Tropical Indian Ocean variability in the IPCC twentieth-century climate simulations

Journal of Climate

Volumn 19, Issue 17, 2006, Pages 4397-4417

  Saji, N H ^a   Xie, S P ^a   Yamagata, T ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); STORMS; WATER WAVES; WIND;

BJERKNES FEEDBACK; INDIAN OCEAN (IO) CLIMATE VARIABILITY; OCEAN ROSSBY WAVES; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (CGCMS);

OCEANOGRAPHY;

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; ROSSBY WAVE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TELECONNECTION; THERMOCLINE; TROPICAL METEOROLOGY;

INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 33749066989     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3847.1     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Alexander, M. A., I. Bladé, M. Newman, J. R. Lazante, N.-C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Climate, 15, 2205-2231.
2. Annamalai H., S.-P. Xie, J.-P. McCreary, and R. Murtugudde, 2005: Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. J. Climate, 18, 302-319.
3. Ashok, K., Z. Guan, and T. Yamagata, 2001: Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4499-4502.
4. Behera, S. K., J. J. Luo, S. Masson, P. Delecluse, S. Gualdi, and A. Navarra, 2005: Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the cast African short rains: A CGCM study. J. Climate, 18, 4514-4530.
5. Black, E., J. Slingo, and K. R. Sperber, 2003: An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 74-94.
6. Cadet, D. L., 1985: The Southern Oscillation over the Indian Ocean. J. Climatol., 5, 189-212.
7. Cai, W., H. H. Hendon, and G. Meyers, 2005: Indian Ocean dipolelike variability in the CSIRO Mark 3 coupled climate model. J. Climate, 18, 1449-1468.
8. Carton, J. A., G. Chepurin, X. Cao, and B. Giese, 2000: A simple ocean data assimilation analysis of the global upper ocean 1950-95. Part I: Methodology. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 294-309.
9. Clarke, A. J., and X. Liu, 1994: Interannual sea level in the northern and eastern Indian Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 1224-1235.
10. Davey, M. K., and Coauthors, 2002: STOIC: A study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Climate Dyn., 18, 403-420.
11. Delworth, T., and Coauthors, 2006: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19, 643-674.
12. Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the Tropics and North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 3109-3124.
13. Diansky, N., and E. Volodin, 2002: Simulation of present-day climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Izv. Atmos. Oceanic Phys., 38, 732-747.
14. Drosdowsky, W., 1993: Potential predictability of winter rainfall over southern and eastern Australia using Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies, Aust. Meteor. Mag., 42, 1-6.
15. England, M., C. C. Ummenhofer, and A. Santoso, 2006: Interannual rainfall extremes over southwest western Australia linked to Indian Ocean climate variability. J. Climate, 19, 1948-1969.
16. Fischer, A., P. Terray, E. Guilyardi, S. Gualdi, and P. Delecluse, 2005: Two independent triggers for the Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode in a coupled GCM. J. Climate, 18, 3428-3449.
17. Flato, G., and G. Boer, 2001: Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 195-198.
18. Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2003: Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science, 302, 1027-1030.
19. Goddard, L., and N. E. Graham, 1999: The importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19 099-19 116.
20. Goosse, H., and T. Fichefet, 1999: Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: A model study. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 23 337-23 355.
21. Gordon, C., C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, H. T. Banks, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell, and R. A. Wood, 2000: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn., 16, 147-168,
22. Gualdi, S. E., E. Guilyardi, A. Navarra, S. Masina, and P. Delecluse, 2003: The interannual variability in the Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM. Climate Dyn., 20, 567-582.
23. Hoerling, M., J. Hurrell, T. Xu, G. T. Bates, and A. Phillips, 2004: Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dyn., 23, 391-405.
24. Iizuka, S., T. Matsuura, and T. Yamagata, 2000: The Indian Ocean SST dipole simulated in a coupled general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3369-3372.
25. Kiehl, J. T., and P. R. Gent, 2004: The Community Climate System Model, version 2. J. Climate, 17, 3666-3682.
26. Klein, S. A., B. J. Soden, and N. C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Climate, 12, 917-932.
27. Lareef, Z., A. S. Rao, and T. Yamagata, 2003: Modulation of Sri Lankan Maha rainfall by the Indian Ocean dipole. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1063, doi:10.1029/2002GL015639.
28. Latif, M., D. Dommenget, and M. Dima, 1999: The role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in forcing east African rainfall anomalies during December-January 1997/98. J. Climate, 12, 3497-3504.
29. Lau, N.-C., and M. J. Nath, 2004: Coupled GCM simulation of atmosphere-ocean variability associated with the zonally asymmetric SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 17, 245-265.
30. Li, J., and A. J. Clarke, 2004: Coastline direction, interannual flow, and the strong El Niño currents along Australia's nearly zonal southern coast. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2373-2381.
31. Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and J. Loschnigg, 2003: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and the TBO. J. Climate, 16, 2138-2158.
32. Meehl, G. A., W. Washington, W. Collins, J. Arblaster, A. Hu, L. Buja, W. Strand, and H. Teng, 2005: How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772.
33. Meyers, G., 1996: Variation of Indonesian throughflow and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 12 255-12 263.
34. Murtugudde, R. G., J. P. McCreary, and A. J. Busalacchi, 2000: Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997-1998. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 3295-3306.
