Quantitative flood forecasting on small- and medium-sized basins: A probabilistic approach for operational purposes

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Volumn 12, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 1432-1446

  Silvestro, Francesco ^a   Rebora, Nicola ^a   Ferraris, Luca ^a,b  

^a CIMA Research Foundation   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GENOA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Flood events; Model evaluation performance; Operational forecasting; Probability forecasts models distribution; Statistical forecasting; Statistical techniques

Indexed keywords

BASIN ANALYSIS; CATCHMENT; FLOOD FORECASTING; HYDROMETEOROLOGY; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PROBABILITY; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RAINFALL; STREAMFLOW; WARNING SYSTEM; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ITALY; LIGURIA;

EID: 84858168643     PISSN: 1525755X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-10-05022.1     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Bacchi, B., A. Buzzi, G. Grossi, and R. Ranzi, 2002: Flood forecasting in a midsize catchment in the Southern Alps: Recent experiences on the use of coupled meteorological and hydrological models. Proc. Second Int. Symp. on Flood Defence, Beijing, China, IAHR, 965-972.
2. Bartholomes, J., and E. Todini, 2005: Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 333-346.
3. Boni, G., 2000: A physically based regional rainfall frequency analysis: Application to a coastal region in northern Italy. Proc. First PLINIUS Conf. on Mediterranean Storms, Maratea, Italy, European Geophysical Society, 365-376.
4. Boni, G., L. Ferraris, F. Giannoni, G. Roth, and R. Rudari, 2007: Flood probability analysis for un-gauged watersheds by means of a simple distributed hydrologic model. Adv. Water Resour., 30, 2135-2144.
5. Buzzi, A., M. Fantini, P. Malguzzi, and F. Nerozzi, 1994: Validation of a limited area model in cases of Mediterranean cyclogenesis: Surface fields and precipitation scores. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 53, 137-153.
6. Cloke, H. L., and F. Pappenberger, 2009: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review. J. Hydrol., 375 (3-4), 613-626.
7. Deidda, R., R. Benzi, and F. Siccardi, 1999: Multifractal modeling of anomalous scaling laws in rainfall. Water Resour. Res., 35, 1853-1867.
8. Diomede, T., and Coauthors, 2008: Discharge prediction based on multi-model precipitation forecasts. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 101, 245-265.
9. Ferraris, L., R. Rudari, and F. Siccardi, 2002: The uncertainty in the prediction of flash floods in the northern Mediterranean environment. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 714-727.
10. Ferraris, L., S. Gabellani, N. Rebora, and A. Provenzale, 2003: A comparison of stochastic models for spatial rainfall downscaling. Water Resour. Res., 39, 1368-1384.
11. Fundel, F., A. Walser, M. A. Liniger, C. Frei, and C. Appenzeller, 2010: Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited-area ensemble forecast system using reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 176-189.
12. Gabellani, S., F. Silvestro, R. Rudari, and G. Boni, 2008: General calibration methodology for a combined Horton-SCS infiltration scheme in flash flood modeling. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1317-1327.
13. Gabriele, S., and N.Arnell, 1991:Ahierarchical approach to regional flood frequency analysis. Water Resour. Res., 27, 1281-1289.
14. Giannoni, F., G. Roth, and R. Rudari, 2000: A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model based on a geomorphologic approach. Phys. Chem. Earth, 25 (7-8), 665-671.
15. Giannoni, F., G. Roth, and R. Rudari, 2003: Can the behaviour of different basins be described by the same model's parameter set? A geomorphologic framework. Phys. Chem. Earth, 28, 289-295.
16. Giannoni, F., G. Roth, and R. Rudari, 2005: A procedure for drainage network identification from geomorphology and its application to the prediction of the hydrologic response. Adv. Water Resour., 28, 567-581.
17. Krzysztofowicz, R., 2001: The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. J. Hydrol., 249, 2-9.
18. Lin, C., A. L. Wen, M. Bland, and D. Chaumont, 2002: A coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling study of the 1996 Ha! Ha! River basin flash flood in Québec, Canada. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1026, doi:10.1029/2001GL013827.
19. Maidment, D. R., Ed., 1992: Handbook of Hydrology. McGraw-Hill, 1424 pp.
20. Marsigli, C., F. Boccanera, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella, 2005: The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: Validation of the methodology and verification. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 12, 527-536.
21. Mascaro, G., E. R. Vivoni, and R. Deidda, 2010: Implications of ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast errors on distributed streamflow forecasting. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 69-86.
22. Rabuffetti, D., G. Ravazzani, C. Corbari, and M. Mancini, 2008: Verification of operational Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) for a regional warning system-The AMPHORE case studies in the upper Po River. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 161-173.
23. Ramos, M.-H., T. Mathevet, J. Thielen, and F. Pappenberger, 2010: Communicating uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts: Mission impossible? Meteor. Appl., 17, 223-235.
24. Rebora, N., L. Ferraris, J. H. Hardenberg, and A. Provenzale, 2006a: Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: A case study in the Mediterranean area. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 611-619.
25. Rebora, N., L. Ferraris, J. H. Hardenberg, and A. Provenzale, 2006b: RainFARM: Rainfall downscaling by a filtered autoregressive model. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 724-738.
26. Schaake, J. C., T. M. Hamill, R. Buizza, and M. Clark, 2007: HEPEX: The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1541-1547.
27. Siccardi, F., G. Boni, L. Ferraris, and R. Rudari, 2005: A hydrometeorological approach for probabilistic flood forecast. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D05101, doi:10.1029/2004JD005314.
28. Steppeler, J., G. Doms, U. Shättler, H. W. Bitzer, A. Gassmann, U. Damrath, and G. Gregoric, 2003: Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostaticmodel LM.Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 82, 75-96.
29. Taramasso, A., S. Gabellani, and A. Parodi, 2005: An operational flash-flood forecasting chain applied to the test cases of theEU project HYDROPTIMET. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 703-710.
30. Verbunt, M., A. Walser, J. Gurtz, A. Montani, and C. Schär, 2007: Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 897-909.
31. Zappa, M., S. Jaun, U. Germann, A. Walser, and F. Fundel, 2011: Superposition of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains. Atmos. Res., 100, 246-262, doi:10.1016/ j.atmosres.2010.12.005.