The flash flood of the Bisagno Creek on 9th October 2014: An “unfortunate” combination of spatial and temporal scales

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 541, Issue , 2016, Pages 50-62

  Silvestro, F ^a   Rebora, N ^a   Giannoni, F ^b   Cavallo, A ^b   Ferraris, L ^a,c  

^a CIMA RESEARCH FOUNDATION   (Italy)

^b Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell'Ambiente Ligure   (Italy)

^c UNIVERSITY OF GENOA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Catchment hydrology; Flash flood; Flood forecast; Probabilistic downscaling

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; FLOOD CONTROL; FLOODS; HYDROLOGY; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY; DOWN-SCALING; FLASH FLOOD; FLOOD FORECAST; PRECIPITATION PATTERNS; SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS; SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALE; TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS;

RAIN;

CATCHMENT; DOWNSCALING; FLASH FLOOD; FLOOD DAMAGE; FLOOD FORECASTING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; PEAK FLOW; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PROBABILITY; RETURN PERIOD; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; STREAMFLOW;

GENOA; GENOVA; ITALY; LIGURIA;

EID: 85031870359     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.004     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Alfieri, L., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., Ensemble hydro-meteorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland. J. Hydrol. 424–425 (2012), 143–153, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.038.
2. Amengual, A., Romero, R., Gomez, M., Martın, A., Alonso, S., A hydrometeorological modeling study of a flash-flood event over Catalonia, Spain. J. Hydrometeorol. 8 (2007), 282–303.
3. Amengual, A., Romero, R., Vich, M., Alonso, S., Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: application to a medium size basin of Mediterranean Spain. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13:6 (2009), 793–811.
4. Argence, S., Lambert, D., Richard, E., Chaboureau, J.P., Sohne, N., Impact of initial condition uncertainties on the predictability of heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean: a case study. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134 (2008), 1775–1788.
5. Barthlott, C., Kirshbaum, D.J., Sensitivity of deep convection to terrain forcing over Mediterranean islands. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139 (2013), 1762–1779.
6. Bartholmes, J.C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M.H., Gentilini, S., The European flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13 (2009), 141–153, 10.5194/hess-13-141-2009.
7. Bauer, S., A modified Horton equation during intermittent rainfall. Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 19 (1974), 219–229.
8. Bedrina, T., Parodi, A., Quarati, A., Clematis, A., ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12 (2012), 1961–1968.
9. Berenguer, M., Corral, C., Sanchez-Diesma, R., Sempere-Torres, D., Hydrological validation of a radar-based nowcasting technique. J. Hydrometeorol. 6 (2005), 532–549.
10. Boni, G., Ferraris, L., Giannoni, F., Roth, G., Rudari, R., Flood probability analysis for un-gauged watersheds by means of a simple distributed hydrologic model. Adv. Water Resour. 30:10 (2007), 2135–2144, 10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.08.009.
11. Borga, M., Accuracy of radar rainfall estimates for streamflow simulation. J. Hydrol. 267 (2002), 26–39.
12. Borga, M., Anagnostou, E.N., Bloschl, G., Creutin, J.D., Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project. Environ. Sci. Policy, 834–844, 2011.
13. Brandolini, P., Cevasco, A., Firpo, M., Robbiano, A., Sacchini, A., Geo-hydrological risk management for civil protection purposes in the urban area of Genoa (Liguria, NW Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Sci. 12 (2012), 943–959.
14. Brussolo, E., von Hardenberg, J., Ferraris, L., Rebora, N., Provenzale, A., Verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts via stochastic downscaling. J. Hydrometeorol. 9 (2008), 1084–1094.
