Estimation of population growth and extinction parameters from noisy data

Ecological Applications

Volumn 13, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 806-813

  Lindley, Steven T ^a  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

California population; Diffusion approximation; Extinction model; grizzly bear, Yellowstone population; Kalman filter; Measurement errors bias parameter estimates; Parameter estimation; Random walk; Sea otter; State space model

Indexed keywords

EXTINCTION; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; RANDOM WALK METHOD; SPECIES CONSERVATION;

CALIFORNIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES; YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK;

CARNIVORA; ENHYDRA LUTRIS; LUTRINAE; URSUS ARCTOS;

EID: 0346991699     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0806:EOPGAE]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Brown, R. L., J. Durbin, AND J. M. Evans. 1975. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (statistical methods) 37:149-192.
2. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 1998. Model selection and inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
3. Dennis, B., P. L. Munholland, and J. M. Scott. 1991. Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species. Ecological Monographs 61:115-143.
4. de Valpine, P., and A. Hastings. 2002. Fitting population models incorporating process noise and observation error. Ecological Monographs 72:57-76.
5. Doucet, A., N. de Freitas, and N. Gordon, editors. 2001. Sequential Monte Carlo methods in practice. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
6. Durbin, J., and S. J. Koopman. 2001. Time series analysis by state space methods. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
7. Estes, J. A. 1990. Growth and equilibrium in sea otter populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 59:385-401.
8. Estes, J. A., and R. J. Jameson. 1988. A double-survey estimate for sighting probability of sea otters in California. Journal of Wildlife Management 52:70-76.
9. Foley, P. 1994. Predicting extinction times from environmental stochasticity and carrying capacity. Conservation Biology 8:124-137.
10. Gilks, W. R., S. Richardson, and D. J. Spiegelhalter. 1996. Introducing Markov chain Monte Carlo. Pages 1-19 in W. R. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. J. Spiegelhalter, editors. Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice. Chapman & Hall, London, UK.
11. Haroldson, M. A. 2000. Unduplicated females. Pages 9-13 in C. C. Schwarz and M. A. Haroldson, editors. Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 1999. U. S. Geological Survey, Bozeman, Montana, USA.
12. Harvey, A. C. 1989. Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
13. Hastings, W. K. 1970. Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 57:97-109.
14. Hilborn, R., and M. Mangel. 1997. The ecological detective. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
15. Holmes, E. E. 2001. Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 98:5072-5077.
16. Kitagawa, G. 1981. A nonstationary time series model and its fitting by a recursive filter. Journal of Time Series Analysis 2:103-116.
17. Knight, R. R., B. M. Blanchard, and L. L. Eberhardt. 1995. Appraising status of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population by counting females with cubs-of-the-year. Wildlife Society Bulletin 23:245-248.
18. Knight, R. R., and L. L. Eberhardt. 1985. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears. Ecology 66:323-334.
19. Ludwig, D. 1996. Uncertainty and the assessment of extinction probabilities. Ecological Applications 6:1067-1076.
20. Ludwig, D. 1999. Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction? Ecology 80:298-310.
21. Meir, E., and W. F. Fagan. 2000. Will observation error and biases ruin the use of simple extinction models? Conservation Biology 14:148-154.
22. Metropolis, N., A. W. Rosenbluth, M. N. Rosenbluth, A. H. Teller, and E. Teller. 1953. Equations of state calculations by fast computing machine. Journal of Chemical Physics 21:1087-1091.
23. Nelder, J. A., and R. Mead. 1965. A simplex method for function minimization. Computer Journal 7:308-313.
24. Pease, C. M., and D. J. Mattson. 1999. Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears. Ecology 80:957-975.
25. Rein, S. R. 1993. A model of chinook population dynamics. Dissertation. University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.