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6
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0033540090
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R. S. Stein, Nature 402, 605 (1999).
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(1999)
Nature
, vol.402
, pp. 605
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Stein, R.S.1
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8
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0343652808
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-
note
-
k is Skempton's coefficient. Stress values are found by elastic dislocation in a half space (34); viscoelastic effects are neglected. We used a slip model for the Izmit earthquake developed from InSAR (radar satellite interferometry) (35); slip models of other earthquakes are from (4, 36).
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-
-
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11
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0343652806
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-
note
-
2t)]. where μ, is the average repeat time and α is the coefficient of variation. The lognormal distribution (38) is also used for time-dependent calculations. No catalog is adequate to estimate the coefficient of variation of the interevent time, so we use a conservative value of 0.5 (10, 39).
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-
-
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13
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84995076609
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_, Terra Nova 2, 167 (1990).
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(1990)
Terra Nova
, vol.2
, pp. 167
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-
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15
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0343217197
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Bibliothèque de l'Institut Français d'Etudes Anatoliennes-Georges Dumézil, Paris
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C. F. Finkel and N. N. Ambraseys, The Marmara Sea Earthquake of 10 July 1894 and its Effect on Historic Buildings, Anatolia Moderna Yeni Anadolu VII (Bibliothèque de l'Institut Français d'Etudes Anatoliennes-Georges Dumézil, Paris, 1996), vol. 43.
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The Marmara Sea Earthquake of 10 July 1894 and Its Effect on Historic Buildings, Anatolia Moderna Yeni Anadolu VII
, vol.43
, pp. 1996
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Finkel, C.F.1
Ambraseys, N.N.2
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16
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0342347598
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Supplemental material is available at www. sciencemag.org/feature/data/1049447.shl.
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-
-
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18
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0342782656
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note
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2. Felt reports (MMI < IV) were excluded, and MMI > VIII observations were saturated to VIII because criteria for higher intensities involve observations other than building damage, and because for poorly constructed masonry, damage may be total at MMI = VIII.
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-
-
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19
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0342347595
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-
note
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s within ±0.3 magnitude units. Site corrections were not made, because we find no tendency for epicenters to be pulled toward sedimentary sites, and because improvement was only found in (17) when detailed site geology was available.
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-
-
-
20
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0033492947
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20. J. R. Parke et al., Terra Nova 11, 223 (1999).
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(1999)
Terra Nova
, vol.11
, pp. 223
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Parke, J.R.1
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22
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0343217194
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-
note
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The most recent event for the Yalova segment is 1894.6; Izmit segment, 1999.7; Ganos fault, 1912.7; Prince's Islands fault, 1766.7; and central Marmara fault, 1509.8.
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-
-
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23
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0029479524
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Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 379 (1995).
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(1995)
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.
, vol.85
, pp. 379
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-
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27
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0342782653
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Includes earthquakes in 1509, 1556, 1719, 1754, 1766, 1855, 1857, 1863, 1877, 1894, 1953, and 1964 from (12-14, 36)
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Includes earthquakes in 1509, 1556, 1719, 1754, 1766, 1855, 1857, 1863, 1877, 1894, 1953, and 1964 from (12-14, 36).
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-
-
-
28
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0343652794
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Events occurring in A.D. 447, 478, 542, 557, 740, 869, 989, and 1323
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Events occurring in A.D. 447, 478, 542, 557, 740, 869, 989, and 1323.
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31
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0009489743
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S. Toda, R. S. Stein, P. A. Reasenberg, J. H. Dieterich, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 24543 (1998).
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(1998)
J. Geophys. Res.
, vol.103
, pp. 24543
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Toda, S.1
Stein, R.S.2
Reasenberg, P.A.3
Dieterich, J.H.4
-
32
-
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0343217191
-
-
note
-
c is a conditional probability, which can be calculated using any distribution. In addition to the interevent time and elapsed time on each fault, this technique requires values for the stress change on each fault (we use the average calculated stress change resolved on each fault surface), the transient decay [shown in Fig. 4A from data in (4)], and a stressing rate on each fault derived from the fault geometry and the observed strain rate (0.1 bar/year) (4). We performed 1000 Monte Carlo trials to establish error bounds (42). The four parameters for the Monte Carlo simulations are drawn at random from a normal distribution with a shape factor of 0.25 about each estimate, except for the interevent time for which the shape factor is 0.5. Alternating Monte Carlo trials were run with a Brownian passage time and lognormal distribution.
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33
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0001011237
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D. J. Wald, V. Quitoriano, T. H. Heaton, H. Kanamori, Earthquake Spectra 15, 557 (1999).
-
(1999)
Earthquake Spectra
, vol.15
, pp. 557
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Wald, D.J.1
Quitoriano, V.2
Heaton, T.H.3
Kanamori, H.4
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35
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0040882230
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T. J. Wright, P. C. England, E. J. Fielding, M. Haynes, B. E. Parsons, Eos (Fall Meet. Suppl.) 80, F671 (1999).
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(1999)
Eos (Fall Meet. Suppl.)
, vol.80
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Wright, T.J.1
England, P.C.2
Fielding, E.J.3
Haynes, M.4
Parsons, B.E.5
-
38
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-
0039103916
-
-
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, U.S. Geol. Surv. Circ. 1053 (1990).
-
(1990)
U.S. Geol. Surv. Circ.
, pp. 1053
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-
-
43
-
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0342347585
-
-
note
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c) for faults a through c assumes independent sources of hazard, since we cannot include future interactions and, for all but the most recent earthquakes, we cannot include past interactions.
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-
-
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46
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0033543280
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T. Parsons, R. S. Stein, R. W. Simpson, P. A. Reasenberg, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 20183 (1999).
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(1999)
J. Geophys. Res.
, vol.104
, pp. 20183
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Parsons, T.1
Stein, R.S.2
Simpson, R.W.3
Reasenberg, P.A.4
-
48
-
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0343652790
-
-
note
-
We thank N. Ambraseys, T. Wright, E. Fielding, A. Ito, J. Parke, and C. Finkel for sharing their insights and preliminary results with us, W. Bakun for his code and his review, and J. C. Savage, W. Thatcher, C. Sträub, and S. Kriesch for incisive reviews. Support from SwissRe is gratefully acknowledged.
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