15. Buzzi, A., Davoilio, S., Malguzzi, P., Drofa, O., Mastrangelo, D., Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria of autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 1 (2013), 7093–7135.
16. Chiew, F., McMahon, T., Application of the daily rainfall–runoff model MODHYDROLOG to 28 Australian catchments. J. Hydrol. 153 (1994), 383–416.
17. Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 375:3–4 (2009), 613–626.
18. Davolio, S., Silvestro, F., Malguzzi, P., 2015. Effects of increasing horizontal resolution in a convection permitting model on flood forecasting: the 2011 dramatic events in Liguria (Italy). J. Hydrometeor. (in press). http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0094.1.
19. Delrieu, G., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Nicol, J., Payrastre, O., Yates, E., Kirstetter, P.E., Andrieu, H., Ayral, P.-A., Bouvier, C., Creutin, J.-D., Livet, M., Anquetin, S., Lang, M., Neppel, L., Obled, C., Parent-du-Châtelet, J., Saulnier, G.M., Walpersdorf, A., Wobrock, W., The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard Region, France: a first case study for the Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory. J. Hydrometeorol. 6 (2006), 34–52.
20. Dickinson, R., The force-restore method for surface temperature and its generalization. J. Clim. 1 (1988), 1086–1097.
21. Diskin, M.H., Nazimov, N., Linear reservoir with feedback regulated inlet as a model for the infiltration process. J. Hydrol. 172 (1994), 313–330.
22. Faccini, F., Piccazzo, M., Robbiano, A., Natural hazards in San Fruttuoso of Camogli (Portofino Park, Italy): a case study of a debris flow in a coastal environment. Italian J. Geosci. 128 (2009), 641–654.
23. Ferraris, L., Rudari, R., Siccardi, F., The uncertainty in the prediction of flash floods in the northern Mediterranean environment. J. Hydrometeorol. 3 (2002), 714–727.
24. Fiori, E., Comellas, A., Molini, L., Rebora, N., Siccardi, F., Gochis, D.J., Tanelli, S., Parodi, A., Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: the Genoa 2011 case. Atmos. Res. 138 (2014), 13–29.
25. Gabellani, S., Silvestro, F., Rudari, R., Boni, G., General calibration methodology for a combined Horton-SCS infiltration scheme in flash flood modeling. Nat. Hazards Earth Sci. 8 (2008), 1317–1327.
26. Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A., Blaskovicova, L., Bloschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A., Daliakopoulos, I., Garcia, J., Irimescu, A., Kohnova, S., Koutroulis, A., Marchi, L., Matreata, S., Medina, V., Preciso, E., Sempere-Torres, D., Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., Tsanis, I., Velasco, D., Viglione, A., A compilation of data on European flash floods. J. Hydrol. 367 (2009), 70–78.
27. Giannoni, F., Roth, G., Rudari, R., A semi-distributed rainfall–runoff model based on a geomorphologic approach. Phys. Chem. Earth 25:7–8 (2000), 665–671.
28. Giannoni, F., Roth, G., Rudari, R., A procedure for drainage network identification from geomorphology and its application to the prediction of the hydrologic response. Adv. Water Resour. 28:6 (2005), 567–581, 10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.11.013.
29. Jasper, K., Gurtz, J., Lang, H., Advanced flood forecasting in Alpine watersheds by coupling meteorological observations and forecasts with a distributed hydrological model. J. Hydrol. 267 (2002), 40–52.
30. Krzysztofowicz, R., The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. J. Hydrol. 249 (2001), 2–9.
31. Laiolo, P., Gabellani, S., Rebora, N., Rudari, R., Ferraris, L., Ratto, S., Stevenin, H., Cauduro, M., Validation of the Flood-PROOFS probabilistic forecasting system. Hydrol. Process. 28 (2014), 3466–3481, 10.1002/hyp.9888.
32. Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., Sangati, M., Gaume, E., Bain, V., Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Pogancik, N., Comprehensive post-event survey of a flash flood in Western Slovenia: observation strategy and lessons learned. Hydrol. Process. 23:26 (2009), 3761–3770, 10.1002/hyp.7542.
33. Mascaro, G., Vivoni, E.R., Deidda, R., Implications of ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast errors on distributed streamflow forecasting. J. Hydrometeorol. 11 (2010), 69–86.
