Projected increase in total knee arthroplasty in the United States – an alternative projection model

Osteoarthritis and Cartilage

Volumn 25, Issue 11, 2017, Pages 1797-1803

  Inacio, M C S ^a   Paxton, E W ^b   Graves, S E ^c   Namba, R S ^d   Nemes, S ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^b Kaiser Permanente   (United States)

^c Australian Orthopaedic Association Joint Replacement Registry   (Australia)

^d Department of Orthopedic Surgery ^*  (United States)

^e The Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Epidemiology; Incidence rates; Projections; Total knee arthroplasty

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; HOSPITAL PATIENT; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; POPULATION PROJECTION; POPULATION RESEARCH; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; TOTAL KNEE ARTHROPLASTY; UNITED STATES; ADULT; AGED; EPIDEMIOLOGY; FACTUAL DATABASE; FEMALE; FORECASTING; KNEE OSTEOARTHRITIS; KNEE REPLACEMENT; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; TRENDS; VERY ELDERLY;

ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; ARTHROPLASTY, REPLACEMENT, KNEE; DATABASES, FACTUAL; EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; LOGISTIC MODELS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; OSTEOARTHRITIS, KNEE; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 85028053463     PISSN: 10634584     EISSN: 15229653     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.joca.2017.07.022     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Pabinger, C., Lothaller, H., Geissler, A., Utilization rates of knee-arthroplasty in OECD countries. Osteoarthr Cartil 23:10 (2015), 1664–1673.
2. Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). Statistical Brief # 186, 2014 http://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb186-Operating-Room-Procedures-United-States-2012.pdf. (Accessed 16 September 2015)
3. Kurtz, S., Ong, K., Lau, E., Mowat, F., Halpern, M., Projections of primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States from 2005 to 2030. J Bone Jt Surg Am Vol 89:4 (2007), 780–785.
4. Kurtz, S.M., Ong, K.L., Lau, E., Bozic, K.J., Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021. J Bone Jt Surg Am Vol 96:8 (2014), 624–630.
5. Bashinskaya, B., Zimmerman, R.M., Walcott, B.P., Antoci, V., Arthroplasty utilization in the United States is predicted by age-specific population groups. ISRN Orthop, 2012, 2012.
6. Cram, P., Lu, X., Kates, S.L., Singh, J.A., Li, Y., Wolf, B.R., Total knee arthroplasty volume, utilization, and outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries, 1991–2010. JAMA J Am Med Assoc 308:12 (2012), 1227–1236.
7. Khatod, M., Inacio, M., Paxton, E.W., Bini, S.A., Namba, R.S., Burchette, R.J., et al. Knee replacement: epidemiology, outcomes, and trends in Southern California: 17,080 replacements from 1995 through 2004. Acta Orthop 79:6 (2008), 812–819.
8. Cross, M., Smith, E., Hoy, D., Nolte, S., Ackerman, I., Fransen, M., et al. The global burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis: estimates from the global burden of disease 2010 study. Ann Rheum Dis 73:7 (2014), 1323–1330.
9. Zhang, Y., Jordan, J.M., Epidemiology of osteoarthritis. Clin Geriatr Med 26:3 (2010), 355–369.
10. Weinstein, A.M., Rome, B.N., Reichmann, W.M., Collins, J.E., Burbine, S.A., Thornhill, T.S., et al. Estimating the burden of total knee replacement in the United States. J Bone Jt Surg Am Vol 95:5 (2013), 385–392.
11. Nemes, S., Gordon, M., Rogmark, C., Rolfson, O., Projections of total hip replacement in Sweden from 2013 to 2030. Acta Orthop 85:3 (2014), 238–243.
12. Nemes, S., Rolfson, O., W-Dahl, A., Garellick, G., Sundberg, M., Kärrholm, J., et al. Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden. Acta Orthop 86:4 (2015 Aug), 426–431.
13. Culliford, D., Maskell, J., Judge, A., Cooper, C., Prieto-Alhambra, D., Arden, N.K., et al. Future projections of total hip and knee arthroplasty in the UK: results from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Osteoarthr Cartil 23:4 (2015), 594–600.
14. Park, E.W., Lim, S.M., Empirical estimation of the asymptotes of disease progress curves and the use of the Richards generalized rate parameters for describing disease progress. Phytopathology 75:1 (1985), 786–791.
15. Overview of the National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample (NIS), HCUP Databases. Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP). 2016 https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/nisoverview.jsp. (Accessed 20 August 2016)
16. Colby, S.L., Ortman, J.M., Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Current Population Reports, P25-1143, 2014 http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf. (Accessed 20 August 2016)
17. Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), National Inpatient Sample (NIS). Trend Weights for HCUP NIS Data. 2015 https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/db/nation/nis/trendwghts.jsp. (Accessed 1 July 2015)
18. US Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates. 2016 http://www.census.gov/popest/. (Accessed 1 July 2015)
19. US Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections: Summary Tables. 2014 http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/summarytables.html. (Accessed 1 July 2015)
20. Muggeo, V.M.R., Estimating regression models with unknown break-points. Statistics Med 22 (2003), 3055–3071.
21. Christian R, Casella G. Monte Carlo Statistical Methods.
22. Liu JS. Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing. Springer.
23. Brown, L.D., Cai, T.T., DasGupta, A., Interval estimation for a binomial proportion (with discussion). Stat Sci 16 (2001), 101–103.
24. Losina, E., Thornhill, T.S., Rome, B.N., Wright, J., Katz, J.N., The dramatic increase in total knee replacement utilization rates in the United States cannot be fully explained by growth in population size and the obesity epidemic. J Bone Jt Surg Am Vol 94:3 (2012), 201–207.