Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models

Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

Volumn 108, Issue A2, 2003, Pages

  Fry, C D ^a   Dryer, M ^a,b,c   Smith, Z ^b   Sun, W ^c   Deehr, C S ^c   Akasofu, S I ^c  

^a Exploration Physics International Inc   (United States)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

Author keywords

Forecasting real time; Geomagnetic storms; Interplanetary shocks; Solar flares; Space weather; Storm sudden comencements

Indexed keywords

EID: 0141879766     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21699402     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2002JA009474     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Akasofu, S.-I., Predicting geomagnetic storms as a space weather project, in Space Weather, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 125, edited by P. Song et al., pp. 329-337, AGU, Washington, D. C., 2001.
2. Akasofu, S.-I., and C. D. Fry, Heliospheric current sheet and its solar cycle variations, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 13,679-13,688, 1986.
3. Akasofu, S.-I., C. Olmsted, T. Saito, and T. Oki, Quantitative forecasting of the 27-day recurrent magnetic activity, Planet. Space Sci., 36, 1133-1147, 1988.
4. Arge, C. N., and V. J. Pizzo, Improvement in the prediction of solar wind conditions using near-real-time solar magnetic field updates, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 10,465-10,479, 2000.
5. Berdichevsky, D., A. Szabo, R. P. Lepping, and A. F. Vinas, Interplanetary fast shocks and associated drivers observed through the twenty-third solar minimum by WIND over its first 2.5 years, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27,289-27,314, 2000.
6. Dryer, M., Interplanetary shock waves generated by solar flares, Space Sci. Rev., 15, 403-468, 1974.
7. Dryer, M., Interplanetary studies: Propagation of disturbances between the Sun and the magnetosphere, Space Sci. Rev., 67, 363-419, 1994.
8. Dryer, M., Multi-dimensional simulation of solar-generated disturbances: Space weather forecasting of geomagnetic storms, AIAA J., 36, 365-370, 1998.
9. Dryer, M., Application of the classical initial boundary value problem to the Sun-to-Earth's space weather disturbances: Some results and statistics, in Proceedings of the SOLSPA EuroConference on Solar Cycle and Space Weather, Vico Equense. Italy, 24-29 September 2001, ESA Publ., vol. 477, pp. 9-17, 2001.
10. Dryer, M., and S. F. Smart, Dynamical models of coronal transients and interplanetary disturbances, Adv. Space Res., 4, 291-301, 1984.
11. Fry, C. D., The three-dimensional geometry of the heliosphere: Quiet time and disturbed periods, Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, 1985.
12. Fry, C. D., and S.-I. Akasofu, A simulation study of distortion of the heliospheric current sheet caused by solar activity, Planet. Space Sci., 33, 925-931, 1985.
13. Fry, C. D. and S.-I. Akasofu, Three-dimensional structure of the heliospheric current sheet, in The Sun and the Heliosphere in Three Dimensions, Astrophys. Space Sci. Libr., vol. 123, edited by R. G. Marsden, pp. 287-293, D. Reidel, Norwell, Mass., 1986.
14. Fry, C. D., W. Sun, C. S. Deehr, M. Dryer, Z. Smith, S.-I. Akasofu, M. Tokumaru, and M. Kojima, Improvements to the HAF solar wind model for space weather predictions, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 20,985-21,001, 2001.
15. Gopalswamy, N., Type II radio bursts, in Radio Astronomy at Long Wavelengths, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 119, edited by R. G. Stone et al., pp. 123-136, AGU, Washington, D. C., 2000.
16. Gopalswamy, N., A. Lara, R. P. Lepping, M. I. Kaiser, D. Berdichevsky, and O. C. St. Cyr, Acceleration of coronal mass ejections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 145, 2000.
17. Hakamada, K., and S.-I. Akasofu, Simulation of three-dimensional solar wind disturbances and resulting geomagnetic storms, Space Sci. Rev., 31, 3-70, 1982.
