Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

Progress in Oceanography

Volumn 161, Issue , 2018, Pages 116-130

  Oliver, Eric C J ^a,b,c   Lago, Véronique ^a,b,d   Hobday, Alistair J ^d   Holbrook, Neil J ^a,b   Ling, Scott D ^a   Mundy, Craig N ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^c DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^d CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate variability; Extreme events; Ocean modelling; Self organising maps

Indexed keywords

AQUACULTURE; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATOLOGY; ECOSYSTEMS; GLOBAL WARMING; OCEANOGRAPHY; SELF ORGANIZING MAPS;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; DIMENSIONAL TEMPERATURES; EXTREME EVENTS; HIGH-RESOLUTION OCEAN MODEL; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; OCEAN MODELLING; STAKEHOLDER DISCUSSIONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 85042308038     PISSN: 00796611     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2018.02.007     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Agarwal, P., Skupin, A., Self-Organising Maps: Applications in Geographic Information Science. 2008, John Wiley & Sons.
2. Frusher, S.D., Hobday, A.J., Jennings, S.M., Creighton, C., D'silva, D., Haward, M., Holbrook, N.J., Nursey-Bray, M., Pecl, G.T., van Putten, E.I., The short history of research in a marine climate change hotspot: from anecdote to adaptation in south-east Australia. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 24:2 (2014), 593–611.
3. Garrabou, J., Coma, R., Bensoussan, N., Bally, M., Chevaldonné, P., Cigliano, M., Diaz, D., Harmelin, J.-G., Gambi, M., Kersting, D., et al. Mass mortality in Northwestern Mediterranean rocky benthic communities: effects of the 2003 heat wave. Global Change Biol. 15:5 (2009), 1090–1103.
4. Gibson, P.B., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Renwick, J.A., Projected changes in synoptic weather patterns over New Zealand examined through self-organizing maps. Int. J. Climatol. 36:12 (2016), 3934–3948.
5. Gibson, P.B., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Uotila, P., Pepler, A.S., Alexander, L.V., On the use of self-organizing maps for studying climate extremes. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmosph. 122:7 (2017), 3891–3903.
6. Green, T.J., Montagnani, C., Benkendorff, K., Robinson, N., Speck, P., Ontogeny and water temperature influences the antiviral response of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas. Fish Shellfish Immunol. 36:1 (2014), 151–157.
7. Hallegraeff, G.M., Ocean cliamte change, phytoplankton community responses, and harmful algal blooms: A formidable predictive challenge. J. Phycol. 46:2 (2010), 220–235, 10.1111/j.1529-8817.2010.00815.x.
8. Herzfeld, M., An alternative coordinate system for solving finite difference ocean models. Ocean Model. 14:3 (2006), 174–196.
9. Hobday, A.J., Alexander, L.V., Perkins, S.E., Smale, D.A., Straub, S.C., Oliver, E.C., Benthuysen, J.A., Burrows, M.T., Donat, M.G., Feng, M., et al. A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Prog. Oceanogr. 141 (2016), 227–238.
10. Hobday, A.J., Pecl, G.T., Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation action. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 24:2 (2014), 415–425.
11. Hobday, A.J., Spillman, C.M., Paige Eveson, J., Hartog, J.R., Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture. Fish. Oceanogr. 25:S1 (2016), 45–56.
12. Hodgkinson, J.H., Hobday, A.J., Pinkard, E.A., Climate adaptation in australias resource-extraction industries: ready or not?. Reg. Environ. Change 14:4 (2014), 1663–1678.
13. Hoffman, A.A., Sgro, C.M., Climate change and evolutionary adaptation. Nature 470 (2011), 479–485.
14. Holbrook, N.J., Bindoff, N.L., Interannual and decadal temperature variability in the southwest Pacific Ocean between 1955 and 1988. J. Climate 10:5 (1997), 1035–1049.
15. Hughes, T.P., Kerry, J.T., Álvarez-Noriega, M., Álvarez-Romero, J.G., Anderson, K.D., Baird, A.H., Babcock, R.C., Beger, M., Bellwood, D.R., Berkelmans, R., et al. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature 543:7645 (2017), 373–377.
