America's diversity and growth: Signposts for the 21st century

Population Bulletin

Volumn 55, Issue 2, 2000, Pages 3-42

  Riche, Martha Farnsworth ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0040788513     PISSN: 0032468X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Review

References (121)

1. Laurent Belsie, "In the America of 2100, Less Elbow Room," Christian Science Monitor, Jan. 21, 2000, sec. USA: p. 8. Australia has a higher annual population growth rate (1.3 percent), while Canada and New Zealand have slightly lower growth rates (0.8 percent). But since the U.S. population is so much larger, it is indeed alone among more developed countries in terms of numbers of persons added to the population each year.
2. U.S. Census Bureau, "Projections of the Total Resident Population by 5-Year Age Groups, and Sex with Special Age Categories: Middle Series, 1999 to 2100," (NP-T3). Accessed online at: www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natsum.html, on Jan. 20, 2000.
3. Carl Haub and Diana Cornelius, 1999 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1999).
4. See, for example, Ben Wattenberg, "European Union? European Ostrich!" Jewish World Review, April 11, 2000. Accessed online at: www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/wattenberg1.asp, on April 18, 2000; Ben J. Wattenberg, The Birth Dearth (New York: Pharos Books, 1987); Nicholas Eberstadt, "World Population Implosion?" The Public Interest (Fall 1997): 3-22; and Peter G. Peterson, Grey Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America and the World (New York: Times Books, 1999). For a balanced discussion in an international context, see "Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society," OECD Policy Brief, No. 5-1998, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.
5. See, for example, Ben Wattenberg, "European Union? European Ostrich!" Jewish World Review, April 11, 2000. Accessed online at: www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/wattenberg1.asp, on April 18, 2000; Ben J. Wattenberg, The Birth Dearth (New York: Pharos Books, 1987); Nicholas Eberstadt, "World Population Implosion?" The Public Interest (Fall 1997): 3-22; and Peter G. Peterson, Grey Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America and the World (New York: Times Books, 1999). For a balanced discussion in an international context, see "Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society," OECD Policy Brief, No. 5-1998, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.
6. See, for example, Ben Wattenberg, "European Union? European Ostrich!" Jewish World Review, April 11, 2000. Accessed online at: www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/wattenberg1.asp, on April 18, 2000; Ben J. Wattenberg, The Birth Dearth (New York: Pharos Books, 1987); Nicholas Eberstadt, "World Population Implosion?" The Public Interest (Fall 1997): 3-22; and Peter G. Peterson, Grey Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America and the World (New York: Times Books, 1999). For a balanced discussion in an international context, see "Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society," OECD Policy Brief, No. 5-1998, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.
7. See, for example, Ben Wattenberg, "European Union? European Ostrich!" Jewish World Review, April 11, 2000. Accessed online at: www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/wattenberg1.asp, on April 18, 2000; Ben J. Wattenberg, The Birth Dearth (New York: Pharos Books, 1987); Nicholas Eberstadt, "World Population Implosion?" The Public Interest (Fall 1997): 3-22; and Peter G. Peterson, Grey Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America and the World (New York: Times Books, 1999). For a balanced discussion in an international context, see "Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society," OECD Policy Brief, No. 5-1998, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.
8. See, for example, Ben Wattenberg, "European Union? European Ostrich!" Jewish World Review, April 11, 2000. Accessed online at: www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/wattenberg1.asp, on April 18, 2000; Ben J. Wattenberg, The Birth Dearth (New York: Pharos Books, 1987); Nicholas Eberstadt, "World Population Implosion?" The Public Interest (Fall 1997): 3-22; and Peter G. Peterson, Grey Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America and the World (New York: Times Books, 1999). For a balanced discussion in an international context, see "Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society," OECD Policy Brief, No. 5-1998, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.
9. The TFR is a hypothetical measure that assumes that the age-specific birth rates of a given year will apply throughout a woman's lifetime. It does not necessarily correspond to the average number of children a given group of women actually had.
10. Conrad Taeuber and Irene B. Taeuber, The Changing Population of the United States (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1958): 267.
11. National Center for Health Statistics, "Fertility, Family Planning, and Women's Health: New Data From the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth," Vital and Health Statistics Series 23, no. 19 (Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, May 1997): 3-4, Table 1; and unpublished tables.
12. See, for example, Suzanne M. Bianchi and Daphne Spain, "Women, Work, and Family in America," Population Bulletin 51, no. 3 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, December 1996): 11-12.
13. Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kallan, "Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100," Population Division Working Paper No. 38, U.S. Census Bureau (Jan. 13, 2000): 10; and National Center for Health Statistics, "Births: Final Data for 1998," by Stephanie J. Ventura, Joyce A. Martin, Salley C. Curtin, T.J. Mathews, and Melissa Park, National Vital Statistics Reports 48, no. 3 (Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, March 28, 2000): Table 4.
14. Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kallan, "Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100," Population Division Working Paper No. 38, U.S. Census Bureau (Jan. 13, 2000): 10; and National Center for Health Statistics, "Births: Final Data for 1998," by Stephanie J. Ventura, Joyce A. Martin, Salley C. Curtin, T.J. Mathews, and Melissa Park, National Vital Statistics Reports 48, no. 3 (Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, March 28, 2000): Table 4.
15. Kevin M. White and Samuel H. Preston, "How Many Americans Are Alive Because of Twentieth Century Improvements in Mortality?" Population and Development Review 22, no. 3 (September 1996): 415-73; and Jeffrey S. Passel and Barry Edmonston, "Immigration and Race: Recent Trends in Immigration to the United States," in Immigration and Ethnicity: The Integration of America's Newest Arrivals, ed. Barry Edmonston and Jeffery S. Passel (Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press, 1994): 31-54.
16. Kevin M. White and Samuel H. Preston, "How Many Americans Are Alive Because of Twentieth Century Improvements in Mortality?" Population and Development Review 22, no. 3 (September 1996): 415-73; and Jeffrey S. Passel and Barry Edmonston, "Immigration and Race: Recent Trends in Immigration to the United States," in Immigration and Ethnicity: The Integration of America's Newest Arrivals, ed. Barry Edmonston and Jeffery S. Passel (Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press, 1994): 31-54.
17. See, for example, James W. Vaupel, "The Average French Baby May Live 95 or 100 Years," in Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond, ed. Jean-Marie Robine, James W. Vaupel, Bernard Jeune, and Michel Allard (New York, Springer-Verlag, 1997).
18. U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States, Part 1 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1975): Series B 149-166; U.S. Census Bureau, 1999 Statistical Abstract of the United States, 119th ed. (Washington, DC: GPO, 1999): Table 1420; National Center for Health Statistics, "Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998," by Joyce A. Martin, et al., National Vital Statistics Reports 47: 25 (Oct. 5, 1999): Table 11; and "Achievements in Public Health, 1900-1999: Decline in Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke - United States, 1900-1999," Morbidity and Mortality Report 48, no. 3 (Aug. 6, 1999): 649-56.
19. U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States, Part 1 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1975): Series B 149-166; U.S. Census Bureau, 1999 Statistical Abstract of the United States, 119th ed. (Washington, DC: GPO, 1999): Table 1420; National Center for Health Statistics, "Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998," by Joyce A. Martin, et al., National Vital Statistics Reports 47: 25 (Oct. 5, 1999): Table 11; and "Achievements in Public Health, 1900-1999: Decline in Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke - United States, 1900-1999," Morbidity and Mortality Report 48, no. 3 (Aug. 6, 1999): 649-56.
20. U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States, Part 1 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1975): Series B 149-166; U.S. Census Bureau, 1999 Statistical Abstract of the United States, 119th ed. (Washington, DC: GPO, 1999): Table 1420; National Center for Health Statistics, "Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998," by Joyce A. Martin, et al., National Vital Statistics Reports 47: 25 (Oct. 5, 1999): Table 11; and "Achievements in Public Health, 1900-1999: Decline in Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke - United States, 1900-1999," Morbidity and Mortality Report 48, no. 3 (Aug. 6, 1999): 649-56.
21. U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States, Part 1 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1975): Series B 149-166; U.S. Census Bureau, 1999 Statistical Abstract of the United States, 119th ed. (Washington, DC: GPO, 1999): Table 1420; National Center for Health Statistics, "Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998," by Joyce A. Martin, et al., National Vital Statistics Reports 47: 25 (Oct. 5, 1999): Table 11; and "Achievements in Public Health, 1900-1999: Decline in Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke - United States, 1900-1999," Morbidity and Mortality Report 48, no. 3 (Aug. 6, 1999): 649-56.
22. Kenneth G. Manton, Larry Corder, and Eric Stallard, "Chronic Disability Trends in Elderly United States Populations: 1982-94," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 94 (1997): 2593-98.
23. Passel and Edmonston, "Immigration and Race." Passel and Edmonston estimate that immigration contributed 28 percent of population growth from 1900 to 1910.
24. Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1997 Statistical Yearbook (Washington, DC: GPO, 1999): Tables 1 and 4; and Immigration and Naturalization Service, "Legal Immigration, Fiscal Year 1998," Annual Report 2 (May 1999): Table 1.
25. Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1997 Statistical Yearbook (Washington, DC: GPO, 1999): Tables 1 and 4; and Immigration and Naturalization Service, "Legal Immigration, Fiscal Year 1998," Annual Report 2 (May 1999): Table 1.
26. U.S. Census Bureau. Tables accessed at: www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/ nativity/fbta001.txt, on Jan. 20, 2000.
27. Philip Martin and Elizabeth Midgley, "Immigration to the United States," Population Bulletin 54, no. 2 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1999): 17-22.
28. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 112-26.
29. Peter A. Morrison, ed., A Taste of the Country: A Collection of Calvin Beale's Writings (University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1990): 12-18; and Kenneth M.Johnson, "The Rural Rebound," PRB Reports on America 1, no. 3 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1999).
30. Peter A. Morrison, ed., A Taste of the Country: A Collection of Calvin Beale's Writings (University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1990): 12-18; and Kenneth M.Johnson, "The Rural Rebound," PRB Reports on America 1, no. 3 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1999).
31. Charles N. Glaab, A History of Urban America, 2d ed. (New York: Macmillan, 1976): 21-23.
32. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 114-15.
33. Joel Garreau, Edge City: Life on the New Frontier (New York: Doubleday, 1991).
34. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 127; and William H. Frey, "The New Geography of Population Shifts: Trends Toward Balkanization," in State of the Union, vol. 1, ed. Reynolds Farley (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1995): 276.
35. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 127; and William H. Frey, "The New Geography of Population Shifts: Trends Toward Balkanization," in State of the Union, vol. 1, ed. Reynolds Farley (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1995): 276.
36. U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1999: Table 42.
37. U.S. Census Bureau. Accessed online at www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/ma98-01.txt, and www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/ ma98-05.txt, on Dec. 17, 1999.
38. William H. Frey, "The New Geography of Population Shifts."
39. William H. Frey, "Interstate Migration and Immigration for Whites and Minorities, 1985-90: The Emergence of Multi-Ethnic States," Population Studies Center, Research Reports 93-297 (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, 1993); and R.A. Wright, M. Ellis, and M. Reibel, "The Linkage Between Immigration and Internal Migration in Large Metropolitan Areas in the United States," Economic Geography 73, no. 2 (April 1997): 234-54.
40. William H. Frey, "Interstate Migration and Immigration for Whites and Minorities, 1985-90: The Emergence of Multi-Ethnic States," Population Studies Center, Research Reports 93-297 (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, 1993); and R.A. Wright, M. Ellis, and M. Reibel, "The Linkage Between Immigration and Internal Migration in Large Metropolitan Areas in the United States," Economic Geography 73, no. 2 (April 1997): 234-54.
41. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 71. Up to the closing of the legal slave trade in 1808, blacks formed a larger part of the population than they have at any time since. Peter H. Wood, Black Majority (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1974): xiii.
42. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 71. Up to the closing of the legal slave trade in 1808, blacks formed a larger part of the population than they have at any time since. Peter H. Wood, Black Majority (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1974): xiii.
43. U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Statistics, Series A: 91-104.
44. About one-third of white foreign-born residents are from the Middle East, which is included with Asia in official statistics.
45. U.S. Census Bureau. Accessed online at: www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/ nativity/fbtab003.txt, on Jan. 20, 2000.
46. Patrick Heuveline, "The Global and Regional Impact of Mortality and Fertility Transitions," Population and Development Review 25, no. 4 (December 1999): 881-702. Fertility declined after mortality, but with a lag of about 20 years.
47. Census Bureau projections have assumed that all children will have the same racial identity as their mothers. For alternative projections that account for interracial marriage and additional racial categories for children, see James P. Smith and Barry Edmonston, eds., The New Americans (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1997): 76-134.
48. U.S. Census Bureau. Data on international migration are difficult to collect, partly because much migration is clandestine, partly because countries' record-keeping practices differ. However, unpublished data from the United Nations show a considerable increase in emigration from sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, and Western European countries report considerable inflows. Current United Nations projections estimate a considerable increase - in the numbers and proportion of young people in Africa: The share of the population ages 10 to 19 will increase from 16 percent to an estimated 22 percent between 2000 and 2020. Elsewhere in the world, the share of the population this age will either remain stable or decline, especially in more developed countries. See, for example, the chapter on population in "The World's Women" (New York: United Nations, forthcoming 2000).
