메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 18, Issue 17, 2005, Pages 3571-3586

Integrating ocean subsurface temperatures in statistical ENSO forecasts

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OCEANOGRAPHY; STATISTICAL METHODS;

EID: 27344432167     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3477.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (25)

References (46)
  • 1
    • 0037110317 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual sea level changes and associated mass transports in the tropical Pacific from TOPEX/Poseidon data and linear model results (1964-1999)
    • doi:10.1029/2001JC001067
    • Alory, G., and T. Delcroix, 2002: Interannual sea level changes and associated mass transports in the tropical Pacific from TOPEX/Poseidon data and linear model results (1964-1999). J. Geophys. Res., 107, 3153, doi:10.1029/2001JC001067.
    • (2002) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.107 , pp. 3153
    • Alory, G.1    Delcroix, T.2
  • 2
    • 0029434671 scopus 로고
    • Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill
    • Balmaseda, M. A., M. K. Davey, and D. L. T. Anderson, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Climate, 8, 2705-2715.
    • (1995) J. Climate , vol.8 , pp. 2705-2715
    • Balmaseda, M.A.1    Davey, M.K.2    Anderson, D.L.T.3
  • 3
    • 0000123158 scopus 로고
    • Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for U.S. surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis
    • Barnett, T. P., and R. Preisendorfer, 1987: Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for U.S. surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1825-1850.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 1825-1850
    • Barnett, T.P.1    Preisendorfer, R.2
  • 4
    • 0027070241 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis
    • Barnston, A. G., and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.
    • (1992) J. Climate , vol.5 , pp. 1316-1345
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Ropelewski, C.F.2
  • 5
    • 0027525728 scopus 로고
    • A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts
    • Barston, A. G., and H. M. Van den Dool, 1993: A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts. J. Climate, 6, 963-977.
    • (1993) J. Climate , vol.6 , pp. 963-977
    • Barston, A.G.1    Van den Dool, H.M.2
  • 6
    • 0010387656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997/98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset
    • Barston, A. G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997/98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 217-243.
    • (1999) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.80 , pp. 217-243
    • Barston, A.G.1    Glantz, M.H.2    He, Y.3
  • 8
    • 0024831079 scopus 로고
    • Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry, and nonlinearity
    • Battisti, D. S., and A. C. Hirst, 1989: Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry, and nonlinearity. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1687-1712.
    • (1989) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.46 , pp. 1687-1712
    • Battisti, D.S.1    Hirst, A.C.2
  • 9
    • 0028667310 scopus 로고
    • A coupled ocean-atmosphere instability of relevance to the seasonal cycle
    • Chang, P., and S. G. Philander, 1994: A coupled ocean-atmosphere instability of relevance to the seasonal cycle. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3627-3648.
    • (1994) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.51 , pp. 3627-3648
    • Chang, P.1    Philander, S.G.2
  • 10
    • 0141762350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving El Niño prediction using a space-time integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content
    • doi:10.1029/2002GL016673
    • Clarke, A. J., and S. van Gorder, 2003: Improving El Niño prediction using a space-time integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1399, doi:10.1029/2002GL016673.
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.30 , pp. 1399
    • Clarke, A.J.1    van Gorder, S.2
  • 11
    • 0036139373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal and interannual modulation of mixed layer variability at 0°, 110°W
    • Cronin, M. F., and W. S. Kessler, 2002: Seasonal and interannual modulation of mixed layer variability at O°, 110°W. Deep-Sea Res., 49, 1-17.
    • (2002) Deep-Sea Res. , vol.49 , pp. 1-17
    • Cronin, M.F.1    Kessler, W.S.2
  • 12
    • 0037892048 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observed surface oceanic and atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific at seasonal and ENSO time-scales: A tentative overview
    • Delcroix, T., 1998: Observed surface oceanic and atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific at seasonal and ENSO time-scales: A tentative overview. J. Geophys. Res., 103 (C9), 18 611-18 633.
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103 , Issue.C9 , pp. 18611-18633
    • Delcroix, T.1
  • 13
    • 0036810486 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The equatorial thermocline outcropping - A seasonal control on the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere instability strength
    • Galanti, E., E. Tziperman, M. Harrison, A. Rosati, R. Giering, and Z. Sirkes, 2002: The equatorial thermocline outcropping - A seasonal control on the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere instability strength. J. Climate, 15, 2721-2739.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 2721-2739
    • Galanti, E.1    Tziperman, E.2    Harrison, M.3    Rosati, A.4    Giering, R.5    Sirkes, Z.6
  • 14
    • 0030703115 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Niño in the 1990s
    • Goddard, L., and N. E. Graham, 1997: El Niño in the 1990s. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (C5), 10 423-10 436.
