Which Statistical Formats Facilitate What Decisions? The Perception and Influence of Different Statistical Information Formats

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Volumn 15, Issue 5, 2002, Pages 381-401

  Brase, Gary L ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SUNDERLAND   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Judgment under uncertainty; Probability judgment; Problem solving; Rationality; Reasoning; Social influence; Stimulus ambiguity

Indexed keywords

EID: 0036453159     PISSN: 08943257     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.421     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Aitchison, J., & Dunsmore, I. (1975). Statistical prediction analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2. Brase G. L. (in press). 'Bugs' built into the system: an evolutionary explanation for developmental difficulties in learning about fractions. Learning and Individual Differences
3. Brase, G. L., Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1998). Individuation, counting and statistical inference: the role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 127, 3-21.
4. Brown, R. D., & Newman, D. L. (1982). An investigation of the effect of different data presentation formats and order of arguments in a simulated adversary evaluation. Educational Evaluation & Policy Analysis, 4, 197-203.
5. Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions of the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition, 58, 1-73.
6. Evans, J. S. B. T., Handley, S. J., Perham, N., Over, D. E., & Thompson, V. A. (2000). Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems. Cognition, 77, 197-213.
7. Fetherstonhaugh, D., Slovic, P., Johnson, S. M., & Friedrich, J. (1998). Insensitivity to the value of human life: a study of psychophysical numbing. In H. J. Langholtz (Ed.), The psychology of peacekeeping (pp. 75-88). Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers/Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc.
8. Freudenburg, W. R., & Rursch, J. A. (1994). The risks of 'putting the numbers in context': a cautionary tale. Risk Analysis, 14, 949-958.
9. Gallistel, C. R., & Gelman, R. (1992). Preverbal and verbal counting and computations. Cognition, 44, 43-74.
10. Geary, D. C. (1995). Reflection of evolution and culture in children's cognition: implications for mathematical development and instruction. American Psychologist, 50, 24-37.
11. Gelman, R. (1998). Domain specificity in cognitive development: universals and nonuniversals. In M. Sabourin, & F. Craik (Eds.), Advances in psychological science, Vol. 2: Biological and cognitive aspects (pp. 557-579). Hove: Psychology Press/Erlbaum.
12. Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: beyond heuristics and biases. European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83-115.
13. Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684-704.
14. Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1999). Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: a reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999). Psychological Review, 106, 425-430.
15. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., Ebert, A. (1998). AIDS counseling for low-risk clients. AIDS Care, 10, 197-211.
16. Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & The ABC Research Group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
17. Girotto, V., & Gonzalez, M. (2001). Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: a matter of information structure and question form. Cognition, 78, 247-276.
18. Halpern, D. F., Blackman, S., & Salzman, B. (1989). Using statistical risk information to assess oral contraceptive safety. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 3, 251-260.
19. Harries, G., Harvey, N. (2000). Are absolute frequencies, relative frequencies, or both effective in reducing cognitive biases? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 431-444.
20. Hartnett, P., & Gelman, R. (1998). Early understandings of numbers: paths or barriers to the construction of new understandings? Learning & Instruction, 8, 341-374.
21. Hoffrage, U., Gigerenzer, G., Krauss, S., & Martingnon, L. (in press). Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not. Cognition.
22. Hoffrage, U., Lindsey, S., Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Communicating statistical information. Science, 290, 2261-2262.
23. Howson, C., & Urbach, P. (1993). Scientific reasoning: The Bayesian approach (2nd edn). Chicago: La Salle.
24. Johnson-Laird, P. N., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M. S., & Caverni, J. P. (1999). Naive probability: a mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62-88.
25. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
26. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454.
27. Kleiter, G. (1994). Natural sampling: rationality without base rates. In G. H. Fischer, & D. Laming (Eds.), Contributions to mathematical psychology, psychometrics, and methodology (pp. 375-388). New York: Springer-Verlag.
28. Macchi, L. (2000). Partitive formulation of information in probabilistic problems: beyond heuristics and frequency format explanations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 82, 217-236.
29. Matlin, M. W. (1994). Cognition (4th edn). Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace College Publishers.
30. National Public Radio. 13 June 2000. Wage gap. The Diane Rehm Show.
31. Petty, R. E., Wegener, D. T., & Fabrigar, L. R. (1997). Attitudes and attitude change. Annual Review of Psychology, 48, 609-647.
32. Reinard, J. C. (1988). The empirical study of the persuasive effects of evidence: the status after fifty years of research. Human Communication Research, 15, 3-59.
33. Samuels, R., Stich, S., & Bishop, M. (2001). Ending the rationality wars: how to make disputes about human rationality disappear. In R. Elio (Ed.), Common sense, reasoning and rationality, Vancouver Studies in Cognitive Science, Vol.11. New York: Oxford University Press.
34. Shepard, R. N. (1984). Ecological constraints on internal representation: resonant kinematics of perceiving, imagining, thinking, and dreaming. Psychological Review, 91, 417-447.
35. Shepard, R. N. (1987). Evolution of a mesh between principles of the mind and regularities of the world. In J. Dupre (Ed.), The latest on the best: Essays on evolution and optimality (pp. 251-275). Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
36. Simon, H. A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of environments. Psychological Review, 63, 129-138.
37. Simon, H. A. (1990). Invariants of human behavior. Annual Review of Psychology, 41, 1-19.
38. Thompson, W. C., & Schumann, E. L. (1987). Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: the prosecutor's fallacy and the defense attorney's fallacy. Law & Human Behavior, 11, 167-187.
39. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.
40. Wang, X. T. (1996a). Domain-specific rationality in human choices: violations of utility axioms and social contexts. Cognition, 60, 31-63.
41. Wang, X. T. (1996b). Evolutionary hypotheses of risk-sensitive choice: age differences and perspective change. Ethology & Sociobiology, 17, 1-15.
42. Wang, X. T. (1996c). Framing effects: dynamics and task domains. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 68, 145-157.
43. Wang, X. T., & Johnston, V. S. (1995). Perceived social context and risk preference: a re-examination of framing effects in a life-death decision problem. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 8, 279-293.
44. World Health Organization Press Release WHO/58: Osteoporosis: both health organizations and individuals must act now to avoid an impending epidemic. (1999). http://www.who.org/inf-pr-1999/en/pr99-58.html [11 October 1999].
45. Wynn, K. (1992). Issues concerning a nativist theory of numerical knowledge. Mind & Language, 7, 367-381.
46. Wynn, K. (1995). Infants possess a system of numerical knowledge. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 4, 172-177.
47. Wynn, K. (1998a). An evolved capacity for number. In D. D. Cummins, & C. Allen (Eds.), The evolution of mind (pp. 107-126). New York: Oxford University Press.
48. Wynn, K. (1998b). Numerical competence in infants. In C. Donlan (Ed.), The development of mathematical skills: Studies in developmental psychology (pp. 3-25). Hove: Psychology Press.