16. Johnson, C.R., Banks, S.C., Barrett, N.S., Cazassus, F., Dunstan, P.K., Edgar, G.J., Frusher, S.D., Gardner, C., Haddon, M., Helidoniotis, F., et al. Climate change cascades: shifts in oceanography, species’ ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania. J. Exp. Marine Biol. Ecol. 400:1 (2011), 17–32.
17. Johnson, J.E., Holbrook, N.J., Adaptation of Australia's marine ecosystems to climate change: using science to inform conservation management. Int. J. Ecol. 2014 (2014), 1–12.
18. Johnson, N.C., How many ENSO flavors can we distinguish?. J. Climate 26:13 (2013), 4816–4827.
19. Kelly, M.W., Sanford, E., Grosberg, R.K., Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B: Biol. Sci. 279:1727 (2011), 349–356 .
20. Kohonen, T., The self-organizing map. Proc. IEEE 78:9 (1990), 1464–1480.
21. Kohonen, T., Self-Organizing Maps, vol. 30, 1995, Springer.
22. Last, P.R., White, W.T., Gledhill, D.C., Hobday, A.J., Brown, R., Edgar, G.J., Pecl, G., Long-term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20 (2010), 58–72.
23. Lenton, T.M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., Schellnhuber, H.J., Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105:6 (2008), 1786–1793.
24. Ling, S., Range expansion of a habitat-modifying species leads to loss of taxonomic diversity: a new and impoverished reef state. Oecologia 156:4 (2008), 883–894.
25. Ling, S.D., Johnson, C., Frusher, S., King, C., Reproductive potential of a marine ecosystem engineer at the edge of a newly expanded range. Global Change Biol. 14:4 (2008), 907–915.
26. Ling, S.D., Johnson, C.R., Frusher, S.D., Ridgway, K.R., Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106:52 (2009), 22341–22345.
27. Ling, S.D., Johnson, C.R., Ridgway, K., Hobday, A.J., Haddon, M., Climate-driven range extension of a sea urchin: Inferring future trends by analysis of recent population dynamics. Global Change Biol. 15:3 (2009), 719–731.
28. Ling, S.D., Scheibling, R.E., Rassweiler, A., Johnson, C.R., Shears, N., Connell, S.D., Salomon, A.K., Norderhaug, K.M., Pérez-Matus, A., Hernández, J.C., et al. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 370(1659), 2015, 20130269.
29. Metcalf, S.J., van Putten, E.I., Frusher, S., Marshall, N.A., Tull, M., Caputi, N., Haward, M., Hobday, A.J., Holbrook, N.J., Jennings, S.M., et al. Measuring the vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems: a prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations. Ecol. Soc., 20(2), 2015.
30. Mills, K.E., Pershing, A.J., Brown, C.J., Chen, Y., Chiang, F.-S., Holland, D.S., Lehuta, S., Nye, J.A., Sun, J.C., Thomas, A.C., et al. Fisheries management in a changing climate lessons from the 2012 ocean heat wave in the Northwest Atlantic. Oceanography 26:2 (2013), 191–195.
31. Nursey-Bray, M., Pecl, G.T., Frusher, S., Gardner, C., Haward, M., Hobday, A.J., Jennings, S., Punt, A.E., Revill, H., van Putten, I., Communicating climate change: climate change risk perceptions and rock lobster fishers, Tasmania. Marine Policy 36:3 (2012), 753–759.
32. Oke, P.R., Sakov, P., Cahill, M.L., Dunn, J.R., Fiedler, R., Griffin, D.A., Mansbridge, J.V., Ridgway, K.R., Schiller, A., Towards a dynamically balanced eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis: BRAN3. Ocean Model. 67 (2013), 52–70.
33. Oliver, E.C., Benthuysen, J.A., Bindoff, N.L., Hobday, A.J., Holbrook, N.J., Mundy, C.N., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nat. Commun., 8, 2017, 16101.
34. Oliver, E.C., O'Kane, T.J., Holbrook, N.J., Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate. J. Geophys. Res. 120:11 (2015), 7150–7165.
35. Oliver, E.C.J., Herzfeld, M., Holbrook, N.J., Modelling the shelf circulation off eastern Tasmania. Continent. Shelf Res. 130 (2016), 14–33.
36. Oliver, E.C.J., Holbrook, N.J., Extending our understanding of South Pacific gyre 'spin-up’: modeling the East Australian Current in a future climate. J. Geophys. Res. 119 (2014), 2788–2805.
37. Oliver, E.C.J., Lago, V., Holbrook, N.J., Ling, S.D., Mundy, C.N., Hobday, A.J., 2017b. Eastern Tasmania Marine Heatwave Atlas. Tech. rep., Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania. < http://metadata.imas.utas.edu.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/metadata.show?uuid=20188863-0af6-4032-98f8-def671cdaa58>.
38. Oliver, E.C.J., Wotherspoon, S.J., Holbrook, N.J., Projected Tasman Sea extremes in sea surface temperature through the 21st Century. J. Climate 27:5 (2014), 1980–1998.
