Seasonal forecasting of river flows: A review of the state-of-the-art

IAHS-AISH Publication

Volumn , Issue 308, 2006, Pages 158-162

  Easey, Jennifer ^a   Prudhomme, Christel ^a   Hannah, David M ^b  

^a CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Downscaling; Dynamical models; GCMs; River flow; Seasonal forecasting; Statistical models; UK

Indexed keywords

HYDROLOGY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; RIVERS; STATISTICAL METHODS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

DYNAMICAL APPROACHES; EMPIRICAL TECHNIQUES; RIVER FLOWS; STATISTICAL MODELS;

STREAM FLOW;

DATA SET; DYNAMIC PROPERTY; FORECASTING METHOD; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HYDROLOGY; RIVER FLOW; SEASONALITY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 33845532234     PISSN: 01447815     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (30)

1. Abawi, G. Y. & Dutta, S. C. (1998) Forecasting of streamflows in NE-Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index. In: International Conference on Engineering in Agriculture, 27-30 Sept. Proc. Univ. of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
2. Barry, R. G. & Chorley, R. J. (1998) Atmosphere, Weather and Climate. Routledge, London.
3. Dracup, J. A. & Kahya, E. (1994) The relationships between US streamflow and La Nina events. Water Resour. Res. 30, 2133-2141.
4. Ely, L. L., Enzel, Y. & Cayan, D. R. (1994) Anomalous North Pacific atmospheric circulation and large winter floods in the Southwestern United States. J. Climate 7, 977-987.
5. Eshel, G., Cane, M. A. & Farrel, B. F. (2000) Forecasting Eastern Mediterranean Droughts. Mon. Weath. Rev 128, 3618-3630.
6. Feddersen, H. and Andersen, U. (2005) A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions. Tellus A 57, 398-408.
7. Galvao, C. O., Clarke, R. T., Davies, T. D. & Jones, P. D. (1999) Evaluation of seasonal forecasting methods for water resource management in northeastern Brazil. In: Hydrological Extremes: Understanding, Predicting, Mitigating (ed. by L. Gottschalk, J.-C. Olivry, D. Reed & D. Rosbjerg), 289-295. IAHS Publ. 255. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
8. Goddard, L., Mason, S. J., Zebiak, S. E., Ropelewski, C. F., Basher, R. & Cane, M. A. (2001) Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 1111-1152.
9. Harrison, M. (2005) The development of seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting. Climatic Change 70, 201-220.
10. Kiem, A. S. & Franks, S. W. (2001) On the identification of ENSO-induced rainfall and runoff variability: a comparison of methods and indices. Hydrol. Sci. J. 46, 715-727.
11. Krasovskaia, I., Gottschalk, L., Rodriguez, A. & Laporte, S. (1999) Dependence of the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods in Costa Rica on the Southern Oscillation Index. In: Hydrological Extremes: Understanding, Predicting, Mitigating (ed. by L. Gottschalk, J.-C. Olivry, D. Reed & D. Rosbjerg), 81-89. IAHS Publ. 255. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
12. Landman, W. A., Mason, S. J., Tyson, P. D. & Tennant, W. (2001) Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow. J. Hydrol. 252, 221-236.
13. Leung, L. R., Hamlet, A. F., Lettenmaier, D. P. & Kumar, A. (1999) Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 80, 2313-2329.
14. Mason, S. J., Goddard, L., Graham, N. E., Yulaeva, E., Sun, L. Q. & Arkin, P. A. (1999) The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Nino event. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 80, 1853-1873.
15. McGregor, G. R. & Phillips, I. D. (2004) Specification and prediction of monthly and seasonal rainfall over the south-west peninsula of England. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 130, 193-210.
16. Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M. & Delecluse, P., et al. (2004) Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 85, 853-872.
17. Schar, C., Vasilina, L., Pertziger, F. & Dirren, S. (2004) Seasonal runoff forecasting using precipitation from meteorological data assimilation systems. J. Hydromel. 5, 959-973.
18. Stahl, K. & Demuth, S. (1999) Investigating the influence of atmospheric circulation patterns on regional streamflow drought in southern Germany. In: Hydrological Extremes: Understanding, Predicting, Mitigating (ed. by L. Gottschalk, J.-C. Olivry, D. Reed & D. Rosbjerg), 19-27. IAHS Publ. 255. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
19. Svensson, C. & Prudhomme, C. (2005) Prediction of British summer river flows using winter predictors. Theoretical Appl. Climatol. 82, 1-15.
20. Trigo, R. M., Pozo-Vazquez, D., Osborn, T. J., Castro-Diez, Y., Gamiz-Fortis, S. & Esteban-Parra, M. J. (2004) North Atlantic oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian peninsula. Int. J. Climatol. 24, 925-944.
21. Uppala, S. M., Kallberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D., Fiorino, M. et al. (2005) The ERA-40 reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 131, 2961-3012.
22. Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Balmaseda, M., Ferranti, L., Stockdale, T. N. & Anderson, D. (2005) Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform a statistical model over the last 15 years? J. Climate 18, 3240-3249.
23. Washington, R. & Downing, T. E. (1999) Seasonal forecasting of African rainfall: Prediction, responses and household food security. Geographical J. 165, 255-274.
24. Wedgbrow, C. S., Wilby, R. L., Fox, H. R. & O'Hare, G. (2002) Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 219-236.
25. Wedgbrow, C. S., Wilby, R. L. & Fox, H. R. (2005) Experimental seasonal forecasts of low summer flows in the River Thames, UK, using Expert Systems. Climate Res. 28, 133-141.
26. Wilby, R. L. (2001) Seasonal forecasting of river flows in the British Isles using North Atlantic pressure patterns. J. CIWEM 15, 56-63.
27. Wilby, R. L. & Wigley, T. M. L. (1997) Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progr. Phys. Geogr. 21, 530-548.
28. Wilby, R. L., Hay, L. E., Gutowski Jr, W. J., Arrit, R. W., Takle, E. S., Pan, Z., et al. (2000) Hydrologic responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 1199-1202.
29. Wilby, R. L., Wedgbrow, C. S. & Fox, H. R. (2004) Seasonal predictability of the summer hydrometeorology of the River Thames, UK. J. Hydrol. 295, 1-16.
30. Zwiers, F. W. & von Storch, H. (2004) On the role of statistics in climate research. Int. J. Climatol. 24, 665-680.