-induction approach to integration of remotely sensed and GIS data in mapping vegetation in disturbed or hilly environments. Journal of Environmental Management 15:823-831.
42. Lesica, P. 1992. Autecology of the endangered plant Howellia aquatilis; implications for management and reserve design. Ecological Applications 2:411-421.
43. Lynn, H., C. L. Mohler, S. D. DeGloria, and C. E. McCulloch. 1995. Error assessment in decision-tree models applied to vegetation analysis. Landscape Ecology 10:323-335.
44. Maclean, A. L., and D. T. Cleland. 2003. Determining the spatial extent of historical fires with geostatistics in northern lower Michigan. Pages 289-299 in N. Omi and L. A. Joyce, technical editors. Fire, fuel treatments, and ecological restoration. Conference Proceedings (Fort Collins, Colorado, 2002). USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Proceedings RMRS-P-29.
45. Maule, S. M. 1959. Xerophyllum tenax, squawgrass, its geographic distribution and its behaviour on Mount Rainier, Washington. Madroño 15:39-48.
46. Mayo Foundation. 2002. RPART3 for S-PLUS 6 for Windows, as released March 2002. Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota, USA.
47. McKenzie, D., D. L. Peterson, and J. K. Agee. 2000. Fire frequency in the interior Columbia River basin: building regional models from fire history data. Ecological Applications 10:1497-1516.
48. Menges, E. S., and P. F. Quintana-Ascencio. 2004. Population viability with fire in Eryngium cuneifolium: deciphering a decade of demographic data. Ecological Monographs 74:79-99.
49. Michaelsen, J., D. S. Schimel, M. A. Friedl, F. W. Davis, and R. C. Dubayah. 1994. Regression tree analysis of satellite and terrain data to guide vegetation sampling and surveys. Journal of Vegetation Science 5:673-686.
50. Moore, D. E., B. G. Lees, and S. M. Davey. 1991. A new method for predicting vegetation distributions using decision tree analysis in a geographic information system. Journal of Environmental Management 15:59-71.
51. Murphy, H. T., and J. Lovett-Doust. 2004. Context and connectivity in plant metapopulations and landscape mosaics: does the matrix matter? Oikos 105:3-14.
52. Natureserve. 2005. NatureServe Explorer: an online encyclopedia of life [web application]. Version 4.2. NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia. USA. 〈http://www.natureserve.org/explorer〉
53. Nichols, W. F., K. T. Killingbeck, and P. V. August. 1998. The influence of geomorphological heterogeneity on biodiversity: II. A landscape perspective. Conservation Biology 12:371-379.
54. NRCS (Natural Resources Conservation Service). 2003. Soil survey geographic (SSURGO) database fact sheet. U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Cartography and Geospatial Center, Fort Worth, Texas, USA. 〈http://soils.usda.gov/survey/geography/〉
55. Quintana-Ascencio, P. F., E. S. Menges, and C. W. Weekley. 2003. A fire-explicit population viability analysis of Hypericum cumulicola in Florida rosemary scrub. Conservation Biology 17:433-449.
56. SAMAB. 1996. Southern Appalachian Assessment (SAA) GIS database. In K. A. Herman, editor. Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere Program. Norris, Tennessee, USA.
57. Shands, W. E. 1992. The lands nobody wanted: the legacy of the eastern national forests. Pages 19-44 in H. K. Steen, editor. Origins of the national forests: a centennial symposium. Forest History Society, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
58. Shumway, D. L., M. D. Abrams, and C. M. Ruffner. 2001. A 400-year history of fire and oak recruitment in an old-growth oak forest in western Maryland, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31:1437-1443.
59. Stein, M. L. 1999. Interpolation of spatial data: some theory for kriging. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York, New York, USA.
60. Sutherland, E. K., H. Grissino-Mayer, C. A. Woodhouse, W. W. Covington, S. Horn, L. Huckaby, R. Kerr, J. Kush, M. Moore, and T. Plumb. 1993. Two centuries of fire in a southwestern Virginia Pinus pungens community. Proceedings of the IUFRO Conference on Inventory and Management in the Context of Catastrophic Events: Altered States of the Forest (Pennsylvania State University, Center for Statistical Ecology and Environmental Statistics, University Park, Pennsylvania, 1993). USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station, RWU NE-4153, Delaware, Ohio, USA.
