Age-Period-Cohort Analysis: New Models, Methods, and Empirical Applications

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis: New Models, Methods, and Empirical Applications

Volumn , Issue , 2016, Pages 1-321

  Yang, Yang ^a   Land, Kenneth C ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA   (United States)

^b DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85125963513     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Book

References (338)

1. Fienberg, S. E., and W.M. Mason. 1979. Identification and estimation of age-period- cohort models in the analysis of discrete archival data. Sociological Methodology 10:1-67.
2. Glenn, N. D. 2005. Cohort analysis. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
3. Jemal, A., K. C. Chu, and R.E. Tarone. 2001. Recent trends in lung cancer mortality in the United States. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 93:277-283.
4. Mason, W. M., and S.E. Fienberg, Eds. 1985. Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem. New York: Springer-Verlag.
5. Tarone, R. E., K. C. Chu, and L.A. Gaudette. 1997. Birth cohort and calendar period trends in breast cancer mortality in the United States and Canada. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 89:251-256.
6. Yang, Y. 2007. Age/period/cohort distinctions. In Encyclopedia of health and aging, ed. K. S. Markides, 20-22. Los Angeles: Sage.
7. Yang, Y. 2009. Age, period, cohort effects. In Encyclopedia of the life course and human development, ed. D. Carr, R. Crosnoe, M. E. Hughes, and A.M. Pienta, 6-10. New York: Gale.
8. Yang, Y. 2010. Aging, cohorts, and methods. In Handbook of aging and the social sciences, ed. R. H. Binstock and L.K. George, 17-30. Burlington, VT: Academic Press.
9. Barker, D. J. P. 1998. In utero programming of chronic disease. Clinical Science 95:115-128.
10. Ben-Shlomo, Y., and D. Kuh. 2002. A life course approach to chronic disease epidemiology: Conceptual models, empirical challenges and interdisciplinary perspectives. International Journal of Epidemiology 31:285-293.
11. Clemmesen, J. 1948. I. Results from statistical research. British Journal of Radiology 21:583-590.
12. Crimmins, E. M., S. L. Reynolds, and Y. Saito. 1999. Trends in health and ability to work among the older working-age population. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 54B:S31-S40.
13. Derrick, V. P. A. 1927. Observations on (1) errors on age on the population statistics of England and Wales and (2) the changes in mortality indicated by the national records. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 58:117-159.
14. Elder, G. H., Jr. 1974. Children of the Great Depression: Social change in life experience. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
15. Finch, C. E., and E.M. Crimmins. 2004. Inflammatory exposure and historical change in human life-spans. Science 305:1736-1739.
16. Fogel, R. W., and D.L. Costa. 1997. A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs. Demography 34:49-66.
17. Freedman, V. A., and L.G. Martin 1998. Understanding trends in functional limitations among older Americans. American Journal of Public Health 88:1457-1462.
18. Frost, W. H. 1940. The age selection of mortality from tuberculosis in successive decades. The MilbankMemorial Fund Quarterly, 18(1, Jan., 1940):61-66.
19. Hamil-Luker, J., K. C. Land, and J. Blau. 2004. Diverse trajectories of cocaine use through early adulthood among rebellious and socially conforming youth. Social Science Research 33:300-321.
20. Hobcraft, J., J. Menken, and S. Preston. 1982. Age, period, and cohort effects in demog-raphy: A review. Population Index 48:4-43.
21. Hughes, M.E., and A.M. O'Rand. 2004. The lives and times of the baby boomers. In R. Farley and J. Haaga (eds.) The American People Census 2000, pp. 224-258.
22. Kasen, S., P. Cohen, H. Chen, and D. Castille. 2003. Depression in adult women: Age changes and cohort effects. American Journal of Public Health 93:2061-2066.
23. Kermack, W. O., A. G. McKendrick, and P.L. McKinlay. 1934. Death-rates in Great Britain and Sweden: Expression of specific mortality rates as products of two factors, and some consequences thereof. Journal of Hygiene 34:433-457.
24. MacMahon, B. 1957. Breast cancer at menopausal ages: An explanation of observed incidence changes. Cancer 10:1037-1044.
25. Riley, M. W. 1987. On the significance of age in sociology. American Sociological Review 52:1-14.
26. Ryder, N. B. 1965. The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. American Sociological Review 30:843-861.
27. Smith, H. L. 2008. Advances in age-period-cohort analysis. Sociological Methods & Research 36:287-296.
28. Yang, Y. 2007. Is old age depressing? Growth trajectories and cohort variations in late- life depression. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 48:16-32.
29. Alwin, D. F. 1991. Family of origin and cohort differences in verbal ability. American Sociological Review 56:625-638.
30. Alwin, D. F., and R.J. McCammon. 1999. Aging versus cohort interpretations of intercohort differences in GSS vocabulary scores. American Sociological Review 64:272-286.
31. Arbeev, K. G., S. V. Ukraintseva, L. S. Arbeeva, and A.I. Yashin. 2005. Decline in human cancer incidence rates at old ages: Age-period-cohort considerations. Demographic Research 12:273-300.
32. Bosworth, H. B., I. C. Siegler, B. H. Brummett, et al. 1999. The association between self-rated health and mortality in a well-characterized sample of coronary artery disease patients. Medical Care 37:1226-1236.
33. Burns, D. M., L. Lee, L. Z. Shen, et al. 1998. Cigarette smoking behavior in the United States, In Changes in cigarette-related disease risk and their implications for prevention and control, ed. D. M. Burns, L. Garfinkel, and J.M. Samet, 113-304. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health.
34. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2010. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Hyattsville, MD: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/nhanes_questionnaires.htm.
35. Chen, F., Y. Yang, and G. Liu. 2010. Social change and socioeconomic disparities in health over the life course in China: A cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 75:126-150.
36. Davis, J. A., T. W. Smith, and P.V. Marsden. 2005. General Social Surveys, 1972-2004 [Cumulative File] [Computer file], 2nd ICPSR version. Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, producer. Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, distributors.
37. Flegal, K. M., M. D. Carroll, C. L. Ogden, and C.L. Johnson. 2002. Prevalence and trends in obesity among U.S. adults, 1999-2000. Journal of the American Medical Association 288:1723-1727.
38. Frank, S. A. 2007. Dynamics of cancer: Incidence, inheritance, and evolution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
39. Freedman, D. S., L. K. Khan, M. K. Serdula, D. A. Galuska, and W.H. Dietz. 2002. Trends and correlates of class 3 obesity in the United States from 1990 through 2000. Journal of the American Medical Association 288:1758-1761.
