Predicting Mortality among Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure: Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Model

JAMA

Volumn 290, Issue 19, 2003, Pages 2581-2587

  Lee, Douglas S ^a,c   Austin, Peter C ^a,c   Rouleau, Jean L ^b   Liu, Peter P ^a,b   Naimark, David ^d   Tu, Jack V ^a,c,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^b MOUNT SINAI HOSPITAL   (Canada)

^c INSTITUTE FOR CLINICAL EVALUATIVE SCIENCES   (Canada)

^d SUNNYBROOK RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

UREA;

ADULT; AGED; AGING; ARTICLE; BREATHING RATE; CANADA; CANCER; CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE; CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE LUNG DISEASE; COHORT ANALYSIS; COMORBIDITY; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; DEMENTIA; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; FEMALE; HEART FAILURE; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMAN; HYPONATREMIA; LIVER CIRRHOSIS; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MORTALITY; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RETROSPECTIVE STUDY; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; SCORING SYSTEM; SURVIVAL RATE; SURVIVAL TIME; SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE; UREA NITROGEN BLOOD LEVEL; VALIDATION PROCESS;

EID: 0344420330     PISSN: 00987484     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1001/jama.290.19.2581     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Ho KK, Anderson KM, Kannel WB, Grossman W, Levy D. Survival after the onset of congestive heart failure in Framingham Heart Study subjects. Circulation. 1993;88:107-115.
2. Zannad F, Braincon S, Juilliere Y, et al. Incidence, clinical and etiologic features, and outcomes of advanced chronic heart failure: the EPICAL study. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1999;33:734-742.
3. Senni M, Tribouilloy CM, Rodeheffer RJ, et al. Congestive heart failure in the community. Circulation. 1998;98:2282-2289.
4. MacIntyre K, Capewell S, Stewart S, et al. Evidence of improving prognosis in heart failure. Circulation. 2000;102:1126-1131.
5. Tu JV, Zhang H. Congestive heart failure outcomes in Ontario. In: Naylor CD, Slaughter PM, eds. Cardiovascular Health and Services in Ontario: An ICES Atlas. Toronto, Ontario: Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; 1999:111-122.
6. Sharpe N. Heart failure in the community. Prog Cardiovasc Dis. 1998;41(1 suppl 1):73-76.
7. Tu JV, Austin PC, Walld R, Roos L, Agras J, McDonald KM. Development and validation of the Ontario acute myocardial infarction mortality prediction rules. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2001;37:992-997.
8. Tu JV, Jaglal SB, Naylor CD, et al. Multicenter validation of a risk index for mortality, intensive care unit stay, and overall hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery. Circulation. 1995;91:677-684.
9. Reilly BM, Evans AT, Schaider JJ, et al. Impact of a clinical decision rule on hospital triage of patients with suspected acute cardiac ischemia in the emergency department. JAMA. 2002;288:342-350.
10. Laupacis A, Sekar N, Stieil IG. Clinical prediction rules: a review and suggested modifications of methodological standards. JAMA. 1997;277:488-494.
11. Tu JV, Mazer CD, Levinton C, Armstrong PW, Naylor CD. A predictive index for length of stay in the intensive care unit following cardiac surgery. CMAJ. 1994;151:177-185.
12. Krumholz HM, Chen J, Wang Y, Radford MJ, Chen YT, Marciniak TA. Comparing AMI mortality among hospitals in patients 65 years of age and older. Circulation. 1999;99:2986-2992.
13. Lee KL, Woodlief LH, Topol EJ, et al. Predictors of 30-day mortality in the era of reperfusion for acute myocardial infarction. Circulation. 1995;91:1659-1668.
14. Rosenthal GE, Baker DW, Norris DG, Way LE, Harper DL, Snow RJ. Relationships between in-hospital and 30-day standardized hospital mortality, Health Serv Res. 2000;34:1449-1468.
15. Keeler EB, Kahn KL, Draper D, et al. Changes in sickness at admission following the introduction of the prospective payment system. JAMA. 1990;264:1962-1968.
16. Daley J, Jencks S, Draper D, Lenhart G, Thomas N, Walker J. Predicting hospital-associated mortality for Medicare patients. JAMA. 1988;260:3617-3624.
17. Jong P, Vowinckel E, Liu PP, Gong Y, Tu JV. Prognosis and determinants of survival in patients newly hospitalized for heart failure: a population-based study. Arch Intern Med. 2002;162:1689-1694.
18. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Washington, DC: Public Health Service, US Dept of Health and Human Services; 1988.
19. Vasan RS, Larson MG, Benjamin EJ, Evans JC, Reiss CK, Levy D. Congestive heart failure in subjects with normal versus reduced left ventricular ejection fraction: prevalence and mortality in a population-based cohort. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1999;33:1948-1955.
20. Senni M, Rodeheffer RJ, Tribouilloy CM, et al. Use of echocardiography in the management of congestive heart failure in the community. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1999;33:164-170.
