메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 40, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 65-79

Stickier priors: The effects of nonanalytic versus analytic thinking in new product forecasting

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 0037291125     PISSN: 00222437     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1509/jmkr.40.1.65.19129     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (35)

References (61)
  • 2
    • 33644693507 scopus 로고
    • Perseverance of social theories: The role of explanation in the persistence of discredited information
    • Anderson, Craig A., Mark R. Lepper, and Lee Ross (1980), "Perseverance of Social Theories: The Role of Explanation in the Persistence of Discredited Information," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 30 (6), 1037-49.
    • (1980) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.30 , Issue.6 , pp. 1037-1049
    • Anderson, C.A.1    Mark, R.2    Lepper Ross, L.3
  • 3
    • 0001996977 scopus 로고
    • Effects of explanation and counterexplanation on the development and use of social theories
    • _ and Elizabeth S. Sechler (1986), "Effects of Explanation and Counterexplanation on the Development and Use of Social Theories," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50 (1), 24-34.
    • (1986) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.50 , Issue.1 , pp. 24-34
    • Sechler, E.S.1
  • 5
    • 0031479817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pulling the plug to stop the new product drain
    • Boulding, William, Ruskin Morgan, and Richard Staelin (1997), "Pulling the Plug to Stop the New Product Drain," Journal of Marketing Research, 34 (February), 164-76.
    • (1997) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.34 , Issue.FEBRUARY , pp. 164-176
    • Boulding, W.1    Morgan, R.2    Staelin, R.3
  • 6
    • 0000284887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction
    • Byram, Stephanie J. (1997), "Cognitive and Motivational Factors Influencing Time Prediction," Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 3 (3), 216-39.
    • (1997) Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied , vol.3 , Issue.3 , pp. 216-239
    • Byram, S.J.1
  • 7
    • 0002777512 scopus 로고
    • The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic
    • Carroll, John S. (1978), "The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 14 (1), 88-96.
    • (1978) Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , vol.14 , Issue.1 , pp. 88-96
    • Carroll, J.S.1
  • 9
    • 0031175964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decomposed versus holistic estimates of effort required for software writing tasks
    • Connolly, Terry and Doug Dean (1997), "Decomposed Versus Holistic Estimates of Effort Required for Software Writing Tasks," Management Science, 43 (7), 1029-46.
    • (1997) Management Science , vol.43 , Issue.7 , pp. 1029-1046
    • Connolly, T.1    Dean, D.2
  • 11
    • 0012203970 scopus 로고
    • Decision making: Going forward in reverse
    • Einhorn, Hillel J. and Robin M. Hogarth (1987), "Decision Making: Going Forward in Reverse," Harvard Business Review, 65 (January-February), 66-70.
    • (1987) Harvard Business Review , vol.65 , Issue.JANUARY-FEBRUARY , pp. 66-70
    • Einhorn, H.J.1    Hogarth, R.M.2
  • 12
    • 0346140934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning from experience: Coping with hindsight bias and ambiguity
    • J. Scott Armstrong, ed. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers
    • Fischhoff, Baruch (2001), "Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity," in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. Scott Armstrong, ed. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 543-54.
    • (2001) Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners , pp. 543-554
    • Fischhoff, B.1
  • 13
    • 0002514104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structure mapping in analogy and similarity
    • Gentner, Dedre and Arthur B. Markman (1997), "Structure Mapping in Analogy and Similarity," American Psychologist, 52 (1), 45-56.
    • (1997) American Psychologist , vol.52 , Issue.1 , pp. 45-56
    • Gentner, D.1    Markman, A.B.2
  • 14
    • 85047681862 scopus 로고
    • Seeing the past in the present: The effect of associations to familiar events on judgments and decisions
    • Gilovich, Thomas (1981), "Seeing the Past in the Present: The Effect of Associations to Familiar Events on Judgments and Decisions," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40 (5), 797-808.
    • (1981) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.40 , Issue.5 , pp. 797-808
    • Gilovich, T.1
  • 15
    • 0031506495 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consumer learning by analogy: A model of internal knowledge transfer
    • Gregan-Paxton, Jennifer and Deborah Roedder John (1997), "Consumer Learning By Analogy: A Model of Internal Knowledge Transfer," Journal of Consumer Research, 24 (December), 266-84.
    • (1997) Journal of Consumer Research , vol.24 , Issue.DECEMBER , pp. 266-284
    • Gregan-Paxton, J.1    John, D.R.2
  • 16
    • 34248446554 scopus 로고
    • Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so?
