메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 151, Issue 5, 1998, Pages 425-440

Noise and nonlinearity in measles epidemics: Combining mechanistic and statistical approaches to population modeling

Author keywords

Local Lyapunov exponents; Measles; Modeling; Population dynamics; Time series analysis

Indexed keywords


EID: 0031895048     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/286130     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (119)

References (49)
  • 2
    • 34249834828 scopus 로고
    • Local Lyapunov exponents computed from observed data
    • _. 1992. Local Lyapunov exponents computed from observed data. Journal of Nonlinear Science 2: 343-365.
    • (1992) Journal of Nonlinear Science , vol.2 , pp. 343-365
  • 5
  • 11
    • 0028974630 scopus 로고
    • Experimentally induced transitions in the dynamics behavior of insect populations
    • Costantino, R. F., J. M. Gushing, and R. A. Desharnais. 1995. Experimentally induced transitions in the dynamics behavior of insect populations. Nature (London) 375:227-229.
    • (1995) Nature (London) , vol.375 , pp. 227-229
    • Costantino, R.F.1    Gushing, J.M.2    Desharnais, R.A.3
  • 12
    • 0026357593 scopus 로고
    • A simple larval diet for population studies on the blowfly Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae)
    • Daniels, S., K. Simkiss, and R. H. Smith. 1991. A simple larval diet for population studies on the blowfly Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae). Medical and Veterinary Entomology 5:283-292.
    • (1991) Medical and Veterinary Entomology , vol.5 , pp. 283-292
    • Daniels, S.1    Simkiss, K.2    Smith, R.H.3
  • 13
    • 0006276873 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic noise amplifiers
    • Deissler, R. J., and J. D. Farmer. 1992. Deterministic noise amplifiers. Physica D 55:155-165.
    • (1992) Physica D , vol.55 , pp. 155-165
    • Deissler, R.J.1    Farmer, J.D.2
  • 14
    • 0028976114 scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear demographic dynamics: Mathematical models, statistical methods, and biological experiments
    • Dennis, B., R. A. Desharnais, J. M. Gushing, and R. F. Costantino. 1995. Nonlinear demographic dynamics: mathematical models, statistical methods, and biological experiments. Ecological Monographs 65:261-281.
    • (1995) Ecological Monographs , vol.65 , pp. 261-281
    • Dennis, B.1    Desharnais, R.A.2    Gushing, J.M.3    Costantino, R.F.4
  • 15
    • 0002289542 scopus 로고
    • Detecting low-dimensional chaos in population dynamics data: A critical review
    • J. Logan and F. Hain, eds. Virginia Agricultural Experimental Station, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Charlottesville
    • Ellner, S. 1991. Detecting low-dimensional chaos in population dynamics data: a critical review. Pages 63-90 in J. Logan and F. Hain, eds. Chaos and insect ecology. Virginia Agricultural Experimental Station, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Charlottesville.
    • (1991) Chaos and Insect Ecology , pp. 63-90
    • Ellner, S.1
  • 16
    • 0028973866 scopus 로고
    • Chaos in a noisy world: New methods and evidence from time-series analysis
    • Ellner, S., and P. Turchin. 1995. Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time-series analysis. American Naturalist 145:343-375.
    • (1995) American Naturalist , vol.145 , pp. 343-375
    • Ellner, S.1    Turchin, P.2
  • 17
    • 0003495120 scopus 로고
    • LENNS, a program to estimate the dominant Lyapunov exponent of noisy nonlinear systems from time series data
    • Statistics Department, North Carolina State University, Raleigh
    • Ellner S., D. W. Nychka, and A. R. Gallant. 1992. LENNS, a program to estimate the dominant Lyapunov exponent of noisy nonlinear systems from time series data. Institute of Statistics Mimeo Series no. 2235. Statistics Department, North Carolina State University, Raleigh.
    • (1992) Institute of Statistics Mimeo Series No. 2235 , vol.2235
    • Ellner, S.1    Nychka, D.W.2    Gallant, A.R.3
  • 18
    • 0003279022 scopus 로고
    • Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data
    • D. Mollison, ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Ellner, S., A. R. Gallant, and J. Theiler. 1995. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data. Pages 229-247 in D. Mollison, ed. Epidemic models: their structure and relation to data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
    • (1995) Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data , pp. 229-247
    • Ellner, S.1    Gallant, A.R.2    Theiler, J.3
  • 20
    • 0039818638 scopus 로고
    • A nonparametric approach to nonlinear time series analysis: Estimation and simulation
    • D. Brillinger, P. Caines, J. Geweke, E. Parzen, M. Rosenblatt, and M. S. Taqqu, eds. Springer, New York
