Ecological time-series analysis through structural modelling with latent constructs: Concepts, methods and applications

Comptes Rendus - Biologies

Volumn 328, Issue 4, 2005, Pages 301-316

  Almaraz, Pablo ^a  

^a DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION BIOLOGY   (Spain)

Author keywords

Ardea purpurea; Causality; Climate variability; Density dependence; Latent variable; Sampling error; SEM

Indexed keywords

BOOTSTRAPPING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

ACCURACY; ANALYTICAL ERROR; ARTICLE; BIRD; CLIMATE; CONTROLLED STUDY; CORRELATION ANALYSIS; COVARIANCE; ECOLOGY; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; NONPARAMETRIC TEST; PARAMETRIC TEST; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; POPULATION REGULATION; POPULATION SIZE; STOCHASTIC MODEL; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

ECOLOGY; MODELS, THEORETICAL;

ARDEA PURPUREA;

EID: 16244365882     PISSN: 16310691     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.crvi.2004.12.005     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. S.E. Kingsland Modelling Nature. Episodes in the History of Population Ecology second ed. 1995 University of Chicago Press Chicago
2. C.J. Krebs Two complementary paradigms for analysing population dynamics Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., Ser. B 357 2002 1211-1219
3. N.C. Stenseth Population cycles in voles and lemmings: Density dependence and phase dependence in a stochastic world Oikos 87 1999 427-461
4. T. Coulson E.A. Catchpole S.D. Albon B.J.T. Morgan J.M. Pemberton T.H. Clutton-Brock M.J. Crawley B.T. Grenfell Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep Science 295 2001 1528-1531
5. B.-E. Sæther S. Engen E. Matthysen Demographic characteristic and population dynamical patterns of solitary birds Science 295 2002 2070-2073
6. N.C. Stenseth H. Viljugrein T. Saitoh T.F. Hansen M.O. Kittilsen E. Bølviken F. Glöckner Seasonality, density dependence, and population cycles in Hokkaido voles Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100 2003 11478-11483
7. O.N. Bjørnstad B.T. Grenfell Noisy clockwork: Time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals Science 293 2001 638-643
8. T. Royama Analytical Population Dynamics 1992 Chapman and Hall London
9. P. Turchin Complex Population Dynamics 2003 Princeton University Press Princeton
10. P. Rothery I. Newton L. Dale T. Wesolowski Testing for density-dependence allowing for weather effects Oecologia 112 1997 518-523
11. N.C. Stenseth A. Mysterud G. Ottersen J.W. Hurrell K.-S. Chan M. Lima Ecological effects of climate fluctuations Science 297 2002 1292-1296
12. B.-E. Sæther S. Engen A.P. Møller E. Matthysen F. Adriaensen W. Fiedler A. Leivits M.M. Lambrechts M.E. Visser T. Anker-Nilssen C. Both A.A. Dhondt R.H. McCleery J. McMeeking J. Potti O.W. Røstad D. Thomson Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerine Proc. R. Soc. Lond., Ser. B 270 2003 2397-2404
13. N.C. Stenseth G. Ottersen J.W. Hurrell A. Mysterud M. Lima K.-S. Chan N.G. Yoccoz B. Ådlandsvik Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and beyond Proc. R. Soc. Lond., Ser. B 270 2003 2087-2096
14. M.C. Forchhammer N.C. Stenseth E. Post R. Langvatn Population dynamics of Norwegian Red Deer: Density-dependence and climatic variation Proc. R. Soc. Lond., Ser. B 265 1998 341-350
15. B. Dennis M.R.M. Otten Joint effects of density-dependence and rainfall on abundance of San Joaquin Kit fox J. Wildl. Manage. 64 2000 388-400
16. H. Tong Non-Linear Time Series second ed. 1993 Oxford University Press Oxford
17. P.A.P. Moran Statistical analysis of the Canadian lynx cycle. 2. Synchronization and meteorology Aust. J. Zool. 1 1953 174-184
18. D.W. Williams A.M. Liebhold Detection of delayed density-dependence: effects of autocorrelation in an exogenous factor Ecology 76 1995 1005-1008
19. T.M. Shenk G.C. White K. Burnham Sampling-variance effects on detecting density-dependence from temporal trends in natural populations Ecol. Monogr. 68 1998 445-463
20. R. Lande S. Engen B.-E. Sæther Stochastic Population Dynamics in Ecology and Conservation 2003 Oxford University Press Oxford, UK
21. M.H. Graham Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression Ecology 84 2003 2809-2815
22. P. de Valpine A. Hastings Fitting population models incorporating process noise and observation error Ecol. Monogr. 72 2002 57-76
23. S.T. Lindley Estimation of population growth and extinction parameters from noisy data Ecol. Appl. 13 2003 806-813
24. R.A. Myers N.G. Cadigan Density-dependent juvenile mortality in marine demersal fish Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50 1993 1576-1590
25. R.A. Myers N.G. Cadigan Is juvenile mortality in marine demersal fish variable? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50 1993 1591-1598
26. J.-M. Fromentin R.A. Myers O.N. Bjørnstad N.C. Stenseth J. Gjøsæter H. Christie Effects of density-dependent and stochastic processes on the regulation of cod populations Ecology 82 2001 567-579
27. P. Almaraz J.A. Amat Complex structural effects of two hemispheric climatic oscillators on the regional spatio-temporal expansion of a threatened bird Ecol. Lett. 7 2004 547-556
28. P. Almaraz J.A. Amat Multi-annual spatial and numeric dynamics of the white-headed duck (Oxyura leucocephala) in southern Europe: Seasonality, density dependence and climatic variability J. Anim. Ecol. 73 2004 1013-1023
