Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources

Environmental Science and Policy

Volumn 79, Issue , 2018, Pages 1-8

  Kundzewicz, Z W ^a,d   Krysanova, V ^d   Benestad, R E ^b   Hov, O ^b   Piniewski, M ^c,d   Otto, I M ^d  

^a INSTITUTE FOR AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENVIRONMENT   (Poland)

^b NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Norway)

^c WARSAW UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES   (Poland)

^d POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Climate change impacts; Information; Modelling; Uncertainty; Water resources

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECOMPOSITION; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GAS; HYDROLOGY; PRECIPITATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOLAR RADIATION; VOLCANO; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER SUPPLY;

EID: 85032874983     PISSN: 14629011     EISSN: 18736416     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.008     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Aven, T., On how to deal with deep uncertainties in a risk assessment and management context. Risk Anal., 33(12), 2013, 10.1111/risa.12067.
2. Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Stoffel, M., Spyt, B., Janecka, K., Kaczka, R.J., Lempa, M., Paleoflood discharge reconstruction in Tatra Mountain streams. Geomorphology 272 (2016), 92–101.
3. Benestad, R.E., Nuccitelli, D., Lewandowsky, S., Hayhoe, K., Hygen, H.O., van Dorland, R., Cook, J., Learning from mistakes in climate research. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 126:3–4 (2016), 699–703, 10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5.
4. Beven, K., Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. Hydrol. Sci. J. 61:9 SI (2016), 1652–1665.
5. Bosshard, T., Carambia, M., Goergen, K., Kotlarski, S., Krahe, P., Zappa, M., Schaer, C., Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections. Water Resour. Res. 49 (2013), 1523–1536.
6. Box, G.E.P., Draper, N.R., Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces. 1987, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
7. Brodaric, B., Piasecki, M., Editorial: water data networks: foundations, technologies and systems, implementations, and uses. J. Hydroinf. 18:2 (2016), 149–151, 10.2166/hydro.2016.000.
8. Buytaert, W., Vuille, M., Dewulf, A., Urrutia, R., Karmalkar, A., Celleri, R., Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 14:7 (2010), 1247–1258.
9. Carter, T.R., Hulme, M., Key findings from the ECLAT-2 workshop representing uncertainties in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Cramer, W., Doherty, R., Hulme, M., Viner, D., (eds.) ECLAT-2 Workshop Report No. 2. Climatic Research Unit, 2000, UEA, Norwich, 10–14.
10. Ceola, S., Arheimer, B., Baratti, E., Blöschl, G., Capell, R., Castellarin, A., Freer, J., Han, D., Hrachowitz, M., Hundecha, Y., Hutton, C., Lindström, G., Montanari, A., Nijzink, R., Parajka, J., Toth, E., Viglione, A., Wagener, T., Virtual laboratories: new opportunities for collaborative water science. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19 (2015), 2101–2117, 10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015.
11. Doell, P., Jiménez-Cisneros, B., Oki, T., Arnell, N.W., Benito, G., Cogley, J.G., Jiang, T., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mwakalila, S., Nishijima, A., Integrating risks of climate change into water management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 60:1 (2015), 4–13, 10.1080/02626667.2014.967250.
12. Dankers, R., Arnell, N.W., Clark, D.B., et al. First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. PNAS 111:9 (2014), 3257–3261.
13. Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Chamorro, A., et al. An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins. Clim. Change 141:3 (2017), 401–417, 10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5.
14. Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., et al. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2014.
15. Funtowicz, S.O., Ravetz, J.R., Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy. 1990, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
16. Gosling, S.N., Taylor, R.G., Arnell, N.W., Todd, M.C., A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15:1 (2011), 279–294.
17. Goytia, S., Pettersson, M., Schellenberger, T., van Doorn-Hoekveld, W.J., Priest, S., Dealing with change and uncertainty within the regulatory frameworks for flood defense infrastructure in selected European countries. Ecol. Soc., 21(4), 2016, 23, 10.5751/ES-08908-210423.
18. Griggs, G.B., Paris, L., Flood control failures: San Lorenzo River, California. Environ. Manage. 6:5 (1982), 407–419.
19. Gupta, H.V., et al. Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: implications for improving hydrological modelling. J. Hydrol. 377 (2009), 80–91.
20. Höllermann, B., Evers, M., Perception and handling of uncertainties in water management—a study of practitioners’ and scientists’ perspectives on uncertainty in their daily decision-making. Environ. Sci. Policy 71 (2017), 9–18.
21. Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., et al. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. PNAS 111:9 (2014), 3251–3256.
22. Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Gosling, S.N., et al. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins. Clim. Change, 141, 2017, 561, 10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4.
23. Heltberg, R., Siegel, P.B., Jorgensen, S.L., Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: toward a ‘no-regrets’ approach. Glob. Environ. Change 19:1 (2009), 89–99.
24. IPCC, Annex II: glossary. Mach, K.J., Planton, S., von Stechow, C., Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K., Meyeri, L.A., (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, IPCC, Geneva, 117–130.
25. Jiménez Cisneros, B.E., Oki, T., Arnell, N.W., et al. Freshwater resources. Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Cambridge University Press, 229–269.
26. Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47:2 (1979), 263–292.
27. Katz, R.W., Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Clim. Res. 20:2 (2002), 167–185.