40. Glass, A. G., J. V. Lacey Jr., J. D. Carreon, and R.N. Hoover. 2007. Breast cancer incidence, 1980-2006: Combined roles of menopausal hormone therapy, screening mammography, and estrogen receptor status. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 99:1152-1161.
41. Glenn, N. D. 1994. Television watching, newspaper reading, and cohort differences in verbal ability. Sociology of Education 67:216-230.
42. Glenn, N. D. 1999. Further discussion of the evidence for an intercohort decline in education-adjusted vocabulary. American Sociological Review 64:267-271.
43. House, J. S., P. M. Lantz, and P. Herd. 2005. Continuity and change in the social strati-fication of aging and health over the life course: Evidence from a nationally rep-resentative longitudinal study from 1986 to 2001/2002 (Americans' Changing Lives Study). Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 60B:S15-S26.
44. Hughes, M. E., and A.M. O'Rand. 2004. The American People Census 2000: The lives and times of the baby boomers. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
45. Idler, E. L., and Y. Benyamini. 1997. Self-rated health and mortality: A review of twenty-seven community studies. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 38:21-37.
46. Jemal, A., M. J. Thun, L. A. G. Ries, et al. 2008. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975-2005, featuring trends in lung cancer, tobacco use, and tobacco control. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 100:1672-1694.
47. Jemal, A., E. Ward, Y. Hao, and M. Thun. 2005. Trends in the leading causes of death in the United States, 1970-2002. Journal of the American Medical Association 294:1255-1259.
48. Jemal, A., E. Ward, and M.J. Thun. 2007. Recent trends in breast cancer incidence rates by age and tumor characteristics among U.S. women. Breast Cancer Research 9:R28.
49. Lauderdale, D. S. 2001. Education and survival: Birth cohort, period, and age effects. Demography 38:551-561.
50. Lynch, S. M. 2003. Cohort and life-course patterns in the relationship between education and health: A hierarchical approach. Demography 40:309-331.
51. Manton, K. G., I. Akushevich, and J. Kravchenko. 2009. Cancer mortality and morbidity patterns in the U.S. population: An interdisciplinary approach. New York: Springer-Verlag.
52. Marshall, E. 2011. Cancer research and the $90 billion metaphor. Science 331:1540-1541.
53. Mason, W. M., and S.E. Fienberg, Ed. 1985. Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem. New York: Springer-Verlag.
54. Mitnitski, A. B., A. J. Mogilner, C. MacKnight, and K. Rockwood. 2002. The mortality rate as a function of accumulated deficits in a frailty index. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development 123:1457-1460.
55. Mitnitski, A. B., X. Song, and K. Rockwood. 2004. The estimation of relative fitness and frailty in community-dwelling older adults using self-report data. Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences 59A:M627-M632.
56. Mokdad, A. H., B. A. Bowman, E. S. Ford, F. Vinicor, J. S. Marks, and J.P. Koplan. 2001. The continuing epidemics of obesity and diabetes in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association 286:1195-1200.
57. O'Brien, R. M. 2000. Age period cohort characteristic models. Social Science Research 29:123-139.
58. Ogden, C. L., K. M. Flegal, M. D. Carroll, and C.L. Johnson. 2002. Prevalence and trends in overweight among U.S. children and adolescents, 1999-2000. Journal of the American Medical Association 288:1728-1732.
59. Osmond, C. 1985. Using age, period and cohort models to estimate future mortality rates. International Journal of Epidemiology 14:124-129.
60. Pampel, F. C. 2005. Diffusion, cohort change, and social patterns of smoking. Social Science Research 34:117-139.
61. Pompei, F., and R. Wilson. 2001. Age distribution of cancer: The incidence turnover at old age. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 7:1619-1650.
62. Preston, S. H., P. Heuveline, and M. Guillot. 2001. Demography: Measuring and modeling population processes. Malden, MA: Blackwell.
63. Radloff, L. S. 1977. The CES-D Scale: A self-report depression scale for research in the general population. Applied Psychological Measurement 1:385-401.
64. Reither, E. N., R. M. Hauser, and Y. Yang. 2009. Do birth cohorts matter? Age-period- cohort analyses of the obesity epidemic in the United States. Social Science & Medicine 69:1439-1448.
65. Riley, M. W. 1987. On the significance of age in sociology. American Sociological Review 52:1-14.
66. Schoenfeld, D. E., L. C. Malmrose, D. G. Blazer, D. T. Gold, and T.E. Seeman. 1994. Self-rated health and mortality in the high-functioning elderly-A closer look at health individuals: MacArthur Field Study of Successful Aging. Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences 49:M109-M115.
67. Smith, R. A., V. Cokkinides, and O.W. Brawley. 2008. Cancer screening in the United States, 2008: A review of current American Cancer Society guidelines and cancer screening issues. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 58:161-179.
68. Tonry, M. L., L. E. Ohlin, and D.P. Farrington. 1991. Human development and criminal behavior: New ways of advancing knowledge. New York: Springer-Verlag.
69. Vaupel, J. W., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. 1979. The impact of heterogeneity in indi-vidual frailty on the dynamics of mortality. Demography 16:439-454.
70. Wang, H., and S.H. Preston. 2009. Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106:393-398.
71. Wilson, J. A., and W.R. Gove. 1999. The intercohort decline in verbal ability: Does it exist? American Sociological Review 64:253-266.
72. Yang, Y. 2007. Is old age depressing? Growth trajectories and cohort variations in late- life depression. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 48:16-32.
73. Yang, Y. 2008. Social inequalities in happiness in the United States, 1972 to 2004: An age-period-cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 73:204-226.
74. Yang, Y., and M. Kozloski. 2012. Post-reproductive change in sex gap in total and cause-specific mortality. Annals of Epidemiology 22:94-103.
75. Yang, Y., and L.C. Lee. 2009. Sex and race disparities in health: Cohort variations in life course patterns. Social Forces 87:2093-2124.
76. Yang, Y., and L.C. Lee. 2010. Dynamics and heterogeneity in the process of human frailty and aging: Evidence from the U.S. older adult population. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 65B:246-255.
77. Agresti, A. 1996. An introduction to categorical data analysis. New York: Wiley-Interscience.
78. Box, G. E. P. 1979. Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building. In Robustness in statistics: Proceedings of a workshop, ed. R. L. Launer and G.N. Wilkinson, 201-236. New York: Academic Press.
