Intuitive Evaluation of Likelihood Judgment Producers: Evidence for a Confidence Heuristic

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Volumn 17, Issue 1, 2004, Pages 39-57

  Price, Paul C ^a   Stone, Eric R ^b  

^a CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Advisors; Calibration; Confidence judgments; Individual differences

Indexed keywords

EID: 1642436823     PISSN: 08943257     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.460     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Altmeier, B. (1991). Right-wing authoritarianism. Winnipeg: University of Winnipeg Press.
2. Arkes, H. R., Christensen, C., Lai, C., & Blumer, C. (1987). Two methods of reducing overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 133-144.
3. Ayton, P. (1992). On the competence and incompetence of experts. In G. Wright, & F. Bolger (Eds.), Expertise and decision support (pp. 77-105). New York: Plenum Press.
4. Brehmer, B. (1988). The development of social judgment theory. In B. Brehmer, & C. R. B. Joyce (Eds.), Human judgment: The SJT view (pp. 13-40). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
5. Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: a critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 212-219.
6. Cacioppo, J. T., Petty, R. E., Feinstein, J. A., Jarvis, W., & Blair, G. (1996). Dispositional differences in cognitive motivation: the life and times of individuals varying in need for cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 119, 197-253.
7. Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the valid use of psychodiagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271-280.
8. Cooper, W. H. (1981). Ubiquitous halo. Psychological Bulletin, 90, 218-244.
9. Dougherty, M. R. P., Gettys, C. F., & Ogden, E. E. (1999). MINERVA-DM: a memory processes model for judgments of likelihood. Psychological Review, 106, 180-209.
10. Einhorn, H. J. (1982). Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 268-283). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
11. Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: the role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519-527.
12. Fischhoff, B. (1982). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422-444). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
13. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
14. Harvey, N., Harries, C., & Fischer, I. (2000). Using advice and assessing its quality. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 81, 252-273.
15. Juslin, P. (1994). The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 226-246.
16. Juslin, P., Olsson, H., & Björkman, M. (1997). Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: on the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 189-209.
17. Katz, J. (1984). Why doctors don't disclose uncertainty. The Hastings Center Report, 14, 35-44.
18. Keren, G. (1997). On the calibration of probability judgments: some critical comments and alternative perspectives. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 269-278.
19. Klayman, J. (1988). On the how and why (not) of learning from outcomes. In B. Brehmer, & C. R. B. Joyce (Eds.), Human judgment: The SJT view (pp. 115-162). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
20. Kruglanski, A. W. (1989). Lay epistemics and human knowledge: Cognitive and motivational bases. New York: Plenum.
21. Kruglanski, A. W., Webster, D. M., & Klem, A. (1993). Motivated resistance and openness to persuasion in the presence or absence of prior information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 861-876.
22. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (pp. 306-334). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
23. McClelland, A. G. R., & Bolger, F. (1994). The calibration of subjective probabilities: theories and models 1980-1994. In G. Wright, & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 453-482). Chichester: Wiley.
24. Murphy, A. H., & Brown, B. G. (1984). A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States. Journal of Forecasting, 3, 369-393.
25. Ronis, D. L., & Yates, J. F. (1987). Components of probability judgment accuracy: individual consistency and effects of Participant matter and assessment method. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 40, 193-218.
26. Shanteau, J. (1988). Psychological characteristics and strategies of expert decision makers. Acta Psychologica, 68, 203-215.
27. Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6, 649-744.
28. Sniezek, J. A., & Buckley, T. (1995). Cueing and cognitive conflict in judge-advisor decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62, 159-174.
29. Sniezek, J. A., & Van Swol, L. M. (2001). Trust, confidence, and expertise in a judge-advisor system. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 84, 288-307.
30. Soll, P. J. (1996). Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: the roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 117-137.
31. Stone, E. R., & Opel, R. B. (2000). Training to improve calibration and discrimination: the effects of performance and environmental feedback. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 83, 282-309.
32. Wells, G. L., & Murray, D. M. (1984). Eyewitness confidence. In G. L. Wells, & E. F. Loftus (Eds.), Eyewitness testimony: Psychological perspectives (pp. 155-170). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
33. Whitley, B. E., & Greenberg, M. S. (1986). The role of eyewitness confidence in juror perceptions of credibility. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 16, 387-409.
34. Wright, G., & Ayton, P. (Eds.). (1994). Subjective Probability. Chichester: Wiley.
35. Wright, G., & Phillips, L. D. (1979). Personality and probabilistic thinking: an experimental study. British Journal of Psychology, 70, 295-303.
36. Yaniv, I., & Foster, D. P. (1995). Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: an accuracy-informativeness tradeoff. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 124, 424-432.
37. Yates, J. F. (1982). External correspondence: decompositions of the mean probability score. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 30, 132-156.
38. Yates, J. F. (1990). Judgment and decision making. New York: Prentice-Hall.
39. Yates, J. F. (1994). Subjective probability accuracy analysis. In G. Wright, & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective Probability (pp. 381-410). Chichester, England: Wiley.
40. Yates, J. F., Price, P. C., Lee, J.-W., & Ramirez, J. (1996). Good probabilistic forecasters: the 'consumer's' perspective. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 41-56.
41. Zarnoth, P., & Sniezek, J. A. (1996). The social influence of confidence in group decision making. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 33, 345-366.