49. U.S. Census Bureau, "Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100," Population Division Working Paper No. 38, issued Jan. 13, 2000: 12 and Table C.
50. William H. Frey and Reynolds Farley, "Latino, Asian, and Black Segregation in Multi-Ethnic Metro Areas: Findings from the 1990 Census," Research Report No. 93-278 (April 1993), University of Michigan Population Studies Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan; William H. Frey and Douglas Geverdt, "Changing Suburban Demographics: Beyond the 'Black-White, City-Suburb' Typology," Research Report No. 98-422 (July 1998), University of Michigan Population Studies Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
51. William H. Frey and Reynolds Farley, "Latino, Asian, and Black Segregation in Multi-Ethnic Metro Areas: Findings from the 1990 Census," Research Report No. 93-278 (April 1993), University of Michigan Population Studies Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan; William H. Frey and Douglas Geverdt, "Changing Suburban Demographics: Beyond the 'Black-White, City-Suburb' Typology," Research Report No. 98-422 (July 1998), University of Michigan Population Studies Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
52. The inclusion of people from Asian countries in one racial group is largely political in origin, as Asians have tended to identify more with their fellow countrymen than with Asians in general. This may account for the greater fluidity in their self-reporting. For the test, see U.S. Census Bureau, "Results of the 1996 Race and Ethnic Targeted Test," Population Division Working Paper No. 18, May 1997.
53. U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Minority-Owned Business Enterprises: Hispanics (June 1996). Accessed online at: www.census.gov/prod/2/bus/mob/mb92-2.pdf, on May 5, 2000.
54. Kelvin M. Pollard and William P. O'Hare, "America's Racial and Ethnic Minorities," Population Bulletin 54, no. 3 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1999: 12.
55. One estimate of the multiracial population sets its numbers as high as 8 million to 18 million people in 2000, considerably more than the net population undercount that has concerned both politicians and professionals. Joshua R. Goldstein and Ann J. Morning, "The Multiple Race Population of the United States: Issues and Estimates," in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97, no. 11 (2000): 6230-35.
56. In his classic work, Relief and Social Security (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1946), Lewis Meriam rejects this account, and asserts that 65 was chosen because few men were employed by that age. However, many of the original bills set 70 as the minimum age for collecting benefits, perhaps because a plurality of the systems set up by the states (24 of them) used 70. See Abraham Epstein, Insecurity, a Challenge to Americans (New York: H. Smith and R. Haas, 1936): Chap. 26.
57. In his classic work, Relief and Social Security (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1946), Lewis Meriam rejects this account, and asserts that 65 was chosen because few men were employed by that age. However, many of the original bills set 70 as the minimum age for collecting benefits, perhaps because a plurality of the systems set up by the states (24 of them) used 70. See Abraham Epstein, Insecurity, a Challenge to Americans (New York: H. Smith and R. Haas, 1936): Chap. 26.
58. Judith Treas, "Older Americans in the 1990s and Beyond," Population Bulletin, 50, no. 2 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1995): 6.
59. Ronald R. Rindfuss, "The Young Adult Years: Diversity, Structural Change, and Fertility," Demography 28, no. 4 (November 1991): 493-512.
60. National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1998: Table 183. Accessed online at: www.nces.ed.gov, on May 5, 2000.
61. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished tables acquired April 28, 2000.
62. Valerie Kincade Oppenheimer, Matthijs Kalmjn, and Nelson Lim, "Men's Career Development and Marriage Timing During a Period of Rising Inequality," Demography 34 (1997): 311-30.
63. See, for example, Frances Goldscheider, Arland Thornton, and Linda Young-DeMarco, "A Portrait of the Nest-Leaving Process in Early Adulthood," Demography 30 (1993): 683-99; and Frances Goldscheider and Calvin Goldscheider, "Leaving and Returning Home in 20th Century America," Population Bulletin 48, no. 4 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1993).
64. See, for example, Frances Goldscheider, Arland Thornton, and Linda Young-DeMarco, "A Portrait of the Nest-Leaving Process in Early Adulthood," Demography 30 (1993): 683-99; and Frances Goldscheider and Calvin Goldscheider, "Leaving and Returning Home in 20th Century America," Population Bulletin 48, no. 4 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1993).