79. Clayton, D., and E. Schifflers. 1987a. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. I: Age-period and age-cohort models. Statistics in Medicine 6:449-467.
80. Clayton, D., and E. Schifflers. 1987b. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age-period-cohort models. Statistics in Medicine 6:469-481.
81. Duncan, O. D. 1966. Path analysis: Sociological examples. American Journal of Sociology 72:1-16.
82. Fienberg, S. E., and W.M. Mason. 1979. Identification and estimation of age-period- cohort models in the analysis of discrete archival data. Sociological Methodology 10:1-67.
83. Fienberg, S. E., and W.M. Mason. 1985. Specification and implementation of age, period, and cohort models. In Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem, ed. W. M. Mason and S.E. Fienberg, 45-88. New York: Springer-Verlag.
84. Fu, W. J. 1998. Penalized regressions: The bridge versus the lasso. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 7:397-416.
85. Fu, W. J. 2000. Ridge estimator in singular design with application to age-period- cohort analysis of disease rates. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods 29:263-278.
86. Fu, W. J. 2008. A smoothing cohort model in age-period-cohort analysis with applications to homicide arrest rates and lung cancer mortality rates. Sociological Methods & Research 36:327-361.
87. Glenn, N. D. 1976. Cohort analysts' futile quest: Statistical attempts to separate age, period and cohort effects. American Sociological Review 41:900-904.
88. Glenn, N. D. 1989. A caution about mechanical solutions to the identification problem in cohort analysis: Comment on Sasaki and Suzuki. American Journal of Sociology 95:754-761.
89. Glenn, N. D. 2005. Cohort Analysis. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
90. Hobcraft, J., J. Menken, and S. Preston. 1982. Age, period, and cohort effects in demog-raphy: A review. Population Index 48:4-43.
91. Holford, T. R. 1983. The estimation of age, period and cohort effects for vital rates. Biometrics 39:311-324.
92. Holford, T. R. 1991. Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Annual Review of Public Health 12:425-457.
93. Holford, T. R. 2005. Age-period-cohort analysis. In Encyclopedia of biostatistics, ed. P. Armitage and T. Colton, 82-99. Hoboken: Wiley.
94. Kupper, L. L., J. M. Janis, A. Karmous, and B.G. Greenberg. 1985. Statistical age-period- cohort analysis: A review and critique. Journal of Chronic Diseases 38:811-830.
95. Mason, K. O., W. M. Mason, H. H. Winsborough, and W.K. Poole. 1973. Some meth-odological issues in cohort analysis of archival data. American Sociological Review 38:242-258.
96. Mason, W. M., and S.E. Fienberg, ed. 1985. Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem. New York: Springer-Verlag.
97. Mason, W. M., K. O. Mason, and H.H. Winsborough. 1976. Reply to Glenn. American Sociological Review 41:904-905.
98. Mason, W. M., and H.L. Smith. 1985. Age-period-cohort analysis and the study of deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis. In Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem, ed. W. M. Mason and S.E. Fienberg, 151-228. New York: Springer-Verlag.
99. Mason, W. M., and N.H. Wolfinger. 2002. Cohort analysis. In International encyclopedia of the social and behavioral sciences, ed. N. J. Smelser and P.B. Baltes, 2189-2194. New York: Elsevier.
100. McCullagh, P., and J.A. Nelder. 1989. Generalized linear models. 2nd ed. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
101. McCulloch, C. E., and S.R. Searle. 2001. Generalized, linear, and mixed models. New York: Wiley-Interscience.
102. Nakamura, T. 1982. A Bayesian cohort model for standard cohort table analysis. Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 29:77-97.
103. Nakamura, T. 1986. Bayesian cohort models for general cohort table analyses. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 38:353-370.
104. Nelder, J. A., and R.W. M. Wedderburn. 1972. Generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 135:370-384.
105. O'Brien, R. M., K. Hudson, and J. Stockard. 2008. A mixed model estimation of age, period, and cohort effects. Sociological Methods & Research 36:402-428.
106. O'Brien, R. M., J. Stockard, and L. Isaacson. 1999. The enduring effects of cohort characteristics on age-specific homicide rates, 1960-1995. American Journal of Sociology 104:1061-1095.
107. Osmond, C. 1985. Using age, period and cohort models to estimate future mortality rates. International Journal of Epidemiology 14:124-129.
108. Osmond, C., and M.J. Gardner. 1989. Age, period, and cohort models: Nonoverlapping cohorts don't resolve the identification problem. American Journal of Epidemiology 129:31-35.
109. Pavalko, E. K., F. Gong, and J.S. Long. 2007. Women's work, cohort change, and health. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 48:352-368.
110. Pearl, J. 2000. Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference. New York: Cambridge University Press.
111. Preston, S. H., P. Heuveline, and M. Guillot. 2001. Demography: Measuring and modeling population processes. Malden, MA: Blackwell.
112. Preston, S., and H. Wang. 2006. Sex mortality differences in the United States: The role of cohort smoking patterns. Demography 43:631-646.
113. Robertson, C., and P. Boyle. 1998. Age-period-cohort analysis of chronic disease rates. I: Modelling approach. Statistics in Medicine 17:1305-1323.
114. Robertson, C., S. Gandini, and P. Boyle. 1999. Age-period-cohort models: A comparative study of available methodologies. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 52:569-583.
115. Rodgers, W. L. 1982. Estimable functions of age, period, and cohort effects. American Sociological Review 47:774-787.
116. Sasaki, M., and T. Suzuki. 1987. Changes in religious commitment in the United States, Holland, and Japan. American Journal of Sociology 92:1055-1076.
117. Schoen, R. 1970. The geometric mean of the age-specific death rates as a summary index of mortality. Demography 7:317-324.
118. Smith, H. L. 2008. Advances in age-period-cohort analysis. Sociological Methods & Research 36:287-296.
119. Smith, H. L., W. M. Mason, and S.E. Fienberg. 1982. Estimable functions of age, period, and cohort effects: More chimeras of the age-period-cohort accounting framework: Comment on Rodgers. American Sociological Review 47:787-793.
120. Tarone, R. E., and K.C. Chu. 1992. Implications of birth cohort patterns in interpreting trends in breast cancer rates. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 84:1402-1410.
121. Winship, C., and D.J. Harding. 2008. A mechanism-based approach to the identification of age-period-cohort models. Sociological Methods & Research 36:362-401.
122. Yang, Y. 2006. Bayesian inference for hierarchical age-period-cohort models of repeated cross-section survey data. Sociological Methodology 36:39-74.