    • Gregory, W. Larry, Robert B. Cialdini, and Kathleen M. Carpenter (1982), "Self-Relevant Scenarios as Mediators of Likelihood Estimates and Compliance: Does Imagining Make It So?" Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43 (1), 89-99.
    • (1982) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.43 , Issue.1 , pp. 89-99
    • Gregory, W.L.1    Cialdini, R.B.2    Carpenter, K.M.3
  • 17
    • 0025618529 scopus 로고
    • The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others
    • Griffin, Dale W., David Dunning, and Lee Ross (1990), "The Role of Construal Processes in Overconfident Predictions About the Self and Others," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59 (6), 1128-39.
    • (1990) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.59 , Issue.6 , pp. 1128-1139
    • Griffin, D.W.1    Dunning, D.2    Ross, L.3
  • 19
    • 21344498664 scopus 로고
    • Message order effects in persuasion: An attitude strength perspective
    • Haugtvedt, Curtis P. and Duane T. Wegener (1994), "Message Order Effects in Persuasion: An Attitude Strength Perspective," Journal of Consumer Research, 21 (1), 205-18.
    • (1994) Journal of Consumer Research , vol.21 , Issue.1 , pp. 205-218
    • Haugtvedt, C.P.1    Wegener, D.T.2
  • 20
    • 21844503859 scopus 로고
    • Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments
    • Hirt, Edward R. and Keith D. Markman (1995), "Multiple Explanation: A Consider-an-Alternative Strategy for Debiasing Judgments," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69 (6), 1069-86.
    • (1995) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.69 , Issue.6 , pp. 1069-1086
    • Hirt, E.R.1    Markman, K.D.2
  • 22
    • 0038832589 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bidirectional reasoning in decision making by constraint satisfaction
    • Holyoak, Keith J. and Dan Simon (1999), "Bidirectional Reasoning in Decision Making by Constraint Satisfaction," Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 128 (1), 3-31.
    • (1999) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.128 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-31
    • Holyoak, K.J.1    Simon, D.2
  • 23
    • 0346771390 scopus 로고
    • The construction of similarity
    • Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
    • _ and Paul Thagard (1995a), "The Construction of Similarity," in Mental Leaps: Analogy in Creative Thought. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 101-37.
    • (1995) Mental Leaps: Analogy in Creative Thought , pp. 101-137
    • Thagard, P.1
  • 24
    • 0003821796 scopus 로고
    • The analogical scientist
    • Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
    • _ and _ (1995b), "The Analogical Scientist," in Mental Leaps: Analogy in Creative Thought. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 185-209.
    • (1995) Mental Leaps: Analogy in Creative Thought , pp. 185-209
  • 25
    • 0030641856 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The analogical mind
    • _ and _ (1997), "The Analogical Mind," American Psychologist, 52 (1), 35-44.
    • (1997) American Psychologist , vol.52 , Issue.1 , pp. 35-44
  • 26
    • 0002554835 scopus 로고
    • The simulation heuristic
    • Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds. New York: Cambridge University Press
    • Kahneman, Daniel and Amos Tversky (1982), "The Simulation Heuristic," in Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds. New York: Cambridge University Press, 201-208.
    • (1982) Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , pp. 201-208
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 28
    • 0026249754 scopus 로고
    • Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment
    • Koehler, Derek J. (1991), "Explanation, Imagination, and Confidence in Judgment," Psychological Bulletin, 110 (3), 499-519.
    • (1991) Psychological Bulletin , vol.110 , Issue.3 , pp. 499-519
    • Koehler, D.J.1
  • 30
    • 0008082194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of evidence on attitudes: Is polarization the norm?
    • Kuhn, Deanna and Joseph Lao (1996), "Effects of Evidence on Attitudes: Is Polarization the Norm?" Psychological Science, 7 (2), 115-20.
    • (1996) Psychological Science , vol.7 , Issue.2 , pp. 115-120
    • Kuhn, D.1    Lao, J.2
  • 31
    • 23744508345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Confidence and uncertainty in judgmental forecasting: Differential effects of scenario presentation
    • Kuhn, Kristine M. and Janet A. Sniezek (1996), "Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9 (4), 231-47.
    • (1996) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.9 , Issue.4 , pp. 231-247
    • Kuhn, K.M.1    Sniezek, J.A.2
  • 32
    • 0033089176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accounting for the effects of accountability
    • Lerner, Jennifer S. and Philip E. Tetlock (1999), "Accounting for the Effects of Accountability," Psychological Bulletin, 125 (2), 255-75.
