Guidance on Good Practice in Conducting Scientific Assessments in Animal Health using Modelling

EFSA Journal

Volumn 7, Issue 12, 2009, Pages

[No Author Info available]

Author keywords

animal health; expert's roles; glossary; model analysis; modelling techniques; Models; operating procedure; standard terminology; transparency

Indexed keywords

EID: 85078378629     PISSN: None     EISSN: 18314732     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2009.1419     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Anderson RM, Jackson HC, May RM, Smith ADM, 1981. Population dynamics of fox rabies in Europe. Nature 289, 765–770.
2. Bailey NTJ, 1982. The Biomathematics of Malaria. Charles Griffin, London.
3. Bolker B, Pacala SW, 1997. Using moment equations to understand stochastically driven spatial pattern formation in ecological systems. Theoretical Population Biology 52, 179–197.
4. Bolker BM, Pacala SW, 1999. Spatial moment equations for plant competition: Understanding spatial strategies and the advantages of short dispersal. The American Naturalist, 153, 575–602.
5. Bolker BM, Pacala SW, Levin SA, 2000. Moment Methods for Ecological Processes in Continuous Space. In: Dieckmann, U, Law, R, Metz, J.A.J. (eds), The Geometry of Ecological Interactions: Simplifying Spatial Complexity. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 388–411.
6. Box GEP, 1979. Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building. In: Launer, R.L, Wilkinson, G.N. (eds), Robustness in statistics. Academic Press, New York.
7. Dahms S, Kreienbrock L, Failing, 1998. Modelle und Modellierungen in der Veterinärepidemiologie-ein weites Feld. In: Deutsche Veterinärmedizinische Gesellschaft (ed.) “Informationsgewinnung und-verarbeitung”. Tagungsberichte der Fachtagung der Fachgruppe Epidemiologie und Dokumentation, 1998, 97–111.
8. Dieckmann U, Law R, 2000. Relaxation Projections and the Method of Moments. In: Dieckmann, U, Law, R, Metz, J.A.J. (eds), The Geometry of Ecological Interactions: Simplifying Spatial Complexity. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 412–455.
9. Dresner M, 2008. Using research projects and qualitative conceptual modeling to increase novice scientists' understanding of ecological complexity. Ecol. Complexity 5, 216–221.
10. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), 2009. Scientific report: Control and eradication of Classic Swine Fever in wild boar and Animal health safety of fresh meat derived from pigs vaccinated against Classic Swine Fever. Annex to The EFSA Journal 932:1–18 and 933:1–16.
11. Eisinger D, Thulke H-H, 2008. Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45, 415–423.
12. Eisinger D, Thulke H-H, Müller T, Selhorst T, 2005. Emergency vacination of rabies under limited resources-combating or containing? BMC Infectious Diseases, 5–10.
13. Fahse L, Wissel C, Grimm V, 1998. Reconciling classical and individual-based approaches in theoretical population ecology: a protocol for extracting population parameters from individual-based models. The American Naturalist, 152, 838–852.
14. Fine PEM, 1982. Background paper. In: Selby, P. (ed.), Influenza Models-Prospects for Development and Use. MTP Press, Boston, 15–85.
15. Garnerin P, Hazout S, Valleron AJ, 1986. Estimation of two epidemiological parameters of fox rabies: the length of incubation period and the dispersion distance of cubs. Ecological Modelling, 33, 123–135.
16. Greiner M, Müller-Graf C, Hiller P, Schrader C, Gervelmeyer A, Ellerbroek L, Appel B, 2007. Expert opinion based modelling of the risk of human infection with H5N1 through the consumption of poultry meat in Germany. Berl. Münch. Tierärztl. Wschr. 120: 3–4, 98–107.
17. Grenfell BT, Dobson AP, 1995. Ecology of infectiuos diseases in natural populations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
18. Grimm V, Berger U, Bastiansen F, Eliassen S, Ginot V, Giske J, Goss-Custard J, Grand T, Heinz S, Huse G, Huth A, Jepsen JU, Jørgensen C, Mooij WM, Müller B, Pe'er G, Piou C, Railsback SF, Robbins AM, Robbins MM, Rossmanith, E, Rüger N, Strand E, Souissi S, Stillman, RA, Vabø, R, Visser, U, DeAngelis DL, 2006. A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecological Modelling, 198, 115–126.
19. Grimm V, Railsback SF, 2005. Individual-Based Modeling and Ecology. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
20. Grimm V, Revilla E, Berger U, Jeltsch F, Mooij WM, Railsback SF, Thulke H-H, Weiner J, Wiegand T, DeAngelis DL, 2005. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology. Science 310, 987–991.
21. Grünbaum D, 1998. Using spatially explicite models to characterize foraging performance in heterogeneous landscapes. The American Naturalist, 151, 97–115.
22. Hall CAS, DeAngelis DL, 1985. Eco-forum: Models in ecology: paradigms found or paradigms lost? Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America. 66: 339–346.
23. Holling CS, 1966. The strategy of building models of complex ecological systems. In: Watt KEF. (eds), Systems analysis in ecology. Academic Press, New York, 195–214.
24. Hudson PJ, Rizzoli A, Grenfell B, Heesterbeek H, Dobson AP, 2002. The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases. Oxford University Press, USA.
