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Volumn 288, Issue 5466, 2000, Pages 661-665

Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; SEISMIC HAZARD; STRONG MOTION;

EID: 0034724954     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.288.5466.661     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (448)

References (48)
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    • R. S. Stein, Nature 402, 605 (1999).
    • (1999) Nature , vol.402 , pp. 605
    • Stein, R.S.1
  • 8
    • 0343652808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • k is Skempton's coefficient. Stress values are found by elastic dislocation in a half space (34); viscoelastic effects are neglected. We used a slip model for the Izmit earthquake developed from InSAR (radar satellite interferometry) (35); slip models of other earthquakes are from (4, 36).
  • 11
    • 0343652806 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • 2t)]. where μ, is the average repeat time and α is the coefficient of variation. The lognormal distribution (38) is also used for time-dependent calculations. No catalog is adequate to estimate the coefficient of variation of the interevent time, so we use a conservative value of 0.5 (10, 39).
  • 13
    • 84995076609 scopus 로고
    • _, Terra Nova 2, 167 (1990).
    • (1990) Terra Nova , vol.2 , pp. 167
  • 16
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    • Supplemental material is available at www. sciencemag.org/feature/data/1049447.shl.
  • 18
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    • note
    • 2. Felt reports (MMI < IV) were excluded, and MMI > VIII observations were saturated to VIII because criteria for higher intensities involve observations other than building damage, and because for poorly constructed masonry, damage may be total at MMI = VIII.
  • 19
    • 0342347595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • s within ±0.3 magnitude units. Site corrections were not made, because we find no tendency for epicenters to be pulled toward sedimentary sites, and because improvement was only found in (17) when detailed site geology was available.
  • 20
  • 22
    • 0343217194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The most recent event for the Yalova segment is 1894.6; Izmit segment, 1999.7; Ganos fault, 1912.7; Prince's Islands fault, 1766.7; and central Marmara fault, 1509.8.
  • 23
    • 0029479524 scopus 로고
    • Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 379 (1995).
    • (1995) Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. , vol.85 , pp. 379
  • 27
    • 0342782653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Includes earthquakes in 1509, 1556, 1719, 1754, 1766, 1855, 1857, 1863, 1877, 1894, 1953, and 1964 from (12-14, 36)
    • Includes earthquakes in 1509, 1556, 1719, 1754, 1766, 1855, 1857, 1863, 1877, 1894, 1953, and 1964 from (12-14, 36).
  • 28
    • 0343652794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Events occurring in A.D. 447, 478, 542, 557, 740, 869, 989, and 1323
    • Events occurring in A.D. 447, 478, 542, 557, 740, 869, 989, and 1323.
  • 32
    • 0343217191 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • c is a conditional probability, which can be calculated using any distribution. In addition to the interevent time and elapsed time on each fault, this technique requires values for the stress change on each fault (we use the average calculated stress change resolved on each fault surface), the transient decay [shown in Fig. 4A from data in (4)], and a stressing rate on each fault derived from the fault geometry and the observed strain rate (0.1 bar/year) (4). We performed 1000 Monte Carlo trials to establish error bounds (42). The four parameters for the Monte Carlo simulations are drawn at random from a normal distribution with a shape factor of 0.25 about each estimate, except for the interevent time for which the shape factor is 0.5. Alternating Monte Carlo trials were run with a Brownian passage time and lognormal distribution.
  • 38
    • 0039103916 scopus 로고
    • Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, U.S. Geol. Surv. Circ. 1053 (1990).
    • (1990) U.S. Geol. Surv. Circ. , pp. 1053
  • 43
    • 0342347585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • c) for faults a through c assumes independent sources of hazard, since we cannot include future interactions and, for all but the most recent earthquakes, we cannot include past interactions.
  • 48
    • 0343652790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • We thank N. Ambraseys, T. Wright, E. Fielding, A. Ito, J. Parke, and C. Finkel for sharing their insights and preliminary results with us, W. Bakun for his code and his review, and J. C. Savage, W. Thatcher, C. Sträub, and S. Kriesch for incisive reviews. Support from SwissRe is gratefully acknowledged.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.