123. Yang, Y. 2007. Age/period/cohort distinctions. In Encyclopedia of health and aging, ed. K. S. Markides, 20-22. Los Angeles: Sage.
124. Yang, Y. 2008a. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality: Age, period, and cohort variations. Demography 45:387-416
125. Yang, Y. 2008b. Social inequalities in happiness in the United States, 1972 to 2004: An age-period-cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 73:204-226.
126. Yang, Y. 2009. Age, period, cohort effects. In Encyclopedia of the life course and human development, ed. D. Carr, R. Crosnoe, M. E. Hughes, and A.M. Pienta, 6-10. New York: Gale.
127. Yang, Y., W. J. Fu, and K.C. Land. 2004. A methodological comparison of age-period- cohort models: The intrinsic estimator and conventional generalized linear models. Sociological Methodology 34:75-110.
128. Yang, Y., and K.C. Land. 2006. A mixed models approach to the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys, with an application to data on trends in verbal test scores. Sociological Methodology 36:75-97.
129. Yang, Y., and K.C. Land. 2008. Age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys: Fixed or random effects? Sociological Methods & Research 36:297-326.
130. Yang, Y., S. Schulhofer-Wohl, W. J. Fu, and K.C. Land. 2008. The intrinsic estimator for age-period-cohort analysis: What it is and how to use it. American Journal of Sociology 113:1697-1736.
131. Alwin, D. F., and R.J. McCammon. 1999. Aging versus cohort interpretations of intercohort differences in GSS vocabulary scores. American Sociological Review 64:272-286.
132. Casella, G., and R.L. Berger. 2001. Statistical inference. 2nd ed. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press.
133. Clayton, D., and E. Schifflers. 1987. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age-period-cohort models. Statistics in Medicine 6:469-481.
134. Frenk, S. M., Y. Yang, and K.C. Land. 2012. Assessing the significance of cohort and period effects in hierarchical age-period-cohort models with applications to verbal test scores and voter turnout in U.S. Presidential elections. Under review.
135. Fu, W. J. 2000. Ridge estimator in singular design with application to age-period- cohort analysis of disease rates. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods 29:263-278.
136. Fu, W. J. 2008. A smoothing cohort model in age-period-cohort analysis with applications to homicide arrest rates and lung cancer mortality rates. Sociological Methods and Research 36:327-361.
137. Fu, W. J., and P. Hall. 2006. Asymptotic properties of estimators in age-period-cohort analysis. Statistics & Probability Letters 76:1925-1929.
138. Fu, W. J., P. Hall, and T. Rohan. 2004. Age-period-cohort analysis: Structure of estimators, estimability, sensitivity, and asymptotics. Michigan State University, Department of Epidemiology. Research paper.
139. Fu, W. J., K. C. Land, and Y. Yang. 2011. On the intrinsic estimator and constrained esti-mators in age-period-cohort models. Sociological Methods & Research 40:453-466.
140. Girosi, F., and G. King. 2008. Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
141. Glenn, N. D. 1999. Further discussion of the evidence for an intercohort decline in education-adjusted vocabulary. American Sociological Review 64:267-271.
142. Glenn, N. D. 2005. Cohort analysis. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
143. Hoerl, A. E., and Kennard, R. W. 1970a. Ridge regression: Applications to nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:69-82.
144. Hoerl, A. E., and Kennard, R. W. 1970b. Ridge regression: Biased estimation for non-orthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55-67.
145. Holford, T. R. 1985. An alternative approach to statistical age-period-cohort analysis. Journal of Chronic Diseases 38:831-836.
146. Holford, T. R. 1991. Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Annual Review of Public Health 12:425-457.
147. Holford, T. R. 2005. Age-period-cohort analysis. In Encyclopedia of biostatistics, ed. P. Armitage and T. Colton, 82-99. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
148. Jiang, J. 2007. Linear and generalized linear mixed models and their applications. New York: Springer-Verlag.
149. Kupper, L. L., J. M. Janis, A. Karmous, and B.G. Greenberg. 1985. Statistical age-period- cohort analysis: A review and critique. Journal of Chronic Diseases 38:811-830.
150. Kupper, L. L., J. M. Janis, I. A. Salama, C. N. Yoshizawa, B. G. Greenberg, and H.H. Winsborough. 1983. Age-period-cohort analysis: An illustration of the problems in assessing interaction in one observation per cell data. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods 12:201-217.
151. Marion, J. B., and S.T. Thornton. 1995. Classical dynamics of particles and systems. 4th ed. Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace College.
152. Mason, K. O., W. M. Mason, H. H. Winsborough, and W. Kenneth Poole. 1973. Some methodological issues in cohort analysis of archival data. American Sociological Review 38:242-258.
153. Mason, W. M., and H.L. Smith. 1985. Age-period-cohort analysis and the study of deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis. In Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem, ed. W. M. Mason and S.E. Fienberg, 151-228. New York: Springer-Verlag.
154. McCullagh, P., and J.A. Nelder. 1989. Generalized linear models. 2nd ed. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
155. McCulloch, C. E., and S.R. Searle. 2001. Generalized, linear, and mixed models. New York: Wiley-Interscience.
156. Miech, R., and S. Koester. 2012. Trends in U.S. past-year marijuana use from 19852009: An age-period-cohort analysis. Drug and Alcohol Dependence 124:259-267.
157. Miech, R., S. Koester, and B. Dorsey-Holliman. 2011. Increasing U.S. mortality due to accidental poisoning: The role of the baby boom cohort. Addiction 106:806-815.
158. Mosteller, F., and J.W. Tukey. 1977. Exploratory data analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
159. O'Brien, R. M. 2000. Age Period cohort characteristic models. Social Science Research 29:123-139.
160. O'Brien, R. M. 2011a. Constrained estimators and age-period-cohort models. Sociological Methods and Research 40:419-452.
161. O'Brien, R. M. 2011b. Intrinsic estimators as constrained estimators in age-period- cohort accounting models. Sociological Methods and Research 40:467-470.
162. Pullum, T. W. 1978. Parametrizing age, period, and cohort effects: An application to U.S. delinquency rates, 1964-1973. Sociological Methodology 9:116-140.
163. Pullum, T. W. 1980. Separating age, period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920-1970. Social Science Research 9:225-244.
164. Raftery, A. E. 1986. Choosing models for cross-classifications. American Sociological Review 51:145-146.
165. Raftery, A. E. 1995. Bayesian model selection in social research. Sociological Methodology 25:111-164.
166. Rao, C. R. 1970. Estimation of heteroscedastic variances in linear models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 65:161-172.
