Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

Nature Geoscience

Volumn 11, Issue 2, 2018, Pages 88-96

  Seneviratne, Sonia I ^a   Phipps, Steven J ^b,c   Pitman, Andrew J ^b   Hirsch, Annette L ^a   Davin, Edouard L ^a   Donat, Markus G ^b   Hirschi, Martin ^a   Lenton, Andrew ^d   Wilhelm, Micah ^a   Kravitz, Ben ^e  

^a ETH Zurich   (Switzerland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^d CSIRO   (Australia)

^e PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON EMISSION; GREENHOUSE GAS; GROWING SEASON; LAND MANAGEMENT; MITIGATION; RADIATIVE TRANSFER; RAINFALL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SOLAR RADIATION;

EID: 85041109704     PISSN: 17520894     EISSN: 17520908     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-017-0057-5     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
2. Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Knutti, R. & Wilby, R. L. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature 529, 477-4832 (2016).
3. Adoption of the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L. 9/Rev. 1 (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc. int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01. pdf
4. Crutzen, P. J. Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: A contribution to resolve a policy dilemma Clim. Chang. 77, 211-219 (2006).
5. Kravitz, B. et al. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Atmos. Sci. Lett. 12, 162-167 (2011).
6. MacMartin, D. G., Caldeira, K. & Keith, D. W. Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change. Philos. Trans. A 372, 0134 (2014).
7. Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty (The Royal Society, 2009); https://royalsociety. org/policy/publications/2009/ geoengineering-climate/
8. Ricke, K. L., Morgan, M. G. & Allen, M. R. Regional climate response to solar radiation management. Nat. Geosci. 3, 537-541 (2010).
9. Schäfer, S. et al. Field tests of solar climate engineering. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 766 (2013).
10. Barrett, S. et al. Climate engineering reconsidered. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 527-529 (2014).
11. Sillmann, J. et al. Climate emergencies do not justify geoengineering the climate. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 290-292 (2015).
12. IPCC Expert Meeting on Geoengineering (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) (IPCC, 2012).
13. Robock, A., Marquardt, A., Kravitz, B. & Stenchikov, G. Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L19703 (2009).
14. Ban-Weiss, G. A. & Caldeira, K. Geoengineering as an optimization problem. Environ. Res. Lett. 5, 034009 (2010).
15. Davin, E. L., Seneviratne, S. I., Ciais, P., Olioso, A. & Wang, T. Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111, 9757-9761 (2014).
16. Hamwey, R. Active amplification of the terrestrial albedo to mitigate climate change: An exploratory study. Mitig. Adapt. Strategies Glob. Change 12, 419-439 (2007).
17. Singarayer, J. S. & Davies-Barnard, T. Regional climate change mitigation with crops: context and assessment. Philos. Trans. A 370, 4301-4316 (2012).
18. Irvine, P. J., Ridgwell, A. & Lunt, D. J. Climatic effects of surface albedo geoengineering. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D24112 (2011).
19. Akbari, H., Menon, S. & Rosenfeld, A. Global cooling: increasing world-wide urban albedos to offset CO2. Clim. Change 94, 275-286 (2009).
20. Andales, A. A., Batchelor, W. D., Anderson, C. E., Farnham, D. E. & Whigham, D. K. Incorporating tillage effects into a soybean model. Agric. Syst. 66, 69-98 (2000).
21. Wilhelm, M., Davin, E. L. & Seneviratne, S. I. Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: An ESM sensitivity study. J. Geophys. Res. 120, 2612-2623 (2015).
22. Sacks, W. J., Deryng, D., Foley, J. A. & Ramankutty, N. A. Crop planting dates: An analysis of global patterns. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19, 607-620 (2010).
23. Cook, R. J. Toward cropping system that enhance productivity and sustainability. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 18389-18394 (2006).
24. Breuer, L., Eckhardt, K. & Frede, H.-G. Plant parameter values for models in temperate climates. Ecol. Model. 169, 237-293 (2003).
25. Hirsch A. L., Wilhelm, M., Davin, E. D., Thiery, W. & Seneviratne, S. I. Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming J. Geophys. Res. D026125 (2017).
26. Campra, P., Garcia, M., Canton, Y. & Palacios-Orueta, A. Surface temperature cooling trends and negative radiative forcing due to land use change toward greenhouse farming in southeastern Spain. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D18109 (2008).
27. Gaffin, S. R. et al. Bright is the new black-multi-year performance of high-albedo roofs in a urban climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 014029 (2012).