65. U.S. Census Bureau, Special tabulations of the March 1999 Current Population Survey.
66. U.S. Census Bureau, Press Release, Jan. 14, 2000. Accessed online at: www.census.gov/, on Jan. 14, 2000.
67. Forest E. Linder and Robert D. Grove, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1900-1940 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1943): Table 1; Robert D. Grove and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States 1940-1960 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1968): Table 55; and National Center for Health Statistics, "Deaths: Final Data for 1997," by Donna L. Hoyert, Kenneth D. Kochaneck, and Sherry L. Murphy, National Vital Statistics Reports 47, no. 19. (June 30, 1999): Table 9.
68. Forest E. Linder and Robert D. Grove, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1900-1940 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1943): Table 1; Robert D. Grove and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States 1940-1960 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1968): Table 55; and National Center for Health Statistics, "Deaths: Final Data for 1997," by Donna L. Hoyert, Kenneth D. Kochaneck, and Sherry L. Murphy, National Vital Statistics Reports 47, no. 19. (June 30, 1999): Table 9.
69. Forest E. Linder and Robert D. Grove, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1900-1940 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1943): Table 1; Robert D. Grove and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States 1940-1960 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1968): Table 55; and National Center for Health Statistics, "Deaths: Final Data for 1997," by Donna L. Hoyert, Kenneth D. Kochaneck, and Sherry L. Murphy, National Vital Statistics Reports 47, no. 19. (June 30, 1999): Table 9.
70. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 192.
71. Ibid.: 213.
72. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished tables acquired April 28, 2000.
73. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 213.
74. John R. Besl and Balkrishna D. Kale, "Older Workers in the 21st Century: Active and Educated, A Case Study," Monthly Labor Review 119, no. 6 (June 1996): 18-28; and Treas, "Older Americans": 22.
75. John R. Besl and Balkrishna D. Kale, "Older Workers in the 21st Century: Active and Educated, A Case Study," Monthly Labor Review 119, no. 6 (June 1996): 18-28; and Treas, "Older Americans": 22.
76. Kenneth G. Manton, Larry Corder, and Eric Stallard, "Chronic Disability Trends in Elderly United States Populations: 1982-1994," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 94 (March 1997): 2593-98.
77. See, for example, Rosalind Berkowitz King, "Time Spent in Parenthood Status Among Adults in the United States," Demography 36 (August 1999): 377-85.
78. For a historical appreciation, see Robert V. Wells, Revolutions in Americans' Lives (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 1982): 231; and Hugh Carter and Paul C. Glick, Marriage and Divorce: A Social and Economic Study, revised ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1976): 61-64.
79. For a historical appreciation, see Robert V. Wells, Revolutions in Americans' Lives (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 1982): 231; and Hugh Carter and Paul C. Glick, Marriage and Divorce: A Social and Economic Study, revised ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1976): 61-64.
80. Goldstein and Kenney estimate that some 90 percent of these and later cohorts will eventually marry, thus maintaining the historical pattern that prevailed for all but the middle of the 20th century. Joshua R. Goldstein and Catherine T. Kenney, "Marriage Delayed or Marriage Foregone: New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women." (Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Los Angeles, March 23, 2000).
81. See, for example, Larry Bumpass, Andrew Cherlin, and James Sweet, "The Role of Cohabitation in Declining Rates of Marriage," Journal of Marriage and the Family 53: 913-25.
82. Wendy D. Manning and Pamela Smock, "Why Marry? Race and the Transition to Marriage Among Cohabitors," Demography 32 (November 1995): 509-20.
83. Wells, Revolutions in Americans' Lives: 95.
84. Ibid.: 232; and Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 156.
85. Ibid.: 232; and Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 156.
86. Bianchi and Spain, "Women, Work, and Family": 12.
87. National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States 1987, vol. III - Marriage and Divorce (Washington, DC: GPO, 1991): Table 2-1; and National Center for Health Statistics, "Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 1998," National Vital Statistics Reports 47, no. 21 (July 1999): Table 1.
88. National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States 1987, vol. III - Marriage and Divorce (Washington, DC: GPO, 1991): Table 2-1; and National Center for Health Statistics, "Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 1998," National Vital Statistics Reports 47, no. 21 (July 1999): Table 1.
89. National Opinion Research Center. Data accessed online at: www.icpsr.umich.edu/ GSS99/trend/marital.htm, on March 8, 2000; and U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract, 1999: Table 1418.
90. National Opinion Research Center. Data accessed online at: www.icpsr.umich.edu/ GSS99/trend/marital.htm, on March 8, 2000; and U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract, 1999: Table 1418.