167. Rao, C. R. 1971. Estimation of variance and covariance components-MINQUE theory. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 1:257-275.
168. Rao, C. R. 1972. Estimation of variance and covariance components in linear models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 67:112-115.
169. Robertson, C., S. Gandini, and P. Boyle. 1999. Age-period-cohort models: A comparative study of available methodologies. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 52:569-583.
170. Rodgers, W. L. 1982a. Estimable functions of age, period, and cohort effects. American Sociological Review 47:774-787.
171. Rodgers, W. L. 1982b. Reply to comment by Smith, Mason, and Fienberg. American Sociological Review 47:793-796.
172. Schwadel, P. 2011. Age, period, and cohort effects on religious activities and beliefs. Social Science Research 40:181-192.
173. Searle, S. R. 1971. Linear models. New York: Wiley.
174. Sen, A., and M. Srivastava. 1990. Regression analysis: Theory, methods and applications. New York: Springer-Verlag.
175. Smith, H. L., W. M. Mason, and S.E. Fienberg. 1982. Estimable functions of age, period, and cohort effects: More chimeras of the age-period-cohort accounting framework: Comment on Rodgers. American Sociological Review 47:787-793.
176. Tu, Y.-K., N. Krämer, and W.-C. Lee. 2012. Addressing the identification problem in age-period-cohort analysis: A tutorial on the use of partial least squares and principal components analysis. Epidemiology 23:583-593.
177. Wilson, J. A., and W.R. Gove. 1999. The intercohort decline in verbal ability: Does it exist? American Sociological Review 64:253-266.
178. Winkler, R., J. Huck, and K. Warnke. 2009. Deer hunter demography: Age, period, and cohort analysis of trends in hunter participation in Wisconsin. University of Wisconsin-Madison: Applied Population Lab. Retrieved from http://paa2009. princeton.edu/papers/91178
179. Yang, Y. 2006. Bayesian inference for hierarchical age-period-cohort models of repeated cross-section survey data. Sociological Methodology 36:39-74.
180. Yang, Y. 2008. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960-1999: Age, period, and cohort variations. Demography 45:387-416.
181. Yang, Y., W. J. Fu, and K.C. Land. 2004. A methodological comparison of age-period- cohort models: The intrinsic estimator and conventional generalized linear models. Sociological Methodology 34:75-110.
182. Yang, Y., and K.C. Land. 2006. A mixed models approach to the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys, with an application to data on trends in verbal test scores. Sociological Methodology 36:75-97.
183. Yang, Y., S. Schulhofer-Wohl, W. J. Fu, and K.C. Land. 2008. The intrinsic estimator for age-period-cohort analysis: What it is and how to use it. American Journal of Sociology 113:1697-1736.
184. Yang, Y., S. Schulhofer-Wohl, and K.C. Land. 2007. A simulation study of intrinsic estimator for age-period-cohort analysis. Presented at the annual meetings of the American Sociological Association, New York, August.
185. Box, G. E. P., G. M. Jenkins, and G.C. Reinsel. 1994. Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. Vol. 3. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
186. Bray, F., and B. Mnller. 2006. Predicting the future burden of cancer. Nature Reviews Cancer 6:63-74.
187. Clayton, D., and E. Schifflers. 1987. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age-period-cohort models. Statistics in Medicine 6:469-481.
188. Finch, C. E., and E.M. Crimmins. 2004. Inflammatory exposure and historical change in human life-spans. Science 305:1736-1739.
189. Fogel, R. W. 2004. Health, nutrition, and economic growth. Economic Development and Cultural Change 52:643-658.
190. Gardner, M. J., and C. Osmond. 1984. Interpretation of time trends in disease rates in the presence of generation effects. Statistics in Medicine 3:113-130.
191. Guillot, M. 2006. Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal. Demographic Research 14:1-26.
192. Harris, J. E. 1983. Cigarette smoking among successive birth cohorts of men and women in the United States during 1900-80. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 71:473-479
193. Jemal, A., K. C. Chu, and R.E. Tarone. 2001. Recent trends in lung cancer mortality in the United States. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 93:277-283.
194. Jemal, A., M. J. Thun, L. A. G. Ries, et al. 2008 Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975-2005, featuring trends in lung cancer, tobacco use, and tobacco control. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 100:1672-1694.
195. Kupper, L. L., J. M. Janis, A. Karmous, and B.G. Greenberg. 1985. Statistical age-period- cohort analysis: A review and critique. Journal of Chronic Diseases 38:811-830.
196. Lee, R. D., and L.R. Carter. 1992. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87:659-671.
197. Lee, W. C., and R.S. Lin. 1996. Autoregressive age-period-cohort models. Statistics in Medicine 15:273-281.
198. Lopez, A. D. 1995. The lung cancer epidemic in developed countries. In Adult mor-tality in developed countries: From description to explanation, ed. A. D. Lopez, G. Caselli, and T. Valkonen, 111-143. New York: Oxford.
199. Manton, K. G. 2000. Gender differences in the cross-sectional and cohort age depen-dence of cause-specific mortality: The United States, 1962 to 1995. Journal of Gender-Specific Medicine 3:47-54.
200. Manton, K. G., I. Akushevich, and J. Kravchenko. 2009. Cancer mortality and morbidity patterns in the U.S. population: An interdisciplinary approach. New York: Springer-Verlag.
201. McNown, R., and A. Rogers. 1989. Forecasting mortality: A parameterized time series approach. Demography 26:645-660.
202. Moller, B., H. Fekjr, T. Hakulinen, et al. 2003. Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries: Empirical comparison of different approaches. Statistics in Medicine 22:2751-2766.
203. Olshansky, S. J., B. A. Carnes, and M.S. Mandell. 2009. Future trends in human longevity: Implications for investments, pensions and the global economy. Pensions: An International Journal 14:149-163.
204. Osmond, C. 1985. Using age, period and cohort models to estimate future mortality rates. International Journal of Epidemiology 14:124-129.
205. Pampel, F. C. 2005. Diffusion, cohort change, and social patterns of smoking. Social Science Research 34:117-139.
206. Reither, E. N., S. J. Olshansky, and Y. Yang. 2011. New forecasting methodology indicates more disease and earlier mortality ahead for today's younger Americans. Health Affairs 30:1562-1568.
207. Shibuya, K., M. Inoue, and A.D. Lopez. 2005. Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries. International Journal of Cancer 117:476-485.