28. Mackey, C. W., Lee, X. & Smith, R. B. Remotely sensing the cooling effects of city scale efforts to reduce urban heat island. Build. Environ. 49, 348-358 (2012).
29. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision ST/ESA/SER. A/366 (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015); https://esa. un. org/unpd/ wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Report. pdf
30. Matthews, T. K. R, Wilby, R. L. & Murphy, C. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 3861-3866 (2017).
31. Oleson, K. W., Bonan, G. B. & Feddema, J. Effects of white roofs on urban temperature in a global climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L03701 (2010).
32. Mueller, N. D. et al. Global relationships between cropland intensification and summer temperature extremes over the last 50 years. J. Clim. 30, 7505-7528 (2017).
33. Thiery, W. et al. Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 122, 1403-1422 (2017).
34. Lawrence, D. M. et al. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design. Geosci. Model. Dev. 9, 2973-2998 (2016).
35. Sagan, C., Toon, O. B. & Pollack, J. B. Anthropogenic albedo changes and the Earth's climate. Science 206, 1363-1368 (1979).
36. Boisier, J.-P. et al. Attributing the impacts of land-cover changes in temperate regions on surface temperature and heat fluxes to specific causes: Results from the first LUCID set of simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D12116 (2012).
37. Pielke, R. A. Sr et al. Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence. WIREs Clim. Chang. 2, 828-850 (2011).
38. Brovkin, V. et al. Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century. J. Clim. 26, 6859-6881 (2013).
39. Davin, E. L. & de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. Climatic impact of global-scale deforestation: radiative versus non-radiative processes. J. Clim. 23, 97-112 (2010).
40. Kravitz, B. et al. An overview of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 8320-8332 (2013).
41. Lenton, T. M. & Vaughan, N. E. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, 5539-5561 (2009).
42. Singarayer, J. S., Ridgwell, A. & Irvine, P. Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 045110 (2009).
43. Lobell, D., Bala, G. & Duffy, P. Biogeophysical impacts of cropland management changes on climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06708 (2006).
44. Ridgwell, A., Singarayer, J. S., Hetherington, A. M. & Valdes, P. J. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering. Curr. Biol. 19, 146-150 (2009).
45. Crook, J. A., Jackson, L. S., Osprey, S. M. & Forster, P. M. A comparison of temperature and precipitation responses to different Earth radiation management geoengineering schemes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 9352-9373 (2015).
46. Keith, D. W. & MacMartin, D. G. A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 201-206 (2015).
47. Pitman, A. J. et al. Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: first results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L14814 (2009).
48. Morton, O. Crops that cool. Nature (15 January 2009); https://doi. org/10. 1038/news. 2009. 33
49. Smith, K. R. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 709-754 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
50. Lobell, D. B. et al. The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 497-501 (2013).
51. Lobell, D. B. et al. Greater sensitivity to drought accompanies maize yield increase in the U. S. Midwest. Science 344, 516-519 (2014).
52. Jones, A. et al. The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 9743-9752 (2013).
53. Caldeira, K. & Myhrvold, N. P. Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034039 (2013).
54. Trisos, C. H., Amatulli, G., Gurevitch, J., Robock, A. & Zambri, B. Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination. Nat. Ecol. Evol. (in press).
55. Field, C. et al. Technical Summary. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. et al.) 35-94 (IPCC, Cambridge University Press, 2014).
56. Foley, J. A. et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478, 337-342 (2011).
57. Phipps, S. J. et al. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1. 0. Part 1: Description and evaluation. Geosci. Model. Dev. 4, 483-509 (2011).
58. Phipps, S. J. et al. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1. 0. Part 2: Response to external forcings. Geosci. Model. Dev. 5, 649-682 (2012).
59. Seneviratne, S. I. et al. Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth Sci. Rev. 99, 125-161 (2010).
60. Vogel, M. M. et al. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 1511-1519 (2017).
61. Kravitz, B. et al. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results. Geosci. Model. Dev. 8, 3379-3392 (2015).
62. Anderson, G. B. & Bell, M. L. Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U. S. communities. Environ. Health Persp. 119, 210-218 (2011).
63. Sherwood, S. C. & Huber, M. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 9552-9555 (2010).