39. Pecl, G.T., Ward, T.M., Doubleday, Z.A., Clarke, S., Day, J., Dixon, C., Frusher, S., Gibbs, P., Hobday, A.J., Hutchinson, N., et al. Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change. Clim. Change 127:3–4 (2014), 505–520.
40. Perry, A.L., Low, P.J., Ellis, J.R., Reynolds, J.D., Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. science 308:5730 (2005), 1912–1915.
41. Plagányi, É.E., Ellis, N., Blamey, L.K., Morello, E.B., Norman-Lopez, A., Robinson, W., Sporcic, M., Sweatman, H., Ecosystem modelling provides clues to understanding ecological tipping points. Marine Ecol. Prog. Ser. 512 (2014), 99–113.
42. Ridgway, K.R., Long-term trend and decadal variability of the southward penetration of the East Australian Current. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34(13), 2007, L13613.
43. Robinson, L.M., Gledhill, D.C., Moltschaniwskyj, N.A., Hobday, A.J., Frusher, S.D., Barrett, N., Stuart-Smith, J.F., Pecl, G.T., Rapid assessment of short-term datasets in an ocean warming hotspot reveals high confidence in potential range extensions. Global Environ. Change 31 (2015), 28–37.
44. Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Pan, H.-L., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Kistler, R., Woollen, J., Behringer, D., et al. The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91:8 (2010), 1015–1057.
45. Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer, D., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H.-y., Iredell, M., et al. The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J. Climate 27:6 (2014), 2185–2208.
46. Sanderson, J.C., 1990. M.Sc. Thesis: Subtidal Macroalgal Studies in East and South Eastern Tasmanian Coastal Waters. University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
47. Schlegel, R.W., Oliver, E.C.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Kruger, A., Smit, A.J., Predominant atmospheric and oceanic patterns during coastal marine heatwaves. Front. Marine Sci., 4, 2017, 323.
48. Serrao-Neumann, S., Davidson, J.L., Baldwin, C.L., Dedekorkut-Howes, A., Ellison, J.C., Holbrook, N.J., Howes, M., Jacobson, C., Morgan, E.A., Marine governance to avoid tipping points: can we adapt the adaptability envelope?. Marine Policy 65 (2016), 56–67.
49. Sloyan, B.M., O'Kane, T.J., Drivers of decadal variability in the Tasman Sea. J. Geophys. Res. 120:5 (2015), 3193–3210.
50. Spillman, C.M., Hobday, A.J., Dynamical seasonal ocean forecasts to aid salmon farm management in a climate hotspot. Climate Risk Manage. 1 (2014), 25–38.
51. Stuart-Smith, R.D., Edgar, G.J., Barrett, N.S., Kininmonth, S.J., Bates, A.E., Thermal biases and vulnerability to warming in the world's marine fauna. Nature, 528(7580), 2015, 88.
52. Valentine, J.P., Johnson, C.R., Establishment of the introduced kelp Undaria pinnatifida in Tasmania depends on disturbance to native algal assemblages. J. Exp. Marine Biol. Ecol. 295:1 (2003), 63–90.
53. Valentine, J.P., Johnson, C.R., Establishment of the introduced kelp undaria pinnatifida following dieback of the native macroalga Phyllospora comosa in Tasmania, Australia. Marine Freshwater Res. 55:3 (2004), 223–230.
54. van Putten, I., Metcalf, S., Frusher, S., Marshall, N., Tull, M., Fishing for the impacts of climate change in the marine sector: a case study. Int. J. Climate Change Strategies Manage. 6:4 (2014), 421–441.
55. Visser, M.E., Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B: Biol. Sci. 275:1635 (2008), 649–659 .
56. Wernberg, T., Bennett, S., Babcock, R.C., de Bettignies, T., Cure, K., Depczynski, M., Dufois, F., Fromont, J., Fulton, C.J., Hovey, R.K., et al. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem. Science 353:6295 (2016), 169–172.
57. Wernberg, T., Smale, D.A., Tuya, F., Thomsen, M.S., Langlois, T.J., De Bettignies, T., Bennett, S., Rousseaux, C.S., An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot. Nat. Climate Change 3:1 (2013), 78–82.
58. Wilks, D.S., Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2006, Academic Press.
59. Williams, R.N., de Souza, P.A., Jones, E.M., Analysing coastal ocean model outputs using competitive-learning pattern recognition techniques. Environ. Model. Software 57 (2014), 165–176.