    • Gallant, A. R., and G. Tauchen. 1992. A nonparametric approach to nonlinear time series analysis: estimation and simulation. Pages 77-92 in D. Brillinger, P. Caines, J. Geweke, E. Parzen, M. Rosenblatt, and M. S. Taqqu, eds. New directions in time series analysis. Pt. 2. Springer, New York.
    • (1992) New Directions in Time Series Analysis , Issue.2 PART , pp. 77-92
    • Gallant, A.R.1    Tauchen, G.2
  • 23
    • 0001787366 scopus 로고
    • Seasonality, demography and the dynamics of measles in developed countries
    • D. Mollison, ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • _. 1995c. Seasonality, demography and the dynamics of measles in developed countries. Pages 248-268 in D. Mollison, ed. Epidemic models: their structure and relation to data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
    • (1995) Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data , pp. 248-268
  • 24
    • 0021046625 scopus 로고
    • The systematic formulation of tractable single-species population models incorporating age structure
    • Gurney, W. S. C., R. M. Nisbet, and J. H. Lawton. 1983. The systematic formulation of tractable single-species population models incorporating age structure. Journal of Animal Ecology 52:479-495.
    • (1983) Journal of Animal Ecology , vol.52 , pp. 479-495
    • Gurney, W.S.C.1    Nisbet, R.M.2    Lawton, J.H.3
  • 25
    • 0027337545 scopus 로고
    • Population oscillations of boreal rodents: Regulation by mustelid predators leads to chaos
    • Hanski, I., P. Turchin, E. Korpimäki, and H. Henttonen. 1993. Population oscillations of boreal rodents: regulation by mustelid predators leads to chaos. Nature (London) 364:232-235.
    • (1993) Nature (London) , vol.364 , pp. 232-235
    • Hanski, I.1    Turchin, P.2    Korpimäki, E.3    Henttonen, H.4
  • 28
    • 0030616677 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic dynamics and deterministic skeletons: Population behavior of Dungeness crab
    • Higgins, K., A. Hastings, J. N. Sorvela, and L. W. Botsford. 1997. Stochastic dynamics and deterministic skeletons: population behavior of Dungeness crab. Science (Washington, D.C.) 276:1431-1435.
    • (1997) Science (Washington, D.C.) , vol.276 , pp. 1431-1435
    • Higgins, K.1    Hastings, A.2    Sorvela, J.N.3    Botsford, L.W.4
  • 29
    • 0031015249 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disease extinction and community size: Modeling the persistence of measles
    • Keeling, M. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1997. Disease extinction and community size: modeling the persistence of measles. Science (Washington, D.C.) 275:65-67.
    • (1997) Science (Washington, D.C.) , vol.275 , pp. 65-67
    • Keeling, M.J.1    Grenfell, B.T.2
  • 32
    • 0030620646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mathematical and computational challenges in population biology and ecosystems science
    • Levin, S. A., B. Grenfell, A. Hastings, and A. S. Perelson. 1997. Mathematical and computational challenges in population biology and ecosystems science. Science (Washington, D.C.) 275:334-343.
    • (1997) Science (Washington, D.C.) , vol.275 , pp. 334-343
    • Levin, S.A.1    Grenfell, B.2    Hastings, A.3    Perelson, A.S.4
  • 39
    • 0000740021 scopus 로고
    • The case for chaos in childhood epidemics
    • S. Krasner, ed. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.
    • Schaffer, W. M., L. M. Olsen, G. L. Truty, and S. L. Fulmer. 1990. The case for chaos in childhood epidemics. Pages 138-166 in S. Krasner, ed. The ubiquity of chaos. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.
    • (1990) The Ubiquity of Chaos , pp. 138-166
    • Schaffer, W.M.1    Olsen, L.M.2    Truty, G.L.3    Fulmer, S.L.4
  • 41
    • 0027335601 scopus 로고
    • Effects of population density and cadmium toxicity on growth and survival of blowflies
    • Simkiss, K., S. Daniels, and R. H. Smith. 1993. Effects of population density and cadmium toxicity on growth and survival of blowflies. Environmental Pollution 81:41-45.
    • (1993) Environmental Pollution , vol.81 , pp. 41-45
    • Simkiss, K.1    Daniels, S.2    Smith, R.H.3
  • 43
    • 0025199496 scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series
    • Sugihara, G., and R. M. May. 1990. Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series. Nature (London) 344:734-741.
    • (1990) Nature (London) , vol.344 , pp. 734-741
    • Sugihara, G.1    May, R.M.2
  • 45
    • 0027869439 scopus 로고
    • Chaos and stability in rodent population dynamics: Evidence from nonlinear time-series analysis
    • Turchin, P. 1993. Chaos and stability in rodent population dynamics: evidence from nonlinear time-series analysis. Oikos 68:167-172.
    • (1993) Oikos , vol.68 , pp. 167-172
    • Turchin, P.1
  • 48
    • 0028178556 scopus 로고
    • Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories
    • Wood, S. N. 1994. Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories. Ecological Monographs 64:23-44.
    • (1994) Ecological Monographs , vol.64 , pp. 23-44
    • Wood, S.N.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.