61. Therneau, T. M., and E. J. Atkinson. 1997. An introduction to recursive partitioning using the RPART routine. Technical Report 61, Mayo Clinic, Section of Biostatistics, Rochester, Minnesota, USA.
62. Thomas, C. D. 1994. Extinction, colonization and metapopulations: environmental tracking by rare species. Conservation Biology 8:373-378.
63. Thrall, P. H., J. J. Burdon, and B. R. Murray. 2000. The metapopulation paradigm: a fragmented view of conservation biology. Pages 75-95 in A. G. Young and G. M. Clarke, editors. Genetics, demography and viability of fragmented populations. Cambridge University Press, New York, New York, USA.
64. Thurmond, D., and S. Oberholster. 1996. Longleaf restoration in Northeast Alabama: Shoal Creek Ranger District, Talladega National Forest. Pages 154-155 in J. S. Kush, compiler. Proceedings First Longleaf Alliance Conference. Longleaf Pine: a Regional Perspective of Challenges, and Opportunities (Mobile, Alabama, 1996). Longleaf Alliance Report Number 1. The Longleaf Alliance, Andalusia, Alabama, USA.
65. USDA. 1993. Final revised land and resource management plan, George Washington National Forest. USDA Forest Service Southern Region. Supervisor's Office, George Washington National Forest, Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA.
66. USFS. 1996. Continuous inventory of stand condition (CISC) forest types database. USDA Forest Service Southern Region. George Washington and Jefferson National Forests, Bridgewater, Virginia, USA.
67. USFS. 1997. Fire history of the George Washington National Forest: 1915-1995. Internal report, George Washington National Forest, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Roanoke, Virginia, USA.
68. USGS. 1993. Digital elevation models - data users guide 5. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, USA. 〈http://edc.usgs.gov/ geodata〉
69. Vance, N. C., P. Bernhardt, and R. M. Edens. 2004. Pollination and seed production in Xerophyllum tenax (Melanthiaceae) in the Cascade Range of central Oregon. American Journal of Botany 91:2060-2068.
70. Van Lear, D. H., and T. A. Waldrop. 1989. History, uses, and effects of fire in the Appalachians. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report SE-54, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.
71. Vayssieres, M. P., R. E. Plant, and B. H. Allen-Diaz. 2000. Classification trees: an alternative non-parametric approach for predicting species distributions. Journal of Vegetation Science 11:679-694.
72. Verbyla, D. L. 1987. Classification trees: a new discrimination tool. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 17:1150-1152.
73. Whittaker, R. H. 1956. Vegetation of the Great Smoky Mountains. Ecological Monographs 26:1-80.
74. Williams, C. E., and W. C. Johnson. 1990. Age structure and the maintenance of Pinus pungens in pine-oak forests of southwestern Virginia. American Midland Naturalist 124:130-141.
75. WVNHP (West Virginia Natural Heritage Program). 1994. Xerophyllum asphodeloides element stewardship abstract. West Virginia Natural Heritage Program, Elkins, West Virginia, USA.
76. WVNHP (West Virginia Natural Heritage Program). 1995a. Xerophyllum asphodeloides element state ranking form as of 25 January 1995. West Virginia Natural Heritage Program, Elkins, West Virginia, USA.
77. WVNHP (West Virginia Natural Heritage Program). 1995b. Xerophyllum asphodeloides plant characterization abstract (Global). West Virginia Natural Heritage Program, Elkins, West Virginia, USA.
78. Zobel, D. B. 1969. Factors affecting the distribution of Pinus pungens, an Appalachian endemic. Ecological Monographs 39:303-333.
79. Zomlefer, W. B., N. H. Williams, W. M. Whitten, and W. S. Judd. 2001. Generic circumscription and relationships in the tribe Melanthieae (Liliales, Melanthiaceae), with emphasis on Zigadenus: evidence from ITS and TRNL-F sequence data. American Journal of Botany 88:1657-1669.