Evaluation of the climate outlook forums' seasonal precipitation forecasts of southeast South America during 1998-2002

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 25, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 365-377

  Berri, Guillermo J ^a   Antico, Pablo L ^a   Goddard, Lisa ^b  

^a UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES   (Argentina)

^b Earth Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate variability; Seasonal precipitation forecast; South America; Validation

Indexed keywords

EXPERT SYSTEMS; GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PROBABILITY; RANDOM PROCESSES; STATISTICAL METHODS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS (COF); HIT SCORE (HS); PROBABILISTIC TERCILE DISTRIBUTION; RANKED PROBABILITY SKILL SCORE (RPSS);

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; LONG RANGE FORECAST; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); WEATHER FORECASTING;

SOUTH AMERICA; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; WORLD;

EID: 15744366378     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1129     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Berri GJ. 1996. Practical applications of statistical modeling of seasonal to interannual climate variability to environmental problems in South America. Anais de Academia Brasileira de Ciencias 68: 223-238.
2. Berri GJ (ed.). 1997. El Niño impact on water resources in Central and South America, and new methodologies of practical use to seasonal and interannual hydrologic forecasts. IRIP-CR-SF96/1 (available at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Palisades NY, USA).
3. Berri GJ, Flamenco E. 1999. Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Niño observations and predictions. Water Resources Research 35: 3803-3810.
4. Berri GJ, Flamenco EA, Spescha L, Tanco RA, Hurtado R. 2002. Some effects of La Niña on summer rainfall, water resources and crops in Argentina. In La Niña and its Societal Impacts: Facts and Speculation, Glantz MH (ed.). United Nations University Press: 2002.
5. Goddard L, Mason SJ, Zebiak SE, Ropelewski CF, Basher R, Cane MA. 2001. Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1111-1152.
6. Goddard L, Barnston AG, Mason SJ. 2003. Evaluation of the IRI's 'Net Assessment' seasonal climate forecasts 1997-2001. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1761-1781.
7. Grimm AM, Feraz SET, Gomes J. 1998. Precipitation anomalies in southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events. Journal of Climate 11: 2863-2880.
8. Janowiak JE, Xie P. 1999. CAMS-OPI: a global satellite-rain gauge merged product for real-time precipitation monitoring applications. Journal of Climate 12: 3335-3342.
9. Lall U, Sharma A. 1996. A nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series. Water Resources Research 32: 679-693.
10. Marengo JA, Cavalcanti IFA, Satyamurty P, Trosnikov I, Nobre CA, Bonatti JP, Camargo H, Sampaio G, Sanchez MB, Manzi AO, Castro CAC, Candido L, D'Almeida C, Pezzi LP. 2003. Assessment of regional seasonal rainfall predictability using the CPTEC/COLA atmospheric GCM. Climate Dynamics 21: 459-475.
11. Mason SJ, Goddard L. 2001. Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 619-638.
12. Mason SJ, Goddard L, Graham NE, Yulaeva E, Sun L, Arkin PA. 1999. The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 1853-1873.
13. Montecinos A, Diaz A, Aceituno P. 2000. Seasonal diagnostic and predictability of rainfall in subtropical South America based on tropical Pacific SST. Journal of Climate 13: 746-758.
14. New M, Hulme M, Jones P. 1999. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate 12: 829-856..
15. New M, Hulme M, Jones P. 2000. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. Journal of Climate 13: 2217-2238.
16. Pisciottano G, Diaz A, Cazes G, Mechoso C. 1994. El-Niño southern oscillation impact on rainfall in Uruguay. Journal of Climate 7 1286-1302.
17. Repelli CA, Nobre P. 2004. Statistical prediction of sea-surface temperature over the tropical Atlantic. International Journal of Climatology 24: 45-55.
18. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS. 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/southern oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115: 1606-1626.
19. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS. 1989. Precipitation patterns associated with high index phase of southern oscillation. Journal of Climate 2 268-284.
20. Wilks DS. 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press.
21. Xie P, Arkin PA. 1997. A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 2539-2558.