Fail-safe and safe-to-fail adaptation: decision-making for urban flooding under climate change

Climatic Change

Volumn 145, Issue 3-4, 2017, Pages 397-412

  Kim, Yeowon ^a   Eisenberg, Daniel A ^b   Bondank, Emily N ^b   Chester, Mikhail V ^b   Mascaro, Giuseppe ^b   Underwood, B Shane ^c  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b AZ 85281   (United States)

^c North Carolina State University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH; DECISION MAKING; FLOODS; SAFETY FACTOR; WATER MANAGEMENT;

ADAPTATION SCENARIOS; ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCES; MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS; PRECIPITATION PATTERNS; RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES; STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL; URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; FLOOD CONTROL; FLOODING; INFRASTRUCTURE; MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS; STAKEHOLDER; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; URBAN AREA; VULNERABILITY;

ARIZONA; PHOENIX; UNITED STATES;

EID: 85032392947     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2090-1     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Ahern J (2011) From fail-safe to safe-to-fail: sustainability and resilience in the new urban world. Landsc Urban Plan 100:341–343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.02.021
2. Ahern J, Cilliers S, Niemelä J (2014) The concept of ecosystem services in adaptive urban planning and design: a framework for supporting innovation. Landsc Urban Plan 125:254–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.01.020
3. Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Fleischer HS (2009) Feasible adaptation strategies for increased risk of flooding in cities due to climate change. Water Sci Technol 60:273–281. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2009.298
4. Ashley RM, Balmforth DJ, Saul AJ, Blanskby JD (2005) Flooding in the future—predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas. Water Sci Technol 52:265–273
5. Blockley D, Agarwal J, Godfrey P (2012) Infrastructure resilience for high-impact low-chance risks. Proc Inst Civ Eng - Civ Eng 165:13–19. https://doi.org/10.1680/cien.11.00046
6. Brown DG, Polsky C, Bolstad P et al (2014) Ch. 13: land use and land cover change. Climate change impacts in the United States: the third national climate assessment
7. Chang H, Lafrenz M, Jung I, Figliozzi M (2011) Future flooding impacts on transportation infrastructure and traffic patterns resulting from climate change. Portland, Oregon
8. Chang SE (2016) Socioeconomic impacts of infrastructure disruptions. Oxford University Press
9. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kindom and New York, NY, USA
10. CIRIA (2014) Managing urban flooding from heavy rainfall—encouraging the uptake of designing for exceedance. Literature review
11. Dominguez F, Rivera E, Lettenmaier DP, Castro CL (2012) Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models. Geophys Res Lett 39:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050762
12. Eisenberg DA, Linkov I, Park J et al (2014) Resilience metrics: lessons from military doctrines. Solutions 5:76–87
13. FCDMC (2014) Flood control district of maricopy county. Storm report: Sep 8, 2014
14. Fratini CF, Geldof GD, Kluck J, Mikkelsen PS (2012) Three points approach (3PA) for urban flood risk management: a tool to support climate change adaptation through transdisciplinarity and multifunctionality. Urban Water J 9:317–331. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2012.668913
15. Garfin G, Jardine A, Merideth R et al (2013) Assessment of climate change in the southwest United States: a report prepared for the national climate assessment. Washington, DC
16. Hawkins GA, Vivoni ER, Robles-Morua A et al (2015) A climate change projection for summer hydrologic conditions in a semiarid watershed of central Arizona. J Arid Environ 118:9–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.02.022
17. Hunt A, Watkiss P (2011) Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature. Clim Chang 104:13–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9975-6
18. IPCC (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
19. Kaplan S, Garrick BJ (1981) On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Anal 1:11–27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x
20. Keath NA, Brown RR (2009) Extreme events: being prepared for the pitfalls with progressing sustainable urban water management. Water Sci Technol 59:1271. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2009.136
21. Kiker GA, Bridges TS, Varghese A et al (2005) Application of multicriteria decision analysis in environmental decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 1:95–108. https://doi.org/10.1897/IEAM_2004a-015.1
22. Kirshen P, Ruth M, Anderson W (2008) Interdependencies of urban climate change impacts and adaptation strategies: a case study of metropolitan Boston USA. Clim Chang 86:105–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9252-5
23. Liao K-H (2012) A theory on urban resilience to floods—a basis for alternative planning practices. Ecol Soc 17:15. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05231-170448
24. Linkov I, Bridges T, Creutzig F et al (2014) Changing the resilience paradigm. Nat Clim Chang 4:407–409. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2227
25. Liu W, Chen W, Peng C (2014) Assessing the effectiveness of green infrastructures on urban flooding reduction: a community scale study. Ecol Model 291:6–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.012