    • (1997) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.102 , Issue.C5 , pp. 10423-10436
    • Goddard, L.1    Graham, N.E.2
  • 16
    • 0000330233 scopus 로고
    • An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. Part 2: Model results
    • Graham, N. E., and J. Michaelsen, 1987: An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. Part 2: Model results. J. Geophys. Res., 92 (C13), 14 271-14 289.
    • (1987) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.92 , Issue.C13 , pp. 14271-14289
    • Graham, N.E.1    Michaelsen, J.2
  • 17
    • 0035866869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Niño and La Niña - Equatorial Pacific thermocline depth and sea surface temperature anomalies, 1986-98
    • Harrison, D. E., and G. A. Vecchi, 2001: El Niño and La Niña-Equatorial Pacific thermocline depth and sea surface temperature anomalies, 1986-98. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1051-1054.
    • (2001) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.28 , pp. 1051-1054
    • Harrison, D.E.1    Vecchi, G.A.2
  • 18
    • 0001098341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of data assimilation on ocean initialization and El Niño prediction
    • Ji, M., and A. Leetmaa, 1997: Impact of data assimilation on ocean initialization and El Niño prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 742-753.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 742-753
    • Ji, M.1    Leetmaa, A.2
  • 19
    • 0030832717 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part II: A stripped-down coupled model
    • Jin, F. F., 1997: An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part II: A stripped-down coupled model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 830-847.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.54 , pp. 830-847
    • Jin, F.F.1
  • 20
    • 0032756745 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EOF-based linear prediction algorithm: Examples
    • Kim, K. Y., and G. R. North, 1999: EOF-based linear prediction algorithm: Examples. J. Climate, 12, 2076-2092.
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 2076-2092
    • Kim, K.Y.1    North, G.R.2
  • 21
    • 0000342980 scopus 로고
    • Empirical eigenvectors of sea level pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation complexes over North America
    • Kutzbach, J., 1967: Empirical eigenvectors of sea level pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation complexes over North America. J. Appl. Meteor., 6, 791-802.
    • (1967) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.6 , pp. 791-802
    • Kutzbach, J.1
  • 22
    • 0037731022 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997/98 El Niño
    • Landsea, C. W., and J. A. Knaff, 2000: How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997/98 El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2107-2119.
    • (2000) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.81 , pp. 2107-2119
    • Landsea, C.W.1    Knaff, J.A.2
  • 23
    • 0027071470 scopus 로고
    • How much predictive skill is contained in the thermal structure of an OGCM?
    • Latif, M., and N. E. Graham, 1992: How much predictive skill is contained in the thermal structure of an OGCM? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 951-962.
    • (1992) J. Phys. Oceanogr. , vol.22 , pp. 951-962
    • Latif, M.1    Graham, N.E.2
  • 24
    • 0036464780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of some statistical methods in probabilistic forecasting of ENSO
    • Mason, S. J., and G. M. Mimmack, 2002: Comparison of some statistical methods in probabilistic forecasting of ENSO. J. Climate, 15, 8-29.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 8-29
    • Mason, S.J.1    Mimmack, G.M.2
  • 25
    • 0000334924 scopus 로고
    • A model of tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction
    • McCreary, J. P., 1983: A model of tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 370-387.
    • (1983) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.111 , pp. 370-387
    • McCreary, J.P.1
  • 26
    • 0033548168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Genesis and evolution of the 1997-1998 El Niño
    • McPhaden, M. J., 1999: Genesis and evolution of the 1997-1998 El Niño. Science, 283, 950-954.
    • (1999) Science , vol.283 , pp. 950-954
    • McPhaden, M.J.1
  • 27
    • 0042239277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers
    • doi:10.1029/2003GL016872
    • McPhaden, M. J., 2003: Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1480, doi:10.1029/2003GL016872.
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.30 , pp. 1480
    • McPhaden, M.J.1
  • 28
    • 0033210562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equatorial waves and the 1997/98 El Niño
    • McPhaden, M. J., and X. Yu, 1999: Equatorial waves and the 1997/98 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2961-2964.
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.26 , pp. 2961-2964
    • McPhaden, M.J.1    Yu, X.2
  • 29
    • 0000101471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) observing system: A decade of progress
    • Coauthors
    • McPhaden, M. J., and Coauthors, 1998: The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) observing system: A decade of progress. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 169-14 240.
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103 , pp. 14169-14240
    • McPhaden, M.J.1
  • 30
    • 0034300086 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observations of warm volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to EL Niño and La Niña
    • Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden, 2000: Observations of warm volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to EL Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 13, 3551-3559.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 3551-3559
    • Meinen, C.S.1    McPhaden, M.J.2
  • 32
    • 0000961736 scopus 로고
    • Observed tropospheric biennial variability and its relationship to the Southern Oscillation
    • Ropelewski, C. F., M. S. Halpert, and X. Wang, 1992: Observed tropospheric biennial variability and its relationship to the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 5, 594-614.
