Predictable skill and its association to sea-surface temperature variations in an ensemble climate simulation

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Volumn 110, Issue 19, 2005, Pages 1-21

  Schlosser, C Adam ^a   Kirtman, Ben P ^b,c  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c CENTER FOR OCEAN LAND ATMOSPHERE STUDIES   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE SIGNAL; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FORECASTING METHOD; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 28044466932     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2005JD005835     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Brankovic, C., T. N. Palmer, and L. Ferranti (1994), Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations, J. Clim., 7, 217-237.
2. Chervin, R. M. (1988), Predictability of time averaged atmospheric states, in Physically Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climate Change: Part II, edited by M. E. Schlesinger, pp. 983-1008, Springer, New York.
3. Dirmeyer, P. A., (2001), Climate drift in a coupled land-atmosphere model, J. Hydrometeorol., 2, 89-100.
4. Dirmeyer, P. A., and F. J. Zeng (1999), An update to the distribution and treatment of vegetation and soil properties in SSiB, Tech. Rep. 78, 25 pp., Cent. for Ocean Land Atmos. Stud., Calverton, Md.
5. Efron, B. (1979), Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife, Ann. Stat., 7, 1-26.
6. Fennessy, M., and Y. Shukla (1998), Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal atmospheric prediction, J. Clim., 12, 3167-3180.
7. Ferranti, L., F. Moltini, and T. N. Palmer (1994), Impact of localized tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in ensembles of seasonal GCM integrations, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 1613-1645.
8. Folland, C., J. Shukla, J. Kinter, and M. Rodwell (2002), The climate of the 20th century project, CLIVAR Exch., 7, 37-39.
9. Gates, W. L., et al. (1999), An overview of the results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 29-55.
10. Graham, N. E., T. P. Barnett, R. Wilde, U. Schleses, and L. Bengtsson (1994), On the roles of tropical and midlatitude SSTs in forcing interannual to interdecadal variability in the winter Northern Hemisphere circulation, J. Clim., 7, 1416-1441.
11. Hall, N. M. J., H. Lin, and J. Derome (2001), The extratropical signal generated by a midlatitude SST anomaly: Part II. Influence of seasonal forecasts, J. Clim., 14, 2696-2709.
12. Kalnay, E., et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437-471.
13. Kinter, J. L., III, D. Dewitt, P. A. Dirmeyer, M. J. Fennessy, B. P. Kirtman, L. Marx, E. K. Schneider, J. Shukla, and D. M. Straus (1997), The COLA atmosphere-biosphere general circulation model: 1. Formulation, Tech. Rep. 51, 43 pp., Cent. for Ocean Land Atmos. Stud., Calverton, Md.
14. Kirtman, B. P., D. A. Paolino, J. L. Kinter III, and D. M. Straus (2001), Impact of tropical subseasonal SST variability on seasonal mean climate, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 853-868.
15. Kumar, A., M. P. Hoerling, M. Ji, A. Leetma, and P. D. Sardeshmukh (1996), Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions, J. Clim., 9, 115-129.
16. Lau, N.-C. (1985), Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Niños in 1962-76, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 1970-1996.
17. Lau, N.-C. (1997), Interactions between global SST anomalies and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 21-33.
18. Lau, N.-C., and M. J. Nadi (1994), A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere ocean-system, J. Clim., 7, 1184-1207.
19. Livezey, R. E., and W. Y. Chen (1983), Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 46-59.
20. Madden, R. A. (1976), Estimates of natural variability of time-averaged sea level pressure, Mon. Weather Rev., 104, 942-952.
21. Palmer, T. N. (1988), Medium and extended-range predictability and stability of the Pacific-North American mode, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 114, 691-713.
22. Palmer, T. N., et al. (2004), Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 853-872.
23. Ropelewski, C. F., J. E. Janowiak, and M. S. Halpert (1985), The analysis and display of real time surface climate data, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 1101-1106.
24. Rowell, D. P. (1998), Assessing the potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations, J. Clim., 11, 109-120.
25. Schlosser, C. A., and P. A. Dirmeyer (2001), Potential predictability of Eurasian snow cover, Atmos. Sci. Lett., I, doi:10.1006/asle.2001.0037. (Available at http://www.academicpress.com/asl)
26. Sela, J. G. (1980), Spectral modeling at the National Meteorological Center, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1279-1292.
27. Shukla, J., and D. Gutzler (1983), Interannual variability and predictability of 500-mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1273-1279.
28. Shukla, J., et al. (2000a), Dynamical seasonal prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 2593-2606.
29. Shukla, J., D. A. Paolino, D. M. Straus, D. DeWitt, M. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx, and R. Mo (2000b), Dynamical seasonal predictions with the COLA atmospheric model, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2265-2292.
30. Snedecor, G. W. (1946), Statistical Methods, 485 pp., Iowa State College Press, Ames.
31. Straus, D. M., and J. Shukla (2000), Distinguishing between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid-latitudes: Analysis of observations and GCM simulations, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2323-2350.
32. Taylor, K. E., D. Williamson, and F. Zwiers (2000), The sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration boundary conditions for AMIP II simulations, Rep. Ser. 60, 28 pp., Program for Clim. Model Diag. and Intercomparison, Livermore, Calif.
33. Trenberth, K. E. (1985), Potential predictability of geopotential heights over the Southern Hemisphere, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 54-64.
34. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin (1997), Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2359-2558.
35. Xue, Y., P. J. Sellers, J. L. Kinter III, and J. Shukla (1991), A simplified biosphere model for global climate studies, J. Clim., 4, 345-364.
36. Zwiers, F. W. (1987), A potential predictability study conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2957-2974.
37. Zwiers, F. W. (1996), Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2, Clim. Dyn., 12, 825-848.