208. Tarone, R., and K. Chu. 2000. Age-period-cohort analyses of breast-, ovarian-, endometrial- and cervical-cancer mortality rates for Caucasian women in the USA. Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics 5:221-231.
209. Tarone, R. E., K. C. Chu, and L.A. Gaudette. 1997. Birth cohort and calendar period trends in breast cancer mortality in the United States and Canada. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 89:251-256.
210. Wu, C. F. J. 1986. Jackknife, bootstrap and other resampling methods in regression analysis. The Annals of Statistics 14:1261-1295.
211. Yang, Y. 2008. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960-1999: Age, period, and cohort variations. Demography 45:387-416.
212. Zang, E. A., and E.L. Wynder. 1996. Differences in lung cancer risk between men and women: Examination of the evidence. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 88:183-192.
213. Alwin, D. F. 1991. Family of origin and cohort differences in verbal ability. American Sociological Review 56:625-638.
214. Alwin, D. F. 2009. History, cohorts, and cognitive aging. In Aging and cognition: Research methodologies and empirical advances, ed. H. B. Bosworth and C. Hertzog, 9-38. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
215. Alwin, D. F., and R.J. McCammon. 1999. Aging versus cohort interpretations of intercohort differences in GSS vocabulary scores. American Sociological Review 64:272-286.
216. Alwin, D. F., and R.J. McCammon. 2001. Aging, cohorts, and verbal ability. The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 56:S151-S161.
217. Baltagi, B. H. 1995. Econometric analysis of panel data. New York: Wiley.
218. Campbell, J. R., C. M. Hombo, and J. Mazzeo. 2000. NAEP 1999 trends in academic progress: Three decades of student performance. Education Statistics Quarterly 2:31-36.
219. Demidenko, E. 2004. Mixed models: Theory and applications. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
220. Duchateau, L., and P. Janssen. 1999. Small vaccination experiments with binary outcome: The paradox of increasing power with decreasing sample size and/or increasing imbalance. Biometrical Journal 41:583-600.
221. Efron, B., and C.N. Morris. 1975. Data analysis using Stein's estimator and its gener-alizations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 70:311-319.
222. Frenk, S. M., Y. Yang, and K.C. Land. 2012. Assessing the significance of cohort and period effects in hierarchical age-period-cohort models with applications to verbal test scores and voter turnout in U.S. presidential elections. Under review.
223. Glenn, N. D. 1994. Television watching, newspaper reading, and cohort differences in verbal ability. Sociology of Education 67:216-230.
224. Glenn, N. D. 1999. Further discussion of the evidence for an intercohort decline in education-adjusted vocabulary. American Sociological Review 64:267-271.
225. Goldstein, H. 2003. Multilevel statistical models. London: Arnold.
226. Greene, W. H. 2003. Econometric analysis. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
227. Hausman, J. A., and W.E. Taylor. 1981. Panel data and unobservable individual effects. Econometrica 49:1377-1398.
228. Hedges, L. V., and A. Nowell. 1995. Sex differences in mental test scores, variability, and numbers of high-scoring individuals. Science 269:41-45.
229. Hobcraft, J., J. Menken, and S. Preston. 1982. Age, period, and cohort effects in demog-raphy: A review. Population Index 48:4-43.
230. Hox, J. J., and I.G. G. Kreft. 1994. Multilevel analysis methods. Sociological Methods & Research 22:283-299.
231. Jiang, J. 2007. Linear and generalized linear mixed models and their applications. New York: Springer-Verlag.
232. McCullagh, P., and J.A. Nelder. 1989. Generalized linear models. New York: Chapman and Hall.
233. Littell, R. C., G. A. Milliken, W. W. Stroup, R. D. Wolfinger, and O. Schabenberrger. 2006. SAS for mixed models. Cary, NC: SAS Institute.
234. Longford, N. T. 1993. Random coefficient models. New York: Oxford University Press.
235. Lynch, S. M. 2003. Cohort and life-course patterns in the relationship between education and health: A hierarchical approach. Demography 40:309-331.
236. Mason, K. O., W. M. Mason, H. H. Winsborough, and W.K. Poole. 1973. Some meth-odological issues in cohort analysis of archival data. American Sociological Review 38:242-258.
237. Raudenbush, S. W., and A.S. Bryk. 2002. Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
238. Reither, E. N., R. M. Hauser, and Y. Yang. 2009. Do birth cohorts matter? Age-period- cohort analyses of the obesity epidemic in the United States. Social Science & Medicine 69:1439-1448.
239. Smith, H. L. 2004. Response: Cohort analysis redux. Sociological Methodology 34:111-119.
240. Snijders, T., and R. Bosker. 1999. Multilevel analysis: An introduction to basic and advanced multilevel modeling. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
241. White, H. 1980. A heteroscedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroscedasticity. Econometrica 48:817-838.
242. Wilson, J. A., and W.R. Gove. 1999a. The age-period-cohort conundrum and verbal ability: Empirical relationships and their interpretation: Reply to Glenn and to Alwin and McCammon. American Sociological Review 64:287-302.
243. Wilson, J. A., and W.R. Gove. 1999b. The intercohort decline in verbal ability: Does it exist? American Sociological Review 64:253-266.
244. Yang, Y. 2006. Bayesian inference for hierarchical age-period-cohort models of repeated cross-section survey data. Sociological Methodology 36:39-74.
245. Yang, Y., and K.C. Land. 2006. A mixed models approach to the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys, with an application to data on trends in verbal test scores. Sociological Methodology 36:75-97.
246. Yang, Y., and K.C. Land. 2008. Age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys: Fixed or random effects? Sociological Methods & Research 36:297-326.
247. Aitkin, M. 1987. Modeling variance heterogeneity in normal regression using GLIM. Applied Statistics 36:332-339.
248. Bashir, S. A., and J. Esteve. 2001. Projecting cancer incidence and mortality using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics 6:287-296.
249. Blanchflower, D. G., and A.J. Oswald. 2004. Well-being over time in Britain and the USA. Journal of Public Economics 88:1359-1386.
250. Blau, P. M., and O.D. Duncan. 1966. The American occupational structure. New York: Wiley.
251. Carlin, B. P., and T.A. Louis. 2000. Bayes and empirical Bayes methods for data analysis. 2nd ed. New York: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
252. Chen, F., Y. Yang, and G. Liu. 2010. Social change and socioeconomic disparity in health over the life course in China: A cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 75:126-150.
253. Chlebowski, R. T., Z. Chen, G. L. Anderson, et al. 2005. Ethnicity and breast cancer: Factors influencing differences in incidence and outcome. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 97:439-448.