18. Heinemann, M., Effects of solar wind inhomogeneities on transit times of interplanetary shock waves, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 64, 315-325, 2002.
19. Jeffrey, A., and T. Taniuti, Non-Linear Wave Propagation With Applications to Physics and Magnetohydrodynamics, chapters 3 and 6, Academic, San Diego, Calif., 1964.
20. Lepping, R. P., and J.-K. Chao, A shock surface geometry: The 15-16 February 1967 event, J. Geophys. Res., 81, 60-64, 1976.
21. Lewis, D., and M. Dryer, Shock-Time-of-Arrival model (STOA-87), NOAA/SEL Contract Rep. (Syst. Doc.) to U.S. Air Weather Serv., 1987.
22. Schaefer, J. T., Critical success index as an indication of warning skill, Weather Forecast., 5, 570-575, 1990.
23. Sedov, L. I., Similarity and Dimensional Atelhods in Atechanics, 4th ed., translated by M. Holt and M. Friedman, chapters 4 and 5, Academic, San Diego, Calif., 1959.
24. Smart, D. F., and M. A. Shea, A simplified model for timing the arrival of solar-flare-initiated shocks, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 183-190, 1985.
25. Smart, D. F., M. A. Shea, W. R. Barron, and M. Dryer, A simplified technique for estimating the arrival time of solar flare-initiated shocks, in Proceedings of STIP Workshop on Solar/Interplanetary Intervals, August 4-6, 1982, Maynooth, Ireland, edited by M. A. Shea et al., pp. 139-156, Bookcrafters, Inc., Chelsea, Mich., 1984.
26. Smart, D. F., M. A. Shea, M. Dryer, A. Quintana, L. C. Gentile, and A. A. Bathhurst, Estimating the arrival time of solar flare-initiated shocks by considering them to be blast waves riding over the solar wind, in Proceedings of the Symposium on Solar-Terrestrial Predictions, edited by P. Simon, G. R. Heckman, and M. A. Shea, pp. 471-481, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., Washington, D. C., 1986.
27. Smith, Z., and M. Dryer, MHD study of temporal and spatial evolution of simulated interplanetary shocks in the ecliptic plane within 1 AU, Sol. Phys., 129, 387-405, 1990.
28. Smith, Z., and M. Dryer, Numerical simulations of high-speed streams within 1 AU and their signatures at 1 AU, Sol. Phys., 131, 363-383, 1991.
29. Smith, Z. and M. Dryer, The Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model: A model for predicting solar-flare-caused geomagnetic sudden impulses based on the 2 1/2 D MHD numerical simulation results from the Interplanetary Global Model (2D IGM), NOAA Tech. Memo., ERL/SEL-89, July 1995.
30. Smith, Z. K., M. Dryer, and M. Armstrong, Can soft X-rays be used as a proxy for total energy injected by a flare into the interplanetary medium?, in IAU Colloquium 144 "Solar Coronal Structures," edited by V. Rusin, P. Heinsel, and J.-C. Vial, pp. 267-270, Kluwer Acad., Norwell, Mass., 1994.
31. Smith, Z., M. Dryer, E. Ort, and W. Murtagh, Performance of interplanetary shock prediction models: STOA and ISPM, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 62, 1265-1274, 2000.
32. Sun, W., S.-I. Akasofu, Z. K. Smith, and M. Dryer, Calibration of the kinematic method of studying the solar wind on the basis of a one-dimensional MHD solution and a simulation study of the heliosphere between November 22-December 6, 1977, Planet. Space Sci., 33, 933-943, 1985.
33. Sun, W., M. Dryer, C. D. Fry, C. S. Deehr, Z. Smith, S.-I. Akasofu, M. D. Kartalev, and K. G. Grigorov, Evaluation of solar type II radio burst estimates of initial solar wind shock speed using a kinematic model of the solar wind on the April 2001 solar event swarm, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, doi:10.1029/2001GL013659, 2002a.
34. Sun, W., M. Dryer, C. D. Fry, C. S. Deehr, Z. Smith, S.-I. Akasofu, M. D. Kartalev, and K. G. Grigorov, Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at Ll during the "April Fools Day" epoch: 28 March-21 April, 2001, Ann. Geophys., 20, 937-945, 2002b.
35. Zhao, X.-P., Interaction of fast steady flow with slow transient flow: A new cause of shock pair and interplanetary Bz event, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 15,051-15,055, 1992.