    • (1992) J. Climate , vol.5 , pp. 594-614
    • Ropelewski, C.F.1    Halpert, M.S.2    Wang, X.3
  • 33
    • 0001378761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of ocean initial conditions on ENSO forecasting with a coupled model
    • Rosati, A., K. Miyakoda, and R. Gudgel, 1997: The impact of ocean initial conditions on ENSO forecasting with a coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 754-772.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 754-772
    • Rosati, A.1    Miyakoda, K.2    Gudgel, R.3
  • 34
    • 0035668337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Instability of the chaotic ENSO: The growth-phase predictability barrier
    • Samelson, R. M., and E. Tziperman, 2001: Instability of the chaotic ENSO: The growth-phase predictability barrier. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3613-3625.
    • (2001) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.58 , pp. 3613-3625
    • Samelson, R.M.1    Tziperman, E.2
  • 35
    • 0000024524 scopus 로고
    • An improved system for tropical ocean subsurface temperature analyses
    • Smith, N. R., 1995: An improved system for tropical ocean subsurface temperature analyses. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 12, 850-870.
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , vol.12 , pp. 850-870
    • Smith, N.R.1
  • 36
    • 0037790554 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997)
    • Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997). J. Climate, 16, 1495-1510.
    • (2003) J. Climate , vol.16 , pp. 1495-1510
    • Smith, T.M.1    Reynolds, R.W.2
  • 37
    • 0029435517 scopus 로고
    • The impact of Pacific Ocean subsurface data on operational prediction of tropical Pacific SST at the NCEP
    • Smith, T. M., A. G. Barnston, M. Ji, and M. Chelliah, 1995: The impact of Pacific Ocean subsurface data on operational prediction of tropical Pacific SST at the NCEP. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 708-714.
    • (1995) Wea. Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 708-714
    • Smith, T.M.1    Barnston, A.G.2    Ji, M.3    Chelliah, M.4
  • 38
    • 0024250629 scopus 로고
    • A delayed action oscillator for ENSO
    • Suarez, M. J., and P. S. Schopf, 1988: A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 3283-3287.
    • (1988) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.45 , pp. 3283-3287
    • Suarez, M.J.1    Schopf, P.S.2
  • 39
    • 0033046140 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the mechanisms in a tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled general circulation model. Part II: Interannual variability and its relation to the seasonal cycle
    • Vintzileos, A., P. Delecluse, and R. Sadourny, 1999: On the mechanisms in a tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled general circulation model. Part II: Interannual variability and its relation to the seasonal cycle. Climate Dyn., 15, 63-80.
    • (1999) Climate Dyn. , vol.15 , pp. 63-80
    • Vintzileos, A.1    Delecluse, P.2    Sadourny, R.3
  • 40
    • 0034144231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Annual adjustment of the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean
    • Wang, B., R. Wu, and R. Lukas, 2000: Annual adjustment of the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 13, 596-616.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 596-616
    • Wang, B.1    Wu, R.2    Lukas, R.3
  • 41
    • 0022166170 scopus 로고
    • The Southern Oscillation: An ocean-atmosphere feedback system?
    • Wright, P. B., 1985: The Southern Oscillation: An ocean-atmosphere feedback system? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 398-412.
    • (1985) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.66 , pp. 398-412
    • Wright, P.B.1
  • 42
    • 0001476417 scopus 로고
    • Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Niño cycles
    • Wyrtki, K., 1985: Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Niño cycles. J. Geophys. Res., 90, 7129-7132.
    • (1985) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.90 , pp. 7129-7132
    • Wyrtki, K.1
  • 43
    • 0028560976 scopus 로고
    • On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model
    • Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and M. B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus, 46A, 512-528.
    • (1994) Tellus , vol.46 A , pp. 512-528
    • Xue, Y.1    Cane, M.A.2    Zebiak, S.E.3    Blumenthal, M.B.4
  • 44
    • 0343090518 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ENSO prediction with Markov models: The impact of sea level
    • Xue, Y., A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, 2000: ENSO prediction with Markov models: The impact of sea level. J. Climate, 13, 849-871.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 849-871
    • Xue, Y.1    Leetmaa, A.2    Ji, M.3
  • 45
    • 0000723695 scopus 로고
    • Oceanic heat content variability and El Niño cycles
    • Zebiak, S. E., 1989: Oceanic heat content variability and El Niño cycles. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 475-486.
    • (1989) J. Phys. Oceanogr. , vol.19 , pp. 475-486
    • Zebiak, S.E.1
  • 46
    • 0000335201 scopus 로고
    • A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation
    • Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 2262-2278
    • Zebiak, S.E.1    Cane, M.A.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.