91. Dennis P. Hogan and Frances Goldscheider, "Men's Flight from Children in the U.S.? A Historical Perspective." (Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Los Angeles, March 25, 2000).
92. Bianchi and Spain, "Women, Work, and Family": 11.
93. Ibid.: 12.
94. For an expert review of competing research-based findings, see Andrew J. Cherlin, "Going to Extremes: Family Structure, Children's Well-being, and Social Science," Demography 36 (November 1999): 421-428.
95. See Sara McLanahan and Gary Sandefur, Growing Up With a Single Parent: What Hurts, What Helps (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1994).
96. Cherlin, "Going to Extremes": 427.
97. See Wells, Revolutions in Americans' Lives: 152, which compares statistics over 200 years. In 1764, the average household size in Massachusetts was 6.0, with an average of 7.2 persons per dwelling.
98. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 170.
99. See Maria Cancian and Deborah Reed, "The Impact of Wives' Earnings on Income Inequality: Issues and Estimates," Demography 36 (May 1999): 173-84.
100. Suzanne Bianchi, "Maternal Employment and Time with Children: Dramatic Change or Surprising Continuity?" (Presidential address, annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Los Angeles, March 24, 2000.)
101. U.S. Census Bureau, "Coresident Grandparents and Grandchildren," by Ken Bryson and Lynne M. Casper, Current Population Reports P23-198 (May 1999): 1.
102. In 1997, about 800,000 U.S. families (about 1 percent of all families) included dependent children and at least one grandparent and were maintained by a parent of the child(ren). See U.S. Census Bureau, "Coresident Grandparents": Figure 3.
103. Diane J. Macunovich, Richard A. Easterlin, Eileen M. Crimmins, and Christine Macdonald, "Echoes of the Baby Boom and Bust: Recent and Prospective Changes in Living Alone Among Elderly Widows in the United States," Demography 32 (February 1995): 17-28.
104. See, for example, Kenneth W. Wachter, "Kinship Resources for the Elderly," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 352 (1997): 1811-17.
105. Robert D. Mare "Changes in Educational Attainment and School Enrollment," in State of the Union: America in the 1990s, Vol.1, ed. Reynolds Farley (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1995): 162.
106. U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1999: Table 263.
107. See, for example, William J. Wilson, The Declining Significance of Race, 2nd ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); and Arthur Sakamoto, Huei-Hsia Wu, and Jessie M. Tzeng, "The Declining Significance of Race Among American Men During the Latter Half of the Twentieth Century," Demography 37 (February 2000): 41-52.
108. See, for example, William J. Wilson, The Declining Significance of Race, 2nd ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); and Arthur Sakamoto, Huei-Hsia Wu, and Jessie M. Tzeng, "The Declining Significance of Race Among American Men During the Latter Half of the Twentieth Century," Demography 37 (February 2000): 41-52.
109. Taeuber and Taeuber, Changing Population of the United States: 213.
110. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished tables acquired April 28, 2000.
111. William P. O'Hare, "A New Look at Poverty in America," Population Bulletin 51, no. 2 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1996): 12.
112. Tabulations for the author by PRB of the March 1999 Current Population Survey.
113. Michael A. Stoto and Jane S. Durch, "Forecasting Survival, Health, and Disability: Report on a Workshop," Population and Development Review 19 (September 1993): 557-581.
114. See, for example, Frances Goldscheider, "The Aging of the Gender Revolution: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?" Research on Aging 12 (1990): 531-45.
115. Pollard and O'Hare, "America's Racial and Ethnic Minorities": 12.
116. For a good history of legal categorization children of white and black couples, see Ira Berlin, Slaves Without Master (New York: Pantheon, 1974): 161-4; and Martha Hodes, White Women, Black Men (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997).
117. For a good history of legal categorization children of white and black couples, see Ira Berlin, Slaves Without Master (New York: Pantheon, 1974): 161-4; and Martha Hodes, White Women, Black Men (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997).
118. See Rindfuss, The Young Adult Years.
119. See, for example, Kurt Schrammel, "Comparing the labor market success of young adults from two generations," Monthly Labor Review (February 1998): 3-9.
120. Barbara A. Butrica, Steven H. Sandell, and Howard M. Iams, "Using Couple Data to Project the Distributional Effects of Social Security Policy Changes," Social Security Bulletin 3 (1999): 20-27.
121. Jean-Claude Chenais, "L'Immigration et le Peuplement des Etats-Unis," Population 54, no. 4-5 (1999): 632 (author's translation).