    • (1999) Psychological Bulletin , vol.125 , Issue.2 , pp. 255-275
    • Lerner, J.S.1    Tetlock, P.E.2
  • 33
    • 0001774486 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decomposition for judgmental forecasting and estimation
    • J. Scott Armstrong, ed. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers
    • MacGregor, Donald G. (2001), "Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation," in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. Scott Armstrong, ed. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 107-123.
    • (2001) Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners , pp. 107-123
    • MacGregor, D.G.1
  • 34
    • 84980187187 scopus 로고
    • Problem structuring aids for quantitative estimation
    • _ and Sarah Lichtenstein (1991), "Problem Structuring Aids for Quantitative Estimation," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4 (2), 101-16.
    • (1991) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.4 , Issue.2 , pp. 101-116
    • Lichtenstein, S.1
  • 35
    • 0000059512 scopus 로고
    • The overconfidence effect in marketing management predictions
    • Mahajan, Jayashree (1992), "The Overconfidence Effect in Marketing Management Predictions," Journal of Marketing Research, 29 (August), 329-42.
    • (1992) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.29 , Issue.AUGUST , pp. 329-342
    • Mahajan, J.1
  • 36
    • 0031256817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constraints on analogical inference
    • Markman, Arthur B. (1997), "Constraints on Analogical Inference," Cognitive Science, 21 (4), 373-418.
    • (1997) Cognitive Science , vol.21 , Issue.4 , pp. 373-418
    • Markman, A.B.1
  • 37
    • 1542569204 scopus 로고
    • Thought-induced attitude change: The effects of schema structure and commitment
    • Millar, Murray G. and Abraham Tesser (1986), "Thought-Induced Attitude Change: The Effects of Schema Structure and Commitment," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51 (2), 259-69.
    • (1986) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.51 , Issue.2 , pp. 259-269
    • Millar, M.G.1    Tesser, A.2
  • 38
    • 0000633713 scopus 로고
    • Boom, bust, and failures to learn in experimental markets
    • Paich, Mark and John D. Sterman (1993), "Boom, Bust, and Failures to Learn in Experimental Markets," Management Science, 39 (December), 1439-58.
    • (1993) Management Science , vol.39 , Issue.DECEMBER , pp. 1439-1458
    • Paich, M.1    Sterman, J.D.2
  • 39
    • 0002030516 scopus 로고
    • Explaining the evidence: Tests of the story model for juror decision making
    • Pennington, Nancy and Reid Hastie (1992), "Explaining the Evidence: Tests of the Story Model for Juror Decision Making," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62 (2), 189-206.
    • (1992) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.62 , Issue.2 , pp. 189-206
    • Pennington, N.1    Hastie, R.2
  • 40
    • 44949279261 scopus 로고
    • This reminds me of the time when...: Expectation failures in reminding and explanation
    • Read, Stephen J. and Ian L. Cesa (1991), "This Reminds Me of the Time When...: Expectation Failures in Reminding and Explanation," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 27 (1), 1-25.
    • (1991) Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-25
    • Read, S.J.1    Cesa, I.L.2
  • 41
    • 12044255054 scopus 로고
    • The role of content and abstract information in analogical transfer
    • Reeves, Lauretta M. and Robert W. Weisberg (1994), "The Role of Content and Abstract Information in Analogical Transfer," Psychological Bulletin, 115 (3), 381-400.
    • (1994) Psychological Bulletin , vol.115 , Issue.3 , pp. 381-400
    • Reeves, L.M.1    Weisberg, R.W.2
  • 43
    • 85047685101 scopus 로고
    • Social explanation and social expectation: Effects of real and hypothetical explanations on subjective likelihood
    • Ross, Lee, Mark R. Lepper, Fritz Strack, and Julia Steinmetz (1977), "Social Explanation and Social Expectation: Effects of Real and Hypothetical Explanations on Subjective Likelihood," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35 (11), 817-29.
    • (1977) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.35 , Issue.11 , pp. 817-829
    • Ross, L.1    Lepper, M.R.2    Strack, F.3    Steinmetz, J.4
  • 45
    • 21344482872 scopus 로고
    • Overestimating causality: Attributional effects of confirmatory processing
    • Sanbonmatsu, David M., Sharon A. Akimoto, and Earlene Biggs (1993), "Overestimating Causality: Attributional Effects of Confirmatory Processing," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65 (5), 892-903.
    • (1993) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.65 , Issue.5 , pp. 892-903
    • Sanbonmatsu, D.M.1    Akimoto, S.A.2    Biggs, E.3
  • 46
    • 0346140926 scopus 로고
    • The use of multiple scenarios in sales forecasting: An empirical test
    • Schnaars, Steven P. and Martin T. Topol (1987), "The Use of Multiple Scenarios in Sales Forecasting: An Empirical Test," International Journal of Forecasting, 3 (4), 405-19.
