메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 19, Issue 6, 2004, Pages 1089-1105

A consolidated CLIPER model for improved August-September ENSO prediction skill

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTATIONAL METHODS; HURRICANE EFFECTS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); STORMS;

EID: 3042793879     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/813.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (11)

References (35)
  • 1
    • 0027070241 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis
    • Barnston, A. G., and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.
    • (1992) J. Climate , vol.5 , pp. 1316-1345
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Ropelewski, C.F.2
  • 2
    • 0010387656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive skill of statistical and dynamic climate models in forecasts of SST during the 1997-98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niñ a onset
    • Barnston, A. G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamic climate models in forecasts of SST during the 1997-98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 217-243.
    • (1999) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.80 , pp. 217-243
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Glantz, M.H.2    He, Y.3
  • 4
    • 0022190472 scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon
    • Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 599-606.
    • (1985) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.113 , pp. 599-606
    • Chan, J.C.L.1
  • 5
    • 0034352901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation
    • Dai, A., and T. M. L. Wigley, 2000: Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1283-1286.
    • (2000) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.27 , pp. 1283-1286
    • Dai, A.1    Wigley, T.M.L.2
  • 7
    • 84945737762 scopus 로고
    • A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife and cross validation
    • Efron, B., and G. Gong, 1983: A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife and cross validation. Amer. Stat., 37, 36-48.
    • (1983) Amer. Stat. , vol.37 , pp. 36-48
    • Efron, B.1    Gong, G.2
  • 8
    • 0000165587 scopus 로고
    • A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories
    • Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
    • (1969) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.8 , pp. 985-987
    • Epstein, E.S.1
  • 9
    • 0016128505 scopus 로고
    • Regression by leaps and bounds
    • Furnival, G. M., and R. W. Wilson, 1974: Regression by leaps and bounds. Technometrics, 16, 499-511.
    • (1974) Technometrics , vol.16 , pp. 499-511
    • Furnival, G.M.1    Wilson, R.W.2
  • 11
    • 0242267725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the IRI's "net assessment" seasonal climate forecasts
    • Goddard, L., A. G. Barnston, and S. J. Mason, 2003: Evaluation of the IRI's "net assessment" seasonal climate forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1761-1781.
    • (2003) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.84 , pp. 1761-1781
    • Goddard, L.1    Barnston, A.G.2    Mason, S.J.3
  • 12
    • 0034074537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models
    • Goerss, J. S., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1187-1193.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.128 , pp. 1187-1193
    • Goerss, J.S.1
  • 13
    • 0021544433 scopus 로고
    • Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences
    • Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1649-1668.
    • (1984) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.112 , pp. 1649-1668
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 15
    • 0034644623 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Second thoughts on skill of El Niño predictions
    • Kerr, R. A., 2000: Second thoughts on skill of El Niño predictions. Science, 290, 257-258.
    • (2000) Science , vol.290 , pp. 257-258
    • Kerr, R.A.1
  • 16
    • 0032216383 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction
    • Kirtman, B. P., and P. S. Schopf, 1998: Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction. J. Climate, 11, 2804-2822.
    • (1998) J. Climate , vol.11 , pp. 2804-2822
    • Kirtman, B.P.1    Schopf, P.S.2
  • 17
    • 11344277128 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Current status of ENSO forecast skill
    • Report to the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Numerical Experimentation Group (NEG), CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction. [Available on line at]
    • Kirtman B. P., J. Shukla, M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, and S. Zebiak, cited 2002: Current status of ENSO forecast skill. Report to the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Numerical Experimentation Group (NEG), CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction. [Available on line at http://www.clivar.org/ publications/wg_reports/wgsip/nino3/report.htm.]
    • (2002)
    • Kirtman, B.P.1    Shukla, J.2    Balmaseda, M.3    Graham, N.4    Penland, C.5    Xue, Y.6    Zebiak, S.7
  • 18
    • 0031225181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatology and persistence (CLIPER) forecasting scheme
    • Knaff, J. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1997: An El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatology and persistence (CLIPER) forecasting scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633-652.