34. Massacand, A.C., Wernli, H., Davies, H.C., Heavy precipitation on the alpine southside: an upper-level precursor. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 (1998), 1435–1438.
35. Molini, L., Parodi, A., Siccardi, F., Dealing with uncertainty: an analysis of the severe weather events over Italy in 2006. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9 (2009), 1–13.
36. Patterson, G., Orszag, S., Spectral calculations of isotropic turbulence: efficient removal of aliasing interaction. Phys. Fluids 14 (1971), 2538–2541.
37. Provincial Authority of Genoa, 2001. River Basin Planning of the Bisagno Creek. < http://cartogis.provincia.genova.it/cartogis/pdb/bisagno>.
38. Rabuffetti, D., Ravazzani, G., Corbari, C., Mancini, M., Verification of operational Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) for a regional warning system – the AMPHORE case studies in the upper Po River. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 8 (2008), 161–173.
39. Rebora, N., Ferraris, L., Hardenberg, J.H., Provenzale, A., Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 6 (2006), 611–619.
40. Rebora, N., Ferraris, L., Hardenberg, J.H., Provenzale, A., The RainFARM: rainfall downscaling by a filtered auto regressive model. J. Hydrometeorol. 7:4 (2006), 724–738.
41. Rebora, N., Molini, L., Casella, E., Comellas, A., Fiori, E., Pignone, F., Siccardi, F., Silvestro, F., Tanelli, S., Parodi, A., Extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean: what can we learn from observations?. J. Hydrometeor. 14 (2013), 906–922.
42. Roth, G., et al. The STORM project: aims, objectives and organisation. Remote Sens. Rev. 14 (1996), 23–50.
43. Siccardi, F., Boni, G., Ferraris, L., Rudari, R., A hydro-meteorological approach for probabilistic flood forecast. J. Geophys. Res., 110, 2005, d05101, 10.1029/2004jd005314.
44. Silvestro, F., Rebora, N., Impact of precipitation forecast uncertainties and initial soil moisture conditions on a probabilistic flood forecasting chain. J. Hydrol. 519 (2014), 1052–1067.
45. Silvestro, F., Rebora, N., Ferraris, L., An algorithm for real-time rainfall rate estimation by using polarimetric radar: RIME. J. Hydrometeorol. 10 (2009), 227–240.
46. Silvestro, F., Rebora, N., Ferraris, L., Quantitative flood forecasting on small and medium size basins: a probabilistic approach for operational purposes. J. Hydrometeorol. 12:6 (2011), 1432–1446.
47. Silvestro, F., Gabellani, S., Giannoni, F., Parodi, A., Rebora, N., Rudari, R., Siccardi, F., A hydrological analysis of the 4th November 2011 event in Genoa. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12 (2012), 2743–2752, 10.5194/nhess-12-2743-2012.
48. Silvestro, F., Gabellani, S., Delogu, F., Rudari, R., Boni, G., Exploiting remote sensing land surface temperature in distributed hydrological modelling: the example of the Continuum model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17 (2013), 39–62, 10.5194/hess-17-39-2013.
49. Silvestro, F., Gabellani, S., Delogu, F., Rudari, R., Laiolo, P., Boni, G., Uncertainty reduction and parameter estimation of a distributed hydrological model with ground and remote-sensing data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19 (2015), 1727–1751, 10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015.
50. Todini, E., Ciarapica, L., The TOPKAPI model. Singh, V.P., et al. (eds.) Mathematical Models of Large Watershed Hydrology, 2001, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colorado (Chapter 12).
51. Verbunt, M., Walser, A., Gurtz, J., Montani, A., Schär, C., Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: selected case studies. J. Hydrometeorol. 8 (2007), 897–909, 10.1175/JHM594.1.
52. Versini, P.A., Berenguer, M., Corral, C., Sempere-Torres, D., An operational flood warning system for poorly gauged basins: demonstration in the Guadalhorce basin (Spain). Nat. Hazards 71 (2014), 1355–1378.
53. Vieux, B.E., Bedient, P.B., Assessing urban hydrologic prediction accuracy through event reconstruction. J. Hydrol. 299 (2004), 217–236.
54. Vincendon, B., Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., Vié, B., Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. 11 (2011), 1529–1544.
55. Wooding, R.A., A hydraulic modeling of the catchment-stream problem. 1. Kinematic wave theory. J. Hydrol. 3 (1965), 254–267.