26. Meerow S, Newell JP, Stults M (2016) Defining urban resilience: a review. Landsc Urban Plan 147:38–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.11.011
27. Meyer MD, Brinckerhoff P, Rowan E et al (2013) Impacts of extreme weather on transportation: national symposium summary
28. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M et al (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319:573–574. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915
29. Möller N, Hansson SO (2008) Principles of engineering safety: risk and uncertainty reduction. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 93:798–805. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.031
30. National Research Council (U.S.) Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation (2008) Potential impacts of climate change on U.S. transportation. Wachington, D.C
31. National Weather Service Forecast Office (2014) NOAA online weather data. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=psr. Accessed 1 Jul 2016
32. Park J, Seager TP, Rao PSC et al (2013) Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems. Risk Anal 33:356–367. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885.x
33. Park J, Seager TP, Rao PSC (2011) Lessons in risk- versus resilience-based design and management. Integr Environ Assess Manag 7:396–399. https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.228
34. Piras M, Mascaro G, Deidda R, Vivoni ER (2016) Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin. Sci Total Environ 543:952–964. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.088
35. Revi A, Satterthwaite DE, Aragón-Durand F et al (2014) Urban areas. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
36. Rossman LA (2015) Storm water management model user’s manual. 1–353
37. Salinas Rodriguez CNA, Ashley R, Gersonius B et al (2014) Incorporation and application of resilience in the context of water-sensitive urban design: linking European and Australian perspectives. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Water 1:173–186. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1017
38. Sayers PB, Galloway GE, Hall JW (2012) Robust decision-making under uncertainty—towards adaptive and resilient flood risk management infrastructure. In: Flood risk. ICE Publishing, pp 281–302
39. Schmitt TG, Thomas M, Ettrich N (2004) Analysis and modeling of flooding in urban drainage systems. J Hydrol 299:300–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.012
40. Seager R, Ting M, Held I et al (2007) Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316:1181–1184. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601
41. Seager TP (2008) The sustainability spectrum and the sciences of sustainability. Bus Strateg Environ 17:444–453. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.632
42. Semadeni-Davies A, Hernebring C, Svensson G, Gustafsson L-G (2008) The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: combined sewer system. J Hydrol 350:100–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.05.028
43. Shortridge J, Guikema S, Zaitchik B (2017) Robust decision making in data scarce contexts: addressing data and model limitations for infrastructure planning under transient climate change. Clim Chang 140:323–337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1845-4
44. Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Duda MG et al (2012) A multiscale nonhydrostatic atmospheric model using centroidal Voronoi tesselations and C-grid staggering. Mon Weather Rev 140:3090–3105. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00215.1
45. Solecki W, Rosenzweig C (2014) Climate change, extreme events, and Hurricane Sandy: from non-stationary climate to non-stationary policy. J Extrem Events 1:1450008. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737614500080
46. Suarez P, Anderson W, Mahal V, Lakshmanan TR (2005) Impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: a systemwide performance assessment of the Boston Metro Area. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ 10:231–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2005.04.007
47. Transportation Research Board (2011) Adapting transportation to the impacts of climate change
48. Tye MR, Holland GJ, Done JM (2015) Rethinking failure: time for closer engineer–scientist collaborations on design. Proc Inst Civ Eng - Forensic Eng 168:49–57. https://doi.org/10.1680/feng.14.00004
49. Wilbanks TJ, Fernandez SJ (2014) Climate change and infrastructure, urban systems, and vulnerabilities. Island Press/Center for Resource Economics, Washington
50. Wilby RL, Dawson CW (2013) The statistical downscaling model: insights from one decade of application. Int J Climatol 33:1707–1719. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3544
51. Wilby RL, Dessai S (2010) Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather 65:180–185. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.543
52. Wilby RL, Keenan R (2012) Adapting to flood risk under climate change. Prog Phys Geogr 36:348–378. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133312438908
53. Willems P, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Olsson J, Nguyen VTV (2012) Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings. Atmos Res 103:106–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.04.003
54. Woods DD, Leveson N, Hollnagel E (2012) Resilience engineering: concepts and precepts. Ashgate Publishing, Ltd
55. Zevenbergen C, van Tuijn J, Rijke J et al (2013) Rijkswaterstaat room for the river. Tailor made collaboration: a clever combination of process and content