Improved Bayesian analysis of metapopulation data with an application to a tree frog metapopulation

Ecology

Volumn 84, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 231-241

  Ter Braak, Cajo J F ^a   Etienne, Rampal S ^a  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Bayesian analysis; Colonization; Data augmentation; Extinction; Incidence function model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Metapopulation; Quasi stationarity; Stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM); Tree frog

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; FROG; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION; METAPOPULATION; PERSISTENCE; POPULATION MODELING;

AMPHIBIA; ANURA; HYLIDAE; REPTILIA;

EID: 0037837223     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0231:IBAOMD]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Amarasekare, P. 1998. Allee effects in metapopulation dynamics. American Naturalist 152:298-302.
2. Bowman, K. O., and L. R. Shenton. 1985. Method of moments. Pages 467-473 in S. Kotz, N. L. Johnson, and C. B. Read, editors. Encyclopedia of statistical sciences. Volume 5. Wiley, New York, New York, USA.
3. Brown, J. H., and A Kodric-Brown. 1977. Turnover rate in insular biogeography: effect of immigration on extinction. Ecology 58:445-449.
4. Copas, J. B. 1983. Regression, prediction and shrinkage (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 45: 311-354.
5. Etienne, R. S. 2000. Local populations of different sizes, mechanistic rescue effect and patch preference in the Levins metapopulation model. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 62:943-958.
6. Gelman, A., J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, and D. B. Rubin. 1995. Bayesian data analysis. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
7. Gilpin, M., and I. Hanski, editors. 1991. Metapopulation dynamics: empirical and theoretical investigations. Academic Press, London, UK.
8. Gosselin, F. 1999. Test of mathematical assumptions behind the 'incidence function' estimation process of metapopulations' dynamic parameters. Mathematical Biosciences 159:21-32.
9. Gyllenberg, M., and I. A. Hanski 1997. Habitat deteioration, habitat destruction, and metapopulation persistence in a heterogenous landscape. Theoretical Population Biology 52:198-215.
10. Hanski, I. 1983. Coexistence of competitors in patchy environment. Ecology 64:493-500.
11. Hanski, I. 1994. A practical model of metapopulation dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology 63:151-162.
12. Hanski, I. 1999. Metapopulation ecology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
13. Hanski, I. A., and M. E. Gilpin, editors. 1997. Metapopulation biology. Ecology, genetics, and evolution. Academic Press, London, UK.
14. Hanski, I., A. Moilanen, A. Pakkala, and M. Kuussaari. 1996. The quantitative incidence function model and persistence of an endangered butterfly metapopulation. Conservation Biology 10:578-590.
15. Hanski, I., and O. Ovaskainen. 2000. The metapopulation capacity of a fragmented landscape. Nature 404:756-758.
16. Harrison, S. 1994. Metapopulations and conservation. Pages 111-128 in P. J. Edwards, R. M. May, and N. R. Webbs, editors. Large-scale ecology and conservation biology. Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
17. Hastings, W. K. 1970. Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 57:97-109.
18. Jansen, M. J. W., W. A. H. Rossing, and R. A. Daamen. 1994. Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources. Pages 334-343 in J. Grasman and G. van Straten, editors. Predictability and nonlinear modelling in natural sciences and economics. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
19. Jeffreys, H. 1961. Theory of probability. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
20. Kass, R. E., and L. Wasserman. 1996. The selection of prior distributions by formal rules. Journal of the American Statistical Association 91:1343-1370.
21. Kass, R. E., and L. Wasserman. 1998. Correction to Kass, R. E., and L. Wasserman. 1996. The selection of prior distributions by formal rules. Journal of the American Statistical Association 91:1343-1370. Journal of the American Statistical Association 93:412.
22. Levins, R. 1969. Some demographic and genetic consequences of environmental heterogeneity for biological control. Bulletin of the Entomological Society of America 15:237-240.
23. Levins, R. 1970. Extinction. Pages 75-107 in M. Gertenhaber, editor. Some mathematical problems in biology. American Mathematical Society, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.
24. Metropolis, N., A. W. Rosenbluth, M. N. Rosenbluth, A. H. Teller, and E. Teller. 1953. Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. Journal of Chemical Physics 21:1087-1092.
25. Metropolis, N., and S. Ulam. 1949. The Monte-Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association 44:335-341.
26. Moilanen, A. 1999. Patch Occupancy models of metapopulation dynamics: efficient parameter estimation using implicit statistical inference. Ecology 80:1031-1043.
27. Moilanen, A. 2000. The equilibrium assumption in estimating the parameters of metapopulation models. Journal of Animal Ecology 69:143-153.
28. Moilanen, A. 2002. Implications of empirical data quality to metapopulation model parameter estimation and application. Oikos 96:516-530.
29. Nee, S., R. M. May, and M. P. Hassell. 1997. Two species metapopulation models. Pages 123-147 in I. A. Hanski and M. E. Gilpin, editors. Metapopulation biology: ecology, genetics, and evolution. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
30. O'Hara, R. B., E. Arjas, H. Toivonen, and I. Hanski. 2002. Bayesian analysis of metapopulation data. Ecology 83: 2408-2415.
31. Saltelli, A., K. Chan, and E. M. Scott, editors. 2000. Sensitivity analysis. Wiley, New York, New York, USA.
32. Sjögren-Gulve, P., and R. C. Ray. 1996. Using logistic regression to model metapopulation dynamics: large scale forestry extirpates the pool frog. Pages 111-138 in D. L. McCulloch, editor. Metapopulations and wildlife conservation. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
33. Snijders, T. A. B., and M. A. J. van Duijn. 1997. Simulation for statistical inference in dynamic network models. Pages 493-512 in R. Conte, R. Hegselmann, and P. Terna, editors. Simulating social phenomena. Springer, Berlin, Germany.
34. Tanner, M. A., and W. H. Wong. 1987. The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentation (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 82: 528-550.
35. Ter Braak, C. J. F., I. Hanski, and J. Verboom. 1998. The incidence function approach to the modeling of metapopulation dynamics. Pages 167-188 in J. Bascompte and R. V. Solé, editors. Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics in ecology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
36. Verboom, J., A. Schotman, P. Opdam, and J. A. J. Metz. 1991. European nuthatch metapopulations in a fragmented agricultural landscape. Oikos 61:149-156.
37. Vos, C. C., C. J. F. ter Braak, and W. Nieuwenhuizen. 2000. Incidence function modelling and conservation of the tree frog Hyla arborea in the Netherlands. Ecological Bulletins 48:165-180.