    • (1997) Wea. Forecasting , vol.12 , pp. 633-652
    • Knaff, J.A.1    Landsea, C.W.2
  • 19
    • 0037731022 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-98 El Niño?
    • Landsea, C. W., and J. A. Knaff, 2000: How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-98 El Niño? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2107-2119.
    • (2000) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.81 , pp. 2107-2119
    • Landsea, C.W.1    Knaff, J.A.2
  • 21
    • 0036464780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of some statistical methods of probabilistic forecasting of ENSO
    • Mason, S. J., and G. M. Mimmack, 2002: Comparison of some statistical methods of probabilistic forecasting of ENSO. J. Climate, 15, 8-29.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 8-29
    • Mason, S.J.1    Mimmack, G.M.2
  • 22
    • 0024145684 scopus 로고
    • Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to a correlation coefficient
    • Murphy, A. H., 1988: Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to a correlation coefficient. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2417-2424.
    • (1988) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.116 , pp. 2417-2424
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 23
    • 0020391175 scopus 로고
    • Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño
    • Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384.
    • (1982) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.110 , pp. 354-384
    • Rasmusson, E.M.1    Carpenter, T.H.2
  • 24
    • 0036648346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate
    • Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. H. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 1609-1625
    • Reynolds, R.W.1    Rayner, N.A.2    Smith, T.H.3    Stokes, D.C.4    Wang, W.5
  • 25
    • 0000335197 scopus 로고
    • Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
    • Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 1606-1626
    • Ropelewski, C.F.1    Halpert, M.S.2
  • 26
    • 0001487308 scopus 로고
    • An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index
    • Ropelewski, C. F., and P. D. Jones, 1987: An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2161-2165.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 2161-2165
    • Ropelewski, C.F.1    Jones, P.D.2
  • 27
    • 0034352453 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall
    • Saunders, M. A., R. E. Chandler, C. J. Merchant, and E. P. Roberts, 2000: Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1147-1150.
    • (2000) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.27 , pp. 1147-1150
    • Saunders, M.A.1    Chandler, R.E.2    Merchant, C.J.3    Roberts, E.P.4
  • 28
    • 0000919829 scopus 로고
    • How to improve accuracy by combining independent forecasts
    • Thompson, P. D., 1977: How to improve accuracy by combining independent forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 228-229.
    • (1977) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.105 , pp. 228-229
    • Thompson, P.D.1
  • 29
    • 0032444250 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The annual cycle of persistence in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
    • Torrence, C., and P. J. Webster, 1998: The annual cycle of persistence in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 124, 1985-2004.
    • (1998) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.124 , pp. 1985-2004
    • Torrence, C.1    Webster, P.J.2
  • 30
    • 0031400134 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The definition of El Niño
    • Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2778.
    • (1997) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.78 , pp. 2771-2778
    • Trenberth, K.E.1
  • 31
    • 0042278884 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consolidated forecasts of tropical Pacific SST in Niño 3.4 using two dynamical models and two statistical models
    • NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center
    • Unger, D., A. Barnston, H. Van den Dool, and V. Kousky, 1996: Consolidated forecasts of tropical Pacific SST in Niño 3.4 using two dynamical models and two statistical models. Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, Vol. 5, No. 1, NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center, 50-52.
    • (1996) Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin , vol.5 , Issue.1 , pp. 50-52
    • Unger, D.1    Barnston, A.2    Van den Dool, H.3    Kousky, V.4
  • 33
    • 0036537993 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The BMRC coupled general circulation model ENSO forecast system
    • Wang, G., R. Kleeman, N. Smith, and F. Tseitkin, 2002: The BMRC coupled general circulation model ENSO forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 975-991.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 975-991
    • Wang, G.1    Kleeman, R.2    Smith, N.3    Tseitkin, F.4
  • 35
    • 11344283146 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Standardised Verification System (SVS) for long-range forecasts (LRF)
    • WMO, Attachment II-9 to the Manual on the GDPS (WMO 485), WMO
    • WMO, 2002: Standardised Verification System (SVS) for long-range forecasts (LRF). Attachment II-9 to the Manual on the GDPS (WMO 485), Vol. I, WMO, 21 pp.
    • (2002) , vol.1 , pp. 21


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.