Extinction risk in periodically fluctuating environments

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 167, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 221-231

  Wichmann, Matthias C ^a,c   Johst, Karin ^a   Moloney, Kirk A ^b   Wissel, Christian ^a   Jeltsch, Florian ^c  

^a HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

^b IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF POTSDAM   (Germany)

Author keywords

Disturbance; Environmental noise; Extinction risk; Noise color; Periodically fluctuating environments; Population dynamics

Indexed keywords

DISTURBANCE; EXTINCTION RISK; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION MODELING; STOCHASTICITY;

EID: 0348077481     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00136-4     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Bellows, T.S., 1981. The descriptive properties of some models for density dependence. J. Anim. Ecol. 50, 139-156.
2. Bjornstad, O.N., 2001. Trading space for time in population dynamics. Trends Ecol. Evol. 16, 124.
3. Caswell, H., 2001. Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation, 2nd ed. Sinauer Associates Inc., Sunderland, MA, 722 pp.
4. Caughley, G., 1976. The elephant problem: an alternative hypothesis. East Afr. Wildl. J. 14, 265-283.
5. Chatfield, C., 1984. The Analysis of Time Series, 3rd ed. Chapman & Hall, London, New York, 286 pp.
6. Cuddington, K.M., Yodzis, P., 1999. Black noise and population persistence. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B: Biol. Sci. 266, 969-973.
7. DeAngelis, D.L., Gross, L.J., 1992. Individual-Based Models and Approaches in Ecology: Populations, Communities and Ecosystems. Chapman & Hall, London, New York, 525 pp.
8. Debeljak, M., Dzeroski, S., Adamic, M., 1999. Interactions among the red deer (Cervus elaphus, L.) population meteorological parameters and new growth of the natural regenerated forest in Sneznik, Slovenia. Ecol. Model. 121, 51-61.
9. Fahse, L., Wissel, C., Grimm, V., 1998. Reconciling classical and individual-based approaches in theoretical population ecology: a protocol for extracting population parameters from individual-based models. Am. Nat. 152, 838-852.
10. Foley, P., 1994. Predicting extinction times from environmental stochasticity and carrying capacity. Conserv. Biol. 8, 124-137.
11. Grenfell, B.T., Bjornstad, O.N., Kappey, J., 2001. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414, 716-723.
12. Grimm, V., 1999. Ten years of individual-based modelling in ecology: what have we learned and what could we learn in the future? Ecol. Model. 115, 129-148.
13. Halley, J.M., Kunin, V.E., 1999. Extinction risk and the 1/f family of noise models. Theor. Popul. Biol. 56, 215-230.
14. Heino, M., 1998. Noise colour, synchrony and extinctions in spatially structured populations. Oikos 83, 368-375.
15. Huisman, J., 1999. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton: microcosm experiments. Ecology 80, 202-210.
16. Hunt, W.G., 1998. Raptor floaters at Moffat's equilibrium. Oikos 82, 191-197.
17. Jeltsch, F., Milton, S.J., Dean, W.R.J., van Rooyen, N., 1997. Simulated pattern formation around artificial waterholes in the semi-arid Kalahari. J. Veg. Sci. 8, 177-188.
18. Johst, K., Wissel, C., 1997. Extinction risk in a temporally correlated fluctuating environment. Theor. Popul. Biol. 52, 91-100.
19. Kaitala, V., Ylikarjula, J., Ranta, E., Lundberg, P., 1997a. Population dynamics and the color of environmental noise. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B: Biol. Sci. 264, 943-948.
20. Kaitala, V., Lundberg, P., Ripa, J., Ylikarjula, J., 1997b. Red, blue and green: dyeing population dynamics. Ann. Zool. Fenn. 34, 217-228.
21. Kot, M., Schaffer, W.M., 1984. The effects of seasonality on discrete models of population growth. Theor. Popul. Biol. 26, 340-360.
22. Laakso, J., Kaitala, V., Ranta, E., 2001. How does environmental variation translate into biological process? Oikos 92, 119-122.
