Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga-Nuñez earthquakes: An application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Volumn 107, Issue 6, 2002, Pages

  Toda, Shinji ^a   Stein, Ross S ^b  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AIST   (Japan)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

Coalinga earthquake; Earthquake probability; Parkfield; Seismicity rate; Stress change

Indexed keywords

COULOMB CRITERION; EARTHQUAKE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; SAN ANDREAS FAULT; SEISMICITY; STRESS;

CALIFORNIA; COALINGA; PARKFIELD; SAN ANDREAS FAULT; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0037054698     PISSN: 21699313     EISSN: 21699356     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Bakun, W. H., Seismic activity of the San Francisco Bay region, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89, 764-784, 1999.
2. Bakun, W. H., and T. V. McEvilly, Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 sequences, Science, 205, 1375-1377, 1979.
3. Bakun, W. H., and T. V. McEvilly, Recurrence models and the Parkfield, California, earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 3051-3058, 1984.
4. Barka, A. A., Slip distribution along the North Anatolian fault associated with large earthquakes of the period 1939 to 1967, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86, 1238-1254, 1996.
5. Crouch, S. L., and A. M. Starfield, Boundary Element Methods in Solid Mechanics, 322 pp., Allen Unwin, Concord, Mass., 1983.
6. Dieterich, J., A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 2601-2618, 1994.
7. Dieterich, J. H., and B. Kilgore, Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 93, 3787-3794, 1996.
8. Eaton, J. P., The earthquake and its aftershocks from May 2 through September 30, 1983, in The Coalinga, California, Earthquake of May 2, 1983, edited by M. J. Rymer and W. L. Ellsworth, pp. 113-170, U.S. Geol. Surv., Washington, D. C., 1990.
9. Ekström, G., R. S. Stein, J. P. Eaton, and D. Eberhart-Phillips, Seismicity and geometry of a 110-km long blind thrust fault, 1, The 1985 Kettleman Hills, California, earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4843-4864, 1992.
10. Fletcher, J. B., and M. Guatteri, Stress drop for three M ~ 4.3-4.7 (1992-1994) Parkfield, CA, earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2295-2298, 1999.
11. Fletcher, J. B., and P. Spudich, Rupture characteristics of the three M ~ 4.7 (1992-1994) Parkfield earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 835-854, 1998.
12. Gwyther, R. L., M. T. Gladwin, M. Mee, and R. H. G. Hart, Anomalous shear strain at Parkfield during 1993-1994, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 2425-2428, 1996.
13. Habermann, R. E., Teleseismic detection in the Aleutian Island arc, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 5056-5064, 1983.
14. Harris, R. A., and R. W. Simpson, Suppresion of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,439-24,451, 1998.
15. Matthews, M. V., and P. A. Reasenberg, Statistical methods for investigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity patterns, Pure Appl. Geophys., 126, 357-372, 1988.
16. Matthews, M. V., W. L. Ellsworth, and P. A. Reasenberg, A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., in press, 2002.
17. Mavko, G. M., S. Schulz, and B. D. Brown, Effects of the 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake on creep along the San Andreas fault, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75, 475-489, 1985.
18. Michael, A. J., and L. M. Jones, Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 88, 117-130, 1998.
19. Miller, S.A., Fluid-mediated influence of adjacent thrusting on the seismic cycle at Parkfield, Nature, 382, 799-802, 1996.
20. Murray, J., P. Segall, P. Cervelli, W. Prescott, and J. Svarc, Inversion of GPS data for spatially variable slip-rate on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, CA, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 359-362, 2001.
21. Nadeau, R. M., and L. R. Johnson, Seismological studies at Parkfield, IV, Moment release and estimates of source parameters for small repeating earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 88, 790-814, 1998.
22. Parsons, T., R. S. Stein, R. W. Simpson, and P. A. Reasenberg, Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 20,183-20,202, 1999.
23. Parsons, T., S. Toda, R. S. Stein, A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich, Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation, Science, 288, 661-665, 2000.
24. Poley, C. M., A. G. Lindh, W. H. Bakun, and S. S. Schulz, Temporal changes in microseismicity and creep near Parkfield, California, Nature, 327, 134-137, 1987.
25. Reasenberg, P. A., and R. W. Simpson, Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake, Science, 255, 1687-1690, 1992.
26. Roeloffs, E. A., Creep rate changes at Parkfield, California 1966-1999: Seasonal, precipitation-induced and tectonic, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 16,525-16,547, 2001.
27. Roeloffs, E., and J. Langbein, The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California, Rev. Geophys., 32, 315-336, 1994.
28. Rubin, A. M., D. Gillard, and J.-L. Got, Streaks of microearthquakes along creeping faults, Nature, 400, 635-641, 1999.
29. Rymer, M. J., K. J. Kendrick, J. J. Lienkaemper, and M. M. Clark, Surface rupture on the Nuñez fault after June 11, 1983, in The Coalinga, California. Earthquake of May 2, 1983, edited by M. J. Rymer and W. L. Ellsworth, pp. 299-318, U.S. Geol. Surv., Washington, D. C., 1990.
30. Savage, J. C., The Parkfield prediction fallacy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 83, 1-6, 1993.
31. Schulz S. S., G. Mavko, and B. D. Brown, Response of creepmeters on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield to the earthquake, in The Coalinga, California. Earthquake if May 2, 1983, edited by M. J. Rymer and W. L. Ellsworth, pp. 409-417, U.S. Geol. Surv., Washington, D. C., 1990.
32. Segall, P., and Y. Du, How similar were the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield earthquakes?, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 4527-4538, 1993.
33. Simpson, R. W., S. S. Schulz, L. D. Dietz, and R. O. Burford, The response of creeping parts of the San Andreas fault to earthquakes on nearby faults: Two examples, Pure Appl. Geophys., 126, 665-684, 1988.
34. Stein, R. S., The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurence, Nature, 402, 605-609, 1999.
35. Stein, R. S., and G. E. Ekström, Seismicity and geometry of a 110-km long blind thrust fault, 2, Synthesis of the 1982-85 California earthquake sequence, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4865-4883, 1992.
36. Stein, R. S., A. A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich, Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594-604, 1997.
37. w = 6.5 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,543-24,565, 1998.
38. Waldhauser, F., and W. L. Ellsworth, A double-difference earthquake location algorithm: Method and application to the northern Hayward fault, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 1353-1368, 2000.
39. Waldhauser, F., W. L. Ellsworth., and A. Cole, Slip-parallel seismic lineations on the northern Hayward fault, California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3525-3528, 1999.
40. Wiemer, S., and M. Wyss, Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: An improved technique to calculate recurrence times?, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 15,115-15,128, 1997.
41. Wiemer, S., and M. Wyss, Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples form Alaska, the western United States, and Japan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 859-869, 2000.
42. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2000 to 2030-A summary of findings, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Rep., 99-517, 1999.
43. Wyss, M., and S. Wiemer, Change in the probability for earthquakes in southern California due to the Landers magnitude 7.3 earthquake, Science, 290, 1334-1338, 2000.
44. Wyss, M., P. Bodin, and R. E. Habermann, Seismic quiescence at Parkfield: An independent indication of an imminent earthquake, Nature, 345, 426-431, 1990.
45. Zuniga, R., and M. Wyss, Inadvertant changes in magnitude reported in earthquake catalogs: Their evaluation through b-value estimates, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86, 1858-1866, 1995.