35. Neelin, J. D., and Coauthors, 1998: ENSO theory. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 261-14 290.
36. Nicholls, N., 1989: Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall. J. Climate, 2, 965-973.
37. Nigam, S., and H.-S. Shen, 1993: Structure of oceanic and atmospheric low-frequency variability over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. Part I: COADS observations. J. Climate, 6, 1750-1771.
38. Nozawa, T., T. Nagashima, H. Shiogama, and S. A. Crooks, 2005: Detecting natural influence on surface air temperatures change in the early twenthieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett, 23, L20719, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023540.
39. Okumuara, Y., and S.-P. Xie, 2004: Interaction of the Atlantic equatorial cold tongue and African monsoon. J. Climate, 17, 3588-3601.
40. Pan, H. Y., and A. H. Oort, 1983: Global climate variations associated with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for the 1958-1973 period. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1244-1258.
41. Perigaud, C., and J. McCreary, 2003: Influence of interannual. rainfall anomalies on sea level variations in the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3335, doi:10.1029/2003JC001857.
42. Potemra, J. T., 2001: The potential role of equatorial Pacific winds on southern tropical Indian Ocean Rossby waves. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 2407-2422.
43. Qu, T., and G. Meyers, 2005: Seasonal variation of barrier layer in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 110, C11003, doi:10.1029/2004JC002816.
44. Rao, A. S., S. K. Behera, Y. Masumoto, and T. Yamagata, 2002: Interannual variability in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Deep-Sea Res., 49B, 1549-1572.
45. Rao, S., and T. Yamagata, 2004: Abrupt termination of Indian Ocean dipole events in response to intraseasonal disturbances. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L19306, doi:10.1029/2004GL020842.
46. Rao, S., and S. Behera, 2005: Subsurface influence on SST in the tropical Indian Ocean: Structure and interannual variability. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 39, 103-135.
47. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, P. Frich, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, and L. V. Alexander, 2000: SST and sea-ice fields for ERA40. Proc. Second WCRP Int. Conf. on Reanalyses, Reading, United Kingdom, WCRP-109, WMO/ TD-No. 985, 18-21.
48. Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.
49. Russell, G., J. Miller, and D. Rind, 1995: A coupled atmosphere-ocean model for transient climate change studies. Atmos.-Ocean, 33, 683-730.
50. Saji, N. H., and T. Yamagata, 2003a: Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate. Climate Res., 25, 151-169.
51. Saji, N. H., and T. Yamagata, 2003b: Structure of SST and surface wind variability during Indian Ocean dipole mode years: COADS observations. J. Climate, 16, 2735-2751.
52. Saji N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360-363.
53. Saji N. H., T. Ambrizzi, and S. Simone, 2005a: Indian Ocean Dipole mode events and austral surface temperature anomalies. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 39, 87-101.
54. Schmidt, G., and Coauthors, 2006: Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in situ, satellite, and reanalysis data. J Climate, 19, 153-192.
55. Shinoda, T., H. H. Hendon, and M. A. Alexander, 2004: Surface and subsurface dipole variability in the Indian Ocean and its relation with ENSO. Deep-Sea Res., 51, 619-635.
56. Spencer, H., R. Sutton, J. Slingo, M. Roberts, and E. Black, 2005: Indian Ocean climate and dipole variability in Hadley Centre coupled GCMs. J. Climate, 18, 2286-2307.
57. Timmermann, A. J., J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, and E. Roeckner, 1999: Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature, 398, 694-697.
58. Venzke, S., M. Latif, and A. Villwock, 2000: The coupled GCM ECHO-2. Part II: Indian Ocean response to ENSO. J. Climate, 13, 1371-1387.
59. Verschell, M. A., J. C. Kindle, and J. J. O'Brien, 1995: Effects of Indo-Pacific throughflow on the upper tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 18 409-18 420.
60. Wajsowicz, R. C., 2005: Forecasting extreme events in the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 39, 137-151.
61. Wang, B., R. Wu, and T. Li, 2003: Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impact on Asian-Australian monsoon variability. J. Climate, 16, 1195-1211.
62. Webster, P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben, 1999: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98. Nature, 401, 356-360.
63. Wijffels, S., and G. Meyers, 2004: An intersection of oceanic waveguides: Variability in the Indonesian throughflow region. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 1232-1253.
64. Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO in a coupled GCM. J. Climate, 17, 4019-4031.
65. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1996: Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J. Climate, 9, 840-858.
66. Xie, S.-P., Y. Tanimoto, H. Noguchi, and T. Matsuno, 1999: How and why climate variability differs between the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1609-1612.
67. Xie, H. Annamalai, F. A. Schott, and J. P. McCreary, 2002: Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. J. Climate, 15, 864-878.
68. Yamagata, T., S. K. Behera, J. J. Luo, S. Masson, M. R. Jury, and S. A. Rao, 2004: Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 189-212.
69. Yu, J. Y., C. R. Mechoso, J.C. McWilliams, and A. Arakawa, 2002: Impacts of Indian Ocean on ENSO cycles. Geophys. Res. Lett, 29, 1204, doi:10.1029/2001GL014098.
70. Yu, Y., X. Zhang, and Y. Guo, 2004: Global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models in LASG/IAP. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 444-455.
71. Yukimoto, S., and Coauthors, 2001: The New Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) - Model climate and variability. Pap. Meteor. Geophys., 51, 47-88.
72. Yulaeva, E., and J. M. Wallace, 1994: The signature of ENSO in global temperature and precipitation fields derived from the Microwave Sounding Unit. J. Climate 7, 1719-1736.