21. McKee PA, Castelli WP, McNamara PM, Kannel WB. The natural history of congestive heart failure. N Engl J Med. 1971;285:1441-1446.
22. Polanczyk CA, Rohde LE, Philbin EA, Di Salvo TG. A new casemix adjustment index for hospital mortality among patients with congestive heart failure. Med Care. 1998;36:1489-1499.
23. Selker HP, Griffith JL, D'Agostino RB. A time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute hospital mortality due to congestive heart failure. Med Care. 1994;32:1040-1052.
24. Charlson ME, Pompei P, Ales KL, MacKenzie CR. A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chronic Dis. 1987;40:373-383.
25. Lemeshow S, Teres D, Klar J, Avrunin JS, Gehlbach SH, Rapoport J. Mortality probability models based on an international cohort of intensive care unit patients. JAMA. 1993;270:2478-2486.
26. Lee DS, Tran C, Flintoft VF, Grant FC, Liu PP, Tu JV. CCORT/CCS quality indicators for congestive heart failure care. Can J Cardiol. 2003;19:357-364.
27. Landis JR, Koch GG. The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics. 1977;33:159-174.
28. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression. 2nd ed. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons Inc; 2000.
29. Steyerberg EW, Eijkemans MJ, Harrell FE Jr, Habbema JD. Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis. Stat Med. 2000;19:1059-1079.
30. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Mark DB. Multivariable prognostic models. Stat Med. 1996;15:361-387.
31. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology. 1982;143:29-36
32. Van Houwelingen JC, Le Cessie S. Predictive value of statistical models. Stat Med. 1990;9:1303-1325.
33. Tu JV, Naylor CD. Clinical prediction rules. J Clin Epidemiol. 1997;50:743-744.
34. Moons KG, Harrell FE, Steyerberg EW. Should scoring rules be based on odds ratios or regression coefficients? J Clin Epidemiol. 2002;55:1054-1055.
35. Fine MJ, Auble TE, Yealy DM, et al. A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with community-acquired pneumonia N Engl J Med. 1997;336:243-250.
36. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York, NY: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press; 1998.
37. Steyerberg EW, Eijkemans MJ, Harrell FE Jr, Habbema JD. Prognostic modeling with logistic regression analysis: in search of a sensible strategy in small data sets. Med Decis Making. 2001;21:45-56.
38. Steyerberg EW, Harrell FE Jr, Borsboom GJ, et al. Internal validation of predictive models. J Clin Epidemiol. 2001;54:774-781.
39. Chin MH, Goldman L. Correlates of early hospital readmission or death in patients with congestive heart failure. Am J Cardiol. 1997;79:1640-1644.
40. Konstam M, Dracup K, Baker D, et al. Clinical Practice Guideline No. 11: Heart Failure: Evaluation and Care of Patients With Left-Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction. Rockville, Md: Agency for Health Care Policy and Research; 2001. AHCPR No. 94-0612.
41. Graff L, Orledge J, Radford MJ, et al. Correlation of the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research congestive heart failure admission guideline with mortality. Ann Emerg Med. 1999;34(4 pt 1):429-437.
42. Goldberger JJ, Peled HB, Stroh JA, Cohen MN, Frishman WH. Prognostic factors in acute pulmonary edema. Arch Intern Med. 1986;146:489-493.
43. Masoudi FA, Havranek EP, Smith G, et al. Gender, age, and heart failure with preserved left ventricular systolic function. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2003;41:217-223.
44. Poses RM, McClish DK, Smith WR, et al. Results of report cards for patients with congestive heart failure depend on the method used to adjust for severity. Ann Intern Med. 2000;133:10-20.
45. Cleland JG, Cohen-Solal A, Aguilar JC, et al. Management of heart failure in primary care (the improvement of heart failure programme): an international survey. Lancet. 2002;360:1631-1639.
46. Eichhorn EJ. Prognosis determination in heart failure. Am J Med. 2001;110(suppl 7A):14S-36S.
47. Hanratty B, Hibbert D, Mair F, et al. Doctors' perceptions of palliative care for heart failure: focus group study. BMJ. 2002;325:581-585.
48. Wenrich MD, Curtis JR, Shannon SE, et al. Communicating with dying patients within the spectrum of medical care from terminal diagnosis to death. Arch Intern Med. 2001;161:868-874.
49. David AS, Mary R, Neil S, James G. Deaths from heart failure in general practice: implications for palliative care. Palliat Med. 2002;16:495-498.
50. Fried TR, Bradley EH. What matters to seriously ill older persons in making end-of-life treatment decisions: a qualitative study. J Palliat Med. 2003;6:237-244.
51. Southard P, Frankel P. Trauma care documentation. J Emerg Nurs. 1989;15:393-398.
52. Aaronson KD, Schwartz JS, Chen T, Wong K, Goin JE, Mancini DM. Development and prospective validation of a clinical index to predict survival in ambulatory patients referred for cardiac transplant evaluation. Circulation. 1997;95:2660-2667.
53. Campana C, Gavazzi A, Berzuini C, et al. Predictors of prognosis in patients awaiting heart transplantation. J Heart Lung Transplant. 1993;12:756-765.