28. Knutti, R., Sedlácek, J., Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat. Clim. Change 3 (2013), 369–373.
29. Krysanova, V., Hattermann, F.F., Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts in 12 Large River Basins: Overview of Methods and Summary of Results. Climatic Change 141:3 (2017), 363–379 (accepted for publication).
30. Krysanova, V., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Piniewski, M., Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources, Chapter 148. Singh, V., (eds.) Handbook of Applied Hydrology, 2016.
31. Krysanova, V., Donelly, Ch., Gelfan, A., Gerten, D., Arheimer, B., Hattermann, F.F., Kundzewicz, Z.W., How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change. Hydrol. Sci. J., 2017 (submitted for publication).
32. Krysanova, V., Vetter, T., Eisner, S., Huang, Sh., Pechlivanidis, I., Strauch, M., Gelfan, A., et al. Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis. Environ. Res. Lett., 12(10), 2017, 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359 Article Number: 105002.
33. Kundzewicz, Z.W., Matczak, P., Climate change regional review: poland?. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 3:4 (2012), 297–311.
34. Kundzewicz, Z.W., Stakhiv, E.Z., Are climate models ready for prime time in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55:7 (2010), 1085–1089.
35. Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mata, L.J., Arnell, N., Döll, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Şen, Z., Shiklomanov, I., The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 53:1 (2008), 3–10.
36. Kundzewicz, Z.W., Krysanova, V., Dankers, R., et al. Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe—their causes and consequences for decision making. Hydrol. Sci. J. 62:1 (2017), 1–14, 10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398.
37. Lawrence, J., Reisinger, A., Mullan, B., Jackson, B., Exploring climate change uncertainties to support adaptive management of changing flood-risk. Environ. Sci. Policy 33 (2013), 133–142.
38. Lipshitz, R., Strauss, O., Coping with uncertainty: a naturalistic decision-making analysis. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 69:2 (1997), 149–163.
39. Lorenz, E.N., The Essence of Chaos. 1995, University of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington, USA 227+xii p.
40. Maidment, David R., Open water data in space and time. J. Am. Water Resou. Assoc. (JAWRA) 52:4 (2016), 816–824, 10.1111/1752-1688.12436.
41. Mastrandrea, M.D., Field, C.B., Stocker, T.F., et al. Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties., 2010, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
42. Matlin, M.W., Stang, D.J., The Pollyanna Principle: Selectivity in Language, Memory and Thought. 1978, Schenkman, Camrbidge.
43. Meinshausen, M., et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change 109:1–2 (2011), 213–241, 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z.
44. Mouratiadou, I., Biewald, A., Pehl, M., Bonsch, M., Baumstark, L., Klein, D., Popp, A., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: an integrated analysis based on the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environ. Sci. Policy 64 (2016), 48–58, 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.06.007.
45. Nakicenovic, N., Swart, R., (eds.) Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Geneva, Switzerland, UK 570 pp. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch.
46. Nearing, G.S., Tian, Y., Gupta, H.V., et al. A philosophical basis for hydrological uncertainty. Hydrol. Sci. J. 61:9 SI (2016), 1666–1678.
47. Pechlivanidis, I., Arheimer, B., Donnelly, C., et al. Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions. Clim. Change, 141, 2017, 467, 10.1007/s10584-016-1723-0.
48. Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E.L., et al. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. PNAS 111:9 (2014), 3262–3267.
49. Rajib, M.A., Merwade, V., Yu, Z., Multi-objective calibration of a hydrologic model using spatially distributed remotely sensed/in-situ soil moisture. J. Hydrol. 536 (2016), 192–207, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.037.
50. Refsgaard, J.C., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Drews, M., Halsnæs, K., Jeppesen, E., Madsen, H., Markandya, A., Olesen, J.E., Porter, J.R., Christensen, J.H., The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—a Danish water management example. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change 18 (2013), 337–359, 10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6.
51. Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., Breuer, L., et al. Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought charcteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins. Clim. Change 141:3 (2017), 435–449, 10.1007/s10584-016-1778-y.
52. Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., et al. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. PNAS 111:9 (2014), 3245–3250.
53. Smithson, M., Ignorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms. 1989, Springer Verlag, New York.
54. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., et al. (eds.) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Cambridge University Press.
55. Stakhiv, E.Z., Practical approaches to water management under climate change uncertainty. Savenije, H.H.G., Demuth, S., Hubert, P., (eds.) Hydrocomplexity: New Tools for Solving Wicked Water Problems, 2010, IAHS Press, IAHS Publ. 338, Wallingford.
56. Stoffelx, Markus, Wyzga, Bartlomiej, Marston, Richard A., Floods in mountain environments: a synthesis. Geomorphology 272 (2016), 1–9.
57. Trenberth, K., More knowledge, less certainty. Nat. Rep. Clim. Change, 4, 2010, 29, 10.1038/climate.2010.06.
58. Vetter, T., Reinhardt, J., Floerke, M., et al. Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins. Clim. Change 141:3 (2017), 419–433, 10.1007/s10584-016-1794-y.
59. von Storch, H., Zwiers, F.W., Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. 1999, Cambridge University Press.
60. Wilby, R.L., Dessai, S., Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather 65:7 (2010), 180–185.