64. Zander, K. K., Botzen, W. J. W., Oppermann, E., Kjellstrom, T. & Garnett, S. T. Heat stress causes substantial labour productivity loss in Australia. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 647-651 (2015).
65. Impacts and Adaptation Response of Infrastructure and Communities to Heatwaves: The Southern Australian Experience of 2009 (National Climate Change Adaption Research Facility, Queensland Univ. Technology, 2010).
66. Doughty, C. E., Field, C. B. & McMillan, A. M. S. Can crop albedo be increased through the modification of leaf trichomes and could this cool regional climate Clim. Chang. 104, 379-387 (2011).
67. Derpsch, R., Friedrich, T., Kassam, A. & Hongwen, L. Current status of adoption of no-till farming in the world and some of its main benefits. Int. J. Agric. Biol. Eng. 3, 1-25 (2010).
68. Friedrich, T., Derpsch, R. & Kassam, A. Overview of the global spread of conservation agriculture. Field Actions Sci. Rep. http://factsreports. revues. org/1941 (2012).
69. Turmel, M.-S., Speratti, A., Baudron, F., Verhulst, N. & Govaerts, B. G. Crop residue management and soil health: A systems analysis. Agric. Syst. 134, 6-16 (2015).
70. Powlson, D. S. et al. Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 678-683 (2014).
71. Neufeldt, H., Kissinger, G. & Alcamo, J. No-till agriculture and climate change mitigation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 488-489 (2015).
72. Abdalla, M. et al. Conservation tillage systems: A review of its consequences for greenhouse gas emissions. Soil. Use Manag. 29, 199-209 (2013).
73. Jeong, S. J. et al. Effects of double cropping on summer climate of the North China Plain and neighbouring regions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 615-619 (2014).
74. Pittelkow, C. M. et al. Productivity limits and potential of the principles of conservation agriculture. Nature 517, 365-368 (2015).
75. Seifert, C. A. & Lobell, D. B. Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 024002 (2015).
76. Li, D., Bou-Zeid, E. & Oppenheimer, M. The effectiveness of cool and green roofs as urban heat island mitigation strategies. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 1-16 (2014).
77. Robock, A., Oman, L. & G. L. Stenchikov, G. Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO2 injections. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D16101 (2008).
78. MacMartin, D. G., Keith, D. W., Kravitz, B. & Caldeira, K. Management of trade-offs in geoengineering through optimal choice of non-uniform radiative forcing. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 365-368 (2012).
79. Tilmes, S. et al. The hydrologic impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. https://doi. org/10. 1002/jgrd. 50868 (2013).
80. Boyd, P. W. Ranking geoengineering schemes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 1, 722-724 (2008).
81. Hegerl, G. C. & Solomon, S. Risks of climate engineering. Science 325, 955 (2009).
82. Parson, E. A. & Keith, D. W. End the deadlock on governance of geoengineering research. Science 339, 1278-1279 (2013).
83. Tjiputra, J. F., Grini, A. & Lee, H. Impact of idealized future stratospheric aerosol injection on the large-scale ocean and land carbon cycles. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 121, 2-27 (2016).
84. Curry, C. L. et al. A multimodel examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 3900-3923 (2014).
85. Rogelj, J., McCollum, D. L., O'Neill, B. C. & Riahi, K. 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 405-412 (2013).
86. IPCC Summary for policymakers in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1-32 (IPCC, Cambridge University Press, 2014).
87. Lehner, F. & Stocker, T. F. From local perception to global perspective. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 731-735 (2015).
88. Schleussner, C. F. et al. Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 827-835 (2016).
89. IPCC Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (eds Field, C. B. et al.) (IPCC, Cambridge University Press, 2012).
90. Reichstein, M. et al. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle. Nature 500, 287-295 (2013).
91. Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Bellouin, N. & Stephenson, D. Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 660-665 (2013).
92. Edenhofer, O. et al. Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 33-107 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
93. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. https://doi. org/10. 1175/BAMS-D-11-00094. 1 (2012).
94. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), v3: Population Density Grid (SEDAC, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University, Accessed 30 August 2014); https://doi. org/10. 7927/ H4XK8CG2
95. Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J. Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 13, 997-1028 (1999).