God gave physics the easy problems: Adapting social science to an unpredictable world

European Journal of International Relations

Volumn 6, Issue 1, 2000, Pages 43-76

  Bernstein, Steven ^a   Lebow, Richard Ned ^a   Stein, Janice Gross ^a   Weber, Steven ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

Author keywords

Analogies to science; Ethnic conflict; Forecasting; Privatization of security; Proliferation; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

EID: 0034344738     PISSN: 13540661     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/1354066100006001003     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Almond, Gabrial and Stephen J. Genco (1977) 'Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of Politics', World Politics 29: 496-522.
2. Ball, Terence (1987) Idioms of Inquiry. Albany: State University of New York Press.
3. Bhaskar, Roy (1979) The Possibility of Naturalism. A Philosophical Critique of the Contemporary Human Science. Brighton: Harvester Press.
4. Biersteker, Thomas J. and Cynthia Weber (1996) State Sovereignty as Social Construct. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
5. Bobrow, Davis B. (1996) 'Complex Insecurity: Implications of Sobering Metaphor', International Studies Quarterly 40(4): 435-50.
6. Brown, Robert (1984) The Nature of Social Laws. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (1981) The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press.
8. Carlsnaes, Walter (1992) 'The Agency-Structure Problem in Foreign Policy Analysis', International Studies Quarterly 36(3): 245-70.
9. Carlsnaes, Walter (1993) 'On Analyzing the Dynamics of Foreign Policy Change: A Critique and Reconceptualization', Cooperation and Conflict 28(1): 5-30.
10. Chan, Steve (1997) 'In Search of Democratic Peace: Problems and Promise', Mershon International Studies Review 41, Supplement 1: 59-92.
11. Coleman, James (1964) 'Problems of Quantitative Measurement in Sociology', in James Coleman (ed.) Introduction to Mathematical Sociology. New York: Free Press.
12. Collier, Andrew (1994) Critical Realism: An Introduction to Roy Bhaskar's Philosophy. London: Verso.
13. COW (1998) 'Working list, Correlates of War Project.'
14. Deudney, Daniel H. (1995a) 'Nuclear Weapons and the End of the Real-State', Daedalus 124(2): 209-31.
15. Deudney, Daniel H. (1995b) 'The Philadelphian System: Sovereignty, Arms Control, and Balance of Power in the American States-Union, Circa 1987-1861', International Organization 49(2): 191-228.
16. Elster, Jon (1989) Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
17. Emerson, Rupert (1960) From Empire to Nation: The Rise to Self-Assertion of Asian and African Peoples. Boston: Beacon Press.
18. Feaver, Peter D., Scott D. Sagan and David J. Karl (1997) 'Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers', International Security 22(2): 185-207.
19. Ferguson, Yale H. and Richard W. Mansbach (1996) Polities: Authority, Identities, and Change. Columbia, SC: South Carolina University Press.
20. Ganguly, Šumit (1997) 'Explaining the Kashmir Insurgency: Political Mobilization and Institutional Decay', International Security 21(2): 76-107.
21. Geddes, Barbara (1990) 'How the Cases you Choose Affect the Answers you Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics', Political Analysis 2: 131-50.
22. George, Alexander L. (1993) Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy. Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace Press.
23. Gould, Stephen Jay (1989) Wonderful Life. New York: W.W. Norton.
24. Gould, Stephen Jay (1996) Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin. New York: Harmony Books.
25. Gunnell, John G. (1975) Philosophy, Science and Political Inquiry. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press.
26. Gunnell, John G. (1982) Between Philosophy and Politics. Amherst: University of Massachusetts Press.
27. Hall, Rodney Bruce (1998) National Collective Identity: Social Constructs and International Systems. New York: Columbia University Press.
28. Harré, Rom and Peter Secord (1973) The Explanation of Social Behaviour. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
29. Hempel, Carl G. (1952) 'Ideal Types in Social Science Comply with Covering Law Requirements', in Leonard I. Krimerman (ed.) The Nature and Scope of Social Science, pp. 445-56. New York: Appleton-Crofts.
30. Henderson, Gregory and Richard Ned Lebow (1974) 'Conclusions', in Gregory Henderson, Richard Ned Lebow and John G. Stoessinger (eds) Divided Nations in a Divided World, pp. 433-54. New York: David McKay Company.
31. Herz, John H. (1957) 'The Rise and Demise of the Territorial State', World Politics 9(4): 473-93.
32. Herz, John H. (1968) 'The Territorial State Revisited - Reflections on the Future of the Nation-State', Polity 1(1): 11-34.
33. Hollis, Martin (1994) The Philosophy of Social Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
34. Homer-Dixon, Thomas (1996) 'The Project on Environment, Population and Security: Key Findings of Research', The Woodrow Wilson Center Environmental Change and Security Project Report 2: 45-8.
35. Homer-Dixon, Thomas (1999) Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
36. Horowitz, Donald L. (1985) Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.
37. Jervis, Robert (1997) System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
38. Karl, David J. (1996/7) 'Proliferation, Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers', International Security 21(3): 87-119.
39. Kaufman, Stuart (1997) 'Spiraling to Ethnic War: Elites, Masses and Moscow in Moldova's Civil War', International Security 21(2): 108-38.
