A prospect dynamic model of decision-making

Journal of Theoretical Politics

Volumn 17, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 311-338

  Kanner, Michael D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

Decision making; Framing; Manipulation; Prospect theory; Risk attitude

Indexed keywords

EID: 22544448942     PISSN: 09516298     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0951629805052882     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Allison, Graham T. and Philip Zelikow (1999) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd edn. New York: Addison Wesley Longman.
2. Axelrod, Robert (1972) Framework for a General Theory of Cognition and Choice. Berkeley, CA: Institute of International Studies.
3. Bas̃ar, Tamer and Geert Jan Olsder (1995) Dynamic Noncooperative Game Theory, 2nd edn. New York: Academic Press.
4. Berkejikian, Jeffrey (1997) 'The Gains Debate: Framing State Choice', American Political Science Review 91: 789-806.
5. Boettcher, William A. III (2000) 'Framing Effects in the "Real World": Evaluating the Political Psychology Adaptation of Prospect Theory', paper presented to the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, 31 August-3 September.
6. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (1981) The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (2000) Principles of International Politics: People's Power, Preferences and Perceptions. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
8. Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio (1998) Politics and Uncertainty: Theory and Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
9. Heimer, Carol A. (1988) 'Social Structure, Psychology and the Estimation of Risk', American Review of Sociology 14: 491-519.
10. Jeffrey, Richard C. (1983) The Logic of Decision, 2nd edn. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
11. Jeffrey, Richard C. (1992) Probability and the Art of Judgement. New York: Cambridge University Press.
12. Jervis, Robert (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
13. Jervis, Robert (1997) System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
14. Kahneman, Daniel and Amos Tversky (1979) 'Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk', Econometrica 47: 263-91.
15. Kahneman, Daniel, Jack L. Knetsch and Richard H. Thaler (2000) 'Anomalies: Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias', reprinted in Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (eds) Choices, Values, and Frames. New York: Cambridge University Press.
16. Kanner, Michael D. (2001) 'Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: A Theory of Framing and its Effect on Risk Attitudes', PhD Dissertation, University of Colorado, Boulder.
17. Kanner, Michael D. (2002) 'Framing the Free Rider', paper presented to the 98th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. Boston, MA, 29 August-1 September.
18. Kanner, Michael D. (2004) 'Framing and the Role of the Second Actor: An Application of Prospect Theory to Bargaining', Political Psychology 25: 213-40.
19. Khong, Yuen Foong (1992) Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decision of 1965. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
20. Kühberger, Anton (1995) 'The Framing of Decisions: A New Look at Old Problems', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 62: 230-40.
21. Levy, Jack (1997) 'Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations', International Studies Quarterly 41: 87-112.
22. Levy, Jack (2003) 'Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science', Synthese. 135: 215-41.
23. Luce, R. Duncan and Howard Raiffa (1957) Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
24. Maoz, Zeev (1990) 'Framing the National Interest: The Manipulation of Foreign Policy Decisions Group Settings', World Politics 43: 77-110.
25. March, James G. (1988) 'Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice', in James G. March (ed.) Decisions and Organizations. New York: Basil Blackwell.
26. March, James G. (1994) A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen. New York: The Free Press.
27. March, James G. (1997) 'Understanding How Decisions Happen in Organizations', in Zur Shapira (ed.) Organizational Decision Making. New York: Cambridge University Press.
28. McDermott, Rose (2004) 'Prospect Theory in Political Science: Gains and Losses from the First Decade', Political Psychology 25: 289-312.
29. Miller, G.A. (1956) 'The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information', Psychological Review 63: 81-97.
30. Mintz, Alex and Steven B. Redd (2003) 'Framing Effects in International Relations', Synthese 135:193-213.
31. Morrow, James D. (1989) 'Bargaining in Repeated Crises: A Limited Information Model', in Peter C. Ordeshook (ed.) Models of Strategic Choice in Politics. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
32. Morrow, James D. (1994) Games Theory for Political Scientists. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
33. Morton, Rebecca B. (1999) Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science. New York: Cambridge University Press.
34. National Defense University (1993) The Joint Staff Officer's Guide. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
35. Neustadt, Richard E. and Ernest R. May (1986) Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-makers. New York: The Free Press.
36. Nicholson, Michael (1989) Formal Theories of International Relations. New York: Cambridge University Press.
37. Nicholson, Michael (1992) Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press.
38. Ostrom, Elinor (1998) 'A Behavioral Approach to the Rational Choice Theory of Collective Action: Presidential Address, American Political Science Association, 1997', American Political Science Review 92: 1-22.
39. Payne, John W. (1997) 'The Scarecrow's Search: A Cognitive Psychologist's Perspective on Organizational Decision Making', in Zur Shapira (ed.) Organizational Decision Making. New York: University of Cambridge Press.
40. Pearl, Judea (2000) Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. New York: Cambridge University Press.
41. Schneider, Sandra L. and Monica D. Barnes (2003) 'What do People Really Want? Goals and Context in Decision Making', in Sandra L. Schneider and James Shanteau (eds) Emerging Perspectives on Judgement and Decision Research. New York: Cambridge University Press.
42. Shafir, Eldar (1999) 'Belief and Decision: The Continuing Legacy of Amos Tversky', Cognitive Psychology 38: 315.
43. Shannon, Vaughn P. (2000) 'Norms Are What States Make of Them: The Political Psychology of Norm Violation', International Studies Quarterly 44: 293-316.
44. Shubik, Martin (1982) Game Theory in the Social Sciences: Concepts and Solutions. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
45. Simon, Herbert (1955) 'A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice', Quarterly Journal of Economics 69:99-118.
46. Simon, Herbert (1985) 'Human Nature in Politics: The Dialogue of Psychology with Political Science', American Political Science Review 79: 293-304.
47. Stein, Janice Gross (1993) 'International Cooperation and Loss Avoidance: Framing the Problem', in Janice Gross Stein and Louis W. Pauly (eds) Choosing to Cooperate: How States Avoid Loss. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
48. Sylvan, Donald A. (1998) 'Introduction', in Problem Representation in Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: Cambridge University Press.
49. Taber, Charles S. (1998) 'The Interpretation of Foreign Policy Events: A Cognitive Process Theory', in Problem Representation in Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: Cambridge University Press.
50. Tversky, Amos (1972) 'Elimination by Aspects: A Theory of Choice', Psychological Review 79: 281-99.
51. Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman (1981) The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice', Science 211: 453-8.
52. Vertzberger, Yaacov Y.I. (1990) The World in Their Minds: Information Processing, Cognition, and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
53. Vertzberger, Yaacov Y.I. (1998) Risk Taking and Decisionmaking: Foreign Military Intervention Decisions. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
54. Voss, James F. (1998) 'On the Representation of Problems: An Information Processing Approach to Foreign Policy Decision Making', in Donald A. Sylvan and James F. Voss (eds) Problem Representation in Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: Cambridge University Press.
55. Walzer, Michael (1977) Just and Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument with Historical Illustrations. New York: Basic Books.
56. Weyland, Kurt (2000) 'A Paradox of Success? Determinant of Political Support for President Fujimori', International Studies Quarterly. 44: 481-502.
57. Whyte, Glen and Ariel S. Levi (1994) 'The Origins and Function of the Reference Point in Risky Group Decision Making: The Case of the Cuban Missile Crisis', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 7: 243-60.
58. Winkler, Robert L. (1972) An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
59. Zagare, Frank C. (1984) Game Theory: Concepts and Applications (Sage University Paper No. 41, Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, ed. Michael S. Lewis-Beck). New York: Sage.