25. Hurd HS, Kaneene JB, 1993. The application of simulation models and systems analysis in epidemiology: a review. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 15, 81–99.
26. Källen A, Arcuri, P, Murray JD, 1985. A simple model for the spatial spread and control of rabies. Journal of Theoretocal Biolz, 116, 377–393.
27. King ME, Soskoline CL, 1988. Use of modeling in infectious disease epidemiology. American Journal Epidemiology, 128, 949–961.
28. Klein G, 1998. Sources of power: How people make decisions. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
29. Kramer-Schadt S, Revilla E, Wiegand T, Grimm V, 2007. Patterns for parameters in simulation models. Ecological Modelling 204, 553–556.
30. Law R, Murrell DJ, Dieckmann U, 2003. Population growth in space and time: Spatial logistic equations. Ecology 84, 252–262.
31. Lempert RJ, Popper SW, Bankes SC, 2003. Shaping the next one hundred years-New methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
32. Levin SA, Durrett R, 1996. From individuals to epidemics. Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society B 351, 1615–1621.
33. May RM, 1973. Stability and complexity in model ecosystems. Princeton University Press, Monographs in Population Biology, Princeton.
34. Mollison D, 1995. Epidemic models: their structure and relation to data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
35. OIE (World Organisation for animal health), 2004. Handbook on Import Risk Analysis for Animals and Animal Products, Vol.1.
36. Oreskes N, Shrader-Frechette K, Belitz K, 1994. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences. Science 263, 641–646.
37. Pascual P, Stiber N, Sunderland E, 2003. Guidance on the Development, Evaluation, and Application of Regulatory Environmental Models. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
38. Peeler EJ, Murray AG, Thebault A, Brun E, Thrush MA, Giovaninni A, 2006. DIPNET-Risk assessment and predictive modelling-a review of their application in aquatic animal health. VESO-EC, Brussels. pp 67. ISBN-82-91743-61-4.
39. Philips Z, Ginnelly L, Sculpher L, Claxton K, Golder S, Roiemsma R, Woolacott N, and Glanville J, 2004. Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment. Health Technology Assessment, Vol. 8: number 36.
40. Picard N, Franc A, 2001. Aggregation of an individual-based space-dependent model of forest dynamics into distribution-based and space-independent models. Ecol. Modell. 145, 69–84.
41. Pielke RA Jr, 2003. The role of models in prediction for decision. In: Canham C, Lauenroth W. (eds), Understanding ecosystems: The role of quantitative models in observations, synthesis, and prediction. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J, 113–137.
42. Pielke RA Jr, Sarewitz D, Byerly R Jr, Jamieson D, 1999. Prediction in the earth sciences and environmental policy making. EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Society 80, 311–313.
43. Rothman KJ, Greenland S, 1998. Modern Epidemiology. Lippincott-Raven Publishers, Philadelphia.
44. Roughgarden J, Bergman A, Shafir S, Taylor C, 1996. Adaptive computation in ecology and evolution: A guide for future research. In: Belew, R.K, Mitchell, M. (eds), Adaptive individuals in evolving populations: models and algorithms. SFI Stuides in the Sciences of Complexity, vol. 26. Addison-Wesley Longman Publishing Co, Inc, Reading, 25–30.
45. Sato K, Iwasa Y, 2000. Pair approximations for lattice-based ecological models. In: Dieckmann, U, Law, R, Metz, J.A.J. (eds), The geometry of ecological interactions: Simplifying spatial complexity. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 341–358.
46. Schmolke A, Thorbek P, Chapman P, Grimm V, 2009. Ecological modelling and pesticide risk assessment: a review of current modelling practice. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. in press.
47. Scott ME, Smith G (Eds), 1994. Parasitic and Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Ecology. Academic Press.
48. Starfield AM, Smith KA, Bleloch AL, 1990. How to model it: problem solving for the computer age. McGraw-Hill, Inc, New York, St. Louis, San Francisco.
49. Thrusfield MV, 2005. Veterinary Epidemiology. Blackwell Publishing Professional, Ames, Iowa, USA.
50. Thulke H-H, Grimm V, 2010. Ecological models supporting management of wildlife diseases. In: Thorbek P, Forbes V, Heimbach F, Hommen U, Thulke H.-H, Van den Brink P.J, Wogram J, Grimm V. (eds). Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides. Developing a strategy for the future. Society of Environmental and Chemistry (SETAC) and CRC Press, Pensacola and Boca Raton (FL), 67–76.
51. Thulke H-H, Selhorst T, Müller T, Wyszomirski T, Müller U, Breitenmoser U, 2004. Assessing anti-rabies baiting-what happens on the ground? BMC Infectious Diseases, 4–9.
52. Tyul'ko ZS, Kuzmin IV, 2002. Simulation of rabies epizootic process in fox populations at a limited carrying capacity of biotopes. Russian Journal of Ecology 33, 331–337.
53. Wiegand T, Jeltsch F, Hanski I, Grimm V, 2003. Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application. OIKOS 100, 209–222.
54. Wilson WG, 1998. Resolving discrepancies between deterministic population models and individual-based simulations. The American Naturalist, 151, 116–134.