40. King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane and Sidney Verba (1994) Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Quantitative Research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
41. Kratochwil, Friedrich V. (1989) Rules, Norms and Decisions: On the Conditions of Practical and Legal Reasoning in International Relations and Domestic Affairs. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
42. Kratochwil, Friedrich V. (1995) 'Sovereignty and Dominium: Is there a Right of Humanitarian Intervention?', in Gene M. Lyons and M. Mastanduno (eds) Beyond Westphalia? State Sovereignty and International Intervention, pp. 21-42. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
43. Kupchan, Charles A. (1994) The Vulnerability of Empire. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
44. Lake, David A. and Donald Rothchild (1997) 'Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict', International Security 21(2): 41-75.
45. Lapidus, Gail W. (1998) 'Contested Sovereignty: The Tragedy of Chechnya', International Security 23(1): 5-49.
46. Lasswell, Harold D. (1935) World Politics and Personal Insecurity. New York: McGraw-Hill.
47. Lebow, Richard Ned and Janice Gross Stein (1990) 'Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable', World Politics 42: 336-69.
48. Lustick, Ian (1996) 'Multiple Historical Records and the Problem of Selection Bias', American Political Science Review 90: 505-18.
49. Mearsheimer, John J. (1990) 'Back to the Future: Instabiity in Europe After the Cold War', International Security 15: 5-56.
50. Modelski, George and Kazimerz Poznanski (1996) 'Evolutionary Paradigms in the Social Sciences', International Studies Quarterly 40: 315-19.
51. Moe, Terry M. (1979) 'On the Scientific Status of Rational Models', American Journal of Political Science 23: 215-43.
52. Morgenstern, Oskar (1972) 'Thirteen Critical Points in Contemporary Economic Theory', Journal of Economic Literature 10: 1164-5.
53. Morris, Simon Conway (1998) The Crucible of Creation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
54. Pasic, Amir and Thomas G. Weiss (1997) 'The Politics of Rescue: Yugoslavia's Wars and the Humanitarian Impulse', Ethics and International Affairs 11: 105-31.
55. Patomäki, Heikki (1996) 'How to Tell Better Stories about World Politics', European Journal of International Relations 2: 105-34.
56. Polkinghorne, D. (1988) Narrative Knowing and the Human Sciences. Albany: State University of New York Press.
57. Radelet, Steven and Jeffrey Sachs (1999) 'What Have We Learned, So Far, From the Asian Financial Crisis?' Unpublished manuscript.
58. Rorty, Richard (1989) Contingency, Irony and Solidarity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
59. Rosell, Steven A. (1999) Renewing Governance: Governing by Learning in the Information Age. New York: Oxford University Press.
60. Rudner, Richard (1966) Philosophy of Social Science. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
61. Ruggie, John G. (1993) 'Territoriality and Beyond: Problematizing Modernity in International Relations', International Organization 47: 139-74.
62. Ruggie, John G. (1998) Constructing the World Polity. London: Routledge.
63. Sachs, Jeffrey (1998) 'Global Capitalism: Making it Work', The Economist 12: 23-5.
64. Sagan, Scott D. and Kenneth N. Waltz (1995) The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate. New York: Norton.
65. Searle, John R. (1995) The Construction of Social Reality. New York: Free Press.
66. Snyder, Jack and Karen Ballentine (1997) 'Nationalism and the Marketplace of Ideas', International Security 21(2): 5-40.
67. Solingen, Etel (1994) 'The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint', International Security 19(2): 126-69.
68. Solingen, Etel (1995) 'The New Multilateralism and Nonproliferation: Bringing in Domestic Politics', Global Governance 1(2): 205-27.
69. Stein, Janice Gross et al. (1998) 'Five Scenarios of the Israeli-Palestinian Relationship in 2002: Works in Progress', Security Studies 7: 195-212.
70. Stein, Janice Gross (2000a) 'Proliferation, Non-Proliferation, and Counter-Proliferation: Egypt and Israel in the Middle East', in Steven Spiegel, Michael Yaffe and Elizabeth Matthews (eds) The Dynamics of Middle East Nuclear Proliferation, forthcoming. New York: Mellon Press.
71. Stein, Janice Gross (2000b) 'The Privatization of Security in Global Space', International Studies Review forthcoming.
72. Stein, Janice Gross (2000c) 'Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: NGOs and Humanitarian Assistance', in Howon Jeong (ed.) International Conflict and Conflict Resolution, forthcoming. New York: Mellon Press.
73. Strange, Susan (1996) The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
74. Taylor, Charles (1985) 'Interpretation and the Sciences of Man', in Philosophy and the Human Sciences, pp. 15-57. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
75. Tetlock, Philip E. and Aaron Belkin (eds) (1996) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
76. Tilly, Charles (1975) The Formation of National States in Western Europe. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
77. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1981) 'The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May be Better', Adelphi Papers 178. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
78. Weber, Max (1969) '"Objectivity" in Social Science and Social Policy', in Edward Shils (ed.) Max Weber, The Methodology of the Social Sciences, Ch. 2. New York: Free Press.
79. Weber, Steven (1997) 'Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process', Security Studies 6: 167-79.
80. Weiss, Thomas G. (1995) 'Overcoming the Somalia Syndrome - "Operation Rekindle Hope?"' Global Governance 1(2): 171-87.