23. Lacy, R.C., 1993. Vortex: a computer simulation model for population viability analysis. Wildl. Res. 20, 45-65.
24. Lande, R., 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. Am. Nat. 142, 911-927.
25. Letcher, B.H., Priddy, J.A., Walters, J.R., Crowder, L.B., 1998. Spatially-explicit simulation model of the population dynamics of the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker Picoides borealis. Biol. Conserv. 86, 1-14.
26. Li, J., 1992. Periodic solutions of population models in a periodically fluctuating environment. Math. Biosci. 110, 17-25.
27. Lundberg, P., Ranta, E., Ripa, J., Kaitala, V., 2000. Population variability in space and time. Trends Ecol. Evol. 15, 460-464.
28. May, R.M., Oster, G.F., 1976. Bifurcations and dynamic complexity in simple ecological models. Am. Nat. 110, 573-599.
29. Moss, R., Oswald, J., Baines, D., 2001. Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland. J. Anim. Ecol. 70, 47-61.
30. Nott, M.P., Desante, D.F., Siegel, R.B., Pyle, P., 2002. Influences of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America. Global Ecol. Biogeography 11, 333-342.
31. Petchey, O.L., 2000. Environmental colour affects aspects of single-species population dynamics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B: Biol. Sci. 267, 747-754.
32. Petchey, O.L., Gonzales, A., Wilson, H.B., 1997. Effects on population persistence: the interaction between noise colour, intraspecific competition and space. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B: Biol. Sci. 264, 1841-1847.
33. Pimm, S.L., Redfearn, A., 1988. The variability of population densities. Nature 334, 613-614.
34. Post, E., Peterson, R.O., Stenseth, N.C., McLaren, B.E., 1999. Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate. Nature 401, 905-907.
35. Ripa, J., Heino, M., 1999. Linear analysis solves two puzzles in population dynamics: the route to extinction and extinction in coloured environments. Ecol. Lett. 2, 219-222.
36. Ripa, J., Lundberg, P., 1996. Noise colour and the risk of population extinction. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B: Biol. Sci. 263, 1751-1753.
37. Ripa, J., Lundberg, P., 2000. The route to extinction in variable environments. Oikos 90, 89-96.
38. Steele, J.H., 1985. A comparison of terrestrial and marine ecological systems. Nature 313, 355-358.
39. Stelter, C., Reich, M., Grimm, V., Wissel, C., 1997. Modelling persistence in dynamic landscapes: lessons from a metapopulation of the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata. J. Anim. Ecol. 66, 508-518.
40. Tyson, P.D., 1987. Climatic Change and Variability in Southern Africa. Oxford University Press, Cape Town, 220 pp.
41. Uchmanski, J., Grimm, V., 1996. Individual-based modelling in ecology: what makes the difference? Trends Ecol. Evol. 11, 437-441.
42. White, P.S., Jentsch, A., 2001. The search for generality in studies of disturbance and ecosystem dynamics. In: Kesser, E., Lüttge, U., Kadereit, J.W., Beyschlag, W. (Eds.), Progress in Botany. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 399-450.
43. White, A., Bowers, R.G., Begon, M., 1996. Red/blue chaotic power spectra. Nature 381, 198.
44. Wichmann, M., Jeltsch, F., Dean, W.R.J., Moloney, K.A., Wissel, C., in press. Implications of climate change on raptors in arid savanna. Oikos 102, 186-202.
45. Wiegand, T., Naves, J., Stephan, T., Fernandez, A., 1998. Assessing the risk of extinction for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) in the Cordillera Cantabrica, Spain. Ecol. Monogr. 68, 539-570.
46. Wissel, C., Stephan, T., Zaschke, S.-H., 1994. Modelling extinction and survival of small populations. In: Remmert, H. (Ed.), Minimum Animal Populations. Ecological Studies, vol. 106. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 67-103.
47. Zucchini, W., Adamson, P., McNeill, L., 1992. A model of southern African rainfall. S. Afr. J. Sci. 88, 103-109.