254. Davis, J. A. 1984. New money, and old man/lady and "two's company": Subjective welfare in the NORC General Social Surveys, 1972-1982. Social Indicators Research 15:319-350.
255. Demidenko, E. 2004. Mixed models: Theory and applications. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
256. Di Tella, R., R. J. MacCulloch, and A.J. Oswald. 2003. The macroeconomics of happiness. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85:809-827.
257. Draper, D. 2002. Bayesian hierarchical modeling. New York: Springer-Verlag.
258. Easterlin, R. A. 1987. Birth and fortune: The impact of numbers on personal welfare. Chicago: University of Chicago.
259. Easterlin, R. A. 2001. Life Cycle Welfare: Trends and Differences. Journal of Happiness Studies 2:1-12.
260. Fox, J. 2008. Applied regression analysis and generalized linear models. Los Angeles: Sage.
261. Gelfand, A. E., S. E. Hills, A. Racine-Poon, and A.F. M. Smith. 1990. Illustration of Bayesian inference in normal data models using Gibbs sampling. Journal of American Statistical Association 85:972-985.
262. Gelman, A., J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, and D.B. Rubin. 2000. Bayesian data analysis. New York: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
263. Glenn, N. D. 1994. Television watching, newspaper reading, and cohort differences in verbal ability. Sociology of Education 67:216-230.
264. Glenn, N. D. 2005. Cohort analysis. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
265. Guo, X., and B.P. Carlin. 2004. Separate and joint models of longitudinal and event time data using standard computer packages. The American Statistician 58:16-24.
266. Hughes, M., and M.E. Thomas. 1998. The continuing significance of race revisited: A study of race, class, and quality of life in America, 1972 to 1996. American Sociological Review 63:785-795.
267. Hummer, R. A., R. G. Rogers, and I.W. Eberstein. 1998. Sociodemographic approaches to differentials in adult mortality: A review of analytic approaches. Population Development Review 24:553-578.
268. Knorr-Held, L., and E. Rainer. 2001. Projections of lung cancer mortality in West Germany: A case study in Bayesian prediction. Biostatistics 2:109-129.
269. Lauderdale, D. S. 2001. Education and survival: Birth cohort, period, and age effects. Demography 38:551-561.
270. Littell, R. C., G. A. Milliken, W. W. Stroup, R. D. Wolfinger, and O. Schabenberrger. 2006. SAS for mixed models. Cary, NC: SAS Institute.
271. Liu, H., and R.A. Hummer. 2008. Are educational differences in U.S. self-rated health increasing? An examination by gender and race. Social Science & Medicine 67:1898-1906.
272. Lynch, S. M. 2003. Cohort and life-course patterns in the relationship between educa-tion and health: A hierarchical approach. Demography 40:309-331.
273. Meara, E. R., S. Richards, and D.M. Cutler. 2008. The gap gets bigger: Changes in mortality and life expectancy, by education, 1981-2000. Health Affairs 27:350-360.
274. Morris, M., and B. Western. 1999. Inequality in earnings at the close of the twentieth century. Annual Review of Sociology 25:623-657.
275. Nelder, J. A., and Y. Lee. 1991. Generalized linear models for the analysis of Taguchi- type experiments. Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 7:101-120.
276. Preston, S., and H. Wang. 2006. Sex mortality differences in the United States: The role of cohort smoking patterns. Demography 43:631-646.
277. Raudenbush, S. W., and A.S. Bryk. 2002. Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
278. Reither, E. N., R. M. Hauser, and Y. Yang. 2009. Do birth cohorts matter? Age-period- cohort analyses of the obesity epidemic in the United States. Social Science & Medicine 69:1439-1448.
279. Ross, C. E., and C. Wu. 1996. Education, age, and the cumulative advantage in health. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 37:104-120.
280. Ryder, N. B. 1965. The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. American Sociological Review 30:843-861.
281. Smith, H. L. 2004. Cohort Analysis Redux. In Sociological Methodology, Ross M. Stolzenberg (Ed.), vol 34, pp. 111-119. Boston, MA: Blackwell Publishing.
282. Smith, H. L., W. M. Mason, and S.E. Fienberg. 1982. Estimable functions of age, period, and cohort effects: More chimeras of the age-period-cohort accounting framework: Comment on Rodgers. American Sociological Review 47:787-793.
283. Smyth, G. K. 1989. Generalized linear models with varying dispersion. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 51:47-60.
284. Spiegelhalter, D. J., N. G. Best, B. P. Carlin, and A. van der Linde. 2002. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion and rejoinder). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 64:583-639.
285. Weiss, A. R., A. D. Lutkus, B. S. Hildebrant, and M.S. Johnson. 2002. The nation's report card: Geography 2001. Report NCES 2002-484. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
286. Western, B., and D. Bloome. 2009. Variance function regression for studying inequal-ity. Sociological Methodology 39:293-326.
287. Western, B., D. Bloome, and C. Percheski. 2008. Inequality among American families with children, 1975 to 2005. American Sociological Review 73:903-920.
288. Yang, Y. 2006. Bayesian inference for hierarchical age-period-cohort models of repeated cross-section survey data. Sociological Methodology 36:39-74.
289. Yang, Y. 2008. Social inequalities in happiness in the United States, 1972 to 2004: An age-period-cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 73:204-226.
290. Yang, Y., and L.C. Lee. 2009. Sex and race disparities in health: Cohort variations in life course Patterns. Social Forces 87:2093-2124.
291. Zheng, H., Y. Yang, and K.C. Land. 2011. Variance function regression in hierarchical age-period-cohort models: Applications to the study of self-reported health. American Sociological Review 76:955-983.
292. Barker, D. J. P. 1998. In utero programming of chronic disease. Clinical Science 95:115-128.
293. Cabrera, C., K. Wilhelmson, P. Allebeck, H. Wedel, B. Steen, and L. Lissner. 2003. Cohort differences in obesity-related health indicators among 70-year olds with special reference to gender and education. European Journal of Epidemiology 18:883-890.
294. Chen, F., Y. Yang, and G. Liu. 2010. Social change and socioeconomic disparities in health over the life course in China: A cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 75:126-150
295. Crimmins, E. M., S. L. Reynolds, and Y. Saito. 1999. Trends in health and ability to work among the older working-age population. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 54B:S31-S40.
296. Easterlin, R. A. 1987. Birth and fortune: The impact of numbers on personal welfare. Chicago: University of Chicago.
