Dynamics of measles epidemics: Scaling noise, determinism, and predictability with the TSIR model

Ecological Monographs

Volumn 72, Issue 2, 2002, Pages 185-202

  Grenfell, Bryan T ^a   Bjørnstad, Ottar N ^b   Finkenstädt, Bärbel F ^a,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^b PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Attractor evolution; Core satellite metapopulation; Epidemic birth death process; Extinction recolonization; Nonlinear stochastic dynamics; Persistence thresholds; Population cycles; Time series analysis; Transience; TSIR model; Vaccination

Indexed keywords

DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGY; MEASLES; MEDICAL GEOGRAPHY; METAPOPULATION; MODEL; POPULATION CYCLE; TIME SERIES;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 0036590803     PISSN: 00129615     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/0012-9615(2002)072[0185:DOMESN]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

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