29. S. Wright The relative importance of heredity and environment in determining the piebald pattern of Guinea pigs Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 6 1920 180-187
30. S. Wright Correlation and causation J. Agric. Res. 10 1921 557-585
31. K.A. Bollen Structural Equations with Latent Variables 1989 John Wiley and Sons New York
32. J. Pearl Graphs, causality, and structural equation models Sociol. Methods Res. 27 1998 226-284
33. B. Shipley Cause and Correlation in Biology 2000 Cambridge University Press Cambridge
34. J.G. Kingsolver D.W. Schemske Path analyses of selection Trends Ecol. Evol. 6 1991 276-280
35. R.J. Mitchell Testing evolutionary and ecological hypotheses using path analysis and structural equation modelling Funct. Ecol. 6 1992 123-129
36. S.M. Scheiner R.J. Mitchell H.S. Callahan Using path analysis to measure natural selection J. Evol. Biol. 13 2000 423-433
37. T. Haavelmo The statistical implications of a system of simultaneous equations Econometrica 11 1943 1-12
38. P. Spirtes C. Glymour R. Scheines Causation, Prediction, and Search 1993 Springer-Verlag New York
39. P. Spirtes T. Richardson C. Meek R. Scheines C. Glymour Using path diagrams as a structural equation modelling tool Sociol. Methods Res. 27 1998 182-225
40. J.T. Wootton The nature and consequences of indirect effects in ecological communities Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 25 1994 443-466
41. F.A. Smith J.H. Brown T.J. Valone Path analysis: A critical evaluation using long-term experimental data Am. Nat. 149 1997 29-42
42. S.L. Kohler W.K. Hoiland Population regulation in an aquatic insect: The role of disease Ecology 82 2001 2294-2305
43. P. Congdon Applied Bayesian Modelling 2003 John Wiley and Sons Sussex
44. G.D. Maddox J. Antonovics Experimental ecological genetics in Plantago: a structural equation approach to fitness components in P. aristata and P. patagonica Ecology 64 1983 1092-1099
45. J.B. Grace B.H. Pugesek On the use of path analysis and related procedures for the investigation of ecological problems Am. Nat. 152 1998 151-159
46. E. Eells Probabilistic Causality 1991 Cambridge University Press Cambridge
47. R.H. Peters A Critique for Ecology 1991 Cambridge University Press Cambridge
48. X. Rodó M. Pascual G. Fuchs A.S.G. Faruque ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change? Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99 2003 12901-12906
49. K.R. Popper The propensity interpretation of probability Br. J. Phil. Sci. 10 1959 25-42
50. L.S. Chow Statistical Significance: Rationale, Validity and Utility 1996 Sage London
51. B. Shipley Exploratory path analysis with applications in ecology and evolution Am. Nat. 149 1997 1113-1138
52. J.J. Hoogland A. Boomsma Robustness studies in covariance structure modelling. An overview and a meta-analysis Sociol. Methods Res. 26 1998 239-367
53. K.A. Bollen R.A. Stine Bootstrapping goodness-of-fit measures in structural equation models in: K.A. Bollen J.S. Long (Eds.) Testing Structural Equation Models, Newbury Park 1993 Sage 111-134
54. Y.-F. Yung P.M. Bentler Bootstrap-corrected ADF test statistics in covariance structure analysis Brit. J. Math. Stat. Psychol. 47 1994 63-84
55. H. Akaike Factor analysis and AIC Psychometrika 52 1987 317-332
56. M.W. Browne Covariance structures in: D.M. Hawkins (Ed.) Topics in Applied Multivariate Analysis 1982 Cambridge University Press Cambridge 72-141
57. R. Cudeck Analysis of correlation matrices using covariance structure models Psychol. Bull. 105 1989 317-327
58. J.D. den Held Population changes of the Purple Heron in relation to drought in the wintering area Ardea 69 1981 185-191
59. J. Cavé Purple Heron survival and drought in tropical West Africa Ardea 71 1983 217-224
60. C. Barbraud H. Hafner Variation des effectifs nicheurs de hérons pourprés Ardea purpurea sur le littoral méditerranéen français en relation avec la pluviométrie sur les quartiers d'hivernage Alauda 69 2001 373-380
61. B.K. Williams J.D. Nichols M.J. Conroy Analysis and Management of Animal Populations 2001 Academic Press San Diego
62. B. Efron R.J. Tibshirani Bootstrap methods for standard errors, confidence intervals, and other measures of statistical accuracy Stat. Sci. 1 1986 54-77
63. J.H. Steiger Structural equation modelling in: StatSoft, Inc. (Ed.) STATISTICA 5.0 1995 StatSoft Tulsa 3539-3687
64. StatSoft, Inc., STATISTICA (data analysis software system), version 6.1, 2003
65. T.M. Powell J.H. Steele (Eds.) Ecological Time Series 1995 Chapman and Hall New York
66. B.-E. Sæther J. Tufto S. Engen K. Jerstad O.W. Røstad J.E. Skåtan Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird Science 287 2000 854-856
67. J.A. Ramos A.M. Maul V. Ayrton I. Bullock J. Hunter J. Bowler G. Castle R. Mileto C. Pacheco Influence of local and large-scale weather events and timing of breeding on tropical roseate tern reproductive parameters Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 243 2002 271-279
68. I. Lakatos The Methodology of Scientific Research Programs 1978 Cambridge University Press Cambridge
69. R. Hilborn M. Mangel The Ecological Detective 1997 Princeton University Press Princeton
70. A. Mysterud N.C. Stenseth N.G. Yoccoz R. Langvatn G. Steinheim Non-linear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores Nature 410 2001 1096-1099
71. C. Chatfield The Analysis of Time Series 1996 Chapman and Hall London