    • (1987) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.3 , Issue.4 , pp. 405-419
    • Schnaars, S.P.1    Topol, M.T.2
  • 47
    • 84989132948 scopus 로고
    • Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation
    • Schoemaker, Paul J.H. (1993), "Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation," Strategic Management Journal, 14 (3), 193-213.
    • (1993) Strategic Management Journal , vol.14 , Issue.3 , pp. 193-213
    • Schoemaker, P.J.H.1
  • 48
    • 0032695594 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Justification effects on the judgment of analogy
    • Sieck, Winston R., Clark N. Quinn, and Jonathan W. Schooler (1999), "Justification Effects on the Judgment of Analogy," Memory and Cognition, 27 (5), 844-55.
    • (1999) Memory and Cognition , vol.27 , Issue.5 , pp. 844-855
    • Sieck, W.R.1    Quinn, C.N.2    Schooler, J.W.3
  • 50
    • 38249015251 scopus 로고
    • The effect of accountability on susceptibility to decision errors
    • Simonson, Itamar and Peter Nye (1992), "The Effect of Accountability on Susceptibility to Decision Errors," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51 (3), 416-46.
    • (1992) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.51 , Issue.3 , pp. 416-446
    • Simonson, I.1    Nye, P.2
  • 51
    • 77954557633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The empirical case for two systems of reasoning
    • Sloman, Steven A. (1996), "The Empirical Case for Two Systems of Reasoning," Psychological Bulletin, 119 (1), 3-22.
    • (1996) Psychological Bulletin , vol.119 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-22
    • Sloman, S.A.1
  • 52
    • 0000745791 scopus 로고
    • If Saddam is Hitler then who is George Bush? Analogical mapping between systems of social roles
    • Spellman, Barbara A. and Keith J. Holyoak (1992), "If Saddam Is Hitler Then Who Is George Bush? Analogical Mapping Between Systems of Social Roles," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62 (6), 913-33.
    • (1992) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.62 , Issue.6 , pp. 913-933
    • Spellman, B.A.1    Holyoak, K.J.2
  • 53
    • 0030345992 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pragmatics in analogical mapping
    • _ and _ (1996), "Pragmatics in Analogical Mapping," Cognitive Psychology, 31 (3), 307-46.
    • (1996) Cognitive Psychology , vol.31 , Issue.3 , pp. 307-346
  • 55
    • 84935323404 scopus 로고
    • Accountability: A social check on the fundamental attribution error
    • _ (1985), "Accountability: A Social Check on the Fundamental Attribution Error," Social Psychology Quarterly, 48 (3), 227-36.
    • (1985) Social Psychology Quarterly , vol.48 , Issue.3 , pp. 227-236
  • 56
    • 0034339133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the politics of the beholder?
    • _ (2000), "Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Politics of the Beholder?" Administrative Science Quarterly, 45 (2), 293-326.
    • (2000) Administrative Science Quarterly , vol.45 , Issue.2 , pp. 293-326
  • 57
    • 0024723042 scopus 로고
    • Accountability: A social magnifier of the dilution effect
    • _ and Richard Boettger (1989), "Accountability: A Social Magnifier of the Dilution Effect," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57 (3), 388-98.
    • (1989) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 388-398
    • Boettger, R.1
  • 58
    • 0023319007 scopus 로고
    • Accountability and judgment processes in a personality prediction task
    • _ and Jae Il Kim (1987), "Accountability and Judgment Processes in a Personality Prediction Task," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 52 (4), 700-709.
    • (1987) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.52 , Issue.4 , pp. 700-709
    • Jae Il Kim1
  • 59
    • 43249084062 scopus 로고
    • Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
    • Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman (1983), "Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment," Psychological Review, 90 (4), 293-315.
    • (1983) Psychological Review , vol.90 , Issue.4 , pp. 293-315
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 60
    • 0003376794 scopus 로고
    • Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead
    • Wack, Pierre (1985), "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead," Harvard Business Review, 63 (September-October), 73-89.
    • (1985) Harvard Business Review , vol.63 , Issue.SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER , pp. 73-89
    • Wack, P.1
  • 61
    • 0031519716 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rethinking market research: Putting people back in
    • Zaltman, Gerald (1997), "Rethinking Market Research: Putting People Back In," Journal of Marketing Research, 34 (November), 424-37.
    • (1997) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.34 , Issue.NOVEMBER , pp. 424-437
    • Zaltman, G.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.