297. Elder, G. H., Jr. 1999. Children of the Great Depression: Social change in life experience. Enlarged 25th anniversary ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
298. Ferraro, K. F., and M.M. Farmer. 1996. Double jeopardy to health hypothesis for African Americans: Analysis and critique. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 37:27-43.
299. Flegal, K. M., M. D. Carroll, C. L. Ogden, and C.L. Johnson. 2002. Prevalence and trends in obesity among U.S. adults, 1999-2000. Journal of the American Medical Association 288:1723-1727.
300. Fogel, R. W. 2004. Health, nutrition, and economic growth. Economic Development and Cultural Change 52:643-658.
301. Haug, M. R., and S.J. Folmar. 1986. Longevity, gender, and life quality. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 27:332-345.
302. House, J. S., P. M. Lantz, and P. Herd. 2005. Continuity and change in the social strati-fication of aging and health over the life course: Evidence from a nationally rep-resentative longitudinal study from 1986 to 2001/2002 (Americans' Changing Lives Study). Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 60B:15-26.
303. House, J. S., J. M. Lepkowski, A. M. Kinney, R. P. Mero, R. C. Kessler, and A.R. Herzog. 1994. The social stratification of aging and health. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 35:213-234.
304. Hughes, M. E., and A.M. O'Rand. 2004. The American People Census 2000: The lives and times of the baby boomers. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
305. Idler, E. L. 1993. Age differences in self-assessments of health: Age changes, cohort differences, or survivorship? Journal of Gerontology 48:S289-S300.
306. Kasen, S., P. Cohen, H. Chen, and D. Castille. 2003. Depression in adult women: Age changes and cohort effects. American Journal of Public Health 93:2061-2066.
307. Link, B. G., and J. Phelan. 1995. Social conditions as fundamental causes of disease. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 35:80-94.
308. Lynch, S. M. 2003. Cohort and life-course patterns in the relationship between education and health: A hierarchical approach. Demography 40:309-331.
309. Merton, R. K. 1968. The Matthew effect in science. Science 159:56-63.
310. Mitnitski, A. B., X. Song, and K. Rockwood. 2004. The estimation of relative fitness and frailty in community-dwelling older adults using self-report data. Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences 59A:M627-M632.
311. Miyazaki, Y., and S.W. Raudenbush. 2000. Tests for linkage of multiple cohorts in an accelerated longitudinal design. Psychological Methods 5:44-63.
312. O'Rand, A. M. 2003. Cumulative advantage theory in aging research. In Economic outcomes in later life: Public policy, health and cumulative advantage, ed. S. Crystal and D. Shea, 14-30. New York: Springer
313. O'Rand, A. M., and J. Hamil-Luker. 2005. Processes of cumulative adversity: Childhood disadvantage and increased risk of heart attack across the life course. The Journals of Gerontology: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 60:S117-S124.
314. Pampel, F. C. 2005. Diffusion, cohort change, and social patterns of smoking. Social Science Research 34:117-139.
315. Popenoe, D. 1993. American family decline, 1960-1990: A review and appraisal. Journal of Marriage and Family 55:527-542.
316. Preston, S. H., M. E. Hill, and G.L. Drevenstedt. 1998. Childhood conditions that predict survival to advanced ages among African-Americans. Social Science & Medicine 47:1231-1246.
317. Raudenbush, S. W., and A.S. Bryk. 2002. Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
318. Reither, E. N., R. M. Hauser, and Y. Yang. 2009. Do birth cohorts matter? Age-period- cohort analyses of the obesity epidemic in the United States. Social Science & Medicine 69:1439-1448.
319. Singer, J. D., and J.B. Willett. 2003. Applied longitudinal data analysis: Modeling change and event occurrence. New York: Oxford University Press.
320. Verbrugge, L. M. 1989. The twain meet: Empirical explanations of sex differences in health and mortality. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 30:282-304.
321. Waite, L. 1995. Does marriage matter? Demography 32:483-507.
322. Williams, D. R. 2005. The health of U.S. racial and ethnic populations. Journal of Gerontology: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 60:S53-S62.
323. Yang, Y. 2007. Is old age depressing? Growth trajectories and cohort variations in late- life depression. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 48:16-32.
324. Yang, Y. 2008. Social inequalities in happiness in the United States, 1972 to 2004: An age-period-cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 73:204-226.
325. Yang, Y. 2010. Aging, cohorts, and methods. In Handbook of aging and the social sciences, ed. R. H. Binstock and L.K. George, 17-30. Burlington, MA: Academic Press.
326. Yang, Y., and L.C. Lee. 2009. Sex and race disparities in health: Cohort variations in life course patterns. Social Forces 87:2093-2124.
327. Yang, Y., and L.C. Lee. 2010. Dynamics and heterogeneity in the process of human frailty and aging: Evidence from the U.S. older adult population. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 65B:246-255.
328. Barker, D. J. P. 1998. In utero programming of chronic disease. Clinical Science 95:115-128.
329. Campbell, C. D., and J.Z. Lee. 2009. Long-term mortality consequences of childhood family context in Liaoning, China, 1749-1909. Social Science & Medicine 68:1641-1648.
330. Finch, C. E., and E.M. Crimmins. 2004. Inflammatory exposure and historical change in human life-spans. Science 305:1736-1739.
331. Frenk, S. M., Y. Yang, and K.C. Land. 2012. Assessing the significance of cohort and period effects in hierarchical age-period-cohort models with applications to verbal test scores and voter turnout in U.S. Presidential elections. Under review.
332. Fu, W. J. 2008. A smoothing cohort model in age-period-cohort analysis with applications to homicide arrest rates and lung cancer mortality rates. Sociological Methods & Research 36:327-361.
333. Hobcraft, J., J. Menken, and S. Preston. 1982. Age, period, and cohort effects in demog-raphy: A review. Population Index 48:4-43.
334. Mason, K. O., W. M. Mason, H. H. Winsborough, and W. Kenneth Poole. 1973. Some methodological issues in cohort analysis of archival data. American Sociological Review 38:242-258.
335. Mason, W. M., and S.E. Fienberg, Ed. 1985. Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem. New York: Springer-Verlag.
336. Ryder, N. B. 1965. The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. American Sociological Review 30:843-861.
337. Schulhofer-Wohl, S., and Y. Yang. 2011. Modeling the evolution of age and cohort effects in social research. Research Department Staff Report 461. Minneapolis, MN: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
338. Zeng, Y., Z. Zhang, T. Xu, et al. 2010. Association of birth weight with health and longterm survival up to middle and